I'll start by saying how much I'm looking forward to this mod and hope you aren't sick of people saying that by now. In fact it's the only reason I bought M2TW at all, otherwise I'd have stuck with Rome.
Anyways, I was curious so tested a couple of scenarios, multiple times (too many to count after pulling out all those the figures but a fair number each), in an open field battle with no cover, no weather fx and in daylight. I picked a missile test mainly because it was easier to note.
60 man strong unit of archers, missile skill 6 and quality_bodkin_arrows, whatever that means; I assume ammo type has an effect but I'm clueless as to what it is.
vs
1) low defence unit 0,1,0 - casualty rate per volley between 4% and 15% (% based on number of archers, not number of targets, to fall in line with the way WH stats work in this regard)
2) low-medium defence unit 0,2,6 - casualty rate per volley between 1% and 18%
3) medium defence unit 5,2,6 - casualty rate per volley between 0% and 18%
4) (missile skill now improved to 10) low defence unit 0,1,0 - casualty rate per volley between 4% and 20%
Range does seem to have an impact, as I would expect, although there were also some pretty poor volleys at close range too, definately on parr with the lower hit rate longer ranged volleys. The 0% hits on the better defence unit was at longest range. Incidentally, range is a statistical consideration as well because you presumably want to time it in accordance with WH movement vs range. For example, the range used was 190 but I think the target was well within this as both units were at the edge of the deployment zone, facing one another. I was able to pop off between 7 and 11 volleys before the target closed to charge range (skirmish mode was off). That works out as a range of 28" to 44" in WH, given move 4". That'd be way too much but I thing the mod I use (Stainless Steel) made longbowmen higher range from vanilla. Still, I suspect even vanilla range is more than WH range.
Also note that the shield seems to have a significant impact on frontal volleys (impossible to get a unit to face the other away, not without using something else to engage it and thereby mess with the casualty count; not that wanted to do that or I wouldn't see the effect of a shield). In fact there was very little difference between damage vs the shield and that vs shield and armour but I suspect this is because I used a shield value of 6, the same as the missile skill (I used that simply because it was convenient) and extra armour didn't account for that much given the generally low damage anyway. The higher damage volleys were few and far between on the armoured tests btw, more aberations than reliable data, though obviously they did happen so cannot be discounted. Strangely, when they occured, they were higher than the highest damage vs an unarmoured target but I think I can explain that... the lower defence target was taking heavier damage on average and getting spread out as it advanced, thus making unit spacing increase and lower it's max damage sustained. If true then it adds another factor into the equation that cannot be accounted for 'on paper' very well.
Now, ignoring modifiers, what I would expect to see in a Warhammer game:
BS3 using S3 bow
vs
T3 unit in no armour - 25% casualty rate
T3 unit in light armour - 21% casualty rate
T3 unit in light armour + shield - 17% casualty rate
BS3 using S4 bow
vs
T3 unit in no armour - 33% casualty rate
T3 unit in light armour - 28% casualty rate
T3 unit in light armour + shield - 22% casualty rate
Clearly WH stats cannot be duplicated with any degree of certainty, at least not by me, and not without making the attack skill higher. I suspect even that would not help immensely because TW almost certainly uses more variables, it being a computer and not a guy with some dice ;)
The closest scenario to what one would expect in a WH game was using 10 missile skill vs to 1 defence (non-armour/shield) but we can't forget WH toughness. Since 3 is average for humans then using a value of 1 defence doesn't seem right ie, how can you simulate a toughness 2 unit? Making defence higher would mean making attack skill higher still, to give a comparable result. Not that I got comparable results to WH but you get the gist as the test showed roughly what needs to change in order to make it a better comparrison. As if we didn't already know that LOL. I don't think an accurate comparrison is possible though and that complicates any statistical conversion, even a loose one.
That said, I agree that there does not need to be an exact correllation when a starting point is all that's required. However, you cannot remove the arbitrary nature of whatever figures you come up with when you just go for an approximation. Take the point about WS, that it is used for both offence and defence in melee combat. Does anyone know if M2TW does the same? If it does then great, it'll compare better. If not then how do you rationalise a melee attack vs a missile attack conversion? If M2TW only uses defence to determine if something hits, not opposing attack skill (and it seems very likely that it does not), then how can you increase defence based on melee skill defence in WH because you are also increasing the unit's defence against missile attacks, thereby throwing off balance in the conversion because WS is not used to determine whether a missile weapon hits in WH. Increase missile skills to compensate? You can't because the defence bonus for WS will differ according to how much WS a unit has. WS3 got a +3 defence while WS4 got +6, ok, that's 3 or 6 defence higher that an arrow has to penetrate. You can increase missile skill to compensate but by how much, 3 or 6? Either way it'll be imbalanced as a straight conversion, if you see what I mean.
Also, don't forget that equal WS on attacker and defender always has the same chance to hit of 50% in WH so you'd need to know exactly how attack works against defence or risk getting it wrong. The point being that while you can certainly guess, well, you'd be guessing and back to square one. You may as well save yourself the headache and just use M2TW balance, either vanilla or some other guy's mod, as a base. Alternatively, stick with what you have already done, work with that and we can like it or lump it. You're the ones doing the work after all so while you may feel the need to explain, you do not need to justify it ;)
On to another point that I think is worth chewing over. WH is pretty simplistic in statistical variety. It has to be really, due to how it's played. There isn't much variation at all, with most units being within 1 point of each other, or 16%. All the stats are on a simplistic scale too, even when they vary more, as is the case with armour. The variety in the tabletop game comes mainly from army composition but in M2TW if I want to produce nothing but unit X then I can do that, at least without modifications to the way this works. If you played WH before the rules on army composition were invented then you'd know how much balance was affected by it and indeed, why it was invented. WH stats simply don't work to balance the game on their own.
Obviously I realise that the chances of you letting invincible stacks of 20 by you is remote but you may as well consider the whole WH balance now, as a whole, especially if you want to stick with a stat conversion basis. Doubtless you have also considered these possible solutions, even if not in this light, but I'll bring them up anyway. So, limiting certain units with greater cost and upkeep, perhaps disproportionate to what you'd initially think. It is well worth looking at army lists as well as stats for costs. You can also limit unit size, increase build times, postpone until later eras and assign certain units to an uncommon building (in the same way that Sherwood Archers are assigned to an improved Archery Guild) so as you can see, I'm thinking possitively
Bookmarks