SYRIA thread

[spmetla]

Happens after every war, was gonna happen at some point with this one too. Just hope that like many 'old soldiers' types in formal wars that they count themselves lucky and try and put their war behind them. Sadly we know that no shortage of them will continue their fight for ideological reasons, as mercenaries, or just because they don't know or want to know another way of living.

At least it's no longer a recruiting beacon to assemble more followers, at least until the next radical Islamist cause requires another jihad.

[Fragony]

Focus should be on what Turkey is currently doing now, Kurds are so fucked

[Shaka_Khan]

https://news.sky.com/story/israeli-f...syria-11243648

Israeli fighter jet crashes after being 'shot down' during strikes against Iranian targets in Syria

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/10/m...ash/index.html

Israeli F-16 jet shot down by Syrian fire, military says

http://Syrian anti-aircraft fire sho... military says

Syrian anti-aircraft fire shoots down Israeli fighter jet, Israeli military says

[Crandar]

They had it coming. Not that this incident will stop them from meddling in Syria, it will only lead to more Syrian deaths in Israel's retaliatory airstrikes.

Meanwhile, Islamist twitter accounts previously crying over the Trump-Jerusalem issue are now calling for Israel to multiply the help it offers to rebels (including al-Qaeda). Shows how much hypocrisy is not monopolized by politicians, according to the dominant, populist narrative.

[Gilrandir]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...hters-in-syria

And Russian officials are denying everything.

[rory_20_uk]

I don't recall the USA regulating what their mercs did in Iraq and elsewhere.

I doubt Russia would be so stupid as attacking a base where USA troops were based.

[Strike For The South]

Russian mercenaries does not equal Russian Regulars.

[Crandar]

The article is a hilarious failure, it talks about more than 200 dead Russians , while even the Americans estimated a bit less than 100 in total. The source of Bloomberg is an anonymous official and a nationalist outlet that exaggerates the "humiliation", to escalate the situation. The real number is probably around 30 guys.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/13/m...ntl/index.html
https://www.thedailybeast.com/did-th...few?ref=scroll

The details of the incident remain unknown, although Kurds have already criticized the local Deir ez-Zhor military council (Arab deserters under the umbrella of SDF) for being more interested in raiding Syrian territory than fighting daesh.

[Montmorency]

Isn't loss by the offense, in a single action, in this proportion unheard of in contemporary warfare? Was it an assault, or a marching column?

Most of the casualties, according to local sources, appear to have been members of a pro-regime Christian militia from the town of al Suqaylabiyah. Earlier this week, there was a mass funeral for about 30 members of the militia -- which often describes itself as the "ISIS hunters" -- in the town.

Syllogism: Trump is anti-Christian.

The Baltic Cossack District said in a statement that Loginov was a Russian citizen who was killed in an "unequal battle" while "heroically defending our Fatherland in its far reaches from crazy barbarians" when he died on February 7.

"Vladimir died for the Fatherland, the Cossacks and the Orthodox faith!" the group said.

I support the beardy men killing each other. Just keep away from the rest of us.

Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the attack:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...=.4944cc4d8b6e

“We told them there is some movement, and we don’t like to … attack on this movement. They [the Russians] don’t accept our offer and denied, said there’s nothing happening,” Hassan said through an interpreter. He was speaking to several reporters who traveled here Thursday with Maj. Gen. James B. Jarrard, who oversees U.S. Special Operations forces in Syria and Iraq.

U.S. commanders attempted a similar de-confliction. According to a Pentagon statement Thursday, “Coalition officials were in regular communication with Russian counterparts before, during and after” the attack. “Russian officials assured coalition officials they would not engage coalition forces in the vicinity,” the statement said.

The attack began about 10 p.m., Hassan said, with pro-regime advancing troops under a volley of tank and artillery shells that landed about 500 yards from the positions occupied by the SDF and the American soldiers. Hassan said the ground-attack force included some Russians, who he believed were mercenaries. (Russia officially doesn’t have ground troops fighting here.)

Hassan said that as the carnage spread, the Russian liaison officer contacted him again, asking for a pause to collect the dead and wounded — from an attack he had earlier denied was coming. The Kurdish commander saw this as a breach of faith.

