Catalonia

[Gilrandir]

I was trying to secede from this thread because looking for your statistics prevents me from getting actually important work done.
Can't you just let me go? All I want is some self-determination regarding my being part of this thread...

I like it when YOU have to prove your point with MY statistics.

[Husar]

I like it when YOU have to prove your point with MY statistics.

That was for the generic point, which was rather superfluous in hindsight, given that S&P wants to downgrade Catalonia specifically in case of independence anyway. https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053761440

Not to forget that the business insider article two posts before that predicts very bad economic times for the entire region if they get independence without EU membership. So it was kind of a superfluous distraction trying to make a generic point about how well independence works economically.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If a people desire freedom you have two options:

1. Give it to them.

2. Violently suppress the separatists.

Spain has opted for option 2 prematurely, the referendum turnout was low, below 50%, and it's by no means clear that a majority of people in Catalonia want Independence. The low turnout gave Spain some wiggle room, but by sending in paramilitaries to drag people out of polling stations they lost that wiggle room.

An Independent Catalan Republic is now almost inevitable within five years.

That's extremely awkward for the EU in the middle of Brexit because the number and size of the EU states might not be the same in twelve months and if Spain can't hold onto Catalonia it can't claim Gibraltar.

[Husar]

If a people desire freedom

That's not even very clear. From previous polls, the people of Catalonia are very divided on that and you have to consider that the vast majority of the Stay-camp had no reason to attend a referendum that was illegal anyway in their eyes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...Public_opinion
http://www.politico.eu/article/catal...or-drops-poll/

Apparently there is also the option to make Spain a federal state. The full independence only seems to be favoured by 34.7% of Catalans according to their own public research.

Another question that came to mind is why do many countries want a 2/3rd majority or thereabouts for constitutional changes, but the enormous changes brought about by joining or leaving a union of any kind only require a 51% majority? IMO even joining or leaving the EU should be at least as big a deal as changing the constitution of a country. Perhaps "my beloved" EU would be smaller and/or less developed today if that were the case, but also perhaps more stable and united.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's not even very clear.

I agree, which you would know if you'd read more than the first two sentences of my post.

Apparently there is also the option to make Spain a federal state. The full independence only seems to be favoured by 34.7% of Catalans according to their own public research.

Spain is already quasi-Federal - the problem here is that, by and large, only those wanting independence seem politically active on this issue. (90% in favour on a, what, 43% turnout? About 35% isn't it?

Another question that came to mind is why do many countries want a 2/3rd majority or thereabouts for constitutional changes, but the enormous changes brought about by joining or leaving a union of any kind only require a 51% majority? IMO even joining or leaving the EU should be at least as big a deal as changing the constitution of a country. Perhaps "my beloved" EU would be smaller and/or less developed today if that were the case, but also perhaps more stable and united.

Excellent question - with joining the EU I'm sure the answer is that very few countries would actually join.

This crisis is extremely serious for the Spanish Government, if they cannot hold onto Catalonia then the Basques will agitate for Independence, and if they don't get a referendum ETA may start back up. Valencia might go after that and from there things could snowball until "Spain" is just Castille-Leon.

[Husar]

I agree, which you would know if you'd read more than the first two sentences of my post.

That is actually true and I have no explanation other than something must have distracted me.
Can't hurt to have some poll numbers though.

Spain is already quasi-Federal - the problem here is that, by and large, only those wanting independence seem politically active on this issue. (90% in favour on a, what, 43% turnout? About 35% isn't it?

38.7%
The difference between federal state and autonomous regions also seems a bit unclear to me. I'm assuming with the autonomous regions they all have slightly different rights whereas in a federal state, the rights of the smaller states would be outlined somewhere and be more standardized.

Excellent question - with joining the EU I'm sure the answer is that very few countries would actually join.

This crisis is extremely serious for the Spanish Government, if they cannot hold onto Catalonia then the Basques will agitate for Independence, and if they don't get a referendum ETA may start back up. Valencia might go after that and from there things could snowball until "Spain" is just Castille-Leon.

Isn't that a very sad thing to happen almost anywhere in Europe? I could swear someone said it's the nation state that brought peace to Europe, so are we looking at a return of war to Europe?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That is actually true and I have no explanation other than something must have distracted me.
Can't hurt to have some poll numbers though.

It's OK, I've been busy writing a PhD and chatting to pretty girls on Discord (100% of this is true) and you've doubtless been subjected to a lot of waffle in my absence.

38.7%

That's probably within margin of error then, given we don't have the actual results yet. It's also higher than the percentage of the electorate that voted to leave the EU in the UK, which was 37.4718%. However, there the turnout was higher and the vote much more orderly which allows the Leave camp to argue that everyone who wanted to vote was able to.

The difference between federal state and autonomous regions also seems a bit unclear to me. I'm assuming with the autonomous regions they all have slightly different rights whereas in a federal state, the rights of the smaller states would be outlined somewhere and be more standardized.

I'm not sure there is a big difference - Catalonia has its own Parliament, President and Police Force already, a "Federal Spain" might hand them more law-making powers, perhaps, but that's probably about it.

