George Bush = GOP Jimmy Carter?

[Zaknafien]

The appointment of a war czar four years after the invasion of Iraq has struck some as a late and insufficient response to the crisis, and has been a reminder that the Administration, ever since its halting response to Hurricane Katrina, has been judged harshly on questions of competence. Newt Gingrich is one of those who fear that Republicans have been branded with the label of incompetence. He says that the Bush Administration has become a Republican version of the Jimmy Carter Presidency, when nothing seemed to go right. “It’s just gotten steadily worse,” he said. “There was some point during the Iranian hostage crisis, the gasoline rationing, the malaise speech, the sweater, the rabbit”—Gingrich was referring to Carter’s suggestion that Americans wear sweaters rather than turn up their thermostats, and to the “attack” on Carter by what cartoonists quickly portrayed as a “killer rabbit” during a fishing trip—“that there was a morning where the average American went, ‘You know, this really worries me.’ ” He added, “You hire Presidents, at a minimum, to run the country well enough that you don’t have to think about it, and, at a maximum, to draw the country together to meet great challenges you can’t avoid thinking about.” Gingrich continued, “When you have the collapse of the Republican Party, you have an immediate turn toward the Democrats, not because the Democrats are offering anything better, but on a ‘not them’ basis. And if you end up in a 2008 campaign between ‘them’ and ‘not them,’ ‘not them’ is going to win.”

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...printable=true

[GeneralHankerchief]

W's presidency will certainly harm the GOP, but I don't think that it will be to the extent that Carter's hurt the Dems a generation ago.

- First of all, Bush is a lame duck. That means that the party isn't stuck with their punching bag running for re-election in 2008, so all candidates can feel free to distance themselves from Bush without fear. The Democrats did not have that luxury in 1980.

- Second, there is no clear opposition to the Republican platform. While Hillary is currently in the lead, she faces a strong challenge from Obama and a moderate threat in Edwards. The Democratic Party is deeply divided over whom they will choose, unlike 1980 when Reagan was pretty much assured the nomination after Iowa.

- Thirdly:

not because the Democrats are offering anything better, but on a ‘not them’ basis.

Reagan actually had an alternative in 1980 in the form of Reaganomics and a more aggressive foreign policy. While the Democrats certainly are offering their own options, they are not as clearly defined and thus will not attract as many voters.

Mostly, the Republican strength lies in my first point, or their front-runners' lack of association towards Bush. If he, Cheney, or someone closely affiliated with the current administration was running, the GOP would have a much tougher time. However, the three front-runners have been known to the public as mostly moderate candidates, no matter how much Romney and McCain are trying to appear more conservative. Therefore, they'll still have a shot come November 2008.

[KafirChobee]

Hanky, you maybe right about the GOP having a chance. Unless they bring up the same old tired knee jerk stuff they tend to fall back on to reinforce their 22% faithful. The present group of GOPist candidates seem to be same old thing - different day.

It is going to be much more difficult for McCain to distance himself from Bush, and the others as well. As I've said - their best bet is for Bush to withdraw the troops and blame the Dems for his failure. Not that many will buy it - but, repeat something often enough some will be dumb enough to buy into it. Rather than accepting the failed policy of a corrupt administration. It will also be difficult for them get americans to forget all the pork the GOP congress was feeding on (like bridges to know where).

Still, the Dems can beat themselves - so who knows. Zeus forbid.

[Lemur]

Unless they bring up the same old tired knee jerk stuff they tend to fall back on to reinforce their 22% faithful. The present group of GOPist candidates seem to be same old thing - different day.

Don't forget that they're still in the primaries, hence the torture applause lines and the insane talk about "doubling gitmo." They'll sing a different song once the primaries are over, and then a different one if/when they win. It's the same story every election cycle.