EXIT NEGOTIATIONS

[Pannonian]

What is wrong with being independant, it is a lost oppertunity. Theresa May deserves much respect for respecting the outcome of something she didn't believe in herself. What you have now (could still change itś not over yet) is an EU that can overrule your laws, congratutations with that.Congratulations with paying much more money to drunks like Juncker, NGO'ś and lobbyists. Such a waste. You could have been out of this Orwellian nightmare, we Dutch could have been following you

Are you suggesting walking away from all talks without compromising for any deals?

[Fragony]

Are you suggesting walking away from all talks without compromising for any deals?

UK is powerful enough to just do that. The rationality behind it is that it would really hurt the EU if the UK leaves, the EU, not Europe. It is already falling apart you see, Merkel being reason #1

[Pannonian]

UK is powerful enough to just do that. The rationality behind it is that it would really hurt the EU if the UK leaves, the EU, not Europe. It is already falling apart you see, Merkel being reason #1

Have you read about the government studies of the ramifications of no deal? I've mentioned them plenty of times. Start with the Dover-London roads being gridlocked on day 1. A few days on from that, you start having shortages of food and other essential supplies. Your talking about the EU being hurt is theoretical. The government studies pinpoint exactly where the UK will suffer and at what point. If you're so confident about the UK doing well in no deal, come over and live here and share the consequences of your bullcrap.

[Furunculus]

I disagree with the cobblers, but I also disagree with the statement. The Leave campaign is mostly based on lies and outright deceit which is pretty much factual. However, there are valid arguments, opinions and reasons for why people want to consider leaving the EU and these are not "lying all the way", There is a difference/nuance.

So for example, I don't believe you are "lying all the way" or intending to. But Nigel or Boris? Hell yes they were.

i disagree. prime evidence by anecdote being clegg in saying that he thought the eu would be much the same in ten years time as it is today.

but a good example of the ease with which remain lied in being able to trot of bland statements about the status quo, when this is not true.
the remorseless logic of the euro and ever closer union demands more integration.
the consequence of:
1. increased use of QMV over national veto
2. reduced vote-weight as the post Lisbon changes came in
3. eurozone caucusing of decision making - increasingly taken under QMV
4. cameron's renegotiation making it clear to all the peripheral nations that they had no future outside of ever-closer-union

building blocking coalitions was not a sustainable option.

that was not a place we could stay (if you reject that future), but so easy for remain to get an easy ride saying: "aw shucks, you drama queen, things ain't so bad. and nothing will change!"

[Fragony]

Have you read about the government studies of the ramifications of no deal? I've mentioned them plenty of times. Start with the Dover-London roads being gridlocked on day 1. A few days on from that, you start having shortages of food and other essential supplies. Your talking about the EU being hurt is theoretical. The government studies pinpoint exactly where the UK will suffer and at what point. If you're so confident about the UK doing well in no deal, come over and live here and share the consequences of your bullcrap.

Of course there consequens but also benefits. No I am not coming there is something depressing about the UK to me, I don't like the place, why would I ever leave the Netherlands to go to the UK. Netherlands is leeched though

[Pannonian]

i disagree. prime evidence by anecdote being clegg in saying that he thought the eu would be much the same in ten years time as it is today.

but a good example of the ease with which remain lied in being able to trot of bland statements about the status quo, when this is not true.
the remorseless logic of the euro and ever closer union demands more integration.
the consequence of:
1. increased use of QMV over national veto
2. reduced vote-weight as the post Lisbon changes came in
3. eurozone caucusing of decision making - increasingly taken under QMV
4. cameron's renegotiation making it clear to all the peripheral nations that they had no future outside of ever-closer-union

building blocking coalitions was not a sustainable option.

that was not a place we could stay (if you reject that future), but so easy for remain to get an easy ride saying: "aw shucks, you drama queen, things ain't so bad. and nothing will change!"

What has that to do with the UK? We were never in the eurozone. Why do Brexiteers keep citing the euro as a reason for Brexit?

[Furunculus]

What has that to do with the UK? We were never in the eurozone. Why do Brexiteers keep citing the euro as a reason for Brexit?

You have been told.

Several times now:

http://archive.openeurope.org.uk/Con...safeguards.pdf

De jure incentives to take common position: This incentive is reinforced by the way the Commission’s ECB/EBA Regulations are currently drafted. For example:

• The ECB Regulation envisions the ECB acting as a coordinator of eurozone national supervisors, with the view for them to take a common position. The ECB has already dropped hints that it intends to actively discourage dissenting opinions amongst eurozone national supervisors.

