Right now I'm still happy with a lynch from my previous top 3 but tbh I'm not that confident. Nightbringer seems less likely and I'm even back to tinfoiling on Al Sips. Apart from picking upon the GH D1 switching votes thing, my reads seem to be waaay off this game. Playing Town is hard!! Here's where I'm at:
WRT Nightbringer
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I can agree SV's flip makes Nightbringer look considerably better unless it was a major, early bus. The main selling point for me is the fact he voted/pushed SV early the day before the lynch, rather than just jumping in the next day after SV's noose was already set. Anything's possible, but I can't really see Scum bussing like that at this point in the game so I'd be happier lynching Auto/Jarema first here.
On the other hand, the posts following Khaan's flip and the soft-clearing of both GH and El Barto still bother me.
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.
@Nightbringer, can you explain why Khaan's flip took El Barto off the suspect list for you?
Originally Posted by Nightbringer
It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.
WRT Auto
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Same things against Auto as before but these also caught my eye:
Originally Posted by autolycus
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After reviewing the spreadsheet, my working theory is that there's one more mafia (who probably poisoned last night), we have a vig activated by the duchess' death, and a solo scum poisoner. Raith's kill doesn't make sense for the mafia, and Winston's claimed poisoning suggests that the poisoner is not on our side (plus khaan was traced to edse the night edse got poisoned). It's possible the vig is actually an SK, and it's also possible the poisoner is solo and khaan was doing something else that night vis a vis edse (tracking would be one possible power)
Poisoned:
N1: edse (claimed in thread)
N2:landlubber (Died N3 of poison)
N3:Winston Hughes (claimed in thread)
N4:Cass (claimed in thread)
N5: ???
Poisoner candidates from least likely to most: Cass: claimed poisoning, missed two days Nightbringer: Missed two days Al: Clearly not on the mafia's team. Only poisoner if solo Jarrema Vote on edse very strange if he's poisoned him. autolycus: Me. I know I'm innocent but Voting record not great johnhughthom landlubber got poisoned after pushing his lynch. Only poisoner if poisoner solo.
Zain: Tracked as inactive first two days, but voting record is dubious. Only poisoner if poisoner part of mafia team.
Vote:Zain I think the poison is one of the scum team's powers, especially given the title of the game.
I also think that the poisoning would be a mafia power given that GH flipped 3rd party undercover with the mafia team but I don't know how you translate that to Zain being number one suspect - iirc Winston tracked him N2 and N3 with no result - yet landlubber and Winston were actively poisoned. Also, Winston said he tracked Zain at night, and it was the last few phases, not the first.
Originally Posted by autolycus
Assuming the remaining direct killer is town and the poison is part of the mafia team, lynching and killing Zain and me wins the game. Obviously, I'd prefer it to go Zain then me because that might end the game before my death, but either order should be ok. If that doesn't work out and Cass doesn't die of poison, I'd lynch her tomorrow. I might not be back on before day's end, but Merry Christmas to all in advance.
1. I don't understand. How/why does taking you and Zain out win the game, if you're Town?
2. Re the bold. Why lynch me?
WRT Jarema
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I still don't like his votes/responses and he's now scummiest to me. Unlike NB, he first avoided and then quickly switched to the lynch of SV. I feel like the interaction/weird mutual votes between them yesterday were possibly scum-scum distancing. SV was pretty obviously going to be the lynch after GK the day before so bussing wasn't out of the question and during previous GK-SV phase Jarema i) started with his strange vote on Zain and ii) then switched to GK, otherwise staying quiet, even when questioned about the vote on Zain.
I'm still of the mindset that Zain gets a pass from Winston's tracking, so all of the above stands out given that and SV's flip. Add that to the vote on Edse and the lack of reasons for previous votes and I'm going to
Vote: Jarema , pending responses from Night and Auto.
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