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Thread: Democrat 2020

  1. #361

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    It wasnt long ago that Rep. Tlaib led a Bernie rally in booing against Hillary Clinton. Hillary's comments aside (which I think are 100% true), a member of congress leading a chant against the former Dem nominee who is still very popular among the base doesnt really make me think that unity will come easily. Especially when after Iowa a number of other Reps like AOC and Omar go about spouting unsupported conspiracy theories about the DNC.

    And things are only going to get nastier I think.
    For my part I disagreed with most of Clinton's bellyaching and found it unhelpful, but look at it this way: a leadership contest is exactly when all a party's divisions should have their fullest expression. That's what this process is for! If we can't criticize each other now of all times then we never can, and that's not healthy. I'm pessimistic about a lot of things, but our ability to keep our eyes on the ball when the time comes is not one of them.

    About your national primary idea, that seems pretty interesting but logistically I can see it being a nightmare. Getting people to the polls once a month for 3 months is hard so turnout might be low.
    In New York, until a year ago it was the case that to vote in a party's primary you had to register with that party like 9 months beforehand. The recent NY electoral reform moved the registration deadline up to just 2 months - or at least, the deadline is Feb. 14 for the April 28 presidential primary; I don't know if there's a different deadline for the subsequent state/federal primaries. Speaking of which, last year's legislation finally consolidated the state and federal primaries on the same day. It also introduced same-day registration, early voting, and voting by mail.

    The point I'm making is that we can continue to progress in making voting easier at all levels, and streamlining the process so it is easier to understand and to keep voters informed of. Iowa-style dysfunction is not our destiny in this country; with a little effort we could have a navigable and responsive electoral system.

    (Also, we could just get rid of the national conventions entirely and nominate the winner of a ranked-choice popular vote.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    The system is a pastiche of the Roman Assembly, either deliberately or as a post-hoc justification. It's obviously not a democratic system so we have to conclude, it having been this way for so long, that it's not designed to be democratic. I would suggest the point is to wear down the candidates, so it has to be torturous and somewhat incoherent.
    The Framers explicitly designed an oligarchy, and distrusted most of the democratic features we take for granted today, let alone the ones we wish to implement.

    But don't be confused - the current primary system has only existed for about a century. Before then we had party conventions and national conventions that were more like the legendary "smoky room."
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  2. #362

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    There is no point in wearing down the candidates to this degree. We can spend 6 months leading up to the national primary voting day going back forth between all the candidates and then let the voters narrow it down for another 6 months between the top 2-3 candidates and decide at the convention.
    We don't need a year-long process. Hell no.

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    I would like Pete to win, but the outlook for Bernie after Iowa is pretty consistent across most states right now. Bernie would get a plurality but not anywhere near a majority. I've said this to you in our PM's a brokered convention after Iowa is highly likely and that Bernie will never win a brokered convention because the DNC is run by the 60% of neoliberals and moderates who would absolutely refuse to pick him.

    So to me, the best option is to vote for Bernie and increase his potential mandate at the brokered convention which will force the DNC to run a unity ticket that leans heavily progressive on certain issues. Otherwise they will risk having the progressive faction collapse at the general. I honestly like Pete more than Bernie and I align with him more on policy, but I can't let the DNC think they will win running to the middle again. We need both sides to unite otherwise the united right will continue to edge out with their rigged processes.
    This relies on a specific set of assumptions that I disagree with, particularly the ideas that that the DNC can control unpledged delegates, is interested in doing so, or that those delegates are somehow resolutely opposed to Sanders legitimacy be damned.

    A brokered convention is possible, and I don't know how likely it is at the moment - nor do you - but I wouldn't be surprised if a candidate consolidates for an outright win before then.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  3. #363

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    We don't need a year-long process. Hell no.



    This relies on a specific set of assumptions that I disagree with, particularly the ideas that that the DNC can control unpledged delegates, is interested in doing so, or that those delegates are somehow resolutely opposed to Sanders legitimacy be damned.

    A brokered convention is possible, and I don't know how likely it is at the moment - nor do you - but I wouldn't be surprised if a candidate consolidates for an outright win before then.
    It's already a 2 year process right now.

    I can only work off the info I have right now at this stage of the process. 538's model has brokered convention as #2. I think the odds go up based on polls from NH, Nevada and super tuesday states where bloomburg is gaining ground. It only splits delegates further.


  4. #364

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    It's already a 2 year process right now.
    Yes, this is the longest ever. Doesn't mean we need to start Christmas shopping in July either. We can change this schedule, these incentives, by altering the electoral process. An extended leadership or campaigning season is never desirable. I'm not insisting on having a mere month set aside like in some other countries, but certainly less than 6 months.

    What a waste of resources and life an extended campaign is. For what, so pundits can have an endless field day and partisan contractors like the Iowa-infamous Acronym can get their beaks wet?

    I can only work off the info I have right now at this stage of the process. 538's model has brokered convention as #2. I think the odds go up based on polls from NH, Nevada and super tuesday states where bloomburg is gaining ground. It only splits delegates further.
    As you know, the probabilities on display were all swapped once Iowa was factored in. The model is useful as fodder for future models. Right now it doesn't tell us that much because the parameters can change wildly with every vote on the advent calendar (at least through Super Tuesday).

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I'm just relieved whenever the fewer people I have to think about.
    When I said this, here's what I mean.

    NYT interview with Sanders and Warren on foreign policy.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    [QUOTE][/QUOTE=Sanders]
    1. Use of Force

    Presidents from both parties have taken an expansive view of their powers as commander in chief, deploying troops and ordering airstrikes without explicit congressional approval and, sometimes, without an imminent threat. The Democratic candidates frequently criticize such actions, but they have been less clear on the circumstances in which they would consider military force justifiable.
    Apart from responding to an attack on the United States or a treaty ally, what are the conditions under which you would consider the use of American military force?
    sanders's Answer

    Bernie's first priority is to protect the American people. Military force is sometimes necessary, but always — always — as the last resort. And blustery threats of force can often signal weakness as much as strength, diminishing U.S. deterrence, credibility and security in the process. When Bernie is president, we will ensure that the United States pursues diplomacy over militarism to bring about peaceful, negotiated resolutions to conflicts around the world. If military force is necessary, Bernie will make sure he acts with appropriate congressional authorization, and only when he has determined that the benefits of military action outweigh the risks and costs.

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    Would you consider military force for a humanitarian intervention?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    Would you consider military force to pre-empt an Iranian or North Korean nuclear or missile test?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    Would you consider military force to protect oil supplies?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    Is there any situation in which you could see yourself using American troops or covert action in a regime-change effort? If so, under what circumstances would you be willing to do that?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    Is it appropriate for the United States to provide nonmilitary support for regime-change efforts, as the Trump administration did in Venezuela?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    2. Iran

    In 2015, the Obama administration signed a deal with Iran that lifted sanctions in exchange for significant limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Many Republicans fiercely objected to the deal, saying it was not tough enough, and in 2018, President Trump abandoned it and reinstated sanctions. But Iran kept up its end of the agreement until last month, when Mr. Trump ordered the killing of a top Iranian general, Qassim Suleimani. The killing of General Suleimani brought the United States to the brink of war with Iran, which retaliated by attacking two military bases that American forces were using in Iraq.
    What would you do with the now-abandoned Iranian nuclear deal, as negotiated in 2015?
    sanders's Answer

    Bernie would re-enter the deal with no new preconditions, provided Iran is also meeting its commitments. He would then pursue wider talks to resolve issues of ballistic missiles, support for terrorist groups, and human rights.
    Do you believe President Trump acted within his legal authority in giving the order to kill Qassim Suleimani? Was the killing justifiable? Was it wise?
    sanders's Answer

    No. The U.S. is not at war with Iran, and Congress has not authorized any military action against Iran. Clearly there is evidence that Suleimani was involved in acts of terror. He also supported attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq. But the right question isn't "was this a bad guy," but rather "does assassinating him make Americans safer?" The answer is clearly no. Our forces are on higher alert because of this. We've sent even more troops to the region to deal with the heightened threat. And the Iraqi Parliament voted to kick our troops out, after we spent trillions of dollars and lost 4,500 brave soldiers there.

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    Regarding possible future military action against Iran, is there any type of response that is off the table for you?
    sanders's Answer

    Bernie would work with our European allies to de-escalate tensions with Iran and engage in aggressive diplomacy that would safeguard the security of the U.S. and our partners while preventing a disastrous war with Iran.
    What would your military strategy to deter Iran be? What would your diplomatic strategy be?
    sanders's Answer

    Bernie would work with our European allies to de-escalate tensions with Iran and engage in aggressive diplomacy that would safeguard the security of the U.S. and our partners while preventing a disastrous war with Iran.
    3. North Korea

    Dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program has long been an American priority, and President Trump has tried to do so through unusual means: direct diplomacy with the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un. It started in Singapore in 2018 but began to fall apart last February, when Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim emerged from a summit meeting in Vietnam empty-handed. In the interim, sanctions have remained, the North’s arsenal of weapons fuel and missiles has steadily expanded, and Mr. Kim recently threatened to resume missile tests.
    Would you continue the personal diplomacy President Trump began with Kim Jong-un?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    Would you tighten sanctions until North Korea has given up all of its nuclear and missile programs?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    Would you gradually lift sanctions in return for a freeze on fissile material development, as President Clinton attempted?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    Would you insist on substantial disarmament before relieving any sanctions?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    Would you agree to begin withdrawing American troops from the Korean peninsula?
    sanders's Answer

    No, not immediately. We would work closely with our South Korean partners to move toward peace on the Korean peninsula, which is the only way we will ultimately deal with the North Korean nuclear issue.
    Please describe your North Korea strategy further.
    sanders's Answer

    Every step we take to reduce North Korea's nuclear force, to open it up to inspections, to end the 70-year-old Korean War and to encourage peaceful relations between the Koreas and the United States increases the chances of complete denuclearization of the peninsula. Peace and nuclear disarmament must proceed in parallel, in close consultations with our South Korean ally. I will work to negotiate a step-by-step process to roll back North Korea's nuclear program, build a new peace and security regime on the peninsula, and work toward the eventual elimination of all North Korean nuclear weapons.
    4. Afghanistan

