Shimazu/Long/Hard: The Iron Dice are Rolling -- A Discussion of the Strategic Options

[Leptomeninges]

I've played a few Shimazu games, most recently on hard/long. I find them to be a very enjoyable faction both in terms of faction attributes and map position. As per the title of this AAR, I'm going to roll the dice on a few gambles in this campaign. But I'll tell you what they are and I'll tell you what I would have done if they failed. I've played this campaign past realm divide and seem to be winning, but in fairness the outcome hasn't yet been decided.

And so it begins. Shimazu calls for aggression from the outset and as such, I conquer Osumi immediately. I winter there, building ashigaru almost exclusively. Notice my army in the screenshot below. Katana are fun and interesting units, but right now I need numbers and I need them quickly. I upgrade very little infrastructure outside of my capitol's farm. Farms and getting a single port up to trading levels will ultimately be my infrastructure priorities. But right now I want to push. Armies created later won't be available when I need them so I ignore infrastructure and churn out cheap troops.

Similarly, my fist three techs are all from the Bushido side. I won't be upgrading infrastructure for several turns and the early military techs benefit ashigaru disproportionately as compared with the military impact of later game techs. There will be time enough for researching and building markets if I succeed and markets won't save me if I fail.



Hyuga falls next and quickly. Now comes the fun.



In this game, Sargara has conquered Bungo, converted to Christianity, and declared war on me. Some people like to ally with Sargera, but that's not for me. I prefer to maintain them as an enemy. In this case the Shoni (represented by a black rectangle in a circular white background in the screenshot) haven't declared war on me yet. It's possible that the Christian conversion impacted their willingness to join the war. I'm going to exploit this, but I'll explain what to do in a moment if you end up in a war against both.

I winter in Hyuga and push to the border in the spring. Bungo is empty. I take advantage and conquer.



(Incidentally, I recreated several of the battle screenshots for this AAR from saved games, but you'll notice both generals are gaining experience. I generally will position my second general to reinforce the first. In this fashion both generals gain experience from any fight. Obviously this is a huge boon in the late game.)

Let's consider the strategic knot that the Shimazu have to untie. Look at the screenshot below.



Bungo was empty, but I've uncovered a two stack Sargera army. Have a look at Higo and my empty capitol city, Satsuma. This is the problem. I'm fighting a two front war. On hard difficulty, at this point of the game Sargera will have a full, twenty stack army in addition to this two stack I've uncovered. I have an eleven stack army, now partially depleted.

I can't defend both fronts and Sargera can pick where to concentrate his force. If I'm fighting both the Shoni and Sargera at this point I have to fight a defensive battle until their energy is spent. The bridge just north of Satsuma is an excellent spot to hold. Small armies can fight off much larger ones on that skirmish map. And Satsuma with two recruitment spots can build reasonably quickly if needed. If I'm fighting both clans, I settle into a defensive posture at Bungo and that river until their energy is spent and I can push north.

But since I'm still only fighting Sargera I have another option. I'd really like to win this thing before Shoni enters the war. It's time to roll the iron dice. I'm going to gamble a bit here and I'm going to win, but my success isn't dependent on the gamble. If I fail it's fairly easy to fall into the defensive posture with an army generated from Satsuma at the river crossing I've described above. Don't underestimate your ability to hold off numerically superior forces at that river crossing.



I've chased the two stack into Sargera's territory. I'm exploring and probing, but there is another reason for me to do this. If I can stay within one movement turn of Higo, the twenty stack won't move to threaten Satsuma. I'm probing for an opening but more importantly I've moved here to keep the twenty stack in Sargera's own territory and out of mine. Have a look at my army. It isn't big.

And there it is. The two star general is Sargera's twenty stack army. The two stack I was following has ducked beind the hill to the right. But in coming out to threaten me, Sargera has left me a path I can just squeeze through to Higo.



The city is essentially undefended.



Now comes the twenty stack. They have a huge numeric advantage -- 2385 to 1024. In an open field with my battle skills the AI would demolish me. But fighting from a keep -- even a damaged one -- is a fight I can win.



