Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

Winston Hughes, the tl;dr version.

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Page 2: 152 feels significantly townie enough to mention it to you. I even think he might have rustled Zack with his joke suspicion, but I'm hunting townies so let's stick to that. I feel like his joke leans list with Monty as third party gave away the joke. Otherwise it's Zack/GH/Pizza all being found as suspicious before we got rolling, which is less obviously the joke but more like the punchline. Humor is a good thing to consider, and Winston's humor is good here, even if he might have been accidentally right on someone. Nothing locking here yet.

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Page 6: Seems like his joke suspicion on Zack has begun to take a mild turn for the worse. Just noting it. Here he seems to be voicing real suspicion on GH and Zack, or at least a desire to put pressure on those slots. 437 seems to indicate real suspicion there. But here we go, 439. I'll quote the relevant posts below. Then Logic in 457. See bottom analysis for more. This is quite telling.

Page 7: 508 demonstrates a dichotomy between him and Zack. Don't see them being w/w. Again, someone is shading Winston outright and he's almost oblivious to it, just taking Zack on the level and responding to him on the level, despite his mild suspicions on Zack. If this were distancing, this is deliciously subtle acting that you never see. By 509 he seems to let go of the early Zack suspicion. Then in 511 bam! The Logic vote coupled with this is real suspicion is a good indicator. After a quick hop onto El Barto, when Barto votes him back, he's back on Logic. 553 hates the fact that his vote on Logic looks like a sheep of me. Page 6 and 7 are great quick peeks for those of you at 80 posts per page like me, to get a feel for WH in context.

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Page 10: Post 792 mindmeld about choxorn. Whether that's right or not, I don't know, but Winston is constantly thinking of the same things I am, slightly before, or slightly after I do. This is not coincidence. If it was all after, it'd be less convincing, and it would be WH blatantly sheeping me as either alignment and I don't think he'd decide to be that submissive. Since he's taking the lead on things I am concluding at roughly the same time, just after he posted it, I think it's completely real that he's solving the game similarly to me. 797 rings true. 799 is a very townie process.

Page 11: 810 is good. Winston's language here expresses knowledge and confidence where scums tend to express less confidence unless it serves a specific purpose. 812 and for much of the page, Winston questions Zack for solving purposes and asks Monty to flesh out his reasons why he has issue with Zack more. This plus the earlier bits, and then a frustrated decision that Zack must be town, but the niggling doubts still creeping in thereafter indicate someone whose agenda is to find townies while still being honest about what suspicions he does find. He wants Zack to be a townie but something is off in his estimation, and couldn't pinpoint it. By 826 he says this. All of this looks very good no matter what Zack's alignment is. But 835 is the major tell. I absolutely believe that Winston Hughes is hunting and finding Logic from a clean notebook using his own detective's reasoning, and it has absolutely nothing to do with sheeping me. He's got his own reasons and views on why Logic is scum. This is an independent get and it doesn't matter the chronology. If I weren't in this game, Winston still would have caught Logic today. He deserves full credit, this is the same level of a bus as if I were the one doing it, and I think Winston also knows how effin' bad that is. He can bus but there's a time and a place and it wasn't early d1 before the poor guy could even establish himself. I think I got him at a time when he couldn't even post that much in his own defense, before the mid-point of d1. That's NOT a time to bus and Winston was attacking him that early. I absolutely believe 839 is a real tinfoil. 840 is really good snap reasoning. 845 is Winston giving credence to a Zack tinfoil that he doesn't even think he should be able to be having, because it would indicate Zack's scum game is enormously improved from previous heights, which WH respected already. This is a thought and a revelation that townies have, and scums don't really. Especially not acted this well. Whatever Zack's alignment, Winston's looks good just from interacting with Zack and sussing him. He struggles hard with Zack's alignment this game but is trying to solve him town based on townie-looking behavior. He's not trying to mislynch Zack, that motive isn't there. 877 Snap read of Fredwood town crossposting with Zack calling Fredwood scum looks like a real crosspost and further adds to the Winston/Zack dichotomy. They're not aligned together unless both are town, and WH looks very town. Also just that bit, I feel like it demonstrates that Winston is looking to build a town, as opposed to tearing one down.

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.....

For starters, off the top of my head:
I've observed Zack being a somewhat relaxed version of his usual self, making me want to keep poking him until the cracks show.
I've observed pizza doing the kind of thing that tends to put him under suspicion on D1 as town, but with a certain knowingness about it that makes me question just how many layers he's working through.
I've observed Dp101 looking like his awkward townie self.
I've observed GH playing it cool, but giving hints of underlying reservation.

This feels like real solving and vigilance.

I'm wary of being affected by pizza's mystical bit, but reading Logic's ISO suggests an underlying sense of control that wasn't there in previous games.