• Through a eurozone caucus, some member states will indirectly boost their influence as their voting weight amongst eurozone countries is proportionally much greater than in the EU-27 (EU-28 with Croatia). This is particularly true of the larger eurozone member states.

• The safeguards proposed by the European Commission (see Section 5 below) leave the eurozone with the upper hand. Given that the 17 eurozone countries already constitute a simple majority, these countries would only need to seek the support of three ‘outs’ – whereas non-euro countries would need at least four countries.

De facto incentives to take a common euro position: To avoid banks free-riding on taxpayers in creditor countries, the ECB, Germany and others could well insist on putting into place perfectly harmonised eurozone regulations before moving to financial backstops. This could include single-target capital requirements, rules on leverage or bonuses – and could even spill over to market access issues. In turn, this would heavily shape decisions at the EBA, as the eurozone is unlikely to accept an uneven playing field within EU financial services as a whole.De facto incentives to take a common euro position: To avoid banks free-riding on taxpayers in creditor countries, the ECB, Germany and others could well insist on putting into place perfectly harmonised eurozone regulations before moving to financial backstops. This could include single-target capital requirements, rules on leverage or bonuses – and could even spill over to market access issues. In turn, this would heavily shape decisions at the EBA, as the eurozone is unlikely to accept an uneven playing field within EU financial services as a whole.

Taken together, the EBA structure will therefore significantly shift the balance of power in favour of the eurozone, at the expense of the UK and other ‘outs’.

[Pannonian]

You have been told.

Several times now:

http://archive.openeurope.org.uk/Con...safeguards.pdf

The safeguards proposed by the European Commission (see Section 5 below) leave the eurozone with the upper hand. Given that the 17 eurozone countries already constitute a simple majority, these countries would only need to seek the support of three ‘outs’ – whereas non-euro countries would need at least four countries.

So you're miffed because the outs have a numerical inferiority of one in attempting to win any argument in that organisation. So how are things going in winning over the EU27? Each of them has a veto over any agreement the UK may want to make. Ireland have made themselves felt already. Spain have now piped up. And goodness knows who else may want a say before April 2019. Then of course there's the WTO, where there are even more countries who can veto the UK's membership. The US, Russia and your beloved Commonwealth kin have already spoken up. What do you think of the inexorable logic that the UK will be alone with the world looking to screw us over?

BTW, the above isn't a theoretical argument, as yours is. The above countries have already signalled their unwillingness to accommodate us. We've already had to accommodate Ireland, spending the better part of two years trying to satisfy them.

[Furunculus]

the remorseless logic of the euro and ever closer union demands more integration, that is not a place we can go to.
cameron's renegotiation demonstrated this.

the four points above speak to power, and how it is wielded. we can have no expectation of being able to successfully build blocking coalitions in future, as we might have hoped in the early noughties.

[Pannonian]

the remorseless logic of the euro and ever closer union demands more integration, that is not a place we can go to.
cameron's renegotiation demonstrated this.

the four points above speak to power, and how it is wielded. we can have no expectation of being able to successfully build blocking coalitions in future, as we might have hoped in the early noughties.

So how are our prospects for successfully building blocking coalitions in your post-Brexit Brave New World? We've spent the best part of two years trying to satisfy Ireland. Now Spain have piped up with the threat of vetoing, and we've yielded within a couple of days. This ain't your theoretical political landscape that has never been seen in action. This is genuine, demonstrated, post-Brexit political landscape that Remainers said would be so before the referendum.

[Furunculus]

A little tendentious presenting the temporary difficulty of leaving an institution to the long term steady state of being without it, no?

[Fragony]

So how are our prospects for successfully building blocking coalitions in your post-Brexit Brave New World? We've spent the best part of two years trying to satisfy Ireland. Now Spain have piped up with the threat of vetoing, and we've yielded within a couple of days. This ain't your theoretical political landscape that has never been seen in action. This is genuine, demonstrated, post-Brexit political landscape that Remainers said would be so before the referendum.

A second referendum has a reason to exist imho, but I doubt anything different comes from it considering the bullying of the EU, the EU(France) simply needs your and mine money. The French even threaten with war with Germany if they do not get free money, that is the EU

[Pannonian]

A little tendentious presenting the temporary difficulty of leaving an institution to the long term steady state of being without it, no?

Which Leave predictions have come true so far? Which Remain predictions have come true so far?

