Futuramafia [Concluded]

[atheotes]

ok. stupid me.
My guess is that the scum had a one-off day kill and used it
or its a 3p who was looking for a specific role.

In the Cuth v Stork discussion, Cuth was the scummier of the two. But i thought it was more likely v/v.
I still like the Novice lynch
Vote: Novice

[Askthepizzaguy]

Khaan's iso is worthless. He talks to or about CrimsonFox in almost all of his posts, and mentions 3 other players once in a fairly neutral way.

Quite spartan. But ISO just khaan, is not the approach to take. Gotta flip it and look for the people who mentioned khaan and how.

[atheotes]

I kind of like that, though not sure about Novice. Would need to read back on him.

I don't like him. I've been close to voting for him a few times, but have decided otherwise because I don't have anything solid and there's no momentum anyway.

I feel like he's not trying to scumhunt.

I don't like DP and I don't know why everyone else seems to.

Stork should be burned at the stake.

Riedquat is Xihirling, which means I just don't even know.

Went over the newly caught wolf's posts, found nothing much interesting. Unwilling to lynch Crimson at least for now based on their back-and-forth.

He's doing what I want, but he's doing it so wrong...

I dont like any of the quoted posts. I feel that Murska has been coasting without any follow up on his comments.

[Askthepizzaguy]

atheotes, stick around in the thread for a while. Would like a second opinion on the thing I'm doing.

[Askthepizzaguy]

What this post is:

~All the comments about khaan that were game relevant (or otherwise). Skipped posts from dead people.

Since reading khaan himself does nothing. Click for context on the ones that need it.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

some people read off mindset and tone, others read off results and and confirmed information, inferences from that

i don't think it is anything to be concerned about

i think khaan is town

wanton lust to tank the lynch for personal reasons seems suboptimal

if you are a town and this is your thought, colour me impressed.

I am failing to understand why the bolded means you would vote against your read.

You have the read, you gave the read, but it seems like you don't care about it?

End of Day One

Khaan going to go out on a limb and suggest is town based on the spite vote. I don't think that'd be characteristic of his scum style.

When was the last time you were scum in a game, @khaan?

Saw a couple of things I wanted to address:

The bolded part is really bizarre to me. It almost looks like you're saying: my intuition tells me he's town, but if he was a really good wolf my intuition would be wrong, so I'm going to vote for him? Is that accurate? If so this is a new and exciting level of paranoia.

Also, it would be good if Khaan and Crimson ignore each other for the rest of the phase.

aye, I agree. I don't know why crimson is reacting so strongly like that but its not helping.

Better to focus elsewhere.

Do you have any thoughts on scum/town Atheotes?

Khaan looks townish, his exasperation with offsiters changing the metal seems genuine, and I tend to agree that his spite vote is a town tell.

I have a pet theory that scum is more likely to engineer a push on the "disruptive" players (read: fox) because it appears to be a good town move on the surface. This was you and khaan, and khaan's acting like khaan.

Add that to your last page or two which just seems forced and unnatural.

Follow up from WH:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

This part just seems to be you forcing me into a little box you created in advance. You're jumping from me voting Crimson for his claim to me pushing him for being disruptive simply to fit your theory.

Post-mortem:

Crimson's been suspicious of khaan for a while now (my theory re: people on the "disruptive" player more likely to be mafia turned out to be right, I just went after the wrong person), so I'd put money on that being who killed him. As far as Visor, note that he can't talk after death. I'm guessing he got scanned by the mafia N1 and it got followed up with an N2 nightkill.

p sure khaan's posts clear crimson of being on the same team

notes:

against monty's lynch

suspicious of pizza

doesn't know why people are suspicion me

All Pizza D2 content is between page 36 and 45.

Look at how he talks about Visor. Look at he interacts with Khaan.

I'm not overthinking this, it's straight-up scumtell.

So, to be perfectly clear: At the start of the game, you technically had a vig kill, but not a functional vig kill, so it wouldn't actually kill anyone when you tried to kill them, and that's why you killed nobody on night one.

On day two or night two, Riedquat used an ability on you, which activated your vig kill, and night two you killed khaan.

How exactly does that work, anyway? Did you even know if you would be able to kill khaan if you tried?

I reread, and Stork was not involved with the Crimson minipush, so my Winston town tell stands. The discussion segued into Stork discussing TDs with Cuthilius.

The next tally after Khaan parking on Crimson:

Ok, apparently BSmith joined, or was already voting Crimson. El Barto also approved of the Crimson vote.

