When is the next 9/11 going to happen ?

[Shahed]

Sorry to interrupt your entertainment but, is this supposed to be a bet...Are you betting on souls Sinan? For some reason I find this thread in a terrible bad taste.

Wow, I thought I'd read some bad jokes on this forum, specially in the back room, until I read this. Then I realised you weren't joking.

Of course it's not a bet.

I forgot - never argue with a writer.

All your points are valid, .....

Well all the points are not valid. BGs post assumes that paralysis or major disruption over time, is the objective of a 9/11. It is not, it is publicity. It's a big public victory is all that it is, for them.

[Shahed]

dbl post, consolidated above.

[Banquo's Ghost]

If our Intell guys are to be believed, that would be the hallmark of an AQ attack, no? The "message" being sent: "You are helpless to stop us attacking you anytime and anyplace we choose.", thus terrorizing the populace and goading them into spending their fortune, their manpower, and their freedom, in a fruitless attempt to quickly and definitively eliminate the threat.

Indeed. The question is, since attacking soft targets this way is very easy, why it hasn't happened? (On the US mainland).

Agreed. But again, if they fought against the rules last time, odds are they will fight against the rules next time. I agree that the US has improved its defence against this sort of attack, but to say that this sort of attack, a strategic attack (which 9/11 was), cannot happen again is being very optimistic.

I'm not contending that a terrorist attack against the USA cannot happen again. I'm saying that a 9-11 style spectacular is extremely unlikely. Since 9-11 is used as the benchmark to scare us into believing the War on Terror hype, we are making strategic errors in prosecuting that "war" and overestimating the abilities of the jihadists.

I may well be proven wrong. I want to make it clear however, that I am not advocating complacency because of my view, but vigilance against the correct enemy. Far from re-fighting the last war, urging us to realise the true nature of what we face - not what is politically expedient for frightening the populace.

Well all the points are not valid. BGs post assumes that paralysis or major disruption over time, is the objective of a 9/11. It is not, it is publicity. It's a big public victory is all that it is, for them.

Publicity is certainly an element, but there are many ways to achieve the publicity. And the victory is only granted by our own over-reactions to "terrorism". I repeat, the function of a terrorist is to cause terror. Publicity is a means to that end, but most acts of terror, large or small will generate disproportionate levels of publicity in societies with a free press.

(Hey, wanna start a flame war? Could be fun. )

OK. But we'll have to stop all that agreeing nonsense.

Here, I'll adopt the Celtic Tiger Method:

Bollox.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

With apologies to my esteemed compatriot.

[Rodion Romanovich]

(Hey, wanna start a flame war? Could be fun. )

Can I join too?

[KukriKhan]

Can I join too?

Only if you're making



Shrimp Flambe' for everyone.

[Shahed]

WOW ! That looks delicious !

[Mikeus Caesar]

I'm sorry, but my short attention span with regards to this thread has left me amazed at the speed with which it changed from discussion about predicting the next terrorist attack to shrimp flambe...

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'm sorry, but my short attention span with regards to this thread has left me amazed at the speed with which it changed from discussion about predicting the next terrorist attack to shrimp flambe...

Don't worry, the tangent is just a flash in the pan.

[Lord Winter]

Indeed. The question is, since attacking soft targets this way is very easy, why it hasn't happened? (On the US mainland).

I think its because the soft targets have been brought to them in afghanstan and Iraq. While we're no meeting bushes goal of wiping them out there we are instead doing the equivilent of sticking our head into the hornets nest to try to find the best way to stop those random stings. Instead we are meraly giving them easy targets and a better recuriting goal, but making it so that the most cost effective way is for them to fight on the home feild advantage.

[woad&fangs]

I'm sorry, but my short attention span with regards to this thread has left me amazed at the speed with which it changed from discussion about predicting the next terrorist attack to shrimp flambe...

You and me both

To get us back on topic I offer up this little blog post from Freakonomics and the subsequent replies from the readers.
Enjoy

I don't think that there will be a 9/11 scale attack in the US as long as we are in Iraq and for at least a year or two afterwards. After that it's anyones guess.