[Montmorency]

Under what circumstances could one, fundamentally opposed to long-term political integration into Europe, become convinced to reject Leaving?

[Pannonian]

Under what circumstances could one, fundamentally opposed to long-term political integration into Europe, become convinced to reject Leaving?

Given that they reject empirical evidence, I'm not sure what would convince them. It's like Trump supporters, who integrate all Trump outrages into their anti-liberal narrative.

[Pannonian]

A second referendum has a reason to exist imho, but I doubt anything different comes from it considering the bullying of the EU, the EU(France) simply needs your and mine money. The French even threaten with war with Germany if they do not get free money, that is the EU

The EU doesn't need to bully us. Any single country within the EU can bully us, without needing to resort to Brussels. See Spain over Gibraltar. I wonder when Holland will take their turn at kicking us while we're down.

[Fragony]

The EU doesn't need to bully us. Any single country within the EU can bully us, without needing to resort to Brussels. See Spain over Gibraltar. I wonder when Holland will take their turn at kicking us while we're down.

The Netherlands would never do that, nobody would like it if we screw the English. There have been a few wars but that was centuries ago, things have changed

[Pannonian]

The Netherlands would never do that, nobody would like it if we screw the English. There have been a few wars but that was centuries ago, things have changed

Malta has a deep association with the UK. Its flag even contains the George Cross, awarded by the UK to the islanders for their siege in WW2. Their commissioner was one of the first to demand that the UK should be made an example of. I have little doubt the Netherlands will have their turn at kicking us.

[Furunculus]

Under what circumstances could one, fundamentally opposed to long-term political integration into Europe, become convinced to reject Leaving?

Camerons deal + exemption from ever-closer-union available to all. That is all that is needed:

So that euro-outs have a realistic prospect of curbing the political and economic integration that the original-six keep advancing.
Via the endless extension of flanking policies which their social-democratic outlook considers to be a fundamental element of trade policy.
An outlook that is enabled by an activist ECJ in considering this social regulation to fall into the ambit of the single-market, which affects all members.

Without that exemption available to small peripheral nations they have no incentive to join thre UK in a blocking coalition.

[Fragony]

Malta has a deep association with the UK. Its flag even contains the George Cross, awarded by the UK to the islanders for their siege in WW2. Their commissioner was one of the first to demand that the UK should be made an example of. I have little doubt the Netherlands will have their turn at kicking us.

Why would the Netherlands do that you are way to important for us, there is no predatory mindset against the Brittish we like (and need) you here, trade brings in billions in a friendly relationship. It is the eurozone that should worry as the Netherlands is the second biggest food producer of the world and the only one country capable of supplying the raw materials they realy realy need.The Netherlands and the UK should form a pact, and have a beer. Norway and Dnmark should join as well

[rory_20_uk]

The French put the boot in: Quelle surprise. Did the government not see this coming? They've managed to squander two years of preparation time on something rather similar to political prayer - that somehow the EU would suddenly give them everything they wanted and there would be no need to have any preparations since it would all be OK.

So the two options now are a disorderly exit that the Government has done nothing to prepare for and has at best given very mixed messages over and agreeing to not be in the EU... but obey all the rules, pay in all the money, have no say and only get to leave when the EU says we can. Not since King John made the Kingdom a Papal possession in 1214 have we been so owned.

Most projects the government takes on are over budget and behind schedule. So of course, the government approached this more complex issue with that same level of ability. Normally of course when it is something such as the NHS smart card, when it fails the costs are quietly written off and no one really pays attention. Here the costs have been a lot higher.

"Fail to plan is planning to fail". I didn't expect to see that at a National level. Are there any good jobs going in Canada?

[Pannonian]

The French put the boot in: Quelle surprise. Did the government not see this coming? They've managed to squander two years of preparation time on something rather similar to political prayer - that somehow the EU would suddenly give them everything they wanted and there would be no need to have any preparations since it would all be OK.

So the two options now are a disorderly exit that the Government has done nothing to prepare for and has at best given very mixed messages over and agreeing to not be in the EU... but obey all the rules, pay in all the money, have no say and only get to leave when the EU says we can. Not since King John made the Kingdom a Papal possession in 1214 have we been so owned.

Most projects the government takes on are over budget and behind schedule. So of course, the government approached this more complex issue with that same level of ability. Normally of course when it is something such as the NHS smart card, when it fails the costs are quietly written off and no one really pays attention. Here the costs have been a lot higher.

"Fail to plan is planning to fail". I didn't expect to see that at a National level. Are there any good jobs going in Canada?

