When is the next 9/11 going to happen ?

[Beirut]

Honestly, in terms of organisation the 9-11 attacks was extremely complex. It was not a couple of dozen guys with knives that happened to jump on some planes. Investigations have shown that the preparations took so long and involved so many threads, that if we had the level of intelligence awareness we have now, it would have been detected.

Indeed. The attacks required planning, communications, intelligence, and practice. But in the end, it was exactly that, a few guys with knives, who brought the whole thing to a close. You cannot disregard or underestimate an organization or enemy who managed to pull off an attack like that.

As Lemur pointed out, the likelihood of hijacking planes for suicide bombs is remote now. We have a much better idea of the modus operandi of our enemies. Not having aerial bombs reduces the targets available dramatically.

Agreed. But so many wars have begun so badly for people who were fully prepared to fight the last war. The next attacks, God forbid, could come from the other end of left field, and be just a surprising and just as destructive.

This does not mean however, that a bunch of nutters can't get fertiliser bombs onto a train and blow several hundred souls to glory. It does mean that if they are directed at all, and involve more than two or three close relatives, we are likely to rumble them first.

Agreed. But again, if they fought against the rules last time, odds are they will fight against the rules next time. I agree that the US has improved its defence against this sort of attack, but to say that this sort of attack, a strategic attack (which 9/11 was), cannot happen again is being very optimistic.

(Hey, wanna start a flame war? Could be fun. )