    The war in Afghanistan, begun after the Sept. 11 attacks, is the longest war in United States history, and documents released in December revealed that three successive presidential administrations misled the American people about the progress — or lack thereof — being made on the ground. That the United States should withdraw has become a rare point of agreement between President Trump and Democrats. But there are still significant disagreements over when, and under what conditions, that withdrawal should happen.
    Would American troops be in Afghanistan at the end of your first term? If so, would you limit those troops' mission to counterterrorism and intelligence gathering?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    Would American presence in Afghanistan be dependent on other nations contributing troops on the ground?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    How long do you envision American troops being required, in any numbers, in Afghanistan?
    sanders's Answer

    As president, Bernie would withdraw U.S. military forces from Afghanistan as expeditiously as possible. Bernie intends to have U.S. forces out of Afghanistan by the end of his first term. Our military has now been in Afghanistan for nearly 18 years. We will soon have troops in Afghanistan who were not even born on Sept. 11, 2001. It's time to end our intervention there and bring our troops home, in a planned and coordinated way combined with a serious diplomatic and political strategy which helps deliver desperately needed humanitarian aid. Withdrawing troops does not mean withdrawing all involvement, and my administration would stay politically engaged in these countries and do whatever we can to help them develop their economy and strengthen a government that is responsible to its people.
    5. Israel

    In Israel, a two-state solution — long viewed as the only workable end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — appears more distant than ever after President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embraced a plan that appeared to tilt the outcome in Israel’s favor. Mr. Trump’s decision in 2018 to move the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was deeply polarizing. So is the B.D.S. (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions) movement, which has grown increasingly prominent and which the House condemned in a bipartisan resolution last year.
    Should the United States maintain its current level of military aid to Israel? If not, how should the level of aid change?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes, but that aid can be conditioned on Israel taking steps to end the occupation and move toward a peace agreement.

    Bernie believes that U.S. aid should be conditioned on a range of human rights concerns. American taxpayers shouldn’t be supporting policies that undermine our values and interests, in Israel or anywhere. That’s why, when Bernie is president, he will use every tool at his disposal, including the conditioning of military aid, to create consequences for moves (such as settlements or annexation) that undermine the chances for peace.

    When we talk about conditioning aid, it's important to note that this isn't about singling out Israel, it's about acting in an even-handed way in the region and making sure that American tax dollars do not go to supporting human rights abuses by any country.

    Collapse Answer
    Do you support the B.D.S. movement? If not, should the president and/or Congress act to hinder it?
    sanders's Answer

    No. While Bernie is not a supporter of the B.D.S. movement, he believes that Americans have a constitutional right to participate in nonviolent protest.
    Should the United States Embassy in Israel be moved from Jerusalem back to Tel Aviv?
    sanders's Answer

    Not as a first step. But it would be on the table if Israel continues to take steps, such as settlement expansion, expulsions and home demolitions, that undermine the chances for a peace agreement.
    Should all Palestinian refugees and their descendants have the right to return to Israel?
    sanders's Answer

    The right of refugees to return to their homes after the cessation of hostilities is an internationally recognized right, but this issue will be negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians as part of a peace agreement.
    Do you support the establishment of a Palestinian state that includes West Bank land as demarcated by pre-1967 borders, except for longtime Israeli settlements?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes, if the settlement issue is negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians.
    If you answered yes to the last question, what will you do to achieve that where past administrations have failed? If you answered no, what solution do you envision to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
    sanders's Answer

    When it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, credible United States leadership is desperately needed. Bernie is a strong supporter of the right of Israel to exist in independence, peace and security. But he also believes that the United States needs to engage in an even-handed approach toward that longstanding conflict, which results in ending the Israeli occupation and enabling the Palestinian people to have independence and self-determination in a sovereign, independent, economically viable state of their own. In his view, that end result would be in the best interests of Israel, the Palestinian people, the United States and the entire region.

    The parameters of a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are well known. They are based in international law, in multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, and are supported by an overwhelming international consensus: two states based on the 1967 lines, with Jerusalem as the capital of both states. Ultimately, it's up to the Palestinians and Israelis themselves to make the choices necessary for a final agreement, but the United States has a major role to play in brokering that agreement.

    As president, Bernie will put real pressure on both sides, including conditioning aid. The U.S. gives a lot of aid to both Israel and the Palestinians, and it's totally appropriate to withhold that aid when they do things we don't like.

    When we are in the White House, we will restore funds to U.N.R.W.A., a major element of U.S. efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Bernie will call upon Israel to end policies that violate international humanitarian law, such as home demolitions and settlement construction in the occupied territories, and work to ensure that U.S. aid is not used to support these activities. Bernie will also continue to condemn violence against civilians by all sides.

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    6. Russia

    Russia has been a deeply destabilizing force on the world stage for several years, including through its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and its meddling in the United States’ 2016 presidential election. After it annexed Crimea, it was suspended from the Group of Eight bloc of industrialized nations (now, in Russia’s absence, the Group of Seven). But President Trump has pushed to readmit Russia to the G-7 and has held several meetings with President Vladimir Putin, the contents of which have not been disclosed.
    If Russia continues on its current course in Ukraine and other former Soviet states, should the United States regard it as an adversary, or even an enemy?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    Should Russia be required to return Crimea to Ukraine before it is allowed back into the G-7?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    7. China

    The Chinese government has been systematically persecuting Muslim minorities: separating families, subjecting Uighurs and Kazakhs to forced labor and operating internment camps. It is also embroiled in a political crisis over Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China. At the same time, President Trump has taken a hard line on trade with China, imposing economically damaging tariffs. Last month, the United States and China signed an initial trade deal.
    Should respect for Hong Kong’s political independence, under the terms of the handover agreement with Britain, be a prerequisite for normal relations and trade with China?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    Should normal relations and trade be contingent on China’s closing its internment camps for Uighurs and other Muslim minority groups?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    8. NATO

    The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance among 29 North American and European countries, has been a linchpin of the United States’ foreign policy for decades. But President Trump has often criticized the alliance, arguing that the United States gives too much and gets too little from it. During his 2016 campaign, he refused to commit to NATO’s central pledge — defending other members if they are attacked — if the members in question had not met their spending commitments, and aides say that in 2018, he repeatedly suggested withdrawing. Last year, NATO agreed to reduce the United States’ contribution and increase Germany’s.
    Should NATO nations pay more for defense than their current commitment of at least 2 percent of G.D.P.?
    sanders's Answer

    No.
    Should nations that do not fulfill their NATO funding commitment still receive an assurance of United States aid if they are attacked?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    9. Cyber Policy

    Cyber weaponry has emerged as the primary way nations compete with and undercut each other in short-of-war conflict. Yet there are few international rules that govern the daily battles — or prevent escalation. As a shadow war emerges in cyberspace, President Trump has given far more powers to the United States Cyber Command and the National Security Agency.
    Should a presidential order be required to launch a cyber strike against another country, just as it is required to launch a nuclear strike?
    sanders's Answer

    Yes.
    The United States Cyber Command’s new strategy is “persistent engagement,” meaning the U.S. goes deep inside foreign computer networks to constantly engage with adversaries and dissuade strikes on the United States. Would you continue this policy?
    sanders's Answer

    Bernie would undertake a comprehensive review of U.S. cyber strategy and work to bring countries together around international conventions to control the use of these dangerous weapons.
    If you answered yes to the last question, would you nevertheless insist that other nations pursuing “persistent engagement” could not be inside American power grids and other critical infrastructure?
    sanders's Answer

    Not applicable.
    10. National Security Strategy

    In the post-Cold War era — and especially after the Sept. 11 attacks — the focal point of American foreign policy moved to counterterrorism, the Middle East and Afghanistan. President Trump has, at least on paper, argued for shifting American foreign policy back to confront the “revisionist powers” of Russia and China.
    President Trump’s national security strategy calls for shifting the focus of American foreign policy away from the Middle East and Afghanistan, and back to what it refers to as the “revisionist” superpowers, Russia and China. Do you agree? Why or why not?
    sanders's Answer

    Despite its stated strategy, the Trump administration has never followed a coherent national security strategy. In fact, Trump has escalated tensions in the Middle East and put us on the brink of war with Iran, refused to hold Russia accountable for its interference in our elections and human rights abuses, has done nothing to address our unfair trade agreement with China that only benefits wealthy corporations, and has ignored China's mass internment of Uighurs and its brutal repression of protesters in Hong Kong. Clearly, Trump is not a president we should be taking notes from.

    As the wealthiest and most powerful nation on earth, we have got to help lead the struggle to defend and expand a rules-based international order in which law, not might, makes right. When Bernie is president, we will leverage our position as a world power to combat the rise of the international authoritarian axis, and work to build a coalition that mobilizes behind a vision of shared prosperity, security and dignity for all people.

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    11. Top Diplomatic Priority

    The next president will be confronted with an array of foreign policy challenges, from North Korea’s nuclear program to international efforts to combat climate change. It will not be possible to address all of them at once. This makes it essential to understand not only the candidates’ policies, but also their priorities.
    What would be your top priority for your secretary of state?
    sanders's Answer

    Bernie has long believed that the U.S. must lead the world in improving international cooperation to address shared challenges. That's why, together with his secretary of state, Bernie's administration will implement a foreign policy which focuses on democracy, human rights, environmental justice and economic fairness. Leading an international effort against the urgent threat of climate change will be a top priority.