Still, I think Crimson was unlynchable, so scum were probably not trying to save Monty. Slight town tell on Monty, Khaan would in principle not park on someone unlynchable if Monty was in danger, but the lynch was quite distant and the wagons were small.

Want to give my thoughts on these but also wanted to hear others'.

Feel free to copy n steal.

[atheotes]

What this post is:

~All the comments about khaan that were game relevant (or otherwise). Skipped posts from dead people.

Since reading khaan himself does nothing. Click for context on the ones that need it.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

End of Day One






Follow up from WH:

Post-mortem:

Want to give my thoughts on these but also wanted to hear others'.

Feel free to copy n steal.

. precisely what i was doing.

this is how things look after reading the Khaan iso/interactions/comments.

Stork looks towny
Pelican is town
Winston looks scummy
Pizza looks scummy
Novice looks scummy
Choxorn seems to have an agenda. Scummy
Monty - no change because of anything in this. Town lean
GH - also no change. Neutral
Cuth - also no change - Neutral

[Askthepizzaguy]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

some people read off mindset and tone, others read off results and and confirmed information, inferences from that

i don't think it is anything to be concerned about

i think khaan is town

Visor is dead and town, pizza. Again forgetting to exclude all the dead people.

Winston reacts to that town lean. Winston is town, just being thorough.

wanton lust to tank the lynch for personal reasons seems suboptimal

if you are a town and this is your thought, colour me impressed.

I am failing to understand why the bolded means you would vote against your read.

You have the read, you gave the read, but it seems like you don't care about it?

Stork critiques khaan, seems to imply in the first quote a scum read (bolded).

End of Day One

Khaan going to go out on a limb and suggest is town based on the spite vote. I don't think that'd be characteristic of his scum style.

When was the last time you were scum in a game, @khaan?

Spite is spite. I've done that as scum too, it's just something that I don't bother faking. I guess khaan really was irritated with Fox, so it wasn't something he needed to fake. Shouldn't have given him the town lean for it.

Saw a couple of things I wanted to address:

The bolded part is really bizarre to me. It almost looks like you're saying: my intuition tells me he's town, but if he was a really good wolf my intuition would be wrong, so I'm going to vote for him? Is that accurate? If so this is a new and exciting level of paranoia.

Pelican and khaan talking about Monty. Khaan, I think accurately, giving Monty a pass for being himself, couldn't be bothered to find an excuse to find Monty scummy. Or anyone else, really. Pelican suggesting Monty's normal self is scummy. I can't disagree more here.

Also, it would be good if Khaan and Crimson ignore each other for the rest of the phase.

Staying neutral.

aye, I agree. I don't know why crimson is reacting so strongly like that but its not helping.

Better to focus elsewhere.

Do you have any thoughts on scum/town Atheotes?

Generalissimo Visor Slasho is still dead, pizza.

Khaan looks townish, his exasperation with offsiters changing the metal seems genuine, and I tend to agree that his spite vote is a town tell.

Novice kinda repeating what I said about khaan, just rephrasing it.

I have a pet theory that scum is more likely to engineer a push on the "disruptive" players (read: fox) because it appears to be a good town move on the surface. This was you and khaan, and khaan's acting like khaan.

Add that to your last page or two which just seems forced and unnatural.

Didn't like this post.
Follow up from WH:

This part just seems to be you forcing me into a little box you created in advance. You're jumping from me voting Crimson for his claim to me pushing him for being disruptive simply to fit your theory.

There's a scum between WH and GH in this game, and it isn't Winston Huges. Gotta iso GH first before anyone else.

Post-mortem:

Crimson's been suspicious of khaan for a while now (my theory re: people on the "disruptive" player more likely to be mafia turned out to be right, I just went after the wrong person), so I'd put money on that being who killed him. As far as Visor, note that he can't talk after death. I'm guessing he got scanned by the mafia N1 and it got followed up with an N2 nightkill.

p sure khaan's posts clear crimson of being on the same team

notes:

against monty's lynch

suspicious of pizza

doesn't know why people are suspicion me

Don't like these commentary posts from Cuth. Just saying what's happening or doesn't reveal any new insights.

All Pizza D2 content is between page 36 and 45.

Look at how he talks about Visor. Look at he interacts with Khaan.

I'm not overthinking this, it's straight-up scumtell.

Monty being town doesn't prevent Monty from being wrong.

