It's a rare pleasure when I find myself realising I may have been quite wrong, but the success of the provincial elections in Iraq this last week has me reaching for the big spoon along with a hearty slice of humble pie.
There seems to have been a fundamental shift from the majority of the population towards nationalism and secularist parties. In a country close to implosion over religious fanaticism, that's a huge step away from the abyss.
The outcome of the election, which will probably be repeated in the parliamentary elections in December, marks a sea-change in Iraqi politics, with both the Shia and Sunni communities punishing the religious parties which flourished after the US occupation in 2003. The results are a clear endorsement of Mr Maliki who has managed to displace the militia of the Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, negotiated the withdrawal of 142,000 US troops during the next three years and confronted the Kurds. By stressing his nationalist credentials and success in improving security, Mr Maliki has gained the allegiance of the majority Shia community.
Prime Minister al-Maliki seems to have stepped up quietly into a position of some strength - not only through some courageous decisions (several of which I judged to be premature, like the face-off with al-Sadr, but he's pulled it off) but a clear dedication to a national, secular agenda. I think the commentator has it right - in a Putin-like manner, he is delivering security for most, which is the dearest wish of ordinary Iraqis. Credit is also due to President Bush finally appointing a Defence Secretary and a general who could do the job, and particularly General Petraeus. Even so, I concur that Maliki's hand has been strengthened by the actuality of the US withdrawal and the sudden realisation of the awful alternative which has dawned on people.
Of course, there is an awfully long way to go: national elections have more at stake, the position of the Kurdish north (excluded from these provincial elections because of fears of separatism) the influence of neighbours, the reality of US forces finally gone and the historical unwillingness in the region for a successful strongman to step down (and the related unwillingness of all those in receipt of his patronage to give it up for an unknown).
Nonetheless, as one who was convinced that the country would tear itself apart in civil war, and that the earlier this was allowed to happen the better, I am rather pleased to look so wrong. It was absolutely the wrong thing to prosecute the war, but since it happened, the hundreds of thousands killed by its mistakes deserve that their children grow up to live in a secure, reasonably democratic state.
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