2010 US Midterm Elections: Cast Your Votes

[PanzerJaeger]

Alright gentlemen, the Midterms are less than 10 days away and both sides are going all out to get their supporters to the polls.

Two years ago the GOP endured a historic rout based on Obama's sharp campaign, the economic collapse, and negative voter perceptions of the Bush administration after Hurricane Katrina and the War in Iraq. Many analysts predicted that the Republicans would have to spend many years and several elections cycles in the weeds retooling their message before they returned to power.

Yet just two years later, despite still record negatives and some poor primary choices, Republicans appear to be riding a wave of widespread disappointment with the incompetence of the Obama administration and fear over massive government spending.

Some relevant numbers...

Gallup has Obama sitting at 41% approval and 50% disapproval.

Realclearpolitics has 48 safe Democratic Senate seats, 44 safe Republicans, and 8 toss ups.

They also have 177 safe Democratic House seats, 222 safe Republicans, and 36 toss ups.

Finally, Politico suggests that early voting looks good for Republicans but not entirely bad for Democrats either.

So what's your verdict? Will Obama's majorities hold or will this be 1994 all over again?

Note: Vote what you think will happen, not what you want to happen.

[Lemur]

-edit-

In fairness, to answer the poll and OP: I have no idea. But the best polling seems to indicate a GOP house and a Dem Senate.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I'm going by what fivethirtyeight says.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house

[Strike For The South]

I know 2 things

They will try to impeach Obama (for what I have no clue)
Social issues are about to come back with avengance.

Many of these tea people only pay lip service to Libertarian ideals and are nothing more than social conservatives rebranded.

Needless to say I'm excited to hear about prayer in school, absistinece, and outlawing abortion.

[Odin]

I know 2 things

They will try to impeach Obama (for what I have no clue)
Social issues are about to come back with avengance.

Many of these tea people only pay lip service to Libertarian ideals and are nothing more than social conservatives rebranded.

Needless to say I'm excited to hear about prayer in school, absistinece, and outlawing abortion.

If they impeach obama i will throw tea into boston harbor and continue to pay lip service to my libertarian ideals. More so, I will continue my personal crusade against Chritianity and its dilluting effect on commonsense of a large segment of the voter base.

Prediction: Republicans take the house, dems keep the senate, obama begins deficit reduction and the economy picks up to 2-4% growth for 2011.

Preference: all incumbents on the ballot are defeated and replaced with citizens who have no idea what they are doing.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Egad, Strike, I hope not. Sadly, there probably are a few yahoos who would try it. The idea that Obama has done anything impeachable seems really silly to me. I may loathe many of his administration's policy efforts and more than one of his foreign policy themes, but I that's political opposition, not some sense of betrayal. How can he have betrayed me when he's doing more or less what he said he would do if he were elected and doing so through the legislative process? Far too many folks simply do not understand the idea of a "loyal opposition." We are the poorer for it.

Odin, I think you may have touched on something near and dear to my heart. I too strongly suspect that we would end up with better governance if we didn't elect people who sought the office, but rather SENTENCED people to the office who had no desire to be there. The difference in attitude would, I suspect, be salutory.

[Odin]

Odin, I think you may have touched on something near and dear to my heart. I too strongly suspect that we would end up with better governance if we didn't elect people who sought the office, but rather SENTENCED people to the office who had no desire to be there. The difference in attitude would, I suspect, be salutory.

In simple terms, putting people in office who have already been there is sentencing the country to more of the same. The older I get the more i realize there is no major difference between the 2 parties in applied policy. Granted the media makes a fair penny of expousing the differences but the direction we are heading in was a path started many decades ago.

The only alternative to continued stupidity is replacing incumbents with people who have no clue how washington actually works, but rather how it is supposed to work.

[Louis VI the Fat]

[Strike For The South]

If they impeach obama i will throw tea into boston harbor and continue to pay lip service to my libertarian ideals. More so, I will continue my personal crusade against Chritianity and its dilluting effect on commonsense of a large segment of the voter base.

Prediction: Republicans take the house, dems keep the senate, obama begins deficit reduction and the economy picks up to 2-4% growth for 2011.

Preference: all incumbents on the ballot are defeated and replaced with citizens who have no idea what they are doing.

Egad, Strike, I hope not. Sadly, there probably are a few yahoos who would try it. The idea that Obama has done anything impeachable seems really silly to me. I may loathe many of his administration's policy efforts and more than one of his foreign policy themes, but I that's political opposition, not some sense of betrayal. How can he have betrayed me when he's doing more or less what he said he would do if he were elected and doing so through the legislative process? Far too many folks simply do not understand the idea of a "loyal opposition." We are the poorer for it.

Odin, I think you may have touched on something near and dear to my heart. I too strongly suspect that we would end up with better governance if we didn't elect people who sought the office, but rather SENTENCED people to the office who had no desire to be there. The difference in attitude would, I suspect, be salutory.