[Rodion Romanovich]

Only if you're making



Shrimp Flambe' for everyone.

Too bad I'm not much of a chef ~ Besides, who can flame and argue when there's nice food around

[ICantSpellDawg]

a single dirty bomb should do it. In fact, I'm suprised we haven't seen one yet.

[Vladimir]

a single dirty bomb should do it. In fact, I'm suprised we haven't seen one yet.

American Al-Queda:



(those are diapers)

The FBI is actually quite good if they're allowed to stop bad guys.

[Mete Han]

Greetings All !

I guess everyone is aware that the probability of at least one more 9/11 occuring on US soil is very high. So what's your guess to when it will happen ?

Please NOTE: I am referring to the scale of the attack. Not the methods.

If extremists in Pakistan come to power then they will have a nuclear arsenal in their command. I'm sure the US and the whole world actually do everything they can to stop them. Maybe the extremists cannot use nukes on American soil but countries like India and Israel would be under great threat. Ironic, considering the fact that Islamic extremism was funded by the US back in the 70's and 80's in order to counter Soviet threat. Now they are out of control, here in Turkey as well. Bhutto's and Musherref are American allies even though they compete with each other. It was Condaleeza Rice who encouraged Bhutto to return. The US would like Bhutto to take the power from Musherref but since Bhutto is no more then US will have to back the military government otherwise the scale of the next 9/11 will be catastrophic.

[Mete Han]

American Al-Queda:

(those are diapers)

The FBI is actually quite good if they're allowed to stop bad guys.

Dude how do you guys achieve to post pictures or whatnot like that? I tried a few times but couldn't do it. Okay I admit I can barely use the mouse.

[Geoffrey S]

Terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda are strongly bound to local Islamic conflicts due to the local nature of their recruits. Sure, they may have an ultimate goal of somehow spreading Islamist hegemony and taking down the perceived abstract obstacle in the form of the US in the process, but ultimately they're far more interested in taking political control of their homeland, or creating turmoil there in the process. In that sense Afghanistan was a risk as a safe haven, but it has been shown quite clearly how easy it is to remove fundamentalists from political power. In that sense I find the developments in Pakistan, and to some degree also Iraq worrying; and also the lack of attention given to conflicts in Africa, though that is a slightly different matter.

A problem is the so-called homegrown terrorists, to the attacks of whom Western nations are probably most vulnerable. Yet in those cases, far more control and surveillance can be exercised over the limited amount of mosques where recruitment takes place, and almost all large-scale attacks require assistance from more experienced Jihadists, often from outside or already monitored and greatly increasing the chance of detection. As has been said, the small group with homemade explosives can be a threat but they do not have the level of organization or skill to achieve something like 9/11, certainly not without detection.

So no, I don't think there'll be another 9/11 for quite some time. It'd require another combiniation terrorist safe haven (or also, a sympathetic governmental sponsor, of which there are still enough) and a number of screw-ups by intelligence services (which at least for the next decade I think they've learned from rather well). And I don't think any terrorist attack can ever have quite so much impact anymore on our civil liberties.

[Mete Han]

...but it has been shown quite clearly how easy it is to remove fundamentalists from political power....

Yeah, lkie Iran?!?!?

[Geoffrey S]

At least you can still negotiate with Iran, unlike the Taliban when they were in power. In the first place the Iranian leaders are very cunning politicians rather than crazed fundamentalists basing everything off some perverted ideology, and when push comes to shove they'll go for preservation of their own (and their nation's) power rather than gambling on a fruitful afterlife.

[HoreTore]

Continue to screw the world, and eventually, the world will screw back...

It really is only a matter of time. Rise and fall and all that.

[Fragony]

The west and the USA in particular will be hated anyway no matter what it does. This is a war.

[Mete Han]

The west and the USA in particular will be hated anyway no matter what it does. This is a war.

On the contrary ten years ago USA was worshipped in Turkey but now majority of the population dislikes USA. There are some factors which effects this. Back in the 70 the US was again hated in Turkey but after the military coup in 1980's there was great pro American propoganda. After the collapse of Soviets things started to change.