    When Bernie is president, we will reverse Trump's assault on diplomacy. For example, while China expands its diplomatic footprint around the world, the U.S.'s is shrinking. More than 25 percent of the State Department's key positions remain vacant. We will make recruitment for the State Department and the rebuilding of our professional diplomatic corps a priority. Investing more in diplomacy, development and conflict prevention upstream can prevent the need for military intervention downstream. Starving diplomacy and foreign aid now will result in greater military defense needs later on.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Quote Originally Posted by Warren
    1. Use of Force

    Presidents from both parties have taken an expansive view of their powers as commander in chief, deploying troops and ordering airstrikes without explicit congressional approval and, sometimes, without an imminent threat. The Democratic candidates frequently criticize such actions, but they have been less clear on the circumstances in which they would consider military force justifiable.
    Apart from responding to an attack on the United States or a treaty ally, what are the conditions under which you would consider the use of American military force?
    warren's Answer

    I will not send our troops into harm’s way unless there is a vital national security interest at risk, a strategy with clear and achievable objectives, and an understanding and acceptance of the long-term costs. We will hold ourselves to this by recommitting to a simple idea: the constitutional requirement that Congress play a primary role in deciding to engage militarily.
    Would you consider military force for a humanitarian intervention?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. We cannot stand by and do nothing in the face of moral atrocities. But we should exercise that responsibility first and foremost through a foreign policy that prioritizes diplomacy to prevent or end conflicts and atrocities, including by reaffirming an international order that protects and values human rights around the world. In extremely rare circumstances, there may be a role for humanitarian intervention — when limited in duration, with clear objectives, authorized by Congress, within U.S. capabilities, and conducted in cooperation with partners and allies and in compliance with applicable international law. But we should always consider the unintended consequences of U.S. intervention, no matter how good our intentions, and what consequences our intervention may bring. And we must understand that there is no military solution to many of these problems — instead, we must engage in the diplomatic and humanitarian work that is ignored by this administration but is far more likely to achieve our goals.

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    Would you consider military force to pre-empt an Iranian or North Korean nuclear or missile test?
    warren's Answer

    No. Using force against a nuclear power or high-risk adversary carries immense risk for broader conflict. Using force when not necessary can be dangerously counterproductive. Again, I will only use force if there is a vital national security interest at risk, a strategy with clear and achievable objectives, and an understanding and acceptance of the long-term costs.
    Would you consider military force to protect oil supplies?
    warren's Answer

    No. Together with our partners and allies, U.S. forces patrol the sea lanes to protect commerce and the transit of goods every day. But I will not use force to protect oil supplies. I have a 10-year action plan to achieve 100 percent clean energy for America by decarbonizing our electricity, vehicle and building sectors — reducing our reliance on foreign oil.
    Is there any situation in which you could see yourself using American troops or covert action in a regime-change effort? If so, under what circumstances would you be willing to do that?
    warren's Answer

    No. We have a long history of intervention to remake other countries’ societies and governments — sometimes this has been idealistic, sometimes cynical and self-serving, but always fundamentally misguided. There are dangerous, adversarial regimes in the world. We will set priorities and then use hard-nosed diplomacy to manage those relationships.
    Is it appropriate for the United States to provide nonmilitary support for regime-change efforts, as the Trump administration did in Venezuela?
    warren's Answer

    No. The U.S. should always stand in support of democratic values and democratic movements around the world, but we should not engage in efforts to foment regime change, whether by military, covert or other means. In the case of Venezuela, Maduro is a dictator whose regime has dismantled democratic institutions — but Trump’s reckless actions have only further worsened the suffering of the Venezuelan people. Instead, we should work with the countries of the region to address Venezuela’s humanitarian needs and advance a negotiated path to free and fair elections as quickly as possible.

    Collapse Answer
    2. Iran

    In 2015, the Obama administration signed a deal with Iran that lifted sanctions in exchange for significant limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Many Republicans fiercely objected to the deal, saying it was not tough enough, and in 2018, President Trump abandoned it and reinstated sanctions. But Iran kept up its end of the agreement until last month, when Mr. Trump ordered the killing of a top Iranian general, Qassim Suleimani. The killing of General Suleimani brought the United States to the brink of war with Iran, which retaliated by attacking two military bases that American forces were using in Iraq.
    What would you do with the now-abandoned Iranian nuclear deal, as negotiated in 2015?
    warren's Answer

    I would re-enter the deal with no new preconditions.
    Do you believe President Trump acted within his legal authority in giving the order to kill Qassim Suleimani? Was the killing justifiable? Was it wise?
    warren's Answer

    No. The president's reckless decision has brought us to the brink of another war in the Middle East. His administration has produced no evidence of imminent threat and made no meaningful attempt at a legal justification. There was no prior consultation with Congress, and no serious thought put into the potential consequences for our troops and our country — or even for the president’s own stated strategies in the region. President Trump’s dangerous escalation has made Americans less safe.
    Regarding possible future military action against Iran, is there any type of response that is off the table for you?
    warren's Answer

    I want to end America’s wars in the Middle East, not start a new one with Iran. The litmus test I will use for any military action against Iran is the same that I will use as I consider any military action anywhere in the world. I will not send our troops into harm’s way unless there is a vital national security interest at risk, a strategy with clear and achievable objectives, and an understanding and acceptance of the long-term costs. We will hold ourselves to this by recommitting to a simple idea: the constitutional requirement that Congress play a primary role in deciding to engage militarily.
    What would your military strategy to deter Iran be? What would your diplomatic strategy be?
    warren's Answer

    The first thing we need to do is de-escalate and reopen channels of communication with Iran, using the P5+1 and other interlocutors. The best way to do that is to start by negotiating the re-entry of the United States and Iran into the J.C.P.O.A. if that is still possible. If the crisis and conflict President Trump has chosen to create make re-entry into the J.C.P.O.A. impossible, we can still lead with diplomacy and pursue interim confidence-building agreements that focus on our most pressing strategic priority in the region: constraining Iran’s nuclear program.
    3. North Korea

    Dismantling North Korea’s nuclear program has long been an American priority, and President Trump has tried to do so through unusual means: direct diplomacy with the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un. It started in Singapore in 2018 but began to fall apart last February, when Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim emerged from a summit meeting in Vietnam empty-handed. In the interim, sanctions have remained, the North’s arsenal of weapons fuel and missiles has steadily expanded, and Mr. Kim recently threatened to resume missile tests.
    Would you continue the personal diplomacy President Trump began with Kim Jong-un?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. I would be willing to meet with Kim if it advances substantive negotiations, but not as a vanity project. Any summit must be part of a clear strategy, with substantive agreement already reached at the working level, and developed in close coordination with our allies and partners.
    Would you tighten sanctions until North Korea has given up all of its nuclear and missile programs?
    warren's Answer

    No. Economic sanctions can provide strong leverage against North Korea and help counter proliferation but must be appropriately targeted to ensure that they don’t further the suffering of the North Korean people. Sanctions should be adjusted as needed. Certainly, we should consider strengthening them in the event of serious North Korean provocations, such as nuclear or long-range missile tests. At the same time, with verifiable steps in denuclearization, we should be prepared to negotiate appropriate sanctions relief.
    Would you gradually lift sanctions in return for a freeze on fissile material development, as President Clinton attempted?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. Even as we work toward the long-term goal of denuclearization, we should focus on taking practical, reciprocal steps in the near-term to reduce the threat and build mutual trust. As a first step, I would be prepared, in consultation with our allies and partners, to consider partial, time-limited sanctions relief and other confidence-building measures in exchange for a strong, verifiable agreement that freezes North Korea's nuclear and missile activities.
    Would you insist on substantial disarmament before relieving any sanctions?
    warren's Answer

    No. A pragmatic approach to diplomacy requires give and take on both sides, not demands that one side unilaterally disarm first.
    Would you agree to begin withdrawing American troops from the Korean peninsula?
    warren's Answer

    No. Our presence on the Korean Peninsula is in our own strategic interest as a Pacific nation, vital for protecting our trade and investments and promoting democracy and human rights. While it makes sense to periodically review with our allies whether our force posture is appropriately tailored to the changing security environment, our troop presence in South Korea should not be a matter for negotiation with the North.
    Please describe your North Korea strategy further.
    warren's Answer

    Our goal should be the full elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and peace on the Korean Peninsula. But while we work toward those long-term goals, we must take pragmatic steps to reduce the threat now.

    We need serious, realistic negotiations to address this threat. As a first step, and in coordination with our partners and allies, I would seek a strong, verifiable agreement that keeps North Korea from expanding its nuclear or missile arsenal or proliferating to other countries. An interim agreement would open the door to negotiations to reduce North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and ballistic missiles, control conventional weapons, and address the regime’s crimes against humanity. Denuclearization negotiations should also run in parallel with efforts to further dialogue between South Korea and North Korea and work towards a stable security architecture for the peninsula. A real diplomatic strategy to deal with North Korea is not only an imperative for our national security, it is the only credible path toward denuclearization.

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    4. Afghanistan

    The war in Afghanistan, begun after the Sept. 11 attacks, is the longest war in United States history, and documents released in December revealed that three successive presidential administrations misled the American people about the progress — or lack thereof — being made on the ground. That the United States should withdraw has become a rare point of agreement between President Trump and Democrats. But there are still significant disagreements over when, and under what conditions, that withdrawal should happen.
    Would American troops be in Afghanistan at the end of your first term? If so, would you limit those troops' mission to counterterrorism and intelligence gathering?
    warren's Answer

    No. We have been in Afghanistan for 18 years with diminishing returns for our own security — we’ve 'turned the corner' so many times it seems we’re now going in circles. Expecting a military victory when a political settlement is required is unfair to our military, and unfair to the Afghan people. It's long past time to bring our troops home, and I would begin to do so immediately.
    Would American presence in Afghanistan be dependent on other nations contributing troops on the ground?
    warren's Answer

    No. The only time Article 5 of the NATO charter has been invoked was when the United States was attacked on 9/11. Our NATO partners and others have worked side-by-side with U.S. forces in Afghanistan — hundreds have been killed and many more wounded. The presence of partner forces is a testament to the strength of U.S. partnerships and alliances, and we will consult with our partners prior to any change in troop presence on the ground.
    How long do you envision American troops being required, in any numbers, in Afghanistan?
    warren's Answer

    It’s time to give up the false idea that keeping troops in Afghanistan endlessly makes Americans safer. I would begin to withdraw troops immediately, and at the same time I would engage in serious diplomacy to achieve our counterterrorism goals, including negotiating a sustainable political settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban. I would also refocus on intelligence efforts, law enforcement, and international partnerships to prevent terrorist attacks against the United States, whether they originate from home or abroad. These tools have been enormously successful in preventing attacks against the U.S. since 9/11 — and vastly more effective and less costly than occupying countries.