[Crandar]

It has happened before. According to reports, no shooting took place, only a marching column got bombed into oblivion. Keep in mind, of course, that most estimations talk about around 50 and 60 dead. The deadliest single action belongs to the Otaiba ambush, where 200 jihadists were eliminated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Otaiba_ambush

[Gilrandir]

The article is a hilarious failure, it talks about more than 200 dead Russians , while even the Americans estimated a bit less than 100 in total. The source of Bloomberg is an anonymous official and a nationalist outlet that exaggerates the "humiliation", to escalate the situation.
The real number is probably around 30 guys.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/13/m...ntl/index.html
https://www.thedailybeast.com/did-th...few?ref=scroll

The details of the incident remain unknown, although Kurds have already criticized the local Deir ez-Zhor military council (Arab deserters under the umbrella of SDF) for being more interested in raiding Syrian territory than fighting daesh.

This post is a hilarious failure. You deny the 200 and acknowledge 30, although you admit that the "details of the incident remain unknown" and both sources you refer to give 100 as a probable number. Though such confusion is to be expected, after an accurate account of Ukrainian nazis attacking a Mongol on a Barcelona subway train.

I have an access to a number of Russian sources (inofficial, of course) and all of them give approximately matching accounts of what happened and give the same number of casualties -from 150 to 200. Officially, no Russians are there, so there couldn't have been any casualties.

[Crandar]

The fact that you are still salty about me not sympathizing with the struggle of poor little and divided Ukraine undermines the quality of your arguments.
You didn't add anything new, you just repeated the claims of these unofficial Russian sources, whose credibility now you appreciate a lot, I wonder why. I already refuted the value of their testimony.

Meanwhile, another interesting analysis of the casualties. He's spot on about oil, the mercenaries of the Wagner group are more controlled by oil businesses than evil Putler, the Scourge of the Sons of Mazepa.
Around 60 to 80 casualties in total (similar to the US estimation), a quarter of which are probably Russian or Ukrainian citizens.

[Gilrandir]

The fact that you are still salty about me not sympathizing with the struggle of poor little and divided Ukraine undermines the quality of your arguments.

There are some people on these boards who share your attitude yet I have no problem with that. My attitude to you is determined by the manner of your debate: you are prone to throw about empty accusations which, when refuted by me, are not confirmed by the one who forwarded them.

As for the quality of my agruments, I may say the same about yours - your bias does the same to them. So in this we are equally unreliable. And since most people generally can't be free from having some emotional attitude to what they discuss their argument is always shadowed by it.

You didn't add anything new, you just repeated the claims of these unofficial Russian sources, whose credibility now you appreciate a lot, I wonder why. I already refuted the value of their testimony.

You gave 30 as the number, now it is 60-80. I see the tendency. If you go on refuting like that, in some time we may arrive at a different figure.

As for reliability of the sources I mentioned, I have been following them for several years (concerning war at Donbas), and they always gave figures later confirmed by many other sources from different quarters. If they generally agree on some figure it is a safe bet to abide by it. The data on the casualties in question were given by those who participated in the debacle and were aired (among others) by Strelkov/Girkin who is in the know of the fortunes of his former colleagues.

[Crandar]

Here we go again and again and again, and by then, it's like usual routine. Last time I repeat the same things.

I already addressed the reliability of Strelkov. My source clearly mentioned that the 60 to 80 victims corresponded to the total number of victims. Anticipating the difficulties certain someone faces when reading articles that oppose his worldview, I even explained that a quarter of them were Russians and Ukrainians. Explicitly.
So, you may reexamine the tendency. You are not going to like the conclusions, I am afraid.

Try to respond with substance, which will involve either you refuting my sources or claiming that Strelkov is the utlimate authority on the subject.

[Gilrandir]

Here we go again and again and again, and by then, it's like usual routine. Last time I repeat the same things.

I already addressed the reliability of Strelkov. My source clearly mentioned that the 60 to 80 victims corresponded to the total number of victims. Anticipating the difficulties certain someone faces when reading articles that oppose his worldview, I even explained that a quarter of them were Russians and Ukrainians. Explicitly.
So, you may reexamine the tendency. You are not going to like the conclusions, I am afraid.

Try to respond with substance, which will involve either you refuting my sources or claiming that Strelkov is the utlimate authority on the subject.

I can't respond with substance in your understanding of the word, I don't have any videos with mongols on Barcelona subway trains.

If you were attentive, you couldn't have missed my remark about multiple sources, and Strelkov was especially mentioned because this name says at least something to you. Here is a list of Wagnerian MIA on 7th of February in Hisham.