Isn't that a very sad thing to happen almost anywhere in Europe? I could swear someone said it's the nation state that brought peace to Europe, so are we looking at a return of war to Europe?

I don't know - certainly Beskar (and other Europhiles) have argued for the effective abolition of Nation-States within the EU and plans are afoot to assign Britain's seats in the EU Parliament to cross-border Franco-German constituencies.

[Sarmatian]

From what I've been hearing from a friend who lives in Barcelona, the result is in no way representative - after the Spanish police confiscated the ballot papers, they were posted online and people were encourage to print their own. Additionally, they were told to go to a different polling station if their's was closed, which means the same person could have voted several times in different polling stations.

It would explain the results which in no way correlate to actual sentiments of the population, even if we take into account low turnout and the fact that those wanting to secede will be much more active.

The gist of it is:

1) Catalonia has no army
2) It has no support among major countries near or far
3) its economy would suffer a lot if out of Spain
4) it would take a lot of time to negotiate free trade agreements with neighbouring states, even if we assume all neighbouring states would be willing to do it
5) A lot of instability would naturally affect revenues from tourism

We can either assume the people organising this were complete idiots, OR that this was just a way for local politicians to score popularity points.
This is really NOT how you go about getting your own country. The only way this could have maybe possibly worked is if response from Madrid was highly disproportional, like tanks and gunships with Catalans taken into camps. A few select arrests and a few broken noses isn't going to cut it.

[Gilrandir]

I've been busy writing a PhD and chatting to pretty girls on Discord (100% of this is true)

100% of pretty girls? Are only pretty girls allowed to register?

I'm not sure there is a big difference - Catalonia has its own Parliament, President and Police Force already, a "Federal Spain" might hand them more law-making powers, perhaps, but that's probably about it.

From what I heard it is more about taxes being left in Catalonia than about anything else.

From what I've been hearing from a friend who lives in Barcelona...

Say what? Sarmatian relying on words of ONE EMOTIONALLY INVESTED person from within the whirlwind of events? Someone, pinch me.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

100% of pretty girls? Are only pretty girls allowed to register? ... Someone, pinch me.

[PINCH] [/PINCH]

And PVH, as the determinant of 'pretty' based on his own sense of the aesthetic in that moment, is of correct of course. Though why he then chose to sow Discord among them I know not...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

From what I've been hearing from a friend who lives in Barcelona, the result is in no way representative - after the Spanish police confiscated the ballot papers, they were posted online and people were encourage to print their own. Additionally, they were told to go to a different polling station if their's was closed, which means the same person could have voted several times in different polling stations.

It would explain the results which in no way correlate to actual sentiments of the population, even if we take into account low turnout and the fact that those wanting to secede will be much more active.

The gist of it is:

1) Catalonia has no army
2) It has no support among major countries near or far
3) its economy would suffer a lot if out of Spain
4) it would take a lot of time to negotiate free trade agreements with neighbouring states, even if we assume all neighbouring states would be willing to do it
5) A lot of instability would naturally affect revenues from tourism

We can either assume the people organising this were complete idiots, OR that this was just a way for local politicians to score popularity points.
This is really NOT how you go about getting your own country. The only way this could have maybe possibly worked is if response from Madrid was highly disproportional, like tanks and gunships with Catalans taken into camps. A few select arrests and a few broken noses isn't going to cut it.

The first 4 points also obtained for my country, then non extent, as of 1 April 1775. The geography is quit different though.

[Sarmatian]

Say what? Sarmatian relying on words of ONE EMOTIONALLY INVESTED person from within the whirlwind of events? Someone, pinch me.

And I knew you're gonna go wild on this :). Does that make me clairvoyant? Hmm, something to think about...

Anyway, he's not emotionally invested, he's Serbian.
Secondly, it's a possible explanation of WHY there is such a huge discrepancy between multiple independent polls conducted in the last few years and actual referendum results.

The first 4 points also obtained for my country, then non extent, as of 1 April 1775. The geography is quit different though.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here - that the colonies had all that or that they didn't?

[Gilrandir]

And I knew you're gonna go wild on this :).

Not wild but increduluos.

Anyway, he's not emotionally invested, he's Serbian.

I don't believe an outsider can live somewhere long enough to be aware of the local sentiment and be indifferent to what is going on around him.

[Gilrandir]

[PINCH] [/PINCH]

Ouch ouch

And PVH, as the determinant of 'pretty' based on his own sense of the aesthetic in that moment, is of correct of course. Though why he then chose to sow Discord among them I know not...

AFAIK, Discord is about voice chatting. Not sure there is video, that's why I expressed my doubts.

[Sarmatian]

Not wild but increduluos.



I don't believe an outsider can live somewhere long enough to be aware of the local sentiment and be indifferent to what is going on around him.

Doesn't matter. I still love you.

[Gilrandir]

Doesn't matter. I still love you.

Can't claim the same after those pinches from Seamus.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here - that the colonies had all that or that they didn't?

