Venezuela Sends Tanks To Colombian Border

[Tribesman]

I think it does a much better job of demonstrating what a twit Chavez is. He's really cruising for a bloodied nose. If he actually tries anything, I suspect he's going to see a lot of his expensive new toys all broken.

Funny isn't it , you could replace the word "Chavez" with "Bush" and it would be true .

You think Bush wants to be the leader-for-life of Iraq?

Did you notice the bit earlier where I said Chavez isn't stupid ? well Bush is , he did an action where his legacy will be getting the office trying to run Iraq for the forseeable future (or until the Iranians take the job on fully)

You think Uribe wants much more than to make Columbia a legitimate whole nation?

Interesting , Uribe wants a lot more than that , (I notice you avoid term limits in his case ) .
We shall see what Uribe really wants and how badly he wants it when the allegations of links to murder , drug trafficing , extortion , terrorism and kidnapping are sorted (not to mention very big election fraud) .I wonder if he will again claim that such things are no reason to step down from the job .
Come to think of it doesn't Uribe seem like a new Noriega sometimes .

[Quirinus]

Oh dear. They're FARCk-ed now.

/obviousjoke

[ICantSpellDawg]

Interesting , Uribe wants a lot more than that , (I notice you avoid term limits in his case ) .
We shall see what Uribe really wants and how badly he wants it when the allegations of links to murder , drug trafficing , extortion , terrorism and kidnapping are sorted (not to mention very big election fraud) .I wonder if he will again claim that such things are no reason to step down from the job .
Come to think of it doesn't Uribe seem like a new Noriega sometimes .

BS - he doesn't seem like a totalitarian hate-monger at all. I think that you are either misrepresenting him on purpose or just ignoring the reality.

Where are you getting this? That congressional modification was for re-election.

Uribe is not a bad guy at all. He enjoys broad popular support and seems to be interested in a more stable Columbia. I'm sure that he is prone to some level of corruption - like every politician in South America - but the idea that he needs to be overthrown and replaced with Chavez is insane.

***This just in - the U.S. can't support any center right leaders because people like Tribesman will claim that they it is as bad as supporting Saddam and the Taleban (which were egregious errors).

[Seamus Fermanagh]

For a dictator or -- as in the case of Chavez -- quasi dictator, it is important to remind yourself of their own internal motivations.

Remember:

1. Flaming socialist or not, Chavez is not stupid.

2. Chavez does wish to continue in power and to do so with the support of (a workking majority of) the masses and not simply through a military/police state -- he's thinking Cuba not Belorus or PRK.


So:

Until his troops violate the border AND stay across the line for more than a short raid, he's not committed to the kind of overt aggression that the USA and others must oppose. The USA is neither in a position to, nor would be able to generate a lot of support for, a large-scale U.S. response to a 72-hour border raid. Send a CBG nearby to show the flag, but that's about it. Verdict: little to risk for Chavez.

His referendum on permanent power was rejected. His biggest name ally has resigned due to ill health. Some of his support must have eroded and the external threat of US imperialism is not credible enough to motivate -- so Colombian excess/threat/inability to control the border is a ready made problem he can seem "decisive" in solving -- when did a little "machismo" image harm a S.A. politico? Besides, you have to get the tracks muddy once in a while for training anyway. Verdict: a nice little external threat -- especially where you don't HAVE to actually attack -- is a useful tool for the political strongman.

The kerfluffle might knock up oil prices a notch. Since most of the revenue Chavez uses to buy domestic political support is funded by the nationalized oil revenues, any further increase in price is unlikely to make Chavez sad. Verdict: oil prices waxing means domestic opposition waning for Hugo.

Messing with Colombia won't bother Chavez a bit. An unstable Colombia actually makes him seem safe & secure by comparison and it is Colombia that has the cozier relationship to the USA. Verdict: a little political hay can be made at the expense of El Norte -- and done on the cheap.


Therefore:

Chavez is still playing the international community to promote the cause of Chavez. This is just another round in the game. We'll see how much he gains and whether he can use the gains to get his referendum through this time. Chavez seems VERY interested in institutionalizing himself and his regime and THAT, I suspect, is the real game.