Pakistani politics

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Just read a blurb in the local paper today indicating that Musharreff [sic?] had most of the political opposition's leadership arrested and placed on 30-day detention...20 days before the next elections. Must help keep campaign expenses down.

As someone supportive of the USA's success, I am aware that a change in government at this juncture would NOT be likely to favor the USA's policy goals. Bit hard to think of this as the correct behavior for a democratic republic though....sigh.

It would be nice if our political world were morally consistent. Then again, maybe not, as I'm not at all sure that the level of morality that EVERYONE would adhere to would be all that high up the scale.

[KukriKhan]

The Reuters Story

Excerpt:

"We have detained 14 people as a preventive measure. They have given calls for protests and we have fears that they may create disturbances in the coming days," Islamabad's top administrator, Chaudhry Mohammad Ali, told Reuters.

Maybe they're just taking the purported bin Laden call for Jihad pre-election, seriously.

[Geoffrey S]

Just read a blurb in the local paper today indicating that Musharreff [sic?] had most of the political opposition's leadership arrested and placed on 30-day detention...20 days before the next elections. Must help keep campaign expenses down.

As someone supportive of the USA's success, I am aware that a change in government at this juncture would NOT be likely to favor the USA's policy goals. Bit hard to think of this as the correct behavior for a democratic republic though....sigh.

It would be nice if our political world were morally consistent. Then again, maybe not, as I'm not at all sure that the level of morality that EVERYONE would adhere to would be all that high up the scale.

Not likely to favour the US? Right now, the local population sees US support for their largely hated undemocratic president, who is doing very little to actually improve their life (what, 25% to military and some 5% for education?) and is in quite a bit of trouble when it comes to dealing with extremist Muslims. Whether supporting this dicator is morally reprehensible or not, US support to Musharraf is support for a sinking ship and it'd reflect well on US policymaker's skills if they acted on that.

[HoreTore]

As someone supportive of the USA's success, I am aware that a change in government at this juncture would NOT be likely to favor the USA's policy goals. Bit hard to think of this as the correct behavior for a democratic republic though....sigh.

Pakistan? Democratic Republic? Don't you need elections to call yourself a democracy? Musharraf has been a military dictator since he took control in a coup d'etat. That the US supports him simply shows the problem the US has in the middle east(and the rest of the world).

[Watchman]

Namely, they need all kinds of favours from assorted tinpot El Commandantes for various purposes.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Not likely to favour the US? Right now, the local population sees US support for their largely hated undemocratic president, who is doing very little to actually improve their life (what, 25% to military and some 5% for education?) and is in quite a bit of trouble when it comes to dealing with extremist Muslims. Whether supporting this dicator is morally reprehensible or not, US support to Musharraf is support for a sinking ship and it'd reflect well on US policymaker's skills if they acted on that.

Your point boils down to: Try thinking long-term as opposed to what's good only for this moment. A valid point. (and one with which I agree, at least in general).

Politicians in general, and US politicians in particular, are often not inclined toward long-term planning of any kind. Something about a two-year elections cycle.....

[Tribesman]

Your point boils down to: Try thinking long-term as opposed to what's good only for this moment.

Especilly when you consider the education Goeff talks about , the government has almost entirely given up its role in education . It passed the responsibility on to whoever had the money or intention ..nfortunately itis the rdical nuttersthat ahve both trhe money and intention to teach their own version of "education" .
Now OK the good genaral has made cosmetic attempts to curb the nutters hold on education ,but they are only cosmetic as he relies on the nutters to keep him in power

[macsen rufus]

I believe you are right to be concerned about the current state of affairs in Pakistan, there's been a lot of unsettling events recently, including these latest detentions, unseating the head of the judiciary etc. Certainly the sharks are circling, as for whatever reason, Musharaf's opponents seem to smell weakness or vulnerability at least. It is a glorious irony though that the West can make such a great play out of "democratising the Muslim world", yet were this ever to happen it is all our "friends and allies" in that world who would be the first to go - Musharaf and the Saud family being the most notable. I guess the Hashemite (Jordanian) royals are still fairly pro-western, but they have been incredibly quiet recently, so I don't know where they currently stand (probably very sensibly as out of sight as possible ).