Sargera is down and I now have a very significant foundation. The best part is that Shoni hasn't yet declared war on me. They're occupied on the continent. Let's take a look at the bigger strategic picture for a moment. Have a look at Satsuma at the bottom of the screenshot below. I've upgraded very little infrastructure so far -- just a farm and Satsuma's port. I've upgraded that port to allow for trade. You can see my boats moving into position by the trade nodes. Aside from those investments, most of my cash has gone to ashigaru. As I upgrade my infrastructure I'll upgrade farms, ports and trade resources exclusively. If I have an empty city slot I'll add a market. Due to the negative impact of food loss on empire growth, no castle gets expanded for a long, long time.

Notice that Bungo is black on the finance map below. This means that they are exempt from taxes. Bungo has a Nanban Trade Port that comminicates with the West and spreads Christianity. Since I'm not a Christian kingdom, this generates unrest. The reason Sargera converted to Christianity earlier in the game was in response to conquering this port and Christianity spreading through their kingdom.

Bungo is going to be a problem and I'll leave them tax exempt for a long time. For the moment I'm suppressing the province with the tax exemption and ashigaru. The other options are to burn the port or convert to Christianity. I haven't yet sorted out what I truly think is the optimal choice regarding Bungo's port, but in this game I'll address the "Christian problem" with a Buddhist temple and a pair of monks. They provide enough of a religous couterweight to gradually convert the province back to Buddhism.



Notice the trade screen on the screenshot below. I sent one of my bow boats to uncover Chosokabe while battling Sargera. I want Chosokabe to be my main ally entering realm divide. Developing from their island I can expect them to reliably become a medium strength power in contrast with the chaos of the northeast. They'll carry trade goods that I need (stone and wood) and at least in the near term help protect my flank. But at some point I'll stabilize a defensible front line against the northeastern clans and as my relationship with Chosokabe decays I'll turn and destroy them. All things in time. As I extend my right hand in friendship, I already hold the dagger in my left.



I've wintered in Higo and moved into an offensive posture, but essentially have the same army. You'll notice on the minimap in the top right of the screenshot below that I've occupied three trade nodes. The fourth at the bottom is always occupied by a minor power. It's usually easy to leave them as a placeholder while your naval resources are limited and pick up the trade node later after pirates or an enemy kill their insignificant fleet.



I'm about to go back to war. I'm going to expand too fast and pick up a negative diplomatic modifier. In the northeast this would be a huge problem from all the bordering clans. But for the Shimazu on their island, this is of little consequence. This is a game of war, and I'm interested in popularity only to the degree that it furthers my interests. I'm about to gamble again. But I know that the Shoni are at war with factions on the main island and from the minimap I can see that they've picked up a province there. Their main force will be there also. I know from experience that the Shoni will come for me sooner or later. I want the fight now when I'm ready and they are not.

I go to war with the Shoni. They are joined by a small clan -- the Ouchi.



Hizen to my left is empty. Tsukushi -- one of the wealthiest provinces in the game -- is defended by a three stack with a one stack adjacent. I split off my second general to conquer Hizen and send the rest of my force north to Tsukushi.

Two turns later Buzen is mine. There is a Shoni army still to conquer, but that's just mopping up.



Have a look at the diplomacy tool in the upper right of the screenshot above. I've sent a small boat to explore the main island. If I avoid contact with the those clans, I can soften the diplomatic blow of realm divide, but that's a little too "gamey" for me. I'd rather play it straight up. You'll notice that I've got the maximal number of trade routes possible. If there were additional clans that could trade with me I'd see a third category on the clan list when I sort it by trade (the third column). This is something I'll check almost every turn to ensure that I'm maximizing the trade potential of the island's ports.

It is turn 19 -- The Autumn of 1549.

Next up -- The Mainland -- Where to and How?

[Leptomeninges]

The big question with island factions is where to expand after conquering the starting island. I am a strong proponent of two things -- a land bridge and a single front. In my experience realm divide has been too challenging with multiple fronts on higher difficulty settings. This forces my hand somewhat as to the direction of expansion.

