C9++ - The Revenge of the Russo [Concluded]

[Earthling]

Care to explain?

This also goes for anyone asking what they're missing on figuring out the game setup.

Before I go on, Diamondeye still doesn't make sense to me but he did remind me of one thing I'd missed, a serial killer would be kill immune as in the setup and doesn't fear death at night by mafia/vig, only the lynch, so anyone could be a serial killer and be more aggressive in thread, particularly if they felt the town needed to be rallied to beat the mafia. I don't get his votes but recognize I was withholding points earlier until more people showed up so his response to me is ok, so long as we lynch a mafia today.

On the setup/strategy, here's simply what we know:

With the number of town roles already, the setup would have three mafia.

Three kills last night as far as I can also tell means either mafia, town vig, and SK, or mafia and two vigs. I think two vigs (or vig +1-shot vig) is much less likely, if it's true that means we're just better off and can get lucky even though they failed last night.

There's always the very small chance there are still more town roles, than the Doctor, Blocker, Mason/Child, and Vig we already have, in which case we move further down the setup possibilities, but still 3 mafia and probably still an SK, and too remote a chance to think about.

So 3 Mafia + 1 SK is worst case for the town but also most likely, I think we have to work with that.

Then Cahoma is confirmed Innocent. Any townie knows what they are obviously. That just leaves 6 people so very, very good odds that anybody you could lynch just turns up as a scum. That alone is all that's needed for a wagon on Zack, or you TLD, really, but Zack is the default to me because he got saved from the lynch yesterday and a townie was lynched, so why not guess some of those voters were mafia.

The real question is what happens tonight. Could be 2 or 3 kills, if people target the same victims then fewer, or if someone targets the SK he doesn't die. But what we want for the town is 2 mafia dead before the next day or they're too close to controlling the lynch. 1 mafia, the SK, 3 townies for 5 remaining is still a chance (for everyone, really, but at least town is still in it). That's what we want, hopefully the SK sees the need for at least one mafia to die too because they could straight outvote him too.

[Diamondeye]

I know this comes out of the blue, but Earthling makes a helluvalot of sense right now. I'm going to replace my vote since the gingerbreadman was just making fun of me anyway.

Unvote; Vote: Zack.

[TheLastDays]

Earthlings post does make sense.

I'd like to hear Winston's reasons for his vote though, as it came before, and especially I'd like him to talk about why he just went on throwing out accusations without explanation when I first asked him for his reasoning.

[Visor]

Vote: Zack

[Visor]

I'm willing to follow Earthling on his theory for today.

[Zack]

Man, you people jump at any chance you have to lynch me.

[Zack]

Oh, and I'm the backup doctor btw.

[Johhog]

It was a dark and windy Night, and the townspeople thought it was too cold to check each other's houses and protect each other. That was fatal, because in the morning they found two dead bodies.

Cahoma, Innocent Child, was killed Night 2.
Oh! TheLastDays!, Mafia, was killed Night 2.

Day 3 starts now. The deadline is

[TheLastDays]

a brief “Bah!”-type post that contains NO game related information.

[Cahoma]

I was just a little child! YOU MONSTERS!

Waaaaaaaaaaah!

[Zack]

Should've gone with my lynch choice yesterday.

[Zack]

From the information I know (dead people, number of nightly kills, and my own role), I suspect that this is the setup:

DDMBVTT

DD: Doctor (hero di classico) + Backup Doctor (Me)

M: Innocent Child (Cahoma)

B: Roleblocker (robbiecon)

V: Vigilante (?) -- determined since there is one mafia kill and one SK kill per night, yet an additional kill has been evident each night.

TT: Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather (Mafia); Serial Killer (Doc Bypass, Block Bypass, Kill Immune, Investigation Immune) -- I don't know of any other roles, so this is the conclusion I have come to.

Now, the following are the remaining roles that are still alive:

Backup Doctor -- Me
Vigilante -- ?
Mafia Goon/Roleblocker/Godfather (pick one) -- ?
Mafia Goon/Roleblocker/Godfather (pick one) -- ?
Vanilla Townie -- ?

And here are the remaining players:

Earthling
Diamondeye
Zack
Visorslash
B_Ray

Since Earthling, Diamondeye, and myself have all shown a clear attempt to try and figure out the game, its setup, and the alignment of other players, and Visorslash and B_Ray have not made as clear an attempt to do so, I conclude that Visorslash and B_Ray are likely the two remaining scumbags.

Vote: B_Ray

Voting analysis to follow.

[Zack]

Oh, and I must have been roleblocked last night, as I tried to protect Cahoma. Since TheLastDays died, I think it's safe to say that the Mafia Roleblocker is still alive, and that TLD was either the Godfather or the Goon.

[Zack]

Visorslash

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Day 1

Vote: B_Ray

Typical scum move: distance yourself from your teammate by outright voting them at the very beginning of Day 1, when there is little risk of them actually being lynched.

Because I can indulge in OMGUS.

Unvote; Vote: hero di classico

Switched his vote off of B_Ray to assure his buddy wasn't lynched -- better safe than sorry.

Day 2

Vote: Zack

Without any comment, jumps on the bandwagon. He was third. Hmmm.