Musharaf can only be described as a military dictator, for all he's making noises about quitting his military role to continue in the Presidency. That such a character is the most "western friendly" candidate in a narrow but growing field should worry us. He's barely kept the lid on the extremists, and I know that will be a contentious assertion, given that so many commentators accuse him of secret complicity with them. Much as I dislike dictatorships, I have bigger worries still about some of the other possible outcomes in what is after all a nuclear state. Whatever happens will be interesting, of that you can be sure (and possibly 'interesting' in the sense of the Chinese curse), as Pakistan is a divided society now, with a significant wealthy, westernised, secularised middle/urban class as well as a poor and pious rural majority. But of course, the big problem with democracy is you have to motivate and appeal to the sensibilities of the majority - and finding candidates who have no taint of past corruption/nepotism.

I think Imran Khan would stand a good chance, and possibly Benazir Bhutto - though he is probably a bit too islamist (for my tatse - it would play well to the crowd) and she has the corruption allegations against her. Khan also has the advantage of being well known outside Pakistan and outside politics. But this is just speculation on my part, I think there's also a chance of some unknown sweeping in from the left-field with a radically uncomfortable agenda.

[Geoffrey S]

He's barely kept the lid on the extremists, and I know that will be a contentious assertion, given that so many commentators accuse him of secret complicity with them.

Contentious indeed, but in my opinion more because I think he hasn't kept the lid on the extremists. He's been losing grip on them for a while now, first on the borders near Afghanistan, and nowadays more and more in the cities themselves judging by the importance played by radical madrassas. Only now it's clear he's failing in keeping the lid on extremists is he making sounds about ditching his military position; only because he seems to have realised he can't win that way, that his military position is more of a liabilty. More pretensions of democracic process is the only way he can hope for Western support should things go pear-shaped. I doubt the populace would fall for his promises by now.

A divided country in a large number of ways. And really, one I'm less happy about having nuclear weapons than Iran.

[Odin]

As someone supportive of the USA's success, I am aware that a change in government at this juncture would NOT be likely to favor the USA's policy goals. Bit hard to think of this as the correct behavior for a democratic republic though....sigh.

If the policy is to export free and fair elections then its a triumph for the Bush administration. We should happily encourage free elections in Pakistan, remove all military grants and domestic aid (remember the quake?) and instruct the new government they have 30 days to turn over bin laden (just like the taliban, if I recall).

Its a policy windfall for Bush, if infact his foriegn policy of free will, and capturing Bin Laden are to be believed, you buying it Seamus?

[Watchman]

...and instruct the new government they have 30 days to turn over bin laden (just like the taliban, if I recall).

And this minimally veiled threat would be backed up with what exactly ?

[Odin]

And this minimally veiled threat would be backed up with what exactly ?

1. Thousands of nuclear weapons

2. A willingness to use them

3. Sustained Air strikes from multiple carrier groups in hormuz (the likely mechanism).

4. Historical precident of willingness to excersise military options from the Bush admin (See: Afghanistan and Iraq)

5. Congressional support based on the notion that Pakistan has now become the headquarters of the taliban and al queda.

Those few come off the top of my head, that and my own personal notions (which are not mainstream) that should a friend harbor an enemy knowingly and willingly, then that friend infact is your worse enemy.

The ridiculous foriegn policy of the Bush admin has put us in such a mamoth hole that I dont see any other solution. Propping up foriegn governments under an exported notion of "freedom" discounts the populations will.

[Pannonian]

I think Imran Khan would stand a good chance, and possibly Benazir Bhutto - though he is probably a bit too islamist (for my tatse - it would play well to the crowd) and she has the corruption allegations against her. Khan also has the advantage of being well known outside Pakistan and outside politics. But this is just speculation on my part, I think there's also a chance of some unknown sweeping in from the left-field with a radically uncomfortable agenda.

Are you sure about Imran having a good chance? He's supposed to be fairly popular in the tribal areas where his family background gets him support, but he bombed in the last elections IIRC. It would be interesting if he gets into power though, as he's strongly Anglophile but gets most of his support from religious and tribal wackos. Could we establish friendly relations with an explicitly Islamist state, or are we mutually exclusive?

