French Presidential Election

[a completely inoffensive name]

The Socialist party has lost it's incumbent president and has no chosen nominee yet.

The Republicans have chosen Filion.

Now please tell me how Le Pen has absolutely no chance. Is right wing populism just a 2016 fad?

[Brenus]

That is because Media play the same than in US and UK. Ignoring other candidates in order to create the fear factor, then it will be the usual blackmail Le Pen or else.
So, the else, whoever, will be elected.
But there is one outsider who can change the rules...
The rejection by the French of the oligarchy (thanks to the Sarkolland's policies) is so intense that Le Pen might be elected (for the same reason Trump was elected, Corbyn and brexit), but then she will have to get a majority in the Assembly. And this is another story.

[Greyblades]

The establishment just needs to keep doing what it is doing: deny and downplay a few more terrorist attacks, rape gangs, crime increases and le pen will be in.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The establishment just needs to keep doing what it is doing: deny and downplay a few more terrorist attacks, rape gangs, crime increases and le pen will be in.

A fair point. While conservative and nativist elements tend to overplay these episodes, progressives and tranzies tend to downplay them too far. With Trump and Brexit, there was enough backlash to shift things.

However, Brenus makes a telling point regarding the legislature. Trump may not like the establishment GOP all that much, nor they he, but both will work together more readily than would a Trump executive with a partially or wholly Dem legislature.

[edyzmedieval]

Valls is the Socialist key. He's by far the most high profile member of the Socialist Party, and he stands a reasonable chance in the election.

[Brenus]

"Valls is the Socialist key. He's by far the most high profile member of the Socialist Party, and he stands a reasonable chance in the election." Not a chance. He is the man who used the 49.3 too many times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articl...h_Constitution

He is part of the Government that gave money to rich, voted oppressive laws against workers, put unionists in jail whereas Lagarde can go free after conviction. No leftists will vote for him, and righists have their own in Fillon: 600 000 more unemployed from 2012, 1 french on 7 under the poverty level, 800 000 families on the minimum benefits scheme (RSA).

The only way for Fillon and Valls to convince the French to vote for them is the fear factor (Le Pen). I don't think it will work. Not any more. Game over.