Winning Ugly

[macsen rufus]

After reading the title I was a little disappointed this wasn't a thread about British babes...

but even so, I do believe that Iraq will have its full-blown civil war, the only question is when, and how many foreign (ie non-Iraqi) troops get caught in the crossfire. Sectarianism is an ugly thing, and will only lay down and learn to cooperate once the various parties get heartily sick of fighting. Amazing as it may be at this stage, it still seems some Iraqis still have an appetite for further violence. I'm sure the majority are ready to let bygones be bygones and get on with a normal life again, but of course its what minorities are doing that's the problem. I'm not claiming any great similarities, but ultimately it wasn't due to British military presence that the Irish troubles seem to be entering an end-phase now. BOTH sides - UK govt and the Republican movement accepted that there was no "military win" possible.

I don't really like the idea of this "ugly win" -- backing one side in the hope that it will serve the interests of an outside party. That's partly how Saddam become so entrenched in power. Back in the days of the Iran-Iraq war, lest anyone forget, certain outside parties (and I'm not just pointing at the US here, France and Britain were in there too) were happy to prop up Saddam and sell weapons etc when it looked like he was, if not our friend, at least our enemy's enemy. If anything, the "ugly win" is just resetting the clock on another disastrous "long-timescale lose". Better to let the local shake-down happen, withdraw any external scapegoats the locals can use to justify their sectarian violence, and see what emerges from the dust. I strongly suspect it won't be "Iraq" anymore, though.

[Tribesman]

Ahhh thank you tribesman you've presented an alternative in 08, This might be a nice out for the next president, not only can they blame Mr Bush for going in, but they can blame the Iraqi's for kicking us out.

Yeah but theres more ,the Badr boys are changing their parties name to reflect the situation as they see it .
Apparently there is no longer any need for an islamic revolution to make the State how they want it , they got it already .
I suppose thats what happens when you rush through writing an important document to meet a deadline and leave all the really important bits out . The really important bits are never going to be written now .

[Odin]

Yeah but theres more ,the Badr boys are changing their parties name to reflect the situation as they see it .
Apparently there is no longer any need for an islamic revolution to make the State how they want it , they got it already .
I suppose thats what happens when you rush through writing an important document to meet a deadline and leave all the really important bits out . The really important bits are never going to be written now .

Perhaps, but I am inclined to think that once we get the hell out of there the Kurds are going to pull some funny business in Kirkuk and set up thier own state (in practice, maybe not in name) eventually the sunni/shiite mess will play out with seperate states with a larger Iraq.

The worse part is having U.S. troops there and attempting to calm the place down just lets everyone else get thier ducks in a row, thier targets marked, and thier new leaders selected.


sadly the religious schisms prevent the political vacum from being filled, and we might need another dictator or two before we got something stable.

[Sir Moody]

Sadly it doesnt matter what we do or when we pull out there will be a civil war... tbh it seems like there allready is...

i would imagine this is what will happen

1)we finally pull out or are thrown out
2)in the south civil war breaks out openly with both sides trying to butcher the other
3)the kurds to the north fortify their land practically becoming their own state
4)Turkey invades northan iraq to stop the kurds
5)Iran invades the south under the guise of "ceaseing bloodshed" and there we have it northan iraq occupied by turkey southen iraq becomes part of greater iran...

the only way we can avoid this is to NOT pull out we need to practically occupy iraq for at least a decade to rebuild and calm the populace and we need to occupy it with 3 or 4 times the troops we have now ie conscription - there is imo no way we can avoid a civil war without massivly increasing our occupational forcesand not pulling out until we are sure the trouble has passed - we will never do that and so we may as well pull out now we have screwed it up enough allready

[Xiahou]

I don't see us being thrown out anytime soon- considering the Iraqi government is busy at the moment sending emissaries to the US and UK to convince our legislature not to push for a pullout.

[Sir Moody]

the current government maybe but come next election if we arnt allready out we may end up with a hardline government set on getting us out

[rotorgun]

the only way we can avoid this is to NOT pull out we need to practically occupy iraq for at least a decade to rebuild and calm the populace and we need to occupy it with 3 or 4 times the troops we have now ie conscription - there is imo no way we can avoid a civil war without massivly increasing our occupational forcesand not pulling out until we are sure the trouble has passed - we will never do that and so we may as well pull out now we have screwed it up enough allready

Nicley put Sir Moody. I am put in mind of the Roman occupation of Palestine during the Jewish Rebellion-The need to move in greater and greater force as the rebellion gained momentum and the Roman Syrian based legions came under attack. There were also several factions at odds with one another within the ranks of the Jewish insurgents, each vying for power and who would run the show after the Romans were defeated-a pipe dream in thier case.

The Romans solved this problem with a massive invasion of the region and eventual destruction of Jerusalem. Will the US be forced to do the same in order to save face? It is a conundrum that requires sober thought and wisdom-
qualities that seem to be lacking in either political party at this time.

"Cry HAVOC! And let slip the dogs of war!" Hamlet, William Shakespeare