I am saying that of the 5 points noted as problematic for an independent Catalonia, the first 4 also obtained at the start of the American independence movement in the 1760s. Tourism was not an industry in the New World at the time, so that one didn't matter. I think the first 4 arguably apply in all secessionist efforts. The move for independence happens in spite of those short term difficulties.

I did note that the strategic situation was different. Throwing off the yoke is at least a BIT easier if you are 3-6 weeks distant from the 'mother' country you seek to leave. Catalonia does not have that advantage.

[Greyblades]

Hoping for a Louis XVI to intervene and bankrupt himself saving them is a tad overly optimistic.

[Husar]

Hoping for a Louis XVI to intervene and bankrupt himself saving them is a tad overly optimistic.

I was about to say I'm not sure whether the French will provide the Catalans with gunpowder for their muskets this time around.

[Montmorency]

Hundreds of thousands march for union.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Hoping for a Louis XVI to intervene and bankrupt himself saving them is a tad overly optimistic.

And don't forget the Dutch bankers...

Besides, Louis' bankruptcy was only partially on our behalf. He ended up fighting what some would argue as the first truly global conflict against England by intervening.

[Sarmatian]

Doesn't matter. I still love you.

I take that back. Losing to Croatia? At home? This hurts me more than it hurts you.

[Gilrandir]

I take that back. Losing to Croatia? At home? This hurts me more than it hurts you.

Transferring your derision onto the one who is not responsible for what happened? + Bad call #2. Derailing the thread? After what has been specifically said by the powers-that-be?

As for the loss:
Some people here claim that it was a cunning ruse: if Ukraine made it to the World Cup held in Russia it would face a dilemma - to play on the enemy's territory (which shouldn't be done in view of what has happened and is still happening) or to refuse to go and get FIFA's hackles up. So losing the game has removed all those doubts and frustrations in one sweep.

[Pannonian]

Transferring your derision onto the one who is not responsible for what happened? + Bad call #2. Derailing the thread? After what has been specifically said by the powers-that-be?

As for the loss:
Some people here claim that it was a cunning ruse: if Ukraine made it to the World Cup held in Russia it would face a dilemma - to play on the enemy's territory (which shouldn't be done in view of what has happened and is still happening) or to refuse to go and get FIFA's hackles up. So losing the game has removed all those doubts and frustrations in one sweep.

This just shows that Ukrainians and Russians are two completely different breeds. Russians, if the world cup were played on Ukrainian soil, would have seen this as an opportunity to invade foreign territory and smash up their cafes (cf. France 2016). Extra bragging points if they get the chance to confront the (in)famed English too.

[Gilrandir]

This just shows that Ukrainians and Russians are two completely different breeds. Russians, if the world cup were played on Ukrainian soil, would have seen this as an opportunity to invade foreign territory and smash up their cafes (cf. France 2016). Extra bragging points if they get the chance to confront the (in)famed English too.

Not denying the first statement I would like to mention that the theory I offered was no more than a speculation which aims to justify the defeat. It would still be an awkward situation if Ukraine won, though. Something like Eurovision 2017.

[Husar]

Looks like Puigdemont didn't dare declar independence yet. After 20 minutes of teasing and a seeming intensification towards a declaration, he said he will delay any declaration because there wasn't enough dialogue yet in Catalonia and Spain and because the international community requested more dialogue.

So I guess they're not ready to go full frontal against Spain and don't quite see the international support that they would need to succeed.
Is that a first step towards a withdrawal without losing face? Actual request for more dialogue or really just a delay of an inevitable declatration of independence?

IMO the latter seems rather unlikely, it looks more as though they just didn't get anyone to back them but less than half the local population, so they can easily foresee a desaster if they unilaterally try anything. An internationally observed dialogue with Madrid however, may give them a chance to get more independence as they may have more sympathies for that now given that the world saw Spanish policemen beat Catalans. Of course they had to find some reason to not declare independence as per their own law/promise...

A successful negotiation about the region's rights would seem to be the best outcome to me and outside of whining about taxes (which was also in the speech) I think it's only fair for Spain to respect their local traditions etc.

[Sarmatian]

Spanish government demands Catalonia leader clarify independence declaration

I think I'd explain it to Rajoy this way - if you wake up after spending the night with a girl for the first time, and you have to ask her are you a still virgin, you probably are.

In this case, it's the other way around - if you have to ask whether they declared independence, they probably didn't.

On a serious note, nice move by Rajoy. Catalan government can say "yes", Spain invokes article 155 of the constitution, Catalan government gets disbanded and leaders arrested. If they say "no", the matter is settled and Catalan leaders kiss their political careers goodbye. Their best bet at this moment is to stay silent and ask for a dialogue, hoping that Madrid will give them a face-saving way out of this mess.

I'm not sure Madrid will be that accommodating.

[Gilrandir]

A possible solution?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...onia-s-problem

[Seamus Fermanagh]

A possible solution?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...onia-s-problem

I suspect that something along those lines is exactly what Spain/Catalonia will end up with. But it will have to be done "second track" as the official players are now trapped by their own public stances.

[Gilrandir]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1CP0SB

Wouldn't it sway those Catalonians who are still in doubt to swell the independence camp?