    If Afghans make the hard decisions required to achieve peace among themselves, we should support them. Redirecting just a small fraction of the tens of billions of dollars we currently spend on military operations toward economic development and education, for example, would be a more sustainable investment in Afghanistan’s stability than our current perpetuation of endless war. It’s time to acknowledge that we’ve achieved our main objective of decimating Al Qaeda’s safe haven in the region, and to use American diplomatic muscle to bring an end to this war.

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    5. Israel

    In Israel, a two-state solution — long viewed as the only workable end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — appears more distant than ever after President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embraced a plan that appeared to tilt the outcome in Israel’s favor. Mr. Trump’s decision in 2018 to move the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was deeply polarizing. So is the B.D.S. (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions) movement, which has grown increasingly prominent and which the House condemned in a bipartisan resolution last year.
    Should the United States maintain its current level of military aid to Israel? If not, how should the level of aid change?
    warren's Answer

    Israel is an important ally, and I am committed to Israel’s security and safety, and to working together to combat shared threats. But it is also critical to preserve the viability of the two-state solution. In some cases, this may mean finding ways to apply pressure and create consequences for problematic behavior by both parties, as previous Democratic and Republican presidents have done. Today, the continued expansion of Israeli settlements and the increasing normalization of proposals for Israel to annex parts or all of the West Bank are the most immediate dangers to the two-state solution. I will reverse the Trump administration’s new policy on settlements, which upends 40 years of bipartisan precedent, and make clear that Israeli settlements violate international law. And if Israel’s government continues with steps to annex the West Bank, the U.S. should make clear that none of our aid should be used to support annexation.

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    Do you support the B.D.S. movement? If not, should the president and/or Congress act to hinder it?
    warren's Answer

    No. I do not support the boycott, but I think outlawing protected free speech activity violates the Constitution.
    Should the United States Embassy in Israel be moved from Jerusalem back to Tel Aviv?
    warren's Answer

    As president, I will take immediate steps to re-establish America’s role as a credible mediator by reopening an American mission to the Palestinians in Jerusalem. I would also make clear that in a two-state agreement, both parties should have the option to locate their capitals in Jerusalem — one for Israel and one for a future Palestinian state. If Israel takes steps counter to peace, I am prepared to freeze or reverse the limited embassy functions that have moved to Jerusalem.
    Should all Palestinian refugees and their descendants have the right to return to Israel?
    warren's Answer

    No. Like all people, every Palestinian refugee should have the right to citizenship and dignity. The fate of Palestinian refugees is one of the core issues of the conflict, and there must be a just settlement negotiated between the two sides. Through prior negotiations, a range of remedies have been developed, including Palestinian refugees returning to the new state of Palestine, obtaining permanent residency or citizenship in the countries where they reside, resettlement in other countries of their choosing, and a negotiated number returning to Israel. There should also be an international fund to compensate Palestinian refugees.
    Do you support the establishment of a Palestinian state that includes West Bank land as demarcated by pre-1967 borders, except for longtime Israeli settlements?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. Any two-state agreement should be based on the 1967 lines, with agreed-upon modifications such as reciprocal land swaps.
    If you answered yes to the last question, what will you do to achieve that where past administrations have failed? If you answered no, what solution do you envision to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
    warren's Answer

    A two-state solution is good for U.S. interests, good for Israel's security and its future, and good for Palestinian aspirations for dignity and self-determination. To achieve this, there must be an end to the Israeli occupation and the creation of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip living alongside Israel.

    As president, I’ll take immediate steps to fix the damage caused by Donald Trump’s reckless policies. I’ll welcome the Palestinian General Delegation back to Washington, because we cannot advance peace when we have closed our channels of communication. I’ll resume aid to the Palestinians that the Trump administration has cut off, because we cannot sustain peace without a future that brings greater freedom, prosperity, and security to the Palestinian people.

    I will also put greater emphasis on relieving the humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip. I will seek a political arrangement that ends the rocket attacks, lifts the blockade, and facilitates the political reunification of Gaza with the West Bank. And I will make it clear to the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships that incitement and incentivizing terror against civilians is unacceptable.

    A longer-term danger is the incredulity gap that has been created amongst the young Israelis and Palestinians who simply do not believe that peace is possible, where hope has been replaced by fear and mistrust. We need to work to lay a foundation that enables Israelis and Palestinians to overcome the broken status quo and move towards a brighter future — one where Israelis and Palestinians can live together in peace, freedom, security and prosperity.

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    6. Russia

    Russia has been a deeply destabilizing force on the world stage for several years, including through its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and its meddling in the United States’ 2016 presidential election. After it annexed Crimea, it was suspended from the Group of Eight bloc of industrialized nations (now, in Russia’s absence, the Group of Seven). But President Trump has pushed to readmit Russia to the G-7 and has held several meetings with President Vladimir Putin, the contents of which have not been disclosed.
    If Russia continues on its current course in Ukraine and other former Soviet states, should the United States regard it as an adversary, or even an enemy?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. Unfortunately, it is clear that Vladimir Putin has decided to treat the U.S. and our allies in Europe as adversaries. In Ukraine, Russia has invaded and occupied the territory of a neighboring sovereign country in violation of international law. Beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin has conducted interference campaigns against U.S. and European democracies, orchestrated cyber attacks against NATO allies, bombed hospitals and civilians to prop up a dictator in Syria, and engaged in covert assassination campaigns in Europe. Domestically, Putin’s Russia has become a corrupt autocratic state that suppresses democracy and violates the human rights of its citizens. But hard-nosed diplomacy is required — even, and in some cases especially, with countries that regard themselves as adversaries — and it will be a cornerstone of my approach to foreign policy.
    Should Russia be required to return Crimea to Ukraine before it is allowed back into the G-7?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. The G-7 was intended to allow like-minded advanced economies to develop common approaches to global problems. Russia was included in the G-7 in an effort to integrate it into Europe and to support its transition to democracy. Unfortunately, Russia’s actions in recent years have demonstrated that it does not share the outlook and values of the other G-7 members. Until it changes direction, Russia’s actions are likely to be a frequent topic of G-7 discussions, and it cannot realistically be a participant.
    7. China

    The Chinese government has been systematically persecuting Muslim minorities: separating families, subjecting Uighurs and Kazakhs to forced labor and operating internment camps. It is also embroiled in a political crisis over Hong Kong, a special administrative region of China. At the same time, President Trump has taken a hard line on trade with China, imposing economically damaging tariffs. Last month, the United States and China signed an initial trade deal.
    Should respect for Hong Kong’s political independence, under the terms of the handover agreement with Britain, be a prerequisite for normal relations and trade with China?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. Hong Kong plays a unique role in the global economy and an essential role for China. That role is sustainable only if Hong Kong is allowed to retain its democratic orientation and traditions. China should not expect that foreign governments will look the other way if it fails to live up to the international commitment it made in 1997, or that governments and companies will act as if nothing has changed if Beijing continues to undermine the rule of law that is central to that commitment and to Hong Kong's success as a global financial and commercial center.
    Should normal relations and trade be contingent on China’s closing its internment camps for Uighurs and other Muslim minority groups?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. The Chinese government’s cruel, bigoted treatment of Muslims and ethnic minorities is a horrifying violation of human rights and international law. I have supported efforts to respond strongly to these acts, including export controls on technology used for surveillance of China’s Muslim communities and targeted sanctions on those who are directly responsible for these policies of oppression. My trade plan also requires that countries uphold internationally recognized human rights as a precondition for any trade agreement with America.

    The United States should also mobilize the international community to hold China’s leadership accountable for its abuses. We have an obligation to stand up to hatred and extremism at home and around the world, and China's human rights practices must be a central part of our diplomatic relationship with Beijing.

    We will need to work with China to advance some of our highest priority national interests, including addressing the climate crisis and non-proliferation, even at the same time as we address areas where we have little common ground. But our values cannot be used as a bargaining chip.

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    8. NATO

    The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance among 29 North American and European countries, has been a linchpin of the United States’ foreign policy for decades. But President Trump has often criticized the alliance, arguing that the United States gives too much and gets too little from it. During his 2016 campaign, he refused to commit to NATO’s central pledge — defending other members if they are attacked — if the members in question had not met their spending commitments, and aides say that in 2018, he repeatedly suggested withdrawing. Last year, NATO agreed to reduce the United States’ contribution and increase Germany’s.
    Should NATO nations pay more for defense than their current commitment of at least 2 percent of G.D.P.?
    warren's Answer

    NATO defense spending levels should not be about arbitrary spending targets. They will be about capabilities. I will build on what President Obama started by insisting on increased contributions to NATO operations and common investments in collective military capabilities. If requirements change and more than 2 percent is required, then our European allies should spend more. But if the needs of the alliance can be met investing at or less than 2 percent, then allies should spend what is needed. I will also recognize the varied and significant ways that European states contribute to global security — deploying troops to shared missions, receiving refugees and providing development assistance at some of the highest per capita rates in the world.
    Should nations that do not fulfill their NATO funding commitment still receive an assurance of United States aid if they are attacked?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. NATO is not a protection racket; it is an alliance. NATO members made a commitment in Article 5 to come to each other’s aid if attacked — our allies came to our defense after 9/11, and if needed we will do the same. NATO is the most successful military alliance in history because of this shared commitment, and because it is built on shared burdens and shared values. Allies should meet their spending commitments, yes, but treating NATO as a pay-to-play scheme undermines the solidarity that is key to the alliance’s strength.
    9. Cyber Policy

    Cyber weaponry has emerged as the primary way nations compete with and undercut each other in short-of-war conflict. Yet there are few international rules that govern the daily battles — or prevent escalation. As a shadow war emerges in cyberspace, President Trump has given far more powers to the United States Cyber Command and the National Security Agency.
    Should a presidential order be required to launch a cyber strike against another country, just as it is required to launch a nuclear strike?
    warren's Answer

    Yes. The same laws, values, and oversight under which the United States pursues military action should be consistently applied across domains. Any such activity should be subject to careful deliberation by the president and her advisors and the strict oversight of Congress — including offensive operations in cyberspace that rise to the level of a use of force or armed attack.

