I find it well and truely believable that someone brand new to the game could win on VH/VH. I don't think the 'military training' would be of awesome help either. On the combat side all you need to know is that flanking is good, and spears beat cavalry.At times its like the AI doesn't even realise this as they rush out their cav to charge your spears head on.

I don't find it terribly unbelievable that someone would abandon diplomacy and merchants and just go on their way to conquering. When my friend first played the game, I distinctly remember him getting his first merchant, moving it over to a resource and going '.... I get 5 gold a turn from this? The merchant cost 500. I am never ever building one of these again.'

And then with diplomats you have to physically move the damned things across the maps, and for what? Trade rights, and Alliances which for the most part are fairly worthless.

Seems only natural to me that a new player would just grab their armies and go a conquering. Its not hard to see "More cities = more gold + bigger armies to conquer more cities."