So, to be perfectly clear: At the start of the game, you technically had a vig kill, but not a functional vig kill, so it wouldn't actually kill anyone when you tried to kill them, and that's why you killed nobody on night one.

On day two or night two, Riedquat used an ability on you, which activated your vig kill, and night two you killed khaan.

How exactly does that work, anyway? Did you even know if you would be able to kill khaan if you tried?

Choxorn pretty interested in the vig claim, can't imagine that should be anyone's priority after khaan died.

I reread, and Stork was not involved with the Crimson minipush, so my Winston town tell stands. The discussion segued into Stork discussing TDs with Cuthilius.

The next tally after Khaan parking on Crimson:

Ok, apparently BSmith joined, or was already voting Crimson. El Barto also approved of the Crimson vote.

Still, I think Crimson was unlynchable, so scum were probably not trying to save Monty. Slight town tell on Monty, Khaan would in principle not park on someone unlynchable if Monty was in danger, but the lynch was quite distant and the wagons were small.

Agree with novice's reasoning here about Monty.

Things I'm thinking now:
1) Visor is dead, gjge. Was about as interesting and insightful this game as the character he played, too. Really left a firm mark on my memory banks, along with all the radical positions BSmith took, and the high level of content from El Spamo. Seriously, townies need to do a better job existing enough for me to even take notice of them.
2) Stork can be scum here quite easily, need to prioritize his iso and see if I disagree with current consensus.
3) Gotta iso Generalhankerchief. Every time I bump into his posts they're unimpressive as hell.
4) Need another look at Cuthillius, I'm about 50/50 on him.
5) Choxorn is pretty meh.

Not going to try to derail the Stork train, but if people have the time, I'd appreciate some help isoing the above names that aren't dead yet.

[Askthepizzaguy]

. precisely what i was doing.

this is how things look after reading the Khaan iso/interactions/comments.

Stork looks towny
Pelican is town
Winston looks scummy
Pizza looks scummy
Novice looks scummy
Choxorn seems to have an agenda. Scummy
Monty - no change because of anything in this. Town lean
GH - also no change. Neutral
Cuth - also no change - Neutral

Agree on choxorn, can't disagree more about Winston. Iso him all alone and give me your new reaction.

Do me that favor, please.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Crimson looks worse to me than Barto does, though I really don't have any good reads on anyone.

Vote: Crimson

I am just inactive town.

I honestly have no real opinions on anything at this point. You guys all know how bad I am at reading people early on. Nothing said by any of the people I'm familiar with has struck me as particularly alignment indicative one way or the other. The new people I don't know well enough to be able to read. Crimson and DP are really weird but that doesn't mean they're scummy and it seems like DP's wagon is pushed only by people who haven't played with him.

And I don't see why people are voting for Monty, or Riedquat, or Pelican. At all.

What makes you say that? Newyn seems to me like inactive lazy town, kind of like I am.

So, to be perfectly clear: At the start of the game, you technically had a vig kill, but not a functional vig kill, so it wouldn't actually kill anyone when you tried to kill them, and that's why you killed nobody on night one.

On day two or night two, Riedquat used an ability on you, which activated your vig kill, and night two you killed khaan.

How exactly does that work, anyway? Did you even know if you would be able to kill khaan if you tried?

So, sometimes you have a kill available and you an use it like an ordinary vig kill, sometimes you don't, you couldn't kill night one, you could kill night two, something changed but you're not sure what, but it might have been Riedquat?

That seems like a reasonable enough explanation to me.

I hate all of these posts in almost equal measure, but the questions toward the vig were chox full of aids.

Vote: choxorn

Symbolic vote until I can iso Stork.

[Murska]

I would like to note that I'm sort of around (on phone during a QM lecture) in case anyone has anything pressing to ask of me.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@ Murska

Please respond to atheotes' post 1623.

You both don't post very much. If you have time and nothing to do, recommend addressing the concerns there. Also your opinion about atheotes.

Any of my several previous posts, your reaction to those as well.

Can give us genuine opinions so you can be town read even if you're unable to iso.

[Askthepizzaguy]

There's simply no way to sugarcoat how bad Stork's iso is.

Monty not wolf with Stork based off of 604/605, at least.

[Askthepizzaguy]

lul?

you know ~no information about the setup other than your own role and that one vt and one non-vt has died and you are making a statement about the balance?

Stork/dp not w/w, not that I thought dp was.

[Murska]

I dont like any of the quoted posts. I feel that Murska has been coasting without any follow up on his comments.

