Brexit Thread

[InsaneApache]

Hate Crimes Soar Since Brexit Vote - Police

"Leave the EU
No more Polish Vermin"

Reported mate reported. Not the same thing at all.

Still that 'appeal to authority' is endemic on the left.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Hate Crimes Soar Since Brexit Vote - Police

"Leave the EU
No more Polish Vermin"

It's distressing - to be sure. Obviously the majority of the diot racists voted Leave (clever racists would vote to stay) and now they feel empowered. It will take a few weeks to sink in but then they'll slink back to their holes once they realise they're still loathed.

Of more import: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36678222

"Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner's insistence that the UK must first leave.It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU."

Rather begs the question of why we need the complex exit negotiations, really, if they're just going to screw us anyway.

I rather think that this circumstance is unlikely - if the EU does choose to punish the British people en masse with this then it's just another argument for leaving as quickly as possible.

[Pannonian]

Reported mate reported. Not the same thing at all.

Still that 'appeal to authority' is endemic on the left.

Britain has had enough of experts, says Gove

Post Brexit, experts need to reassert their value to society

HOWEVER you feel about the result of the UK’s EU referendum, the campaign itself cannot have left anything other than a foul taste in the mouth. The willingness to bend, ignore or invent facts was depressing and shameful.

Both sides were up to it, but Leave told the biggest whoppers. And to the victors, the spoils. It is from their ranks that the next government will probably emerge, so their abuse of facts needs to be held to account.

Let us start with Michael Gove. Pressed in a Sky News interview about expert warnings on the economy, he glibly replied: “I think the people in this country have had enough of experts.”

Given that Gove is likely to land a big job in the next government, this claim is troubling. He was not saying “expert opinion is worthless”. But he was giving voters permission to dismiss it and trust their own instincts, in cynical pursuit of his own goals. If he is prepared to use this tawdry tactic in the most important UK vote in living memory, there are serious questions about how he will conduct himself in high office.

....

We can do better. Sadly, experts must take some of the blame for failing to get their message across. They relied too heavily on spelling out the evidence and scoring factual points – tactics that played straight into the hands of Leave.

For a debate as visceral as this, facts aren’t enough. Reams of research has shown that firmly held beliefs – especially those to do with cultural identity – are resilient to conflicting evidence. Trying to change someone’s mind by bombarding them with facts usually just makes them dig in. Emotion trumps reason.

Academics in general don’t get this. They expect facts and evidence to carry the day, and are left shaking their heads in disbelief when they don’t. The Remain campaign shared this assumption, and made little or no attempt to stir any emotion other than fear.

It was never going to work. Rightly or wrongly, many people felt that their national identity was under threat. That allowed Leave to push emotional buttons with slogans such as “take back control”. Irrational, yes. Vague, yes. But powerful.

[Greyblades]

Experts need to stop allowing thier predictions be inflated by newspapers to bring people into hysterical panic that dont prove nearly as bad as stated.

They also need to stop expecting the people they constantly belittle and decry as uneducated idiots to consider avoiding a temporary economic downturn worth continuing in a democratic defecit.

[Fragony]

An economic expert is someone who can explain why his predictions were wrong. It's all guess-work they should shutup

[Pannonian]

An economic expert is someone who can explain why his predictions were wrong. It's all guess-work they should shutup

One of the predictions can safely said to be guaranteed though. The bigger party in a negotiation holds the whip hand over the smaller party. Especially if the smaller party starts with a bad hand and has a limited amount of time to negotiate. Once article 50 is invoked, beginning the negotiations of the UK's exit, that is the UK's position relative to the EU. The UK will have a limited amount of time (2 years) in which to negotiate new trade deals with the EU, or else be left with the default WTO conditions that no exporter in the UK wants. As an example of the disparities, something like 5% of Germany's exports are to the UK, which can be swallowed up in the overall EU economy, or else find another market elsewhere, which the size of the EU makes it easy to do. In contrast, 50% of the UK's exports are to the EU. If we can't compete, then we'll need to find another market for these goods, and the biggest markets will dwarf the UK, thus worsening any trade deals that we can expect.