This is significant because it is assisting with the suspicion on Logic, but from Winston's own work page. He didn't just copy what little I said and go yeah, he seems off. Instead he volunteers new reasoning and basis for the suspicion from his own detective work, which makes me believe he's actually independently solving the game.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.

Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.

I don't think Logic ever posts this to a partner. Also notable in this post is the top line is a response to Kagemusha questioning how he got Slaan town-read so early, which also makes Kagemusha townie in retrospect as I already mentioned. The underlined bit, ironically, demonstrates Logic's perfect information as he's accusing Winston of having perfect information. How often that's gonna be a scum/scum interaction I leave to the imagination of the reader, but in my book, there's bad and there's not bad, and this ain't bad for the Winstonian.

Just experience talking. As much as I want to keep pizza under pressure, I'm leery of actually lynching him because, historically, it's been a very bad move.

The follow up a couple posts later does not read like Winston is mutually distancing from Logic. In fact, it just reads like Winston is taking what he's saying at face value even though Logic is smearing him. I don't think it sinks in until later, which indicates that it's not acting when it does.

Vote: Logic

Reviewing my reactions, he seems the closest thing to an actual scumread.

Like his repeated return to Zack as a mild suspicion, he repeats his claim that Logic is actually suspect and repeats votes on him as well.

Never change.

Vote: Logic

As has been demonstrated.

choxy so conservative.

Where's the juice, choxy?

Before I switcheroo on choxorn, Winston says what was nagging me during one of my catch-ups. I had chox as town, then posts in between changed my mind, and Winston saw it first.

Three scenarios, ordered most-to-least likely by my estimation:

1) pizza is town and correct about Logic

2) pizza is town and wrong about Logic

3) pizza is scum

Above questions re. pizza are due diligence, in recognition that pizza is better at getting townread as scum than as town (esp. on D1).

looks good.

unvote

Don't want Logic hammered tonight.

Logic actually getting enough momentum to be near hammer danger at this point, and that discussion time is vital for town especially with people who have yet to really post much. Even a strong scum candidate is not worth hammering day one early, that's anti-town. So while this should be NAI, I fully fully back this decision.

My level of confidence in pizza's towniness and his read of Logic is a new sensation.

I want to prod at it before it's either confirmed or questioned by the flip.

This rings true. I don't look so townie so early so well and I don't think I make a super solid case on d1 very well either. But I also don't think WH is just saying this to hide in my town. That's basically what it has to be if he's scum, and the rest of his ISO doesn't match that theory. I think we are simply mindmelding. Scums have an agenda, and that agenda is rarely as simple as "say what pizza is thinking before he knows he's thinking it, and sheep him relentlessly". That's not ever really a playbook they choose or could stick to if they tried. They have to be able to move around, not tie their own hands.

@Montmorency

Would you really lynch Zack today?

I believe if I'm correct, this is Winston's mild discomfort with Zack re-appearing. At this point, and in the posts just after, he asks Monty to develop the Zack read more and flesh out his reasons, and he begins to question Zack in a solving Zack's alignment sense.

I feel you.

But I came to a Logic scumread for my own reason: control.

What I've seen of townie Logic, he exercises little conscious control and just posts what he thinks.

This Logic feels like he's thinking about it.

This is WH's independent get for Logic. The chronology doesn't matter, Winston nabbed Logic legitimately.

GH's big post looks townie in itself, but it feels a little scummy to me that he'd make that his main engagement with the thread at this stage.
Where's the chat, GH?

Complex thoughts and good vigilance. Looks townie but feels scummy is a real and complex thought that scums don't often use as a line of attack.

If Zack isn't town, he's nailed the impression.

I'm sold.

Still struggling with the apparent contradiction of having scummy vibes about Zack, while Zack's actual acting is amazing. Even this wording indicates that he's giving Zack his earned acting award, but is having trouble in his gut with fully believing in it. This is more like a decision to stick with the odds and being impressed by Zack than a wholehearted town read. This is the theme of his day one feelings toward Zack. Man it looks townie but I'm having trouble keeping Zack in my town, kind of thoughts. Keeps giving bad feelings but still looks amaze. Those are complex thoughts and shows Winston's struggle.

Zack is a bad vote.

Join me on GH.

Does not feel correct to try to talk Xiahou out of voting for Zack if the goal is to cause mislynches and Zack is town, especially after he would have been putting a lot of acting investment into struggling with Zack's alignment this round. This post demonstrates Winston's motive clearly: He was looking for townies and struggling to put Zack into his town despite the fact that it looks like he belongs there on some levels. But here he is, defending his hard-fought town lean on Zack, because he's trying to build a town, not destroy one.

Vote: Logic

That's about all that needs to be said.

That's a ton of work to establish him as town and he's obvious town and everyone has him town, so don't take him out of your town even if he messes up later. But the diligence has been done. His iso is clean, no scums lurking inside of it.