The following is my attempt to come up with a foundation model for a strategic decision making routine based upon relative power, using four neighbouring factions.
North (6) bordered by East (11) and West (12) total threat (23)
South (5) bordered by East (11) and West (12) total threat (23)
East (11) bordered by North (6) and West (5) total threat (11)
West (12) bordered by North (6) and West (5) total threat (11)
North and South cannot hope to survive an attack by either East or West and so must avoid any direct hostility towards their neighbours. However, were they to form an alliance they would significant reduce the overall threat posed by either East or West by creating a power block of (11).
Both East and West are reasonably confident of victory over either of their immediate neighbours North or South, but only if they can be sure that the other remains neutral and does not intervene. Therefore, they will be seeking some sort of alliance with either North or South which will ensure that they remain passive whilst a war is pursued against the other.
Both West and East need to increase their power base before their factions come into direct border contact, because whoever is the stronger at this point will be in the best position to win. Merely, annexing North or South will not ensure victory, unless you can also prevent the opposition to annexing the other smaller faction, the goal must be to secure one or both of the other factions whilst denying either to your main opponent.
Therefore, if East were to invade the North, then West must react immediately to protect the North either by forming an alliance with it, by moving troops into the North to counter the Eastern invasion unilaterally, or by persuading the South to launch a counter invasion of the East.
An alliance between West and South would produce a power block of (17) to oppose the Easts (11) which means that the East would need to break off hostilities with the North immediately and seek a ceasefire in order to prepare to meet the new threat. The most obvious counter to a West-South threat would be an alliance between East and North producing a power block of (17) to match that of the West-South alliance. The North currently has a power block(17) and a power (11) block to deal with and so has little option but to agree. If it doesn't the most likely result is an invasion by the West which has just succeeded in neutralising the threat from the South by allying with them. The only other option it has is to try and break the alliance between the West and South thus returning the situation to its initial state.
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