    Cyber threats are dangerous because the digital world is uniquely interconnected, traversing public and private infrastructure alike and crossing international borders in an instant. It is transforming the way Americans live their lives, as well as the way our adversaries seek to do us harm. The United States must be thoughtful and intentional about how it uses this domain to confront adversaries, and engage seriously on the question of cyber norms.

    Collapse Answer
    The United States Cyber Command’s new strategy is “persistent engagement,” meaning the U.S. goes deep inside foreign computer networks to constantly engage with adversaries and dissuade strikes on the United States. Would you continue this policy?
    warren's Answer

    Cyber attacks pose an urgent threat to our democracy and our prosperity, and the Trump administration has not yet produced an adequate solution to address, for example, Russia’s ongoing cyber-enabled interference with our elections or China’s campaigns to steal data that is critical to Americans’ safety and prosperity and to our national defense.

    D.O.D.’s strategy of "persistent engagement" and defending forward to disrupt cyber threats can be a part of defending U.S. national security, but it must be paired with adequate investment in cyber security to strengthen our defenses, make attacks by our adversaries less effective, and bolster the resilience of our critical infrastructure. We must also engage diplomatically, working with the international community to isolate and punish those states that violate norms of responsible behavior. Modernizing federal cybersecurity and rejuvenating the State Department will be critical parts of my strategy to confront threats from cyberspace.

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    If you answered yes to the last question, would you nevertheless insist that other nations pursuing “persistent engagement” could not be inside American power grids and other critical infrastructure?
    warren's Answer

    Not applicable.
    10. National Security Strategy

    In the post-Cold War era — and especially after the Sept. 11 attacks — the focal point of American foreign policy moved to counterterrorism, the Middle East and Afghanistan. President Trump has, at least on paper, argued for shifting American foreign policy back to confront the “revisionist powers” of Russia and China.
    President Trump’s national security strategy calls for shifting the focus of American foreign policy away from the Middle East and Afghanistan, and back to what it refers to as the “revisionist” superpowers, Russia and China. Do you agree? Why or why not?
    warren's Answer

    Despite his campaign claims and his national security strategy, President Trump has in fact sent more troops to the Middle East and has now brought us to the brink of war with Iran. We need to end America’s wars in the Middle East, not start new ones.

    Both China and Russia have invested heavily in their militaries and other tools of national power. Both hope to shape spheres of influence in their own image and ultimately remake the global order to suit their own priorities. But confronting this challenge is not solely or even primarily a question of military competition, nor should the United States seek a military conflict that would be devastating for all involved. China uses its economic might to throw its weight around on the world stage, for instance, while Russia has prioritized opportunistic harassment and covert attacks. And beyond China and Russia, we face challenges, such as cyberattacks and nuclear proliferation, that require much more than a strong military to combat. Other challenges, like climate change, cannot be solved through military action at all.

    Addressing these challenges requires prioritization. That starts with cutting our bloated defense budget — identifying which programs actually benefit American security and which merely line the pockets of defense contractors. It also requires us to reinvest in diplomacy and other tools of national power — because funding a muscular military without robust diplomacy, economic statecraft, support for civil society, and development assistance only hamstrings American national power and undercuts any military gains.

    Lastly, with American power increasingly challenged from within and without, we can no longer afford to think of our domestic agenda as separate from our foreign policy. Investments at home strengthen the economy, but they also serve our national security. A stronger economy, a healthier democracy and a united people — these are the engines that power our country, and these are the investments that will project American strength and values in the world well into the 21st century.

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    11. Top Diplomatic Priority

    The next president will be confronted with an array of foreign policy challenges, from North Korea’s nuclear program to international efforts to combat climate change. It will not be possible to address all of them at once. This makes it essential to understand not only the candidates’ policies, but also their priorities.
    What would be your top priority for your secretary of state?
    warren's Answer

    The first priority for a new secretary of state must be to address the threat posed by climate change to the United States and the world. But to make progress on climate change, we will need to rebuild relations with our allies and partners. In fact, all of the challenges we face — from climate change to nonproliferation to the need for international norms in space and cyberspace — require a multilateral approach to solve. Our network of partnerships and alliances is one of America’s unique strengths, and we are stronger together than we are apart.

    We won’t be able to rebuild America’s image and restore relations with our key allies without repairing the damage done to the State Department, which has been gutted during the Trump administration. I have a plan to revitalize the State Department, and I will appoint a secretary capable of implementing it. The American people deserve the world’s best diplomatic institution to protect American interests around the world.


    Having to go to the trouble of actually comparing candidates on minutiae is exhausting. And by reading the above thousands of words, what have I learned? I already thought Sanders has a (relatively) more developed theory of foreign policy, that Warren has a more concrete and analytical mindset, that both would govern similarly where they have space to govern, and that 78-year-old men with cardiovascular risk factors are epidemiologically-certain to be either dead or measurably-impaired within 8 years.

    Then there's the other candidates - how could spending so much time familiarizing myself with the details not be time misspent? Let's get it over with.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  5. #365
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    For my part I disagreed with most of Clinton's bellyaching and found it unhelpful, but look at it this way: a leadership contest is exactly when all a party's divisions should have their fullest expression. That's what this process is for! If we can't criticize each other now of all times then we never can, and that's not healthy. I'm pessimistic about a lot of things, but our ability to keep our eyes on the ball when the time comes is not one of them.
    I agree that the candidates should criticize each other. But I personally dont view that booing as criticism, I view that as leading an angry mob in a chant, akin to Trump leading chants of "lock her up." It leaves a bad taste in my mouth personally. And to be fair I think Hillary should have kept quiet about Bernie too. But I will say this: if your supporters are accused of being an angry mob of trolls, why isnt more being done to put a stop to it and prove people wrong? And its not just random supporters on Twitter.

    Like here is his national press secretary:
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    For those who dont know, John Lewis is a civil rights icon beloved not just by the African American community, but also by Democrats as a whole. But apparently because John Lewis didnt support Bernie that was enough to warrant a tweet like this, a year later too. I just dont see the point of this tweet other than to cause division. And this is not an isolated incident either.

    I used to really like Bernie. Even contributed to his 2016 campaign when he first announced. But now? Not as much.

    In New York, until a year ago it was the case that to vote in a party's primary you had to register with that party like 9 months beforehand. The recent NY electoral reform moved the registration deadline up to just 2 months - or at least, the deadline is Feb. 14 for the April 28 presidential primary; I don't know if there's a different deadline for the subsequent state/federal primaries. Speaking of which, last year's legislation finally consolidated the state and federal primaries on the same day. It also introduced same-day registration, early voting, and voting by mail.

    The point I'm making is that we can continue to progress in making voting easier at all levels, and streamlining the process so it is easier to understand and to keep voters informed of. Iowa-style dysfunction is not our destiny in this country; with a little effort we could have a navigable and responsive electoral system.
    I knew that NY revamped their election systems, but didnt know to what extent. Thanks for posting that, I definitely agree with you that voting needs to be made easier. Now if only we can convince the GOP of that too.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 02-10-2020 at 04:37.
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  6. #366

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    I agree that the candidates should criticize each other. But I personally dont view that booing as criticism, I view that as leading an angry mob in a chant, akin to Trump leading chants of "lock her up." It leaves a bad taste in my mouth personally. And to be fair I think Hillary should have kept quiet about Bernie too. But I will say this: if your supporters are accused of being an angry mob of trolls, why isnt more being done to put a stop to it and prove people wrong? And its not just random supporters on Twitter.

    Like here is his national press secretary:
    Click image for larger version. 

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    For those who dont know, John Lewis is a civil rights icon beloved not just by the African American community, but also by Democrats as a whole. But apparently because John Lewis didnt support Bernie that was enough to warrant a tweet like this, a year later too. I just dont see the point of this tweet other than to cause division. And this is not an isolated incident either.

    I used to really like Bernie. Even contributed to his 2016 campaign when he first announced. But now? Just leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
    Well, it's difficult for me because I don't engage on Twitter. I understand that people like Gray and Sirota are considered to be attack dogs (which doesn't necessarily make them overall bad at their current campaign roles). I'm aware that a subset of more-engaged Dems hate Sanders because of bad experiences with members of his base, themselves often politically-engaged leftists or even journalists and intellectuals. Most truly don't care or don't know, but there's an undeniable undercurrent of bad blood when it comes to pro-Sanders and anti-Sanders factions. To some extent it's demographics. You're not going to be flamed by a Biden supporter because most of them are middle-aged to elderly, not active on social media. It's the opposite with Sanders' base, who are disproportionately young and Very Online.

    I don't know how to approach the issue in the short-term. Sanders has periodically made statements condemning trolling or flaming by his supporters. It's unclear what specifically he should be doing, or if maybe he's being held to an unreasonable standard. In the long-term, let's remember a few things:

    Clinton in 2008 was about as hostile to Obama -as were her supporters - to Obama as Sanders and his were to Clinton in 2016. Sanders was criticized for not conceding earlier to Clinton. Well, he won 43% of the vote and conceded on July 12 2016. Clinton, in 2008, won 23% and conceded on June 5 2008.

    In 1972 McGovern was sabotaged by the national party, and many Democratic constituencies - including unions - actively campaigned against him, sat out the election, or even outright supported Nixon.

    We're not going through anything new or even especially intense. Let's try to keep things in perspective and not let bad interactions bring us down. Rest assured, win or lose Sanders will campaign for other Democrats, including the crucial downballot races for Congress and the state leges.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-10-2020 at 04:51.
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  7. #367
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Well, it's difficult for me because I don't engage on Twitter. I understand that people like Gray and Sirota are considered to be attack dogs (which doesn't necessarily make them overall bad at their current campaign roles).
    But the thing is that if you want to talk about unity, maybe the "attack dogs" need to be reined in a bit. And this goes for every campaign btw.