Pay attention to the number and to the fact that those were not KIA, but just missing AFTER all bodies and the wounded were accounted for.

As for reliabilty of my sources (uncluding the one that published the photo), I believe they are as (un)reliable as yours.

[Crandar]

Please don't denigrate the debate further. An internet image, at which everyone laughs, is not a proper answer to articles and professional analysis.
Let whoever is genuinely interested in the conflict discuss it peacefully, without being regularly perturbed by the latest invention of salty Ukrainian nationalism.

It was an action made by some rogue oil merchants, without the approval of the Russian command, so trust me, there's nothing exploitable for this. Crimea is gone and no inflated numbers of dead Russians in the Syrian desert is going to change that.

[Gilrandir]

Please don't denigrate the debate further. An internet image, at which everyone laughs, is not a proper answer to articles and professional analysis.

Like EVERYONE? Absolutely EVERYONE? In your link there is only ONE person (John Arterbury) who expresses A DOUBT whether the list can be genuine because of "high percentage of uncommon or even anachronistic" names on it. Others don't doubt or laugh, they just wonder.

So:
1. I'm not 100% sure of the list being genuine either.
2. I'm equally not 100% sure of the motifs of this John Arterbury and his attitude to the issue. As we know, it can greatly influence his take on the events.
3. I have no idea what qualification he has to judge about the typical and nontypical Russian names. For your (and his) information, recently (since perestroika and after) in Russia there has surfaced a fashion for antiquated names and many celebrities (and not only) call their children by names which were popular a couple of hundred years ago. I counted only five such names: Kondrat, Efim, Demyan, Eremey, Gordey - do you call it a high percentage? If half (or a quarter) of them were like that I might consider this argument.

Conclusion: as usual, there is much manipulation and slanting on your part, which you nevertheless call "professional analysis".

But if you wish something serious, here you go:
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs...oscow-s-intent

Let whoever is genuinely interested in the conflict discuss it peacefully, without being regularly perturbed by the latest invention of salty Ukrainian nationalism.

I see. Only Greek imperial Putinists have the right to express their opinionated thoughts on any question.

It was an action made by some rogue oil merchants, without the approval of the Russian command, so trust me, there's nothing exploitable for this.

Who said it was otherwise? I (and many others - which you would probably call "everyone') only differ in the number of casualties.

Crimea is gone and no inflated numbers of dead Russians in the Syrian desert is going to change that.

And this statement isn't denigrating the discussion in any way. What does Crimea have to do with Syrian events? If you want to continue in this line, let's say that Constantinople is gone and stop including mentioning it into the names of Greek football clubs.

[CrossLOPER]

1. I'm not 100% sure of the list being genuine either.

Unless there has been a spike in using really old names in the past 20 years, I don't think it is. I swear it looks like a list of my grandfather's friends from decades ago.

Gil, I know you're passionate, but please use reliable resources. Chukchik Chuckcha al-Chuchrik the mememaker is not an acceptable source.

[Gilrandir]

Unless there has been a spike in using really old names in the past 20 years, I don't think it is.

You don't know if there was a spike yet you put forward a claim?

I swear it looks like a list of my grandfather's friends from decades ago.

Gil, I know you're passionate, but please use reliable resources. Chukchik Chuckcha al-Chuchrik the mememaker is not an acceptable source.

If so, enumerate those names from your list. But one so passionate about using reliable sources would surely base his judgement on something more solid than the list of his grandfather's friends. So compare your list with this one, for example: http://www.babynamewizard.com/name-l...boys-in-russia

And also please enlighten me where I referred to the mememaker source.

[Fragony]

Why aren't we discussing what Turkey is doing?

[Gilrandir]

Why aren't we discussing what Turkey is doing?

Because it has been doing it for quite a time?

[Fragony]

Because it has been doing it for quite a time?

Providing IS with weapons yes, but not fully invading to whipe out Kurdish-militia's with very little concern for civilians. Syrian army is moving up Ingram and is bound to clash with Turkey, maybe even Russia will get involved then. The middle-east is such a mess it makes the Holy Roman Empire look stable

[rory_20_uk]

Leave the locals to it - no more Eeeeevil Western Imperialism! Treat them as equals in charge of their own destiny: sell them as much weaponry as they can afford. TO do anything else would be Paternalistic and probably discriminating.

Why on earth should we keep up to date which lot is killing which lot? We don't care about the wars in Africa or Asia and this hell hole seems self contained at the moment.

