Ukraine Thread

[Papewaio]

Sanctions do have an effect.

Problem is this is a world economy so sanctions are a case of cutting off ones own nose.

Mind you this is also a preview of what will happen when more nations go nuclear power. The oil producing nations will then have to value add to their products whilst experiencing an economic crunch.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The ruble appears to be having issues. Interest rate jacked up to 17% and it's still in free fall. It's December 16th, and Putin may still be a fascist, but he's a fascist in charge of a crumbling economy. Low oil prices have Russia burning through their foreign reserves. So, umm, yeah fracking!?!

While it might be fun to watch Putin squirm, I have a feeling this is going to get ugly.

Off-shore wells in the Gulf of Mexico ftw?

Sanctions do have an effect.

Problem is this is a world economy so sanctions are a case of cutting off ones own nose.

Mind you this is also a preview of what will happen when more nations go nuclear power. The oil producing nations will then have to value add to their products whilst experiencing an economic crunch.

It's not entirely true that sanctions have had no effect - the reciprocal tit-for tat has isolated Russia's other sectors from important markets in Europe and the US - this has driven up prices for commodities whilst reducing the profits of domestic producers (because they can only sell domestically) and that has helped to drive inflation - that has resulted in a punitive rate rise and now we are starting to see Capital Flight.

So sanctions have had an effect - they have reduced the ability of Russia to respond to the drop in oil prices.

Edit: And I missed my overall point.

Viz. Russia is one country (albeit a large one) and no where near the size of Europe and the US - so it hurts Russia more than us.

Even so, it looks like Russia has about ten months of reserves before they get into real trouble. That means Putin has about six to nine months to solve his problem, or for the price of oil to rise.

So the question is how much the Ukrainian military can dig in before the winter is over. Around February or March the rebels are likely to try a new offensive. If Russia is by then less keen to finance them then the Ukrainians may be able to hold ground long enough to break the offensive. If Ukraine goes on offensive then they'll lose, but if they don't then the Rebellion may run out of steam. Sooner or later rebel infrastructure will start to break down unless they can get a real economy going, and with only Russia to export to they may have no one to sell to when Russia is broke.

Of course, Putin may run the opposite calculation - if Russia's economy is tanking he will want to divert attention from that or find a way to blame the West - backing the Rebel offensive will trigger more sanctions and give him at least a semi-plausible cover for Russia's economic ills.

All of which means things are getting a lot worse for everyone before they get better.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Off-shore wells in the Gulf of Mexico ftw?

Actually it is more due to Canada and the American midwest (think Dakotas not Iowa) than anything else. Shale oil is only economically profitable when you reach prices close to what they were before the free fall (around $100 a barrel). The real story going on here is whether or not Obama made a deal with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries to purposely keep supply of oil high in order to bankrupt Russia. While many OPEC countries are in the same situation as Russia (their budgets depend on $100 a barrel) they also have large amounts of money stored and in return for burning some of their reserves they are attempting to secure their dominance in the market by making sure that shale oil production is halted or rolled back in the US and Canada.

I guess the winner depends on who can stretch their reserves out the longest, Russia or Saudi Arabia?

Also, one last thing PVC, just because Russia has 10 months of reserves, does not mean he has 10 months of time to regroup. The Ruble is continuing to crash and Russian citizens will be almost completely swept away in inflation by the end of January if this same downward trend continues. The currency crash should not be downplayed. If the news I read is accurate, this is the biggest crash since 1998 which ended up in Russia defaulting. Apparently, the west bailed them out back then but now who does Putin have on his side?

[Gilrandir]

I hope the Russian people forcefully remove Putin out of the Kremlin on Christmas Day. This is what happens when you go all in on basing your entire economy and power off of commodities.

As far as I can judge, Russian people blame not Putin, but the West. Russian propaganda makes sure that, whatever Putin does, the USA is ultimately the villain guilty of all Russia's setbacks.

Sooner or later rebel infrastructure will start to break down unless they can get a real economy going, and with only Russia to export to they may have no one to sell to when Russia is broke.

Rebels don't need any infrastructure since all they need for war they get from Russia. Infrastructure is neccessary for the people of the rebel-held areas to somehow keep afloat. The rebels can do without it as long as:
1. Russia goes on supplying them just enough to keep the civilians on the verge of hunger.
2. Russia goes on supplying them military-wise to keep hold of the civilians who might protest.
3. Local and Russian propaganda goes on feeding civilians with terrifying news of Ukrainian punitive soldiers massacring locals en masse.

I guess the winner depends on who can stretch their reserves out the longest, Russia or Saudi Arabia?

The answer is evident since the sheikhs invest (or save) the money they get from selling oil and it eventually finds the way to the people's pockets, while in Russia the money gets embezzled and/or goes to the pockets of oligarchs who are not likely to share with the rest of the population.
Edit: want a bet?
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...rp_ids=1974697

[Gilrandir]

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/240450.html

[Gilrandir]

I somehow sense a change in the behavior of the Lugandon leaders. For approximately 2 weeks they have been displaying an unusual eagerness (so different from their previous reluctance for any compromises) for a new meeting in Minsk. Kyiv, on the contrary, seems to be playing for time being in no hurry to resume negotiations claiming (through Kuchma and thus off the record) that there is no use in a new meeting since the previous agreement's stipulations were not observed by the separatists. Another news (well, rather a rumor) that "the president of DPR" Zakharchenko (who has been missed since December 1) is held house-arrested by Russian secret service. Could there be any connection between the two events? Or can the ruble collapse have pushed the separatists (or rather their Moscow supervisors) to something other than shelling and mud-slinging Ukrainian military?

[CrossLOPER]

As far as I can judge, Russian people blame not Putin, but the West. Russian propaganda makes sure that, whatever Putin does, the USA is ultimately the villain guilty of all Russia's setbacks.

The western propaganda makes you believe this.

[Gilrandir]

The western propaganda makes you believe this.

If we don't take into account the Ukrainian sources I'm more exposed to Russian ones, the western propaganda reaches me only as a faint echo. Like this one:http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188881

[Gilrandir]

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...om-support-act
I wonder what implications it may have.