Look at the screenshot below. Ouchi (grey) still has one province on the mainland but they are sandwiched between Mori (red) to the north and Urukami (green) to the south. I know that Mori is at war with Ouchi, so I decide to jump quickly to grab that province before Mori takes it.

Also notice the buildings in Buzen at the bottom of the screenshot below. Buzen has a crafts trade resource. This improves the quality of archers developed here. There was already an archery range in Buzen and I burned the stables in the second slot to make a temple. The temple is there in the near term to provide a monk to suppress the Cristianity emanating from the Nanban trade port in neighboring Bungo. In the long term I'll create monk archers from the temple.

This also introduces another topic. Ultimately I'll add an encampment to Buzen to upgrade the archers further. This will require further expanding the castle which both adds another development slot, and makes the city defensively stronger. Because of this forced development on military resources and the empire-wide economic disincentives to create large castles if you can avoid it from the way castles consume food, the military resource provinces are doubly important. They are both troop production sites and defensive strong points. For this reason I'm already looking at Bizen (smithing) and Hoki (crafts) midway along the main island as my next targets of expansion.



Turn 23: I've just disembarked my army near Suo in the screenshot below. They are defended by a single general with no accompanying army. Their city is empty. It is winter and I am suffering attrition, but the reason I am here and Suo is denuded of troops is because the Mori army barely visible through the smoke to my left has just conquered the main Ouchi force. I am racing the Mori for this province. I want this foothold before entering a period of peace and building up my military resources for the island push.



Turn 25: I'm entering the first of two extended periods of peace I'll have in this campaign. In the mouseover tooltip of the screenshot below you can see that my quick expansion has hurt my diplomatic relations with a penalty currently quantified as -24. As I mentioned previously, I envision Chosokabe as my main partner after realm divide, so I've tried to shore up that relationship with a marriage to offset that penalty.



Turn 38: I've been building infrastructure and establishing trade relationships like mad. I'm a big believer in buying trade agreements with the major players if they won't accept them without an incentive. There are a few reasons for this. One is that trade agreements gain value the longer they are in effect. This is part of why I sought out Chosokabe so early. A second reason is that there is opportunity cost to having trade capacity go unused. A final reason is that each clan has a limited number of trade slots to offer -- particularly in the early game. I'd rather buy them than let a competing clan take them. Notice that my total export value is 6702.

Also notice in the sceenshot below that the Urukami and Mori are my second and third biggest trade partners respectively. It's going to hurt, but I want their provinces. Strategically it's the position I want to be in when realm divide hits.

You'll see one army to the left positioned to attack Nagato above. I know from my agent's scouting that Nagato is empty and this army is smaller than the one covered by the trade screen to the right about to attack Aki.



Incidentally, I can see from the diplomacy screen that I still haven't lost my "fast expansion" diplomatic hit. It's down to -11 from -24 at turn 25 decaying at one per turn.



Aki is mine. My smaller army hasn't yet reached Nagato.



Iwami is my next target. As near as I can tell it has the highest wealth potential of any province in the game. In the screenshot below you'll see the mouseover tooltip over the gold mining complex. There are two other provinces with gold resources, Izu and Sado. But Izu has no port and Sado has "barren" soil which is less favorable than the "meager" soil of Iwami. You'll also notice my ninja trailing along. I make extensive use of the "Sabotage Army" ability which immobilizes them for a turn. It makes it trivial for me to fight at the time and place of my choosing.



I really have four or five targets on the mainland right now. As described above, Bizen and Hoki are my top priorities. Iwami was my next priority. I know that when realm divide hits my trade income will plummet so I need alternative sources of wealth. My final targets are Mimasaka's iron resource (which I don't currently own except by trade) and possibly Settsu if I can make it before realm divide. Settsu has the Philosophical Tradition resource but more importantly is a strategic chokepoint on the map.

Turn 45: I'm finally closing around Hoki. One complicating factor is that Mori fell apart as I pushed in from my end of the island and a small clan (Yamana) was able to capture Hoki. I'm about to declare war on Yamana, but right now I don't care. I want that province for a troop production center near the main theater of conflict when realm divide hits. You'll see my ninja preparing the way for my conquest in the right of the shot above. When he "sabotages" Yamana's army (partially obscured by the green flag of Urukami's army), it is immobilized and will not reinforce Hoki when I attack.