No economic predictions, merely a comparison of size and power, and why unions hold more power than fragmented individuals. Is this disputable? Yet this is the position that we've got ourselves into.

[Papewaio]

....and then political reality creeps in....

Which is why the referendum is just another poll.

Yes most modern populist politicians chase polls. However they do not always do what the citizen voter wants.
A) Is there a delta in referendum particaption and normal votes? 72% vs 65%. So 10% aren't voting for an MP to do something.
B) corporate interests - campaigns cost money...
C) party interests - half a dozen of A six of B
D) national interests - aka leadership despite the above

[Fragony]

One of the predictions can safely said to be guaranteed though. The bigger party in a negotiation holds the whip hand over the smaller party. Especially if the smaller party starts with a bad hand and has a limited amount of time to negotiate. Once article 50 is invoked, beginning the negotiations of the UK's exit, that is the UK's position relative to the EU. The UK will have a limited amount of time (2 years) in which to negotiate new trade deals with the EU, or else be left with the default WTO conditions that no exporter in the UK wants. As an example of the disparities, something like 5% of Germany's exports are to the UK, which can be swallowed up in the overall EU economy, or else find another market elsewhere, which the size of the EU makes it easy to do. In contrast, 50% of the UK's exports are to the EU. If we can't compete, then we'll need to find another market for these goods, and the biggest markets will dwarf the UK, thus worsening any trade deals that we can expect.

No economic predictions, merely a comparison of size and power, and why unions hold more power than fragmented individuals. Is this disputable? Yet this is the position that we've got ourselves into.

Sounds easy to solve to me, make a deal with the Netherlands and use it as a proxy.A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it, but the possibility of a nexit is a sword of Damocles hanging over all major industry-zones in Europe. They'll be nice. Haven't you noticed a complete lack of actual powerplay, only fearmoning rhetoric. You guys are safe, might hurt a bit but not for long, year or so

[HopAlongBunny]

One of the predictions can safely said to be guaranteed though. The bigger party in a negotiation holds the whip hand over the smaller party..

That is why I doubt Article 50 gets invoked any time soon...if at all.
The UK just has too much to lose.

[Pannonian]

Sounds easy to solve to me, make a deal with the Netherlands and use it as a proxy.A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it, but the possibility of a nexit is a sword of Damocles hanging over all major industry-zones in Europe. They'll be nice. Haven't you noticed a complete lack of actual powerplay, only fearmoning rhetoric. You guys are safe, might hurt a bit but not for long, year or so

A country within the EU cannot unilaterally make a deal with a country outside the EU. The EU makes deals as a bloc. When Switzerland tried to pick and choose, the EU told it to accept the basic deal as the foundation, or else skedaddle. Four freedoms or no access to the single market. The referendum was, in the Leave voters' minds, fundamentally about one of those freedoms.

As for lack of powerplay, that's because the EU position is that there will be no negotiations until article 50 is invoked. So there will be no deals until we invoke the ticking clock. And even without invoking the formal exit article, our economy is already rolling off a cliff. It'll be a straight drop when we do invoke it. Everyone who will be negotiating knows this.

"A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it"
Which is why exit-mongering from a distance as you did is irresponsible and disgusting. Like I said before the referendum, you get to see the results, but you don't have to pay the price.

[Pannonian]

Which is why the referendum is just another poll.

Yes most modern populist politicians chase polls. However they do not always do what the citizen voter wants.
A) Is there a delta in referendum particaption and normal votes? 72% vs 65%. So 10% aren't voting for an MP to do something.
B) corporate interests - campaigns cost money...
C) party interests - half a dozen of A six of B
D) national interests - aka leadership despite the above

Worst of all, one of the politicians was actively encouraging the voters to disregard the advice of experts, and by extension to disregard evidence and rational argument. "I think this country has had enough of experts". I think this is fundamentally the most irresponsible and damaging line I've heard a politician utter in my lifetime.

[Fragony]

"A nexit is unrealistic no matter how much I would like to see it"
Which is why exit-mongering from a distance as you did is irresponsible and disgusting. Like I said before the referendum, you get to see the results, but you don't have to pay the price.