Just watch fellas.

[Don Corleone]

I don't think the Republicans will take the House, and I certainly don't think they'll take the Senate, though they will gain a filibuster-sustainable minority.

I've become pretty cynical these days. I believe that the elections, and all the money pouring into the campaigns, are the true stimulus. No way to get people to open their checkbooks if they don't either believe 1) their guys are in jeopardy or 2) their guys are actually in play.

If the House was really up for grabs, they'd be doing more than having Obama trade snarky comments belittling the American people with John Stewart on the Daily Show. And Soros would be shelling out a lot more.

It's a ruse. On the morning of Nov 3rd, status quo. And Lemur... I may have been a year late... and I still owe you a 6-pack of Guiness... but did you happen to notice the talk coming out of the white house this week about ending the mortgage & child tax credits? If Obama was worried about losing the House, why the would he make a comment like that now?

[PanzerJaeger]

Democratic Closing Argument: Personal Attacks

Democrats Attack Over Personal Issues, Republicans Over Policy

By JONATHAN KARL

Oct. 28, 2010

It's not just the Aqua Buddha and David Vitter's prostitute, Democratic candidates across the country are closing out the campaign with personal attacks on Republican candidates, sometimes digging up decades-old legal problems.

In one typical example, Democratic ads have transformed Kentucky Republican House candidate Andy Barr into "a convicted criminal" -- complete with images yellow police tape and fuzzy video of crime scenes. Not mentioned is his crime: As a college student 19 years ago, he was caught using a fake ID during spring break.

As you watch this year's ads -- and I've been watching all too many lately -- you'll notice a striking difference between Democratic and Republican attack ads: Democrats are attacking over personal issues, Republicans are attacking over policy.

There are, of course, many exceptions, but the overall trend is clear. Democrats are hitting their Republican opponents over past legal transgressions, shady business deals and even speeding tickets. Republicans are hammering Democrats over "Obamacare," Nancy Pelosi and the economy.

A recent study by the Wesleyan Media Project actually quantifies this. They looked at 900,000 airing of political ads this year and concluded: "Democrats are using personal attacks at much higher rates than Republicans and a much higher rate than Democrats in 2008."

[Furunculus]

daniel hannan's warning to america:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articl...re_513320.html

[tibilicus]

daniel hannan's warning to america:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articl...re_513320.html

More garbage from Hannan then. The guys anti-European sentiment is getting old, he shakes with fear like a small child being told about a monster under the bed whenever the word "Europe" comes up. Not only does he not appreciate European culture, he doesn't appreciate the relative worth of the European model of politics. As you know, I'm no fan of socialism. But to assert that Europe went down a "road to ruin" by adopting Democratic socialism in its most minor form after the war is completely laughable and again shows Hannan need to brush up on his European history.

He is aware this "socialism" means European societies are more fair and progressive than the US? Or is that bad? I don't have a problem with Hannan being anti-EU, I understand that completely. But the whole anti-European thing is just getting ridiculous now. If Hannan loves the US system of doing things so much, why doesn't he jump ship and move to the states? I lost all respect for this guy after his pathetic attack on the NHS, he doesn't understand to distinction between a welfare state and socialism.

[Lemur]

Read and weep, 'cause this chick is spot-on when it comes to fiscal responsibility:

I worry that if Republicans get in, we'll end up with a huge budget problem. And I also worry that if Democrats retain control, we'll end up with a huge budget problem. I see no evidence at this point that I should worry more about one than the other. We have a huge deficit problem. And I'm pretty sure that whatever batch of politicians we elect next Tuesday is going to make it worse, rather than better.

Despite this depressing and likely accurate assessment, Imma gonna vote anyway. Even if I'm choosing between the unserious idiots with a D and the unserious idiots with an R.

[Crazed Rabbit]

I think there's reason to believe the GOP and gridlock will lead to less spending for the next couple years.

CR

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Does it really matter anymore?

Vote third party like I'll be doing tomorrow.

[Furunculus]

interesting read:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...olls-show.html

[a completely inoffensive name]

I think there's reason to believe the GOP and gridlock will lead to less spending for the next couple years.

CR

CR you should go into comedy. You have a knack for it.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

CR you should go into comedy. You have a knack for it.

I thought that was "common knowledge" for what that's worth. A quick google turns up this:

Here are the numbers: Between 1965 and 2009, the average growth rate of real per capita federal spending in the divided government years was 1.9%. For the years of united government, that average was 3.1%.

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/op...#ixzz143Ex8gaW

Is that misleading?

[a completely inoffensive name]

I thought that was "common knowledge" for what that's worth. A quick google turns up this:
Is that misleading?

I should clarify. I thought it was funny how his underlining sentiment was that it would be great if Congress was completely stalled when it came to decision making and spending. It's not like we have an economic downturn we still need to motivate, or various immigration, financial and energy reforms that will require funds to be moved around or even increased (I don't see how we can shift off of foreign oil without spending a lot of money) but yeah, I have reason to believe that with the GOP in charge of one house, everything will be just fine as the hose to put out the fire is cut off.

