Iraq: "A War We Just Might Win"

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Actually, counterinsurgency doctrine would suggest that it is not possible to shoot the guerillas to make them stop. Not to say that patrols shouldn't shoot, or that extremists shouldn't die, but rather that without political reconciliation, victory is impossible.

I meant that sardonically, as in shooting everyone whose involved in the corruption would be impossible as it seems endemic -- whle killing insurgents is useful it is not, as you note, the basis for victory. I should probably have tried for clarity more than humor, please excuse.

To win, all a guerilla or insurgent has to do is not lose. To lose, all an occupier (or liberator, if you will) has to do is not win. It's a bad equation for the occupier, and the only way to change it is to deny the enemy support amongst the populace. And the only way to do that is to create a new political reality, something that cannot be accomplished by armed forces alone.

Agree with you absolutely as to the new "political reality." However, an insurgency must do much more than simply continue in order to win. They must continue long enough for the occupier to "take its marbles and go home" or they must develop the capability to defeat the occupier in the field. The occupier, on the other had, does not need to eradicate the insurgency -- close to impossible in terms of absolutes -- but to degrade the insurgency's ability to de-stabilize the nascent "political reality" that is being evoked. Endemic corruption can greatly slow the establishment of a new "political reality" and therefore make the job exceedingly difficult.