Voting "no lynch" in the early game feeds right into mafia goals. The mafia wants to be the only ones killing early on so as to minimize the chance of early investigations identifying one. The time for "no lynch" votes, if ever, is in the mid to late game when investigation suspects have been narrowed. Moreover, your assumption of one mid-game lynch in your metric is optimistic in practice. Read over some of Sasaki's comments on the no lynch route.
Populus squirmed enough for now. Unvote: Populus; Vote: Montmorency.
You're just too willing to let the mafia set the pace. Believer too, with his minimal vote support and third on the bandwagon status, also bears some evaluation.
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