    I'm aware that a subset of more-engaged Dems hate Sanders because of bad experiences with members of his base, themselves often politically-engaged leftists or even journalists and intellectuals. Most truly don't care or don't know, but there's an undeniable undercurrent of bad blood when it comes to pro-Sanders and anti-Sanders factions. To some extent it's demographics. You're not going to be flamed by a Biden supporter because most of them are middle-aged to elderly, not active on social media. It's the opposite with Sanders' base, who are disproportionately young and Very Online.
    Interestingly enough, what I have seen its not so much the Biden supporters, its the Harris supporters. And now the Warren supporters too. Lots of viciousness. Especially from the Harris supporters, who accuse the Bernie side of minimizing African American women. For example, Bernie supporters giving Bernie credit for a bill that addresses healthcare for African American women when it was in fact Harris who brought that bill up.

    I don't know how to approach the issue in the short-term. Sanders has periodically made statements condemning trolling or flaming by his supporters. It's unclear what specifically he should be doing, or if maybe he's being held to an unreasonable standard.
    I mean he could fire Gray and Sirota for one. They arent the only progressive press people out there. His words dont seem to mean much when his own press sec is engaging in some of the same behavior he is renouncing.

    Clinton in 2008 was about as hostile to Obama -as were her supporters - to Obama as Sanders and his were to Clinton in 2016. Sanders was criticized for not conceding earlier to Clinton. Well, he won 43% of the vote and conceded on July 12 2016. Clinton, in 2008, won 23% and conceded on June 5 2008.
    I'm trying to find the exact numbers, but I distinctly remember reading that the number of events that Hillary campaigned for Obama were significantly higher than Bernie for Hillary. And it should also be pointed out that the 2008 convention was in late August. So thats over 2.5 months between Hillary conceding and the convention whereas there was only 13 days between Bernie conceding and the convention in 2016.

    In 1972 McGovern was sabotaged by the national party, and many Democratic constituencies - including unions - actively campaigned against him, sat out the election, or even outright supported Nixon.

    We're not going through anything new or even especially intense. Let's try to keep things in perspective and not let bad interactions bring us down. Rest assured, win or lose Sanders will campaign for other Democrats, including the crucial downballot races for Congress and the state leges.
    I definitely agree and I pray that the primary doesnt negatively impact the general, whoever it may be, and I pray that this poll isnt true:
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    Last edited by Hooahguy; 02-10-2020 at 05:18.
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  8. #368

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    But the thing is that if you want to talk about unity, maybe the "attack dogs" need to be reined in a bit. And this goes for every campaign btw.


    Interestingly enough, what I have seen its not so much the Biden supporters, its the Harris supporters. And now the Warren supporters too. Lots of viciousness. Especially from the Harris supporters, who accuse the Bernie side of minimizing African American women. For example, Bernie supporters giving Bernie credit for a bill that addresses healthcare for African American women when it was in fact Harris who brought that bill up.

    I definitely agree and I pray that the primary doesnt negatively impact the general, whoever it may be, and I pray that this poll isnt true:
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    I will say one thing, and maybe this is a fundamental problem with the Sanders brand: there are a lot of online intellectuals (pro-Sanders ones) who have fallen into a cult of personality trap. They're fixated on the idea that Sanders is uniquely skilled and poised and honest and popular. Only he is a true progressive, only he can beat Trump, etc. This can verge on noxious delusion, and it's a bad sign for the intellectual health of the socialist movement. Noxious delusions, in turn, can lead to excesses when confronting people off the team. This is most visible in some of the prominent online Left publications. If you're someone who basically believes Sanders is the messiah and the only bulwark against devastation, maybe it makes sense to you that you have to condemn people for making any other decision.

    But on the other hand there are the supporters of other candidates who totally revile Sanders as a person, think he's an incompetent narcissist, will lose in a blowout, etc. and are vicious about it.

    What neither Sanders' greatest detractors or supporters seem to realize is that he really is just a regular politician.

    I mean he could fire Gray and Sirota for one. They arent the only progressive press people out there. His words dont seem to mean much when his own press sec is engaging in some of the same behavior he is renouncing.
    So these people are strident in their writing or rude in their tweets - before they joined Sanders' campaign. Maybe they should be presumptively cancelled, but if not can you point to something truly objectionable and disqualifying they've done in the past year? The time in which they've held their campaign positions? I mean, I don't know - I don't follow any of the campaign staffing decisions. But if one won't even evaluate Gray and Sirota on their campaign performance, nor the rest of Sanders' staffing choices, nor other campaigns' staffing choices, can you really have a strong impression that Sanders makes bad staffing choices?

    I'm trying to find the exact numbers, but I distinctly remember reading that the number of events that Hillary campaigned for Obama were significantly higher than Bernie for Hillary. And it should also be pointed out that the 2008 convention was in late August. So thats over 2.5 months between Hillary conceding and the convention whereas there was only 13 days between Bernie conceding and the convention in 2016.
    On the other hand, Clinton was the mainstream in 2008. Sanders had reason to try to leverage his clout for a little more.

    One aspect I would agree on is that Sanders supporters, the influential ones, were more likely to condemn the party or urge abstention or third-party voting in the general. But Sanders rejected this attitude repeatedly, so I don't know...
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  9. #369
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I will say one thing, and maybe this is a fundamental problem with the Sanders brand: there are a lot of online intellectuals (pro-Sanders ones) who have fallen into a cult of personality trap. They're fixated on the idea that Sanders is uniquely skilled and poised and honest and popular. Only he is a true progressive, only he can beat Trump, etc. This can verge on noxious delusion, and it's a bad sign for the intellectual health of the socialist movement. Noxious delusions, in turn, can lead to excesses when confronting people off the team. This is most visible in some of the prominent online Left publications. If you're someone who basically believes Sanders is the messiah and the only bulwark against devastation, maybe it makes sense to you that you have to condemn people for making any other decision.

    But on the other hand there are the supporters of other candidates who totally revile Sanders as a person, think he's an incompetent narcissist, will lose in a blowout, etc. and are vicious about it.

    What neither Sanders' greatest detractors or supporters seem to realize is that he really is just a regular politician.
    I completely agree. I consider myself a progressive, someone who believes in Medicare for all (or something similar), the Green New Deal, etc. But I just cannot stand the deification of Sanders. It reeks of what the GOP base did to Trump. I dont even think hes a very good person to lead the movement from an electoral standpoint. His credentials are thin and he struggles to articulate his positions beyond his normal stump speech. The most glaring example is this clip from yesterday on Meet the Press. Chuck Todd asks him a tough question: what do you say to the people for whom the economy is working well? Bernie gives his regular lines about creating an economy that works for the middle class. Chuck points out that these voters already think the economy works well for them, and Bernie seems unable to give a good answer, and just pivots to his stump speech. And this isn't an isolated instance. His inability to go beyond his stump speech might be great for his rallies, but outside that "safe space" he doesnt seem to do as well.

    On the flip side though, I do give him major credit for making the progressive movement more popular among the younger generations, and that does give me hope for the future.

    So these people are strident in their writing or rude in their tweets - before they joined Sanders' campaign. Maybe they should be presumptively cancelled, but if not can you point to something truly objectionable and disqualifying they've done in the past year? The time in which they've held their campaign positions? I mean, I don't know - I don't follow any of the campaign staffing decisions. But if one won't even evaluate Gray and Sirota on their campaign performance, nor the rest of Sanders' staffing choices, nor other campaigns' staffing choices, can you really have a strong impression that Sanders makes bad staffing choices?
    I could go through previous tweets and statements like the Teachout op-ed scandal but that would take up most of my day I think. The point still stands though: if a campaign hires people who are well known for their venom, it does reflect poorly on the campaign and calls into question their judgement. And that has a ripple effect throughout the whole campaign as surrogates see that type of behavior as being tacitly approved. Sanders needs to take responsibility, and that means firing those who have engaged in such behavior.

    Though speaking of poor decisions, I wonder if anyone in the Sanders camp has come to regret pushing for caucuses during the Unity Reform Commission when others wanted to switch to a regular primary? Especially since now they are ignoring the state delegate equivalent count and touting the higher voter numbers which would mean that they might have actually won a regular primary in Iowa. Big oof.

    On the other hand, Clinton was the mainstream in 2008. Sanders had reason to try to leverage his clout for a little more.

    One aspect I would agree on is that Sanders supporters, the influential ones, were more likely to condemn the party or urge abstention or third-party voting in the general. But Sanders rejected this attitude repeatedly, so I don't know...
    Maybe it was more about leveraging clout for Sanders, but one has to admit he didnt look too happy endorsing Hillary either.

    Sanders might go reject the attitude of voting third party, but how effective is it when he ends up having as his 2020 campaign co-chair someone who was a prominent Jill Stein voter? That to me feels like tacit agreement with what people like Nina Turner did.
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    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I don't really see the logical connections between these postulates, nor how they can add up to a model for causal inference. It seems to me an arbitrary arrangement you're suggesting.
    If you wanted to get a quick idea about whether the presence of large amounts of oil in Saudi Arabia had benefited the country, would you not try to imagine a scenario where the country did not have the oil?

    If I understand you right then what you're asking for is basically impossible in a scientific context. It would be like looking at a cloud and demanding a total characterization of a single atom within that cloud, in order to credit theories about the physics of clouds.
    Note the use of adequate; i.e. adequate to get a reasonably accurate probability for whether the individual benefits from the presence of the underprivileged group. A complete understanding of this individual's life is not sought.

    Still a difficult task, but I would say that's because this is a complex issue.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Yes, this is the longest ever. Doesn't mean we need to start Christmas shopping in July either. We can change this schedule, these incentives, by altering the electoral process. An extended leadership or campaigning season is never desirable. I'm not insisting on having a mere month set aside like in some other countries, but certainly less than 6 months.
    There are pros and cons to a long primary. We have basically cycled across 5 different candidates which has allowed voters to come to a more informed decision. Two years is too long, but having a two month primary would hand it to candidates like Biden who came in strong and only weakened after months of absolutely mediocre performance.

    As you know, the probabilities on display were all swapped once Iowa was factored in. The model is useful as fodder for future models. Right now it doesn't tell us that much because the parameters can change wildly with every vote on the advent calendar (at least through Super Tuesday).
    There are very few scenarios that would lead to any candidate getting a majority except Bernie winning it all. Iowa and NH mark the transition from wild swings (anything is possible) to maintaining momentum.
    Again, the GOP 2016 primaries had one big wild card, Trump, who then proceeded to consistently get 35% in every state after Iowa. There were no upsets at any given vote, only the increasing horror that no one was dropping out to allow the anti-trump voters to consolidate.