A nexit is unrealistic because despite the Freedom-party being by far the biggest party in polls nobody will coorperate with them, it's not impossible because it will have consequences, we can't even handle the demand as it is Rotterdam-harbour would have to be twice as big, it going to take at least 50 years before others can even muse about catching up. It's all politics.

As for the rest I think you are overly pessimistic

[AE Bravo]

It was the responsibility of the government to plan for both results in a referendum they had planned to hold for over a year, that they didnt plan for the outcome they didn't want is thier failing, not the failing of the people who voted that way in the referendum.

Why would leavers accept a plan by a remain government? I don't follow extremely Eurocentric issues like this but sounds like "give me some matches so I can light a fire under your ass for takeoff."

[Greyblades]

Because it's not supposed to be a remain government, they got in on the promise of the referendum.

That they now want to go back on it probably tells you how electable they will be in 2020.

[HopAlongBunny]

Make of it what you will:

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Four freedoms or no access to the single market. The referendum was, in the Leave voters' minds, fundamentally about one of those freedoms.

No it bloody well wasn't - as IA already pointed out, immigration was not the most prevalent reason for voting Leave so stop banging that bloody drum.

As to not invoking Article 50 - the EU has refused to negotiate at all unless we invoke it and now the big powers, after a week, are saying we can't negotiate a trade deal without first negotiating an exit deal - which begs the question of what the point of an exit deal is.

At the same time our MEPs have been sent home, our Prime Minister is excluded from EU talks and our commissioner has resigned.

It's very clear at this point that we're going to be forced to invoke Article 50, regardless of an election or a change in public opinion.

[Pannonian]

No it bloody well wasn't - as IA already pointed out, immigration was not the most prevalent reason for voting Leave so stop banging that bloody drum.

As to not invoking Article 50 - the EU has refused to negotiate at all unless we invoke it and now the big powers, after a week, are saying we can't negotiate a trade deal without first negotiating an exit deal - which begs the question of what the point of an exit deal is.

At the same time our MEPs have been sent home, our Prime Minister is excluded from EU talks and our commissioner has resigned.

It's very clear at this point that we're going to be forced to invoke Article 50, regardless of an election or a change in public opinion.

And at that point, we'll have 2 years to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, where 50% of our exports go, or default to WTO trade conditions. How long did Canada and the EU take to agree on a trade deal? 7 years wasn't it?

[Fragony]

And at that point, we'll have 2 years to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, where 50% of our exports go, or default to WTO trade conditions. How long did Canada and the EU take to agree on a trade deal? 7 years wasn't it?

These deals will come, the UK is way to important to dismiss, especially as a Nato-partner for anyone involved. Do you think it's a coincidemce that the eurpian commision is suddenly talking to Erdogan's Turkey, that's desperation. Clueless and in panic. Just call their bluff.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

And at that point, we'll have 2 years to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, where 50% of our exports go, or default to WTO trade conditions. How long did Canada and the EU take to agree on a trade deal? 7 years wasn't it?

Ah, no.

You must have missed the article I quoted.

We have two years to negotiate an Exit, then they'll let us negotiate on trade.

Allegedly.

[Pannonian]

These deals will come, the UK is way to important to dismiss, especially as a Nato-partner for anyone involved. Do you think it's a coincidemce that the eurpian commision is suddenly talking to Erdogan's Turkey, that's desperation. Clueless and in panic. Just call their bluff.

The EU are much bigger than we are. The exports of each individual country to us are a miniscule fraction of their economy, compared with the 50% of our exports that go to them. Under WTO tariffs, our goods won't be competitive, so we lose that 50%, meaning our economy goes even further down the drain than it has already. We desperately need a trade deal. Them, not so much. Remember that post I made above about what happens when one negotiating partner is much bigger than the other, when the smaller partner starts with a bad hand, and there is a deadline to meet? The German finance minister has already described this scenario, ahead of any talks on trade, which won't begin until we invoke article 50.

