I Concur with the first two, in fact I can even add to that list. however I must disagree with the third.
When the 1st Mongol wave arrived in my Turkish campaign they headed straight for my weakest settlement and took Mosul. After that they bypassed Edessa and headed for Aleppo but were destryed before getting there.
When the 2nd wave arrived, Baghdad just happened to be my weakest link and they took that before being wiped out again.
When the third wave arrived just outside Baghdad as they had every other time, only Yerevan was a weak province and that is exactly where they headed. Pity they did not make it though.(I have some good pictures from a battle I had at a bridge north of Mosul from this third wave which i intend on posting soon). In Summary, as opposed to having one specific target, I think the Mongol AI must calculate which is the easiest target and go for it.
Adding to that list.
4. For some reason, later Portugal always want Canaervon!? (They are 3 from 3 in my history)
5. Danish want Bruges.
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