  12. #372
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    There are very few scenarios that would lead to any candidate getting a majority except Bernie winning it all. Iowa and NH mark the transition from wild swings (anything is possible) to maintaining momentum.
    Again, the GOP 2016 primaries had one big wild card, Trump, who then proceeded to consistently get 35% in every state after Iowa. There were no upsets at any given vote, only the increasing horror that no one was dropping out to allow the anti-trump voters to consolidate.
    I think after South Carolina is when we will start seeing some candidates drop out. Iowa and NH just are not a good representation of the Dem base. Nevada is better, but its a caucus so I'm wondering if the same level of chaos that we saw in Iowa will happen there too.

    I do agree that if any candidate was going to get a majority it would be Bernie, especially if Warren drops out after SC. But I think it is much likelier that we are headed for a brokered convention so who knows what will happen. And that is actually what I think Bloomberg is angling for. If he can take enough delegates from Biden, he can force a brokered convention where he might have more leverage than he is letting on.

    I will say this though: to Bloomberg's credit, he seems to be following a similar playbook that the Dems followed in 2018: hammer on Trump relentlessly and people are responding to that which is why he is rising in the polls.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    I completely agree. I consider myself a progressive, someone who believes in Medicare for all (or something similar), the Green New Deal, etc. But I just cannot stand the deification of Sanders. It reeks of what the GOP base did to Trump. I dont even think hes a very good person to lead the movement from an electoral standpoint. His credentials are thin and he struggles to articulate his positions beyond his normal stump speech. The most glaring example is this clip from yesterday on Meet the Press. Chuck Todd asks him a tough question: what do you say to the people for whom the economy is working well? Bernie gives his regular lines about creating an economy that works for the middle class. Chuck points out that these voters already think the economy works well for them, and Bernie seems unable to give a good answer, and just pivots to his stump speech. And this isn't an isolated instance. His inability to go beyond his stump speech might be great for his rallies, but outside that "safe space" he doesnt seem to do as well.
    Well, I can't disagree. On one hand it may be rhetorically effective in a lot of situations, reinforcing his brand. Better than spouting a thousand half-baked ideas in a muddle. On the other, it can insult the intelligence and it offers no reassurance for when he's off the stump. A year ago he did an interview with NY1, a local channel, and one of the questions he was asked was how he planned to implement his ideas about the necessity of a grassroots revolution in mass politics. That's one of Sanders strongest rhetorical points, and for socialists a selling point - but without something to back it up all he has is sloganeering like "Not me, us." So this is both a very important question for Sanders himself to answer, and for the left as a whole to get a grip on as the necessary wave of the future. A sound strategy for radicalizing the public would be a huge contribution to the cause.

    IIRC he couldn't really answer the question.

    I could go through previous tweets and statements like the Teachout op-ed scandal but that would take up most of my day I think. The point still stands though: if a campaign hires people who are well known for their venom, it does reflect poorly on the campaign and calls into question their judgement. And that has a ripple effect throughout the whole campaign as surrogates see that type of behavior as being tacitly approved. Sanders needs to take responsibility, and that means firing those who have engaged in such behavior.
    Teachout is pretty respectable and does a lot of good work. The article in question was fully accurate to my knowledge.

    The obvious dilemma with firing people who have offended the mainstream (which AOC actually did with her chief of staff or something in 2019) is that they may genuinely be valuable in their roles, whereas disposing of them won't satisfy the critics. Maybe Sanders has compensated with other hires? For example, the only other advisor I know of - Matt Duss - is to my knowledge universally respected.

    The place to hash out a compromise in this area is going forward, so hopefully when Sanders is selecting White House staff. Here's a relevant article on that subject.

    Though speaking of poor decisions, I wonder if anyone in the Sanders camp has come to regret pushing for caucuses during the Unity Reform Commission when others wanted to switch to a regular primary? Especially since now they are ignoring the state delegate equivalent count and touting the higher voter numbers which would mean that they might have actually won a regular primary in Iowa. Big oof.
    It had the upside of reinforcing once and for all that the caucuses have been an undemocratic administrative disaster all along.

    Maybe it was more about leveraging clout for Sanders, but one has to admit he didnt look too happy endorsing Hillary either.
    IDK
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    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    There are pros and cons to a long primary. We have basically cycled across 5 different candidates which has allowed voters to come to a more informed decision. Two years is too long, but having a two month primary would hand it to candidates like Biden who came in strong and only weakened after months of absolutely mediocre performance.
    Maybe, maybe not. Our candidates assimilate their behavior to the structure of the process. If the structure were different, so would the behavior be. Same goes for the electorate. Somehow, other countries see dark horse candidates, or competitive races, despite campaigns lasting a few months. If most voters don't pay attention to the primary until it reaches their state, well - it's easy to see how a national primary would refocus them.

    There are very few scenarios that would lead to any candidate getting a majority except Bernie winning it all. Iowa and NH mark the transition from wild swings (anything is possible) to maintaining momentum.
    Again, the GOP 2016 primaries had one big wild card, Trump, who then proceeded to consistently get 35% in every state after Iowa. There were no upsets at any given vote, only the increasing horror that no one was dropping out to allow the anti-trump voters to consolidate.
    That's correct in the broadest strokes, the likelihood of a second round in the convention or brokered convention. But the details can change a lot. Would Biden recover and secure a majority? A plurality? Would Buttigieg? Would Warren overcome the B-boys on Tuesday for second place and maintain that relative position to the end? Would Bloomberg pull out ahead of the field for second place? It's not yet clear. You're going to see wild fluctuations in the model output for the rest of the month.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    I do agree that if any candidate was going to get a majority it would be Bernie, especially if Warren drops out after SC. But I think it is much likelier that we are headed for a brokered convention so who knows what will happen. And that is actually what I think Bloomberg is angling for. If he can take enough delegates from Biden, he can force a brokered convention where he might have more leverage than he is letting on.
    The trouble for Bloomberg, besides the presence of Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar, is translating approval of his ad campaign to votes. If there are too many first-choice candidates hanging around on Super Tuesday, candidates with a media and electoral record behind them from the early primaries whereas Bloomberg has merely parachuted in, his campaign is DOA.

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    If you wanted to get a quick idea about whether the presence of large amounts of oil in Saudi Arabia had benefited the country, would you not try to imagine a scenario where the country did not have the oil?
    You could imagine a scenario disrupting their production, something like that. Imagining "what would Saudi Arabia be like if it never had any oil" is speculative fiction transforming the character of Earth and life on it to the beginning.
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  14. #374
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Teachout is pretty respectable and does a lot of good work. The article in question was fully accurate to my knowledge.

    The obvious dilemma with firing people who have offended the mainstream (which AOC actually did with her chief of staff or something in 2019) is that they may genuinely be valuable in their roles, whereas disposing of them won't satisfy the critics. Maybe Sanders has compensated with other hires? For example, the only other advisor I know of - Matt Duss - is to my knowledge universally respected.

    The place to hash out a compromise in this area is going forward, so hopefully when Sanders is selecting White House staff. Here's a relevant article on that subject.
    The factual accuracy of the article aside, for a surrogate to write the article, the campaign to amplify it, and then have the candidate apologize for it, does not lead me to believe that it was a well thought out plan. Especially since the article coincided with the impeachment trial during which the GOP was accusing the Bidens of being corrupt as well. So Im sure you can understand why a lot of Dems got angry that the Sanders campaign would seemingly go along with a Republican talking point. To his credit, Sanders apologized for it, but I think the damage was already done.

    The trouble for Bloomberg, besides the presence of Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar, is translating approval of his ad campaign to votes. If there are too many first-choice candidates hanging around on Super Tuesday, candidates with a media and electoral record behind them from the early primaries whereas Bloomberg has merely parachuted in, his campaign is DOA.
    Agreed. If he somehow became the nominee via a brokered convention, I could see a lot of people from all wings of the party being angry that he essentially bought his way into the nomination.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    In a twist, Bloomberg seems to have won the vote in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. With a whopping 4 Dem primary voters, they vote at midnight of the NH primary.

    Mike Bloomberg (as a write-in): 2
    Bernie Sanders: 1
    Pete Buttigieg: 1

    lol
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Agreed. If he somehow became the nominee via a brokered convention, I could see a lot of people from all wings of the party being angry that he essentially bought his way into the nomination.
    Bloomberg is the one candidate that would drive Sander's supporters to not vote or vote Trump. It would be suicide for the democratic party to choose him.


  17. #377

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    I think after South Carolina is when we will start seeing some candidates drop out. Iowa and NH just are not a good representation of the Dem base. Nevada is better, but its a caucus so I'm wondering if the same level of chaos that we saw in Iowa will happen there too.

    I do agree that if any candidate was going to get a majority it would be Bernie, especially if Warren drops out after SC. But I think it is much likelier that we are headed for a brokered convention so who knows what will happen. And that is actually what I think Bloomberg is angling for. If he can take enough delegates from Biden, he can force a brokered convention where he might have more leverage than he is letting on.

    I will say this though: to Bloomberg's credit, he seems to be following a similar playbook that the Dems followed in 2018: hammer on Trump relentlessly and people are responding to that which is why he is rising in the polls.
    The superdelegates ('automatic delegates') are 16% of the total delegate count but only vote if the first vote does not show a majority winner. They will not go for Bernie, even you don't care for Bernie ask yourself if you want more leverage for progressive policies at the brokered convention or if you want Bloomberg style governance.


  18. #378

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    If I am not being clear, I think Bloomberg is the worst. An authoritarian Billionaire who re-wrote the laws in NY to maintain power, forced dumb policies which neither helped the public interest nor engendered good feelings toward the use of government power.

    Also, he said Xi was not a dictator, and personally I think anyone not hard on China is a moron or complacent in their role as the most evil country on earth.


