Ukraine Thread

[Viking]

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.

[Greyblades]

Man, the koala on the right looks really uncomfortable. And what happened to thier fur?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

That's not entirely true.

Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival. If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions. If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.

Added to this, whilst Ukraine is not exactly a bastion of democracy and due process the rebel areas are led by Junta's holding obvious sham elections using rifles and potatoes. Whilst there will be majority-rebel areas in both provinces there will also be pro-Kiev areas and the prospect of partition is more bloodshed within those provinces as undesirable "traitors" are expelled.

In related news - all government-run services in rebel held areas are being withdrawn: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30072483

It's only logical, for as much as it will hurt the common man Kiev can't subsidise rebel rule.

Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

[Gilrandir]

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.

Putin is making sure no Russian speaking koalas are oppressed in Australia.

If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions.

They will not stop at administrative borders but will move on to "liberate the people of entire Novorossia from the junta". From what I hear the rebel-held territories are being contested between different groups of separatists to get access and control over businesses practised there. Other important sources of income for them are car thefts (with their subseqent transportation to Russia) and scrap metal collecting (again with subsequent delivery to Russia) since a lot of broken military machinery is left to rust in the open. Some of separatists (namely Chechens) are more inventive - they erect checkpoint (even in places which are far away from the frontline) and take tolls from cars for passing through.

[Brenus]

“If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.” Looks like from Erick Falkenhayn who believed “to wear down the defences of the French and bleed their army white”. With the success we know. The question is why the Ukrainian would not bleed as well, as the German did in France?

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

[Rhyfelwyr]

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

[Gilrandir]

Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc.

I like that "probably". Probably weapons, probably tanks, probably ammo, probably fuel. So there is still a fat chance that the Lugandonians have plants working for them that produce all those things, isn't there?

Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.

Once we had an international treaty (culminating in the Budapest memorandum) that guaranteed some things for Ukraine. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
After that (in 1997) in Ukrainian-Russian treaty - of friendship and cooperation, btw - Russia explicitly guaranteed Ukraine's integrity and sovereignty. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
It's not been yet three months since Ukraine signed the Minsk protocol. What stipulations of it (except the prisoners' exchange) were fulfilled by Russia and by "probably" assisted by Russia separatists?
Now Ukrainians don't want to be cheated again by Russian promises.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

[Greyblades]

Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

America and the UK (and Russia) undertook a commitment 20-odd years ago to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up it's nuclear weapons.

So, in fact, the US does have some legal obligations here, as does the UK. Further, a Ukraine is a NATO ally it is accurate to say that "the US does not help its allies".

[Greyblades]

The Ukraine is most certainly not a NATO member and as for legal obligations: citation needed.