[Don Corleone]

Two years ago, I would have said "Any day now". But an honest consideration of the facts has me following the same line of thinking as Banquo. The simple fact that it hasn't come means that its unlikely to anytime soon. There's been no reason terrorists couldn't have struck us on the same magnitude as 9/11. Even one simple car bomb, in a crowded tunnel like the Holland Tunnel, would have us all whipped up into a frenzy. Maybe the FBI really are that good, but when I see just how easy it is for the hordes from Central America to cross the border, I have a hard time believing that the government is fully aware of each of their's crossing and making a choice to allow them in.

I said 4-6 years. I suspect that right now, Al-Queda is consumed with managing their affairs in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. It makes me believe that they actually want the fight that they have, which I find surprising. The only aim they've accomplished is to diminish the USA's reputation in the Muslim world. In exchange, they've lost large numbers of personnel at all levels, infrastructure, and even some influence of their own. They could have accomplished their goals with much less self-toxic methods.

However, eventually, the USA will withdraw from Iraq. Sometime after that, we'll withdraw from Afghanistan. And the cycle will begin anew. In many ways, Al-Queda (or Islamic fundamentalist terrorists in general) are like borderline sociopathic children. They act out and act out, craving attention, even negative attention, each incident worse than the last. Ignorning them just increases the intensity of the next outburst. And when we finally give them what they want, attention, in the form of an invasion, they're satisfied. But then we tire of the exchange and go back about what we were doing, and they're left feeling ignored all over again, which leads to...

Like I said, 4 to 6 years.

[Fragony]

On the contrary ten years ago USA was worshipped in Turkey but now majority of the population dislikes USA. There are some factors which effects this. Back in the 70 the US was again hated in Turkey but after the military coup in 1980's there was great pro American propoganda. After the collapse of Soviets things started to change.

To exist in an unstable world you will have to hurt others, just a matter of who is on the receiving end and you can't please them all. That is the continious reality for a power like the USA. Turkey is a funny place because it's so differemt from other islamic countries with it's secular history and religion is a factor, it's also fiercily nationalistic and will support whatever supports them, can never be more then a one night stand.

[Odin]

Whens the next 9/11 on U.S. soil? That would depend how long we intend to play games with the extremeists. Mr Bush and his cronies seem to think that indivdual liberties is the key to moderating Islam.

That may work for the majority, but Mr Bush's war on terror is against the minority and thats why the war will go on and on unless more force is used.

That being said its a matter of opportunity, who knows the actual time frame. The key component is there is a desire to have another 9/11 by extremists, could be tomorrow or next week, or 2015.

[Geoffrey S]

I suspect that right now, Al-Queda is consumed with managing their affairs in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. It makes me believe that they actually want the fight that they have, which I find surprising. The only aim they've accomplished is to diminish the USA's reputation in the Muslim world. In exchange, they've lost large numbers of personnel at all levels, infrastructure, and even some influence of their own. They could have accomplished their goals with much less self-toxic methods.

Generally I agree with your post, but here I wonder. How much damage has actually been done to Al-Qaeda, or similar terrorist organizations? Where the greatest damage appears to me to have been done is on a local level, among individual cells and Taliban or Iraqi insurgents rather than the more international-oriented terrorists who instigate conflict. I think they've lost a lot of communication options between the higher levels of organization, though not their ability to reach followers lower down the pecking order, but those they can pick up again if (when?) the pressure is lightened.

[KrooK]

I think it will be 11th Septermber EACH YEAR :P

[mrdun]

There will always be targets. There will always be plots. The truth is that the intelligence will be one step ahead. 9/11 was the turning point, security has tightened up now.

[Husar]

I think it will be 11th Septermber EACH YEAR :P

That has to be the only correct post in this thread.

[Odin]

That has to be the only correct post in this thread.

Yes, and alarmingly it came from Krook.

[Vladimir]

Yes, and alarmingly it came from Krook.

Excuse me. The question is "when" is the next 9/11, not if it's going to happen. I think last year it was on a Tuesday.