[Lemur]

A good thing to remind ourselves, as we wade through the final 24 hours of campaign hysteria. Apparently all of the quotes are legit. Is it wrong to wish for the days when political pamphlets waxed poetic about "children writhing on a pike"? Or candidates calling each other "hatchet-faced nutmeg dealers"?

[a completely inoffensive name]

A good thing to remind ourselves, as we wade through the final 24 hours of campaign hysteria. Apparently all of the quotes are legit. Is it wrong to wish for the days when political pamphlets waxed poetic about "children writhing on a pike"? Or candidates calling each other "hatchet-faced nutmeg dealers"?

I'm so glad how we haven't progressed beyond accusing the other side of rape in our nation's history. Also I am pleased to see how even when it is degrading behavior almost to an extreme, as long as the founders did it, then it is as American as apple pie and therefore we should tolerate it and promote it.

Don't vote for my opponent, he snorts cocaine off a hookers breast before shooting her in the face and having sex with her dead corpse, before moving on to do the same thing to your children. Oh look, I'm being a patriot now!

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Yes I agree...it bugs me when people respond* to disgusting political adds with "well that's politics" or my favorite "it's about time the democrats gave the republicans a taste of their own medicine!". It amazes me that people identify themselves as members of a party given what's out there sponsored by the parties. Just say you're a liberal who votes democrat.


*mind you lemur was just posting a funny video

[Devastatin Dave]

I think its safe to say,
We're buggered either way...

[Lemur]

[A]s long as the founders did it, then it is as American as apple pie and therefore we should tolerate it and promote it.

Actually, my takeaway from that video was that the founders did groundless personal attacks with a hell of a lot more style than we're seeing now. C'mon, "hatchet-faced nutmeg dealer"? I would kill to see some politico call another that today. At least they used to have a vocabulary.

[PanzerJaeger]

Holy crap. Palin is looking even better than ever.

Oh and... uhh... she's talking about the midterms or something...

[Louis VI the Fat]

Holy crap. Palin is looking even better than ever.

Oh and... uhh... she's talking about the midterms or something...

That's not an interview, that's a polical activist network providing a political platform. It remains stunning to watch the charade. The more they are instruments of deception, the more they feel the need to call themselves 'the truth' ('pravda'), or 'fair and balanced'. But let's not digress.



Palin: 'We gave you the two years, Obama, to fulfill your promise. Instead, you blew it'.

That pretty much sums it up. Obama lost the narrative. Somewhat helped by his own rhetoric, expectations have been blown way out of proportion. Anything short of Obama finding a cure for cancer and walking on water, and the story was going to be 'You Blew It!'. (This, in fact, has been the GOP narrative strategy since january 2009)




I, for one, think Obama has been excellent, much better than I had expected. He sat about to do as he had promised, and has shown himself a phenomenal statesman: calm, composed, contemplative. Decisive when need be too. He took the decisions that needed to be made regarding the economic recovery, Iraq, and healthcare.

All of this despite the GOP obstructing a normal political functioning well above and beyond what can be expected of an opposition party in a mature democracy. After all of that, me I'd vote out the Republicans.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

That's not an interview, that's a polical activist network providing a political platform. It remains stunning to watch the charade. The more they are instruments of deception, the more they feel the need to call themselves 'the truth' ('pravda'), or 'fair and balanced'. But let's not digress.

Oh let's!

Their other motto, along with "fair and balanced," is "we report, you decide." Actually, given their demographic, it's more accurately rendered as -- You decided, we report what you wanted to hear since that will get us more advert dollars.

[Lemur]

Nate Silver, whom I think we can all agree is cleverer than the average poll-smoker, gives his final odds:

Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last night’s forecast), and a median Republican gain of 55 seats. These figures would exceed the 52 seats that Republicans won from Democrats in the 1994 midterms.

Moreover, given the exceptionally large number of seats in play, the Republicans’ gains could be significantly higher; they have better than a one-in-three chance of winning at least 60 seats, a one-in-six chance of winning at least 70 seats, and have some realistic chance of a gain exceeding 80 seats, according to the model.

[Odin]

Obama lost the narrative. Somewhat helped by his own rhetoric, expectations have been blown way out of proportion. Anything short of Obama finding a cure for cancer and walking on water, and the story was going to be 'You Blew It!'. (This, in fact, has been the GOP narrative strategy since january 2009)

Well yes Louis you are correct, it is that simple he lost the narrative. Sadly when you run on hope and change and make promises that arent really applicable to the political reality of washington you own the expectations. The republicans played on it effectively, rinse repeat american politics at its core summarized nicely, bravo.

Im still voting libertarian and if there isnt one on the ballot in 12 I'll write your name in. I like the straight talk , oh wait wasnt that mccain?