[Watchman]

1. Thousands of nuclear weapons

2. A willingness to use them

#1 exists; #2 doesn't, because even the twits in the Bush adminstrations aren't total lunatics.

3. Sustained Air strikes from multiple carrier groups in hormuz (the likely mechanism).

Against what exactly ? And would this be supposed to make the Pakistanis any more friendly to the US and any less so to anyone out to mess with it - such as Al-Qaeda ?

4. Historical precident of willingness to excersise military options from the Bush admin (See: Afghanistan and Iraq)

Thanks to which it is now an unpopular lame duck with grotesque budget deficit, acute shortage of soldiers, and a total bloody quagmire to remain stuck in for a while.

5. Congressional support based on the notion that Pakistan has now become the headquarters of the taliban and al queda.

And the Pakistani gov't is supposed to do what exactly about it anyway ? They de facto have no control over the border regions which are all but officially autonomous, and by what I understand of it, has only ever had with the sufferance of the mountain tribes.

[Odin]

[QUOTE=Watchman]

#1 exists; #2 doesn't, because even the twits in the Bush adminstrations aren't total lunatics.

Yes they are lunatics, nation building and exporting freedom to populations who dont want it is lunacy. Attacking an enemy with maximum force eliminates long term conflicts.

But again, im a minority voice, a lunatic if you will, I was one of the few who believed Kabul should have been made a nuclear fallout zone.

Against what exactly ? And would this be supposed to make the Pakistanis any more friendly to the US and any less so to anyone out to mess with it - such as Al-Qaeda ?

Targets in Pakistan. I dont care if they are more friendly or not. The goal isnt to make friends, the goal is to kill the enemy before he kills me. Of course of Bin laden and the gang decide to stop, then im all for it, but again, friendship with the host of an enemy hasnt bore any fruit yet. These guys are still out there planning and plotting, so why rely on someone else to eliminate the threat when you have the means yourself?

Thanks to which it is now an unpopular lame duck with grotesque budget deficit, acute shortage of soldiers, and a total bloody quagmire to remain stuck in for a while.

Agreed, the U.S. has not switched to a war time economy or footing. If bush had done that (a draft, additional tax levies) his rebuilding, export idea might have worked. Me? I have no intrest in foriegn deployments, Id close the bases in south korea, germany, iraq afghanistan and redploy those soldiers to the mexican border myself.

However, the U.S. population believes Bin laden and the boys are still a threat, and while bush has little creadability left, it would take one plane flying into the sears tower and were right back to post 9/11 nationalist sentiment.

And the Pakistani gov't is supposed to do what exactly about it anyway ? They de facto have no control over the border regions which are all but officially autonomous, and by what I understand of it, has only ever had with the sufferance of the mountain tribes.

The pakistani government has access to one of the best equipped, expirenced, and professional armies in that part of the world. What they should do about it is go into the tribal area's and kill al queda and the taliban, rather then make treaties with them to allow them autonomy.

[macsen rufus]

Are you sure about Imran having a good chance?

Well, if all the rest are still in exile or jail....

gets most of his support from religious and tribal wackos

This is indeed what is not to my "tatse" (sic -- can't be bothered editing it now....) and unfortunately what may well grow. Depends how far the "pious" are willing to go in ousting Musharaf - will they go the Bin Laden jihadist route, or the populist electoral best-bet?

As for relations with an islamist state, I think recent history has shown our* choice of friends to be much more "pragmatic" than principled. We don't seem to have any problem rubbing along with misogynistic, despotic Wahabbists, after all....

* 'our' meaning our governments'...

[Geoffrey S]

The ridiculous foriegn policy of the Bush admin has put us in such a mamoth hole that I dont see any other solution. Propping up foriegn governments under an exported notion of "freedom" discounts the populations will.

The population's will to nuclear fallout?

All sounds to me like trying to justify starting a thoroughly unethical war as a legitimate effort to prop up the failing credibility of the US government(s) ability to use maximum force, ie. to kill plenty of people to show you're to be taken seriously.