On the minimap of the coming screenshots you'll notice that I'm exanding only along the upper border of the island, not the lower. There is a simple reason for this and it has nothing to do with the military strength of those provinces (Bingo and Bitchu). I know from my scouts that those cities are guarded only by token forces. The reason I've skipped them is the screenshot below:



Is is the Summer of 1556. I have just conquered Hoki and my "Clan Fame" bar in the middle of the above screenshot is rated as "Acclaimed." When the "Clan Fame" bar fills this triggers "Realm Divide." For those unfamiliar, this mechanic essentially causes the shogun to warn the world that you are a threat. My diplomatic relations with everyone (including current allies) will ultimately devolve to the point that I am at war with everyone. The biggest item which fills your "Clan Fame" bar is conquering provinces. Heroic military victories also add to it, but at a greatly reduced rate. On "Long" campaigns the bar takes longer to fill than on "Short" campaigns such that divide often triggers around 15 provinces on "Short" and around 18 on "Long." Every action I take right now is devoted to filling the bar as little as possible so I can reach Settsu without triggering realm divide. This includes immobilizing armies with my ninja that I could annihlate with my army. Right now I want to fight as little as possible. I want to enter Realm Divide at a time and place of my choosing.

Urakami continues to fall apart. They can offer only token resistance. I conquer Hoki (crafts), Mimasaka (iron resource), Bizen (smithing), and Harima. The only question is if conquering Settsu (chokepoint and philosophical tradition) will trigger Realm Divide. I've left Bingo and Bitchu behind (you can see them as a lighter green on the minimap) to avoid this.



Turn 53 -- Spring of 1558: I conquer Settsu with a fraction of my fame bar to spare. Right now my top priority is avoiding war at all costs. I fear that any victory might push my clan fame to realm divide. I want to build up my kingdom and be ready for the storm when it comes.



I also received an unusual notification the previous turn. The Black Ship has arrived.



Next up: The Black Ship and preparing for Realm Divide!

[Leptomeninges]

Reserved..

[Leptomeninges]

Reserved...

[Leptomeninges]

Reserved....

[Monk]

I love the new influx of AARs with Shogun 2. I dont comment often on them, but I usually read them

How would you rate the Shimazu on fun factor, Leptomeninges? I haven't played them yet, but they look like a blast!

[Leptomeninges]

I've found them to be a lot of fun. Struggling to know who to play next. Very tempted to try Chosokabe. I read your comments about having fun with them and like their position and bonuses. But for the sheer challenge I keep looking at Uesugi. I'm just not sure if the starting position will be such a headache that it will suck the enjoyment out of the game!

[Monk]

I've found them to be a lot of fun. Struggling to know who to play next. Very tempted to try Chosokabe. I read your comments about having fun with them and like their position and bonuses. But for the sheer challenge I keep looking at Uesugi. I'm just not sure if the starting position will be such a headache that it will suck the enjoyment out of the game!

Chokosabe were indeed pretty easy, but they were still a lot of fun. Though going from one islander clan to another, you might feel the game a bit similiar in nature to your Shimazu game. Uesugi are indeed very hard. You need to be on your toes 100% from the word go. If you're feeling bold, you might even want to try Takeda.

But I'm amazed by how quickly you moved in your most recent update. You make me feel absolutely terrible at this game. By the time I was in the position you are now I was close to 1570. Guess I love taking my time.

[HopAlongBunny]

Looks like a fun campaign!

How long do you think you can hold off RD? You look to be one defensive victory away from it.

[Leptomeninges]

I was able to pretty much hold it off indefinitely. I won a few heroic victories with this degree of clan fame against random enemies (pirates, the black ship, etc.) without entering RD. It wasn't until I actually took a province that it pushed. It would be easier to judge the impact of victories if you could see the bar move or if there were a numeric value associated with it.

I didn't turtle that long though. Maybe I should have waited for the land consolidation tech as others have. I dunno. I just get impatient I guess ;)