Futuramafia [Concluded]

[atheotes]

Pizza, you have not answered my qn about why you think GH is town.
I looked at the votes, realised Al Sips has done nothing all game but made sure he voted every phase. He ensured that Cuth got lynched over Pizza and did not even bother to give a reason for the vote.
It is unbelievable that nobody has paid any attention to that. I am fairly convinced he is scum.
Vote: Al Sipsclar

[GeneralHankerchief]

Okay, I'm going to be doing this in segments mostly because I'm not sure when I'm going to get back to working. Also, they represent different strands of thought.

The first strand is that I think we all need to be operating based off the following two assumptions:

Assumption 1) Pizza and Murska are not m/m together. Given the gamestate (basically Lylo and town having not gotten a single lynch right) and how hard these two have been going after each other it makes absolutely no sense to set up a mutual bus/Thunderdome. It's far more likely that we're dealing with an m/t pairing, possibly t/t, but never m/m.

Assumption 2) One of the two of them is going to be today's lynch. The battle lines are basically drawn at this point and there's not going to be enough momentum to take a third option, even with 8-9 hours remaining.

Assuming that the above two assumptions are correct, take that into account for my thoughts to follow.

[Murska]

Pizza, you have not answered my qn about why you think GH is town.
I looked at the votes, realised Al Sips has done nothing all game but made sure he voted every phase. He ensured that Cuth got lynched over Pizza and did not even bother to give a reason for the vote.
It is unbelievable that nobody has paid any attention to that. I am fairly convinced he is scum.
Vote: Al Sipsclar

You. I like you.

Vote: Al Sipsclar

I definitely will self-preserve if necessary, however.

[atheotes]

I still think GH is scum and Pizza has been pretty scummy as well.
The only point in favour of Pizza is the fact that he actually revealed Winston's visit to JHT before Winston. I think it is unlikely for a tracker to be part of scum team. I dont know if Zack would give cover roles to scum and also allow them the use of the cover role abilities.

Pelican and Dp101 are pretty much town for me. I am not going to lynch Monty either.

Murska has been scummy as well. But i cant find any strong associations for him.

Quat could very well be scum. It makes no sense to have a neutral role that can only win with town. also i dont trust his VC about keeping Fry alive. Fry should not reveal.

Unfortunately i did not have much time today and these are my current thoughts on the game. We are in potential Lylo and i understandy why. I will try to be back before EOD. Lets atleast make this lynch decisive.

[Murska]

Assumption 2) One of the two of them is going to be today's lynch. The battle lines are basically drawn at this point and there's not going to be enough momentum to take a third option, even with 8-9 hours remaining.

You. I really dislike you.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Second part.

The supporting players.

Al Sipsclar I don't have a read on. Low volume of posts, jailed him on N4 but I was actively blocked, he claims vanilla townie, whatever.

Riedquat is town. Period. I refuse to entertain the notion that he isn't at this time. If he's scum, then well played, I never saw it coming.

atheotes is kind of a man adrift. He's playing to his own tune, as most recently evidenced by his Al Sipsclar vote. Now, while the mafia have been obviously effective at this game thusfar, it's a possibility that they can afford to have atheotes be the lone man doing his own thing as kind of a last resort in case the tables turn, I think the numbers and my other reads make it far more likely that atheotes is just a townie doing his own thing. Basically, the only scenario in which I see atheotes as maf is if Pizza and Murska are t/t, in which case it's already over anyway.

Pelican is for all intents and purposes MIA. What posts he does make have him going all-in on the "Pizza is scum" universe.

Dp101 has had a very townie tone. This is, if I recall, his second game ever. Which means either he's town... or he's a terrifyingly good liar. If we survive the next round or two he'll need to be examined come endgame but he gets a town lean in the interim.

Montmorency has Pirate Ship Mafia III written all over his behavior in this game. In Pirate Ship III, Monty (vanilla town), preferred to give out direction instead of take it for the most part, generally ending up running a parallel effort to the town's main thrust. Occasionally they intersected with varying results. Sound familiar? It should. It's also notable in that Monty, while obviously well-intentioned, was wrong far more often than not in that game, particularly with his main nemesis in that game Andres. Town Monty has this kind of... block... where once he really, truly locks onto a player, the universe twists around on itself to make sure every scenario has that player as a scumbag. We're definitely seeing that here from him w/r/t Pizza, now the only question is whether Monty's right or not.

More coming.

[GeneralHankerchief]

(As an aside, if I'm proven wrong and an Al Sips wagon does materialize, I'd be happy to join it)

[GeneralHankerchief]

Third part.