Didn't the Spanish mention joint governance of Gibraltar as well? How's Brexit? Is it to your taste?

[Furunculus]

Didn't the Spanish mention joint governance of Gibraltar as well? How's Brexit? Is it to your taste?

https://mobile.twitter.com/HenryNewm...15285597609986

[rory_20_uk]

Didn't the Spanish mention joint governance of Gibraltar as well? How's Brexit? Is it to your taste?

Given right from the start I stated that a "hard exit" is the only realistic option to remaining in for exactly these sort of reasons, no - not really. I overlooked the fishing as an issue (and is one of the main reasons why Norway remains outside) but Gibraltar was an obvious one. But I do understand that repeatedly asking the same question until you get an answer you like is sort of what the EU defines itself as.

[Montmorency]

Camerons deal + exemption from ever-closer-union available to all. That is all that is needed:

So that euro-outs have a realistic prospect of curbing the political and economic integration that the original-six keep advancing.
Via the endless extension of flanking policies which their social-democratic outlook considers to be a fundamental element of trade policy.
An outlook that is enabled by an activist ECJ in considering this social regulation to fall into the ambit of the single-market, which affects all members.

Without that exemption available to small peripheral nations they have no incentive to join thre UK in a blocking coalition.

You've said before, but it's evading my question, which includes the clause "[being] fundamentally opposed to long-term political integration into Europe". The question doesn't allow having and eating cake at once, I'm afraid.

[Furunculus]

I don't understand your point...?

My answer seems perfectly compatible with the grammatical structure of your question.

Unless you are implicitly talking about internal changes, I. E. Of conscience.

Perhaps; "in ceasing to be opposed to political union I suddenly found my self able to tolerate continued membership on existing terms, and recognising the trend of integration that was already present."

It is theoretical possible, but so limited a supposition it doesn't really move debate to an interesting new place.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The French put the boot in: Quelle surprise. Did the government not see this coming? They've managed to squander two years of preparation time on something rather similar to political prayer - that somehow the EU would suddenly give them everything they wanted and there would be no need to have any preparations since it would all be OK.

So the two options now are a disorderly exit that the Government has done nothing to prepare for and has at best given very mixed messages over and agreeing to not be in the EU... but obey all the rules, pay in all the money, have no say and only get to leave when the EU says we can. Not since King John made the Kingdom a Papal possession in 1214 have we been so owned.

Most projects the government takes on are over budget and behind schedule. So of course, the government approached this more complex issue with that same level of ability. Normally of course when it is something such as the NHS smart card, when it fails the costs are quietly written off and no one really pays attention. Here the costs have been a lot higher.

"Fail to plan is planning to fail". I didn't expect to see that at a National level. Are there any good jobs going in Canada?

healthcarejobs.ca lists 130 vacancies for RNs....

[Pannonian]

healthcarejobs.ca lists 130 vacancies for RNs....

If rory is looking for vacancies, there are even more in the UK since the referendum.

The number of EU nationals leaving jobs at public bodies such as hospital trusts and universities rose by an estimated 15% between 2016 and 2017, according to freedom of information data assembled by a pro second referendum group.

Best for Britain collected data from 82 hospital trusts and 116 universities, among other public bodies, and argues that the figures show public services are being put under extra pressure as a result of the 2016 referendum.

The hospital trusts, all in England, who responded to the freedom of information requests recorded a 22% increase in the number of EU nationals leaving their jobs according to the figures supplied, a “damning indictment” of the Brexit result according to one leading doctor.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...er-brexit-vote

[Seamus Fermanagh]

If rory is looking for vacancies, there are even more in the UK since the referendum.

I think he was mostly joking, but the context was for jobs NOT in Blighty.

[Montmorency]

I don't understand your point...?

My answer seems perfectly compatible with the grammatical structure of your question.

Unless you are implicitly talking about internal changes, I. E. Of conscience.

Perhaps; "in ceasing to be opposed to political union I suddenly found my self able to tolerate continued membership on existing terms, and recognising the trend of integration that was already present."

It is theoretical possible, but so limited a supposition it doesn't really move debate to an interesting new place.

The question was

Under what circumstances could one, fundamentally opposed to long-term political integration into Europe, become convinced to reject Leaving?

It is today, the time of this post. Exemptions for everybody does not appear to be an option. From the perspective of today's world, you dislike the EU's structure and governance and wish to see Brexit brought to a conclusion.

What could happen that makes you say, 'Nope, cancel Brexit'?