Mass Effect 17er [Game Thread]

[ColonelLubriderm]

Eph and Hally are my clears at the moment.

I think esooa looks good on spew, but there is a specific line where I can see it be faked.

I gave my manasi read earlier, and I'm going to be okay with it for now.

Ara came to more or less the same conclusions as me last night, apparently, so I'm going to call her good for the moment.

Everyone else is broken into one of three groups: voted for dya; voted for cargo; voted off wagon.

I don't really have strong preferences inside those lower groups, and will likely spend the day deciding who we should kill.

fuck it take my energy.

especially if it leads yo to voting me

this isnt sarcastic tilt. im a-ok dying if everyone promises to follow my legacy this time

[Maple]

I'd put visor as better than a coinflip v but not real strong feelings; visor's best connection was w/ amy and the dya stuff was a lot weaker. There were positive but fakable posts, more or less.

I was thinking of claiming masons with visor for the lolz this morning but instead posted a meme

[ColonelLubriderm]

im trading eph for ara on my list

[Logic]

fuck it take my energy.

especially if it leads yo to voting me

this isnt sarcastic tilt. im a-ok dying if everyone promises to follow my legacy this time

I have a slightly less selfish take of "I'm a-ok dying regardless of whether people listen to my (probably garbage) reads."

[Maple]

Actually, it would have been better to pretend not to have a read on manasi and pressure her to hopefully get some play out of her slot, but you know how it be

[Logic]

Off a glance, Dya seems obsessed with talking to Maple and Hally.

Gut says she's trying to pocket one or both.

[Maple]

I have a slightly less selfish take of "I'm a-ok dying regardless of whether people listen to my (probably garbage) reads."

You don't get the luxury of an accepted death.

[ColonelLubriderm]

Actually, it would have been better to pretend not to have a read on manasi and pressure her to hopefully get some play out of her slot, but you know how it be

i have the funniest shit to say to this
@Visor @Manasi

remind me in postgame

visor will laugh and manasi will either laugh or be like "wtf", maybe both

[Maple]

Off a glance, Dya seems obsessed with talