I am currently working on a campaign as Portugal. with back burners on France, Venice, and Milan.
Now this is just my opinion, but I am going to recommend France to you.
Why: Easy early expansion all around, including economic Power Houses, without having to step on any body's toes.
Rennes, Bordeaux, Dijon, Metz, Antwerp, Brussels, Zaragozza, Ajaccio. You can easily have all of these in the first 10 turns without having to declare war once. Further expansion is also quite possible into places like Bern, Ireland, Valencia, and Wales.
Also, if you ally and remain friendly with your neighbors, the only factions you'll probably have to worry about are Portugal and Milan, who are notorious, but small and easily overcome factions.
You also get the most attractive starting Daughter, who can cripple one of your opponents early on by stealing one of their Generals, such as Dietrich Von Saxony.
Anyway, just a thought.
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