The candidates.

Murska is... setting off alarms. Pizza, if you chew through the fat, has a good case on him. Murska's response to one of Pizza's main points is below:

I unvoted Pizza because people I was suspicious of, specifically Cuth, voted for him and I thought to give it time and see what'd spring up from a counterwagon. The wagon on Cuth started way too fast so I moved on GH whom I still think is definitely scum instead.

Which, okay, I can see it, but he immediately follows it up with this:

I would note that the only way Town is doing this poorly is that someone has been actively leading us astray, and that I haven't done that, having hardly been active all game.

And this is the post I don't like. There's plenty of reasons towns can be terrible in these games. Lack of activity. Enough people putting their blinders on w/r/t other townies and refusing to entertain other possibilities. People getting sidetracked. Someone taking up the leadership role, but being flat-out wrong instead of actively leading people astray. As a matter of fact, I'd go the other way and argue active sabotage is one of the least common reasons why a town stinks up a particular game. Murska, I have no idea about your meta or experience and I don't often play this card, but I've been playing Mafia for a while and one of the things I've found is that when faced with a bad town, the mafia simply let them all shoot themselves in the foot (and the head) without directing the tiller too much. I think this is an attempt at creating a false scenario and planting it in people's minds.

So, I know you've mentioned the issue somewhat, but basically I want to get in your head more. I want a full reads list from you, with explanations, as well as possible scum teams. I'd also like your full thought process regarding your actions over the past day or three. We've got an appetizer with the whole "why I moved my vote" thing from last round, but now I want the main course. I'm at the point where pretty much only that will get me to move my vote off you, unless we're faced with competing Al Sipsclar/Pizza wagons.

Speaking of which...

Askthepizzaguy. Good god. Pizza. Could this actually be the moment? I don't think we've ever, ever been on the same wavelength in a game of mafia together - regardless of our factions - and, well, there have been a lot of games.

Anyway, moving on from the sentimentality. It wasn't always like this. I was sure you were mafia after Cuth flipped town last phase. It all fit into play - the last-minute shift, the "as long as it isn't me" mentality you seemed to have. I fully intended to come after you, guns blazing. I even tried to throw you in jail last night.

But the case against Murska is good. The tone is right. There are some things you just can't fake. I don't care how well-regarded and tricky you are, as you and I both know that doesn't work on me. Mafia, when faced with triple game point, don't get desperate and flailing around until they hit paydirt. They just don't. They can try, but they leave subtle tells that they're putting it on for show, and those tells aren't there. So if it's a Pizza/Murska thunderdome today, I'll stand in your corner. You've got a good case and you're playing the part of town well (though the alien thing that Ried mentioned hasn't fallen out of my mind yet). If it's a Pizza/Al Sipsclar thunderdome, I'll stand in your corner for that too.

My vote will remain on Murska. If momentum moves it away from him and onto Al Sipsclar, then I will vote Al Sipsclar. I will not be voting for Pizza this phase.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Final part:

I think our remaining scum are Murska/Al Sipsclar/Pelican. Pelican's trying to take out a power role, Murska is distancing and attempting to do a soft bus of Al Sips currently. Possibly because Murska's the scum roleblocker (or rolecop?), possibly because he sees the momentum shifting away from Pizza.

[Montmorency]

generally ending up running a parallel effort to the town's main thrust.

For better or worse, I was the town thrust in the second half of the game. But there's no private comms here.

Definitely not impressed with the meta paragraph about Murska and Pizza.

Can we vote Al Sipsclar? This is making me uneasy. I have the feeling Pizza can act like this because he has set up a situation where he doesn't care if a town or a scum is lynched on this particular day - he's playing, and has been playing a longer game - and it's annoying me. I would vote Al Sipsclar over Murska, if Pizza is really not happening again.

Please consider just finishing off Pizza. If Pizza is not scum, then we are all very horribly wrong in unique ways anyway.

[Montmorency]

To clarify, if Pizza is town then none of the proposed scum teams are anywhere close to the mark.

It would have to be Pelican + Sip/Murska + ?. At that point, it might as well be DP101 as the Sith Lord Jar Jar here.*

*Just by allusion, not saying you're acting like a Jar Jar here DP.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I'm not voting for Pizza.

But what do you think about my paragraph on the second post of Murska's I quoted?