The Leavers have screwed our economy good and proper.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The EU are much bigger than we are. The exports of each individual country to us are a miniscule fraction of their economy, compared with the 50% of our exports that go to them. Under WTO tariffs, our goods won't be competitive, so we lose that 50%, meaning our economy goes even further down the drain than it has already. We desperately need a trade deal. Them, not so much. Remember that post I made above about what happens when one negotiating partner is much bigger than the other, when the smaller partner starts with a bad hand, and there is a deadline to meet? The German finance minister has already described this scenario, ahead of any talks on trade, which won't begin until we invoke article 50.

The Leavers have screwed our economy good and proper.

Still ignoring the important bit, I see?

[InsaneApache]

Make of it what you will:

I met Joe Strummer in Liverpool in '77 and ended up sleeping in his bed. True.

I prefer this one though.....

[Pannonian]

Still ignoring the important bit, I see?

The bit where trade negotiations begin after we trigger the exit article?

The EU won't begin trade negotiations until we formally exit. That means no soft landing and no preparations. But once we formally exit, we have only a limited period of time in which to arrange new deals. We'll have current-ish conditions until that period is done, but at the end of it, if we don't manage to get a deal done, we'll default to WTO tariffs. Which will make our exports, 50% of which goes to the EU, uncompetitive. The onus is on us to get it done, as the EU, which negotiates as a bloc nearly 10 times our size, can absorb this change without blinking. That means lots of concessions on our part, and rather fewer on the EU's part. They may even decide to make an example of us and hold out for an exceptionally bad deal for us. Which we can't really refuse as we're faced with the prospect of losing nearly 50% of our export market once the 2 year period is done.

The prospects once we trigger article 50 are grim. The politicians know this, so they're trying to hold off, do anything except trigger that 2 year deadline. Which puts off the pain in the immediate present, but which means uncertainty, which means companies are redirecting investment and jobs to more stable countries. Which is already happening.

Of course, we can keep our export goods competitive by drastically reducing wages and regulations to second or third world standards, thus reducing costs. Or getting rid of the NHS and other government funded services, thus allowing the government to reduce the tax burden. If we drop living standards and investment in the country, we might be able to make this work.

[Fragony]

They would love to make an example of you, but you are just going to be an example of how fractured europe really is. Do you honestly think that trade-deals aren't already made as we speak. The UK killed only the ideological EU, or at least really damaged it really badly, kudos for that it was needed. Trade will continue the EC is dickless.

[Husar]

Trade will continue the EC is dickless.

That one goes down really well with the whole "Dictate of the unelected EC needs to stop because it changes our lives too much!"

http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/29/news...one-uk-brexit/

British industry giant Vodafone (VOD) says it's considering moving its headquarters out of the U.K. following last week's shock referendum result.
The loss of the company, whose stock helps anchor the benchmark FTSE 100, would be a stinging blow for a country that is struggling to come to terms with the economic consequences of a vote to divorce its European neighbors.
Vodafone said in a statement that Britain's EU membership has "been an important factor" in its growth. It added that bedrock EU principles including freedom of movement of people, capital and goods are all vital for regional companies.

[Fragony]

It's just true, the adieu of a EU-founder leaving is the achiles-heel of ideoligists who never get any furthed than demonising everything they don't like and furiously claim the posr-war peace. There is no pax EU. Timber mia muca, EU is a monster.

[Husar]

It's just true, the adieu of a EU-founder leaving is the achiles-heel of ideoligists who never get any furthed than demonising everything they don't like and furiously claim the posr-war peace. There is no pax EU. Timber mia muca, EU is a monster.

A monster that can't do anything, yes, sounds terrible.

[Fragony]

A monster that can't do anything, yes, sounds terrible.

What they can't do at the moment doesn't change what they want. National democratically elected governments are only a nuissance for the fourth reich

literal quote by Juncker: we decide step by step until there is no turning back

Brits stepped out in time. EU = neo-facism

[Husar]

What they can't do at the moment doesn't change what they want. National democratically elected governments are only a nuissance for the fourth reich

And that's because national democratically elected governments created it and choose all its leaders?

[Fragony]

And that's because national democratically elected governments created it and choose all its leaders?

Feel free to think so