[Odin]

The population's will to nuclear fallout?

The populations will to self determination. Should they choose a government that allows terrorists to train to attack others, then nuclear fallout should be appart of thier consideration.

All sounds to me like trying to justify starting a thoroughly unethical war as a legitimate effort to prop up the failing credibility of the US government(s) ability to use maximum force, ie. to kill plenty of people to show you're to be taken seriously.

thats just it, when I offer my opinions it isnt based on what other people think, its based on simply military solutions. The U.S. was never meant to be a player in world affairs other then trade, we changed that, and now we need to change it back.

Attacking and destroying people who attacked us, with effiecent military capabilities limits our countries exposure to nation building, and export of ideaology. Two things I want nothing to do with.

[Husar]

The populations will to self determination. Should they choose a government that allows terrorists to train to attack others, then nuclear fallout should be appart of thier consideration.

That way we can easily end up with the US running around telling nations: "Oh, we'd like this candidate, but feel free to choose another one, we just might nuke you then..."
Then again, maybe that's exactly what you want, be the biggest kid on the playground and tell the others what to do and what not to do.

[Odin]

That way we can easily end up with the US running around telling nations: "Oh, we'd like this candidate, but feel free to choose another one, we just might nuke you then..."
Then again, maybe that's exactly what you want, be the biggest kid on the playground and tell the others what to do and what not to do.

You know better then that, you know I am an isolationist. I want nothing to do with foriegn governments and dictating to them how they should or shouldnt conduct thier business.

However in the cases of this thread we are talking about countries who are hosting people who have trained others to attack us, in that case, you bet your ass I advocate sharp, harsh and retaliation, or compliance with the request.

Remember the taliban could have turned over Bin laden, they didnt Husar and who's fault is that? Im no bully, and i believe the US has been on the wrong path internationally since the Spanish american war (see sig).

That said, should i wait and hope that these people dont attack again? Sure we could change policies(which I advocate) and make others happy, but that dosent eliminate the short term does it?

I am convinced that terrorists (the ones hiding in pakistan) are and will attempt to attack again, with bio, nuclear or whatever other extreme mechanism they can get there hands on.

I prefer to kill them before they kill me.

[Husar]

I didn't really think you want that Odin, though I wouldn't trust any politicians with it.

And blaming all Pakistanis for harboring some terrorists sounds like blaming all Amercans for harboring the KKK to me. Maybe Israel should nuke the US because the US is harbouring NeoNazis? I know it's extreme and not entirely comparable, but where do you draw the line? IMO you can't nuke a whole city because a few of the people in there support terrorists.

[Odin]

And blaming all Pakistanis for harboring some terrorists sounds like blaming all Amercans for harboring the KKK to me.

The blame is with the government, the people would have ample opportunity to turn over the terrorists or flee. Your point is fair, but I do believe mine has merit, I do not wish to sit and wait for someone else to remove someone who wants to kill me, considering I have a mechanism to do the job myself.

Maybe Israel should nuke the US because the US is harbouring NeoNazis?

Considering they dont have declared nuclear weapons thats highly unlikely.

However, if those neo nazi's had a track record of escelating attacks on israel, and a stated goal of destroying israel with the most grotseque means possible (chemical, nuke) I would hope israel would do all it could to eliminate the threat.

Again, this assumes an equal capability. I am able to put forth this solution because the U.S. can remove this threat without the host countries help, we simply choose not to.

I know it's extreme and not entirely comparable, but where do you draw the line? IMO you can't nuke a whole city because a few of the people in there support terrorists.

You draw the line with compliance. Sadly our foriegn policy has been so screwed up for years that its impossible to go back and undo the messess. If the taliban thought we might use nukes do you think they would have given up Bin laden? Do you think the population would have given him up first? Would Iraq have been necessary?

I watched 60 minutes last night they had an interview with ahmadinejad, and when asked about nuclear weapons he said:

"Because in political relations right now, the nuclear bomb is of no use. If it was useful, it would have prevented the downfall of the Soviet Union. If it was useful, it would have resolved the problems the Americans have in Iraq."

Source

He is correct, they are of no use unless 1. you are willing to use them, and 2. the other side believes you are willing to use them.