I don't know how to address this concern. It's true, I haven't followed up very well on my reads. Mostly just voted accordingly. This is due to lack of time. But, well, the reads are there.

I saw an atheotes post in the group of khaan-related posts that looked very towny.

Pizza started strong but has been giving off bad vibes lately. I'll remain wary but unwilling to lynch yet.

[Askthepizzaguy]

i don't particularly understand how the latter part of this follows from the first part

seems just as possible it is v/v than v/w

Can't dismiss choxorn/Stork here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Stork's iso in a nutshell goes like this:

Talks to townies before they die (10)
Talks to two of the strongest townies in my list of unclears (13)
Suspects or votes a dead townie or strong town lean (12)
All of that behavior makes up maybe a quarter of his posts.

All of that behavior is the same sort of behavior, unreadable and good for wolves.

The rest are all about suspecting Cuth, or talking to Cuth.
There are maybe 3 posts where he talks to Novice or atheotes.

Limiting his suspicions largely to one guy is anti-spew, so he won't leave obvious towns in the wake of his own corpse.

Almost all his behavior before he got really persistent on Cuth was discussing with now-dead townies or pushing dead townies to their death. Then it just gets really amped up on Cuth-related spam. It just looks like Stork has been power wolfing all game, unless Cuth is a wolf. There's nothing there which I can point to that says town. His post count is inflated by Cuth-posts.

[Dp101]

Little lost, how is Stork talking to townies bad? Isn't it important to communicate to discuss cases and such, so I don't see what is wrong with talking to your fellow town.

[Cuthillius]

this post is incomprehensibly moronic for obvious reasons

if you are a wolf and giving a true read on someone, what makes you think i wouldn't agree with you? i have watched you bus in (imo) terrible spots before.

if you can point out a single instance since i started thinking you were scum where i implied you are town, then congrats, but thats not how it works and you SHADING (see, i can use meaningless buzzwords too) me for it is obviously lolterrible.

i don't imagine for a second you would consider it out of character for me to make a joking read off one of my scumreads because you have played with me enough to know that i do that, particularly as town (probably)

overall 1/10, you tried your best

i'm shocked you think it's moronic

[Cuthillius]

Stork's iso in a nutshell goes like this:

Talks to townies before they die (10)
Talks to two of the strongest townies in my list of unclears (13)
Suspects or votes a dead townie or strong town lean (12)
All of that behavior makes up maybe a quarter of his posts.

All of that behavior is the same sort of behavior, unreadable and good for wolves.

The rest are all about suspecting Cuth, or talking to Cuth.
There are maybe 3 posts where he talks to Novice or atheotes.

Limiting his suspicions largely to one guy is anti-spew, so he won't leave obvious towns in the wake of his own corpse.

Almost all his behavior before he got really persistent on Cuth was discussing with now-dead townies or pushing dead townies to their death. Then it just gets really amped up on Cuth-related spam. It just looks like Stork has been power wolfing all game, unless Cuth is a wolf. There's nothing there which I can point to that says town. His post count is inflated by Cuth-posts.

[Riedquat]

I'm back, baby.

Me full claiming adds little to town's knowledge and gives the scums too much data, or I would have full claimed before I left. Right now, it's a bad idea but I also wasn't going to be around for the first half of the phase and the latter half is typically too late to do anything about a big no reason wagon.

It's enough that I have a role that they have to shoot. If they don't believe me and leave me alive, so much the better. I won't even make it to mid-game, guys. Just leave me be, and hold me to this later. If you can't trust me that far, for whatever reason, force a full claim now, I guess. It's just a bad idea.

ISOs by myself next, or I'll talk to whoever's here.

Claim, leave the big sensible data out if you want. Vote: ATPG as a lame pressure vote for the time being.

[atheotes]

Agree on choxorn, can't disagree more about Winston. Iso him all alone and give me your new reaction.

Do me that favor, please.

I have read Winston. I dont really see anything to clear him as town. I see a lot of hedging. No change in my read.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Little lost, how is Stork talking to townies bad? Isn't it important to communicate to discuss cases and such, so I don't see what is wrong with talking to your fellow town.

This is a tendency I noticed in a game on this site a long time ago, and it has served me well in many games since. What I noticed was the following pattern from the scum:

1) Accuse townie
2) Townie would be lynched or murdered
3) Accuse other townie
4) That townie would be lynched or murdered
5) Accuse another townie
6) That townie would be lynched or murdered
7) Accuse another townie
8) That townie would be lynched or murdered
9) Never decide any accused are town
10) The number of people who have been accused at the same time from the same person are always a couple or less.

This is very linear and extremely pro-wolf, and, you don't run into too many people at once who can OMGUS "oh my god, you suck" vote you right back for the sole reason of they are voting for you. That manages the diplo situation while culling town numbers.

Compare that to this:

1) Accuse unknown
2) Unknown is still alive
3) Decide unknown might be town, stop accusing said unknown
4) Accuse townie, unknown, unknown, townie
5) A townie is lynched
6) Accuse unknown and unknown, accuse yet another unknown
7) None are lynched
8) Continue accusing said unknowns
9) A townie is murdered

etc

The latter pattern fits more with the profile of a townie. It is not linear and does not control the diplo situation. The former pattern fits with scums. This becomes especially apparent when someone is power wolfing.

That's because the objective of the power wolf is to push as many townies to death as possible, but they still need to have people on their side while they're doing it. It is more effective to have no opinion on most of the game than to alienate potential voting allies. However, once you've crushed several townies to death, you still need to continue crushing townies. Thus, moving on to another acceptable target and pushing them. Cycle repeats.

The accusations fit the pattern of who is murdered and who is lynched.

Townies, on the other hand, have no idea who the mafia are going to shoot, so the people they speak to will not fit the pattern as much and will contain a larger percentage of unknowns. They also don't have a good idea where the scums are, and thus, don't know who is the easiest townie to lynch, and therefore, their voting and accusing pattern will be far less linear.

I named this concept "Mafia ESP". Predicting who will die, with your votes, accusations, and who you decide to talk to.

The reason why it is a tell is because the longer this pattern keeps up, the more unlikely it is for a know-nothing townie to have stumbled upon the pattern by random chance, and the more likely it is for the explanation to be based on being part of the wolf team, and controlling the diplomacy situation in the thread, and knowing which people are safe to vote for, which people are not wolves, and so forth.

This pattern doesn't typically emerge from villagers by random chance very often, so when I see it, it's scum almost all of the time. Wolves are also typically never so blatant on this particular website, so I hardly ever use this tell. But the past couple times I used it on this site, it was correct.

[Dp101]

Thanks for explaining, I guess we'll see if you are right or if you are mafia.

[Stork]

extremely long post

maybe i am just better than you at clearing good townies like visor since he outted himself as a villager on day 2

[Stork]

also

pizza

isn't your theory already shit in itself if you are assuming the n1 kill was barto because i did the literal opposite of what you are saying

if you are gonna talk spec for a post that doesn't fit on my screen, shouldn't it actually apply to the situation you are trying to use it for?

[Askthepizzaguy]

maybe i am just better than you at clearing good townies like visor since he outted himself as a villager on day 2

I laffed.

[Montmorency]

Lots of headgame. Ghosting, shading, buddying, distancing, whatever. You are very good at putting out a lot of quasi-fluff and tangential material to make me struggle to pinpoint just what is so wrong about your case and your posts.

But I remember. Are you going to engineer another CFD, so that you and Cuth and Winston can't be called to account for the results of a Stork mislynch? That's another scum tactic for you to lecture on, bringing someone to the edge of lynch and then dropping them entirely while bringing the whole town's attention to another target. Coincidentally, it's a good way to break out of the linear trend you describe.

[Askthepizzaguy]

also

pizza

isn't your theory already shit in itself if you are assuming the n1 kill was barto because i did the literal opposite of what you are saying

if you are gonna talk spec for a post that doesn't fit on my screen, shouldn't it actually apply to the situation you are trying to use it for?

Crimson flipped townie, and he claimed not to have shot Barto. That leaves SK and mafia.

Reidquat is my current SK suspect. What's your theory as to what happened?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lots of headgame. Ghosting, shading, buddying, distancing, whatever. You are very good at putting out a lot of quasi-fluff and tangential material to make me struggle to pinpoint just what is so wrong about your case and your posts.

But I remember. Are you going to engineer another CFD, so that you and Cuth and Winston can't be called to account for the results of a Stork mislynch? That's another scum tactic for you to lecture on, bringing someone to the edge of lynch and then dropping them entirely while bringing the whole town's attention to another target. Coincidentally, it's a good way to break out of the linear trend you describe.

You might start by looking up the definition of confirmation bias before you continue. If you're struggling to explain your predetermined conclusion, then see previous sentence.

[Montmorency]

and he claimed not to have shot Barto.

WARNING

ULTRA BLATANT LIE

WARNING