[Montmorency]

It's kind of a quibble, as the interpretation can be extended into truism. By my interpretation specifically, then yes, you would be right as the scum team will have been a heavy lurker-lean this game. However, just by noting that ideas can be "planted" you admit that even subtle comments or case setups can have repercussions tending toward desired scum positions, even if they have stopped talking at the later point.

[Montmorency]

I mean, if you agree that Pizza is scum, then you agree that he has groomed the arguments around, for example, your position to a considerable degree. The cases around GH, that is.

[Riedquat]

Unvote; vote: Murska

Do not like the Al-sip wagon at all!

[Montmorency]

So you agree with this case on Murska, or are you going with the role thing you abandoned earlier?

[GeneralHankerchief]

I mean, if you agree that Pizza is scum, then you agree that he has groomed the arguments around, for example, your position to a considerable degree. The cases around GH, that is.

This was one of the big reasons why I suspected Pizza last night, but it doesn't overwrite
a) his tone
b) the fact that his case on Murska is still valid

[Montmorency]

What if, like you, Pizza finds this tidbit about Murska a compelling argument in abstract (despite its mixed record across games)? Wouldn't that trivialize tone, and make the potential of the argument itself incidental?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Basically here's my order of precedence in terms of who I'm saving.

GH > Riedquat > Monty > Pizza > Dp > atheotes > Pelican > Al Sips > Murska

[GeneralHankerchief]

What if, like you, Pizza finds this tidbit about Murska a compelling argument in abstract (despite its mixed record across games)? Wouldn't that trivialize tone, and make the potential of the argument itself incidental?

I'd say it's null at this point. Pizza's case on Murska isn't fluid, it's pretty set in stone at this point. I don't see what him picking up on that one post changes.

[Riedquat]

So you agree with this case on Murska, or are you going with the role thing you abandoned earlier?

Of course, and admittedly with more paranoia than reason, but reason has served nothing this game so far.

[Montmorency]

Vote: Al Sipsclar

[Askthepizzaguy]

I would consider Al Sipsclar as an alternative, if atheotes began town-telling.

Though, to be honest, I don't know what the town-tells or scum-tells for atheotes would be. For atheotes, I pretty much only use generic scum tells like pushing townies to death, and that doesn't really apply here. It just could go either way.

I've been focused on Monty and Murska because their scum tells are getting obvious. Monty looked "himself" the entire game, that's not his tell. It's just his vote record and who he's not willing to vote, pure and simple.

Some people you can't read based off of tone or "being themselves" and Monty is one of those people I guess. Which is something I didn't know about Monty, I have played with him many times but not as town versus a Monty-scum. But he's irredeemable this game and he's simply power wolfing.

Murska, the case is there. I'm glad people are seeing it, but without Al Sipsclar or Pelican's support, I will simply be 4 or 5 voted at deadline. So we need to be decisive.

In the event that we cannot get 5 on Murska, I will support Al Sipsclar lynch over myself, but not over a Murska lynch.

I think we just got shafted by townies not having time / not investing.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'd say it's null at this point. Pizza's case on Murska isn't fluid, it's pretty set in stone at this point. I don't see what him picking up on that one post changes.

I missed this part or just didn't understand it, what does this mean?

[Riedquat]

Basically here's my order of precedence in terms of who I'm saving.

GH > Riedquat > Monty > Pizza > Dp > atheotes > Pelican > Al Sips > Murska

GH > Riedquat I've already told you, you have a faulty cpu!

[Zack]

Tally as of post 2815:

Lynch votes
3 votes: Murska (GeneralHankerchief, Askthepizzaguy, Dp101)
3 votes: Al Sipsclar (atheotes, Murska, Montmorency)
2 votes: Askthepizzaguy (Pelican, Riedquat)

not voting - @Al Sipsclar

Voting ends in:

Voting history:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Askthepizzaguy

Askthepizzaguy

Murska

atheotes

Askthepizzaguy

Murska

Murska

Askthepizzaguy

Askthepizzaguy

Al Sipsclar

Al Sipsclar

Al Sipsclar

[Askthepizzaguy]

Unvote; vote: Murska

Do not like the Al-sip wagon at all!

This vote isn't being picked up by the counter.

[Askthepizzaguy]

@Pelican @Al Sipsclar @atheotes

One or two of you are town. We need everyone on the same train. A 3 way split can't win this game.

[Riedquat]

Vote: Murska weird...

[Askthepizzaguy]

The scums voting for Al Sipsclar tells me that Al's alignment, scum or not, will not affect the scum's likelihood of winning this game.

If he's scum, they're bussing the least valuable member of their team.