[Watchman]

Geh.

Nothing personal Odin, but I'm glad the wonks in Washington have a better grasp of strategy and political realities than you do.

[HoreTore]

Geh.

Nothing personal Odin, but I'm glad the wonks in Washington have a better grasp of strategy and political realities than you do.

I disagree with that. Odin's view of things is quite radical and contrary to the status quo, but that doesn't mean it's not valid. He disagrees with you. That's about it. He seeks a US that will not meddle in foreign affairs and remain neutral unless attacked, I honestly can't see anything that's not fair about that.

[AntiochusIII]

I disagree with that. Odin's view of things is quite radical and contrary to the status quo, but that doesn't mean it's not valid. He disagrees with you. That's about it. He seeks a US that will not meddle in foreign affairs and remain neutral unless attacked, I honestly can't see anything that's not fair about that.

He also thinks that Kabul should have been turned into a giant parking lot back in 2001.

From his own words.

Fallout 3, here we come!?

No thanks. I hate my life but not that much.

[macsen rufus]

If the taliban thought we might use nukes do you think they would have given up Bin laden?

Well, to be honest, no. They would have rubbed their hands in glee and said "Yes! 1,000,000 martyrs - surely the entire Islamic world will rise up and overthrow the Satan America if they do such a thing..." I don't expect rational actions from people who hold to an irrational belief system You can be sure they themselves and OBL would have quit the scene of impending carnage all the better to be able to stir up and exploit the inevitable outrage later.

[Watchman]

I disagree with that. Odin's view of things is quite radical and contrary to the status quo, but that doesn't mean it's not valid. He disagrees with you. That's about it. He seeks a US that will not meddle in foreign affairs and remain neutral unless attacked, I honestly can't see anything that's not fair about that.

Back in the day I argued fiercely enough with the forum's resident hawks to know what a view disagreeing from mine looks like. Odin's, in all honesty, just looks grossly irresponsible and callous, and patently fails to even try taking into account a considerable number of complications.

It is, in other words, basically knee-jerk brute-force populism. It is roughly analoguous to a kid who got picked on at the sandbox going to fetch his daddy's gun to shoot the other kid, "and then they'll be sorry and fear me and won't pick on me again"... if you see what I mean.

I can see a lot that's not fair, and more importantly sensible or grounded in reality, in that line of thinking.

[Odin]

I disagree with that. Odin's view of things is quite radical and contrary to the status quo, but that doesn't mean it's not valid. He disagrees with you. That's about it. He seeks a US that will not meddle in foreign affairs and remain neutral unless attacked, I honestly can't see anything that's not fair about that.

I had a dream Satan was having a snowball fight in hell with Dante.

[Odin]

Well, to be honest, no. They would have rubbed their hands in glee and said "Yes! 1,000,000 martyrs - surely the entire Islamic world will rise up and overthrow the Satan America if they do such a thing..." I don't expect rational actions from people who hold to an irrational belief system You can be sure they themselves and OBL would have quit the scene of impending carnage all the better to be able to stir up and exploit the inevitable outrage later.

then we have a core disagreement, I dont think the taliban wanted to loose power. I concede it would have created plenty of martyrs and radicals but the net result would have been huge street protests there.

There in lies the rub, they didnt believe we would use Nukes, no one believes we will (see quote from ahmadinejad). I have no desire to nuke anyone, or for that matter be at war with any country.

I personally would rather have a trade agreement with the afghans where they sell us all the opium they want. Sadly prior ridiculous foriegn policy decisions brought us to where we are now (its not all the U.S. fault either).

We have countries hosting people who will use nukes, or whatever else they can get thier hands on. Sadly we wont, and thats why in the end we will loose the war on terror because we arent able to muster and match the level of extremism that is being marshalled against us.

[Watchman]

Sadly we wont, and thats why in the end we will loose the war on terror because we arent able to muster and match the level of extremism that is being marshalled against us.

If we did, we'd very much deserve to lose. Because we'd be even worse than the other guys, having abandoned established enlightened values for convenience and expediency.

Happen to know Nietzsche's quip about fighting monsters ?