[Gilrandir]

Providing IS with weapons yes, but not fully invading to whipe out Kurdish-militia's with very little concern for civilians. Syrian army is moving up Ingram and is bound to clash with Turkey, maybe even Russia will get involved then. The middle-east is such a mess it makes the Holy Roman Empire look stable

Do you forget the Shield of Euphratus? The Turkish have been in Syria for more than a year. So im Westen nichts Neues.

[CrossLOPER]

You don't know if there was a spike yet you put forward a claim?

This would be where YOU provide proof that there WAS a spike, so that you can solidify YOUR claim that the list that YOU provided wasn't mememagic.

If so, enumerate those names from your list. But one so passionate about using reliable sources would surely base his judgement on something more solid than the list of his grandfather's friends. So compare your list with this one, for example: http://www.babynamewizard.com/name-l...boys-in-russia

And also please enlighten me where I referred to the mememaker source.

Gilrandir, what age would those boys be right now?

[Fragony]

Do you forget the Shield of Euphratus? The Turkish have been in Syria for more than a year. So im Westen nichts Neues.

Different operation, this is operation Olive Branch. Turkish troops are going to clash with Assad's troops who come to the aid of the Kurdish forces, bad. Turkey is a wild dog lately, hopefully a stray soon as the Nato can't get involved, the risk of pissing of Russia is too high

[Gilrandir]

This would be where YOU provide proof that there WAS a spike, so that you can solidify YOUR claim that the list that YOU provided wasn't mememagic.

Using the same logics one would say that a list of celebrities at an Oscar ceremony was a fake because it had Elijah Wood, Channing Tatum, Garth Brooks and Benedict Cumberbatch.

My proof is what I see and hear from the media and around me. When I was a kid all the names around me and those I heard on TV were usual Sergeys, Alexanders, Andreys, Olegs, Vyacheslavs and so on (with an admixture of typical Ukrainian Bogdans, Tarases and Oxanas). Starting with Perestroyka I began to encounter names which I could have seen before only in Russian classical literature of the XIXth century - Anastasia, Arhip, Agafya, Varvara, Nikita, Gleb, Agnia and so on. I can't say they were numerous - but they were in evidence which wasn't spotted before. Now I hear such names from time to time as well.

Now in the list I counted 5 out of 74 such names - which is not a pecentage to make a conclusion on the artificial nature of the list. If the compilers of the "fake" list were that stupid they would have included at least 20 of such strange names. And if they were wise they would have included none of them filling it with Vladimirs, Vladislavs, Antons, Igors and the like.

So even if the list is fake (which I don't rule out) the names on it can't serve as a clue to determine whether it was so.

Gilrandir, what age would those boys be right now?

You are right, this list is from 2015, but it only underscores the tendency that I noticed about 25 odd years ago.

Different operation, this is operation Olive Branch. Turkish troops are going to clash with Assad's troops who come to the aid of the Kurdish forces, bad. Turkey is a wild dog lately, hopefully a stray soon as the Nato can't get involved, the risk of pissing of Russia is too high

Operations are different, yet the pattern is the same - overrunning a part of another country.

[rory_20_uk]

Different operation, this is operation Olive Branch. Turkish troops are going to clash with Assad's troops who come to the aid of the Kurdish forces, bad. Turkey is a wild dog lately, hopefully a stray soon as the Nato can't get involved, the risk of pissing of Russia is too high

It would be hard to claim defence when you mount an offence in a different country. Unless you're the USA of course and then invading on the other side of the planet is defence.

[Fragony]

Operations are different, yet the pattern is the same - overrunning a part of another country.

Turkey has a history of doing a bit more than just that

[Crandar]

What the hell is a "Greek Imperial Putinist"? A Byzantine on kryptonite?

Anyway, an assault against the Islamist warlords of eastern Ghouta is probably imminent. Brace yourselves for the upcoming media propaganda.

The equivalent of Bana Alabed has already been invented and Guardian is dropping innumerable tears for the civilian casualties caused by the Syrian Army, conveniently omitting those of the other side or forgetting to mention that we are talking about a siege, where the besieged are Islamists, including al-Qaeda.
I predict many pundits, paid by the Emirs of the Persian Gulf, appearing out of the woodwork to cry about Obama's red lines and how morally bad is that we don't invade countries anymore. For the sake of the children and democracy, of course!