According to brandybarrel's FAUST (Faction And Unit Stat Tables), Noble and Chivalric knights are exactly the same, except Chivalric knights have a lower upkeep (250 instead of 320).
Lancers are exactly the same as Nobles, except that their defence is 11/5/0 instead of 8/5/4, and they get one armor upgrade at smith lvl 6, unlike Nobles and Chivalric, which get upgrades at lvl 4 and 5.
So, it seems the stats don't really point to any real difference whatsoever, except that Chivalric knights have a lower upkeep, and Lancers are more evenly armored.
Between Nobles and Chivalric knights, the choice is clear, assuming you have the proper stables. Lancers, in turn, are a very minor improvement, and their upkeep goes back up to 320.
Whee. ^_^
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