  19. #379
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Bloomberg is the one candidate that would drive Sander's supporters to not vote or vote Trump. It would be suicide for the democratic party to choose him.
    Are you sure Warren doesn't have the same effect? Or have we accepted she's a non-starter yet?

    Bloomberg seems the most likely to leach Trump's own supporters, but he'll also turn off a lot of the Socialist and Social Democrat base Bernie and Warren have. Having elected Bush, Obama and then Trump I don't see the American electorate going for a socialist candidate unless they're also white, male and a protestant. There's a reason Conservative parties like the GOP/Tories tend to be able to "stealth in" the first female/ethnic minority candidates.

    Obama is really the exception that proves that rule, as whilst he adopted a Chicago-centred African-American identity he's not actually African-American so much as he's an American with an African father.
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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Also, he said Xi was not a dictator, and personally I think anyone not hard on China is a moron or complacent in their role as the most evil country on earth.
    You know one of the greatest frustrations I have with modern politics is how selective most of the west is about foriegn interferance, they're hypersensitive about russia but china is ignored by pretty much everyone.

    Its a major chink in the armor of the conservatives here how stupidly determined they are to compromize our security to chinese companies, and they're supposed to be the evil Xenophobe party!

    The only person who treats china even close to how I think everyone should is trump and even he doesnt go hard enough for my liking.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Also, he said Xi was not a dictator, and personally I think anyone not hard on China is a moron or complacent in their role as the most evil country on earth.
    The obsession with China is about to surpass the Hunnic hysteria of WWI. With such comments becoming mainstream and getting adopted by the self-described moderate faction, it's little wonder why Trump's somewhat less elegant xenophobia didn't prevent him from winning the presidency. As long as America does not address its deeply rooted problem of chauvinism, the preponderance of nationalistic populists like Trump will grow into an endemic phenomenon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    The obsession with China is about to surpass the Hunnic hysteria of WWI. With such comments becoming mainstream and getting adopted by the self-described moderate faction, it's little wonder why Trump's somewhat less elegant xenophobia didn't prevent him from winning the presidency. As long as America does not address its deeply rooted problem of chauvinism, the preponderance of nationalistic populists like Trump will grow into an endemic phenomenon.
    I tend to agree, though that makes it no more perverse that we have essentially outsourced most of our heavy industry and manufacturing (to our own cost) to one of our most strident ideological opponents. The fact is, China isn't really "evil", it's just not democratic - or a friend to the West.
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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    The obsession with China is about to surpass the Hunnic hysteria of WWI. With such comments becoming mainstream and getting adopted by the self-described moderate faction, it's little wonder why Trump's somewhat less elegant xenophobia didn't prevent him from winning the presidency. As long as America does not address its deeply rooted problem of chauvinism, the preponderance of nationalistic populists like Trump will grow into an endemic phenomenon.
    I'm sure the Uyghurs would agree with you... the ones they deemed ready to be let out of the reeducation camps anyway.

    Always assuming we cant tell the difference between the government and the people.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 02-11-2020 at 16:45.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Chinese confrontation with the west is not on ideological grounds. Never was never will be. By the way, I never said that China didn't commit terrible actions or that the member I quoted didn't differentiate between the government and the people. The fact still remains that what happens to the Uughurs is not even close to the most gruesome atrocities and the demarcation between government and people can blur very easily and quickly. None of our members is guilty of it, but that's often not the case in public discourse. It has happened with China, Russia, Turkey, Iraq and many others, so caution is advised, especially for well-meaning people.

  25. #385

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    The factual accuracy of the article aside, for a surrogate to write the article, the campaign to amplify it, and then have the candidate apologize for it, does not lead me to believe that it was a well thought out plan. Especially since the article coincided with the impeachment trial during which the GOP was accusing the Bidens of being corrupt as well. So Im sure you can understand why a lot of Dems got angry that the Sanders campaign would seemingly go along with a Republican talking point. To his credit, Sanders apologized for it, but I think the damage was already done.
    Remember this tweet?

    I do not believe that most of the people who are thinking about voting for Mr. Trump are racist or sexist.
    12:37 PM · Nov 5, 2016
    On one hand, Sanders should not have been impugned for saying something with literally the same meaning as Clinton's remark that only half of Trump supporters were in the "basket of deplorables." Ironically they were criticized on opposite grounds for saying the same thing. It's quite basic political correctness: a politician would find it easier to explicitly call for genocide in this country than to publicly acknowledge that white people are racist.

    On the other hand, I can see the case that making this comment right days before the election, in the aftermath of the Comey letter, was ill-advised.

    If the complaint with the Teachout article is the timing, while I can see the problem assuming one is a Biden supporter, it's not like the Sanders campaign controls what the Guardian publishes by a professor who happens to be ideologically-aligned with Sanders.

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    The superdelegates ('automatic delegates') are 16% of the total delegate count but only vote if the first vote does not show a majority winner. They will not go for Bernie, even you don't care for Bernie ask yourself if you want more leverage for progressive policies at the brokered convention or if you want Bloomberg style governance.
    I maintain that you're overly pessimistic here. The superdelegates are not some kind of ultraconservative ideological block, and they are consciously not the kind of free agents men in their position would have been a century ago. If the superdelegates come to a vote, they will vote for whoever has the clear plurality (hopefully there is either a majority or clear plurality, of course). The "establishment" opposition to Sanders is more than not a figment of the imaginations of people who themselves hate or love him. And how little would one have to think of Democratic delegates to believe they're disposed to be less democratic vis-a-vis Sanders than Republican ones were with Trump in 2016?

    Check it out.
    https://www.vox.com/2020/2/7/2112296...-hillary-obama

    Now let's see what happens through Super Tuesday.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Are you sure Warren doesn't have the same effect? Or have we accepted she's a non-starter yet?
    Sanders supporters who wouldn't vote Warren won't vote any Democrat; there aren't many such Bernie-or-Busters.

    Bloomberg seems the most likely to leach Trump's own supporters, but he'll also turn off a lot of the Socialist and Social Democrat base Bernie and Warren have.
    Sanders has a lot going against him on paper, viz. he's an atheist Jew. Good thing he's well-liked as an aggressive and persistent man. He couldn't have this public persona as a woman.

    Bloomberg, meanwhile, is one of the less-liked politicians in the country and has the baggage of being a plutocratic gun-grabbing (((globalist))).

    Now, Warren, Bloomberg, Klobucharge, what have you - anyone who can beat Sanders outright has to show it on Super Tuesday. Unless all but one or two Sanders competitors drop out by then the safe bet is that they eliminate each other like so.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6PxRwgjzZw

    Having elected Bush, Obama and then Trump I don't see the American electorate going for a socialist candidate unless they're also white, male and a protestant.
    Guy, at least try not to fall afoul of the pundit's fallacy.

    Obama is really the exception that proves that rule, as whilst he adopted a Chicago-centred African-American identity he's not actually African-American so much as he's an American with an African father.
    So he's an African American. If you're referring to biracial privilege, that's another matter.


    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    The fact still remains that what happens to the Uughurs is not even close to the most gruesome atrocities
    Oh, well if it's not the most gruesome atrocity

    ???

    I can't see that a less chauvinistic America should be less critical of China.

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    The only person who treats china even close to how I think everyone should is trump and even he doesnt go hard enough for my liking.
    Trump isn't hard on China, he's directing a kamikaze-style foreign policy. A leader who went hard on China would try to leverage our interdependence with China to remediate the most urgent misconduct and develop areas of mutual cooperation, not permanently destroy leverage for negative gain.


    Tangentially:

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    All that trite tradition is gobberswallop. The Yanks have you beat you lying dog-faced pony soldiers!

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Is this what Spongebob quotes will sound like in 2075?
    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-12-2020 at 00:14.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  26. #386
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  27. #387

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Don't worry, the mighty Klobucharge will help clear the field for warmonger Sanders.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  28. #388

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    AND THEN THE WINGED KLOBUCATAPHRACTS KLOBUSSARS ARRIVED
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  29. #389

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    Chinese confrontation with the west is not on ideological grounds. Never was never will be. By the way, I never said that China didn't commit terrible actions or that the member I quoted didn't differentiate between the government and the people. The fact still remains that what happens to the Uughurs is not even close to the most gruesome atrocities and the demarcation between government and people can blur very easily and quickly. None of our members is guilty of it, but that's often not the case in public discourse. It has happened with China, Russia, Turkey, Iraq and many others, so caution is advised, especially for well-meaning people.

    I think the Chinese citizens are good people who have taken a destitute communist nation to extreme degrees of wealth once the political elite finally allowed them to operate in markets. I know that many don't like how their country is run, especially in Hong Kong and Wuhan where their mismanagement and lies are now a daily reality.

    You are wrong though that there is no ideological component to this. The Chinese state has no intention of anything less than autocracy and absolute control over their subjects. Their success or failure is a test on whether the 'Chinese model' is a viable alternative to liberal democracy.

    And no, their concentration camps are evil and on a scale not seen since the USSR. I think it is the height of western 'semi-enlightened' obnoxiousness to try to downplay the real tragedies committed by the state under the guise of preventing 'collateral damage' towards the subjects. Taking that logic all the way we must refrain from commenting on any action taken by a government.


  30. #390
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    So New Hampshire was a bit surprising.

    Results:
    Sanders won with 25.7% of the vote, earning 9 delegates.
    Buttigieg got in second with 24.5%, also earning 9 delegates.
    Klobuchar came in third with 19.8%, and earned 6 delegates.
    The rest of the field didnt get enough votes to earn any delegates.

    This result is definitely surprising. Considering Bernie got 60% in 2016, I expected him to do way better. I am sure a bunch of Buttigieg fans will be annoyed at Klobuchar as her strong result probably took some votes from Buttigieg and prevented a first place finish.

    This stat from Politico also doesnt bode well:

    The percentage of young voters actually declined from 2016 to 2020 in New Hampshire, from 19 percent to 14 percent. Independents were a larger share of the electorate, but they did not break nearly as decisively for Sanders as they did in 2016. He received support from just 29 percent of self-described independents this time, as opposed to 73 percent (!) in 2016.
    Now I am really interested to see how Nevada and South Carolina play out.
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