I've been quiet because I've been out for most of the day yesterday, and I will be as well today.

Unvote; Vote: O! TLD!

I'M the scummy bandwagoner? For shame.

Unvote;

But that is the way you always play. I'll be back later today and see what's happened. I don't see the case on me though.

Quiet? Total indicator of scum. Please kill me immediately because I am oh-so suspicious because of that.

Bandwagons? ONE. On Zack, who you had posted a good case on at the time.

So yeah. That's it.

Again, see what I said about his vote and unvote against B_Ray. Here, Visor votes for his scum buddy, then immediately unvotes, as there is a good chance TLD could be lynched (and he almost was).

@ Cahoma
You may be right.

See, Visor is looking for any chance to cast suspicion on me. After all, mafia tend to dislike doctors.

Quoting posts is tiresome, so I'm just going to summarize what I see for now. If you want to find the quotes, feel free to do so.

Visor keeps posting these tallies to make sure that TLD isn't lynched, since he's so close to the lead.

Visor again votes for TLD, then again switches off of him.

TLD votes for Visor -- TLD saw the bandwagon coming on Visor, then jumped on the bandwagon to make himself look town. Unfortunately for TLD, he didn't survive the night. Fortunately for the town, it looks like this careful voting was to ensure that TheLastDays -- the Godfather? -- wasn't lynched, and Visorslash -- the Goon? -- was, as he was deemed much more expendable, due to the nature of the goon's role, the numbers the mafia had (2 is still very, very good for only 5 players left), and to give TLD some serious town cred.

Visor votes for Earthling, someone who already has a vote, to try and catapult him ahead of himself and TLD. I also think it's interesting to note that Visor never comes up with his own cases, he just jumps on a case someone else already made.

Wrong faction. Try serial killer.

(Had to quote this, due to the importance.)

PIS! PIS! PIS!

Visor knew that Winston wasn't mafia, and that he was a serial killer!

Oh, and Visor used the rolleyes smiley at one point. Rolleyes = scum.

[Zack]

Actually, looking back in hindsight, I'm not so sure that Earthling or Diamondeye aren't scum. They both voted for Winston, someone who was accusing TLD, and neither ever accused TLD, nor did TLD ever accuse either of them. I need to take a break, I'll be back to talk later. Someone else post, this is getting ridiculous.

For now, Unvote.

[Earthling]

I'm here, and I'll vote: Visorslash. Visorslash is clearly mafia, and that gives us three townies to the one mafia left so we should get it anyway. I think it's him and B_Ray, rather than Diamondeye who I'll give benefit of the doubt, can't be entirely sure but that's what I'd go with.

This is kinda hilarious though, that Cahoma was actually killed. Mafia, y u so bad?

They could have roleblocked or killed the town vig, as they had only like, two people to choose from, but they must have blocked Zack to be able to kill Cahoma.

Pretty much everything you said does seem right to me Zack, including the DDMVB which is pretty certain now, this was a fun if bloody setup with so many killers.

[Visor]

I have made no attempt to work out the setup, in the thread. I have a word document on my computer with notes and stuff I can copy and paste here if you like.


Because we have TTDDVBM

That's 7 players, and it points to the three mafia and SK so that's 11 players. So there will actually be an extra vanilla townie.

And I claimed serial killer yesterday for a number of reasons:
I didn't want to be killed. . I had just helped the town to another loss on another game on TWC *as town*, so any chance I could take to evade the lynch and thereby help the team was a choice I would take. Unfortunately, or fortunately as some may see it, we lynched the actual serial killer.
I knew I was safe for tonight because I had claimed serial killer.

I'll make a lynch vote later, plenty of time to decide.

[Earthling]

And you're claiming you are what now...?

[Visor]

When did I say I was claiming anything? (Now )

@ Zack

(Had to quote this, due to the importance.)

PIS! PIS! PIS!

Visor knew that Winston wasn't mafia, and that he was a serial killer!

Oh, and Visor used the rolleyes smiley at one point. Rolleyes = scum.

How would I know that? You've made a leap, I don't understand how you did it.

[Earthling]

Well, you are just a mafia, but Zack is right about all the remaining roles, the game setup has to be like that at this point, and with him as backup doctor, me vanilla townie but nothing really prove-able there, and the one town vig left, nothing for you to really claim. And you can't really expect anyone to believe it was a townie move you claimed SK yesterday.

I would put Diamondeye down as the town vig over B_Ray, not just for Diamondeye trying to figure stuff out as a townie and his voting pattern clearly lacking mafia coordination (if, say, he and TLD and B_Ray were the scum why didn't they coordinate better and outright get someone like Zack lynched earlier).

What really has me convinced on Diamondeye, is that it would totally be his style to just kill someone N1 as a town vig, with no knowledge of the game setup yet or waiting to see anything play out. He's down it before and would do it again, and probably did kill either the doctor or roleblocker that first night, but that's what's great about him on the rare occasions he is actually town.

[Visor]

And you can't really expect anyone to believe it was a townie move you claimed SK yesterday.

Why not? It would stop the lynch on me, a townie, and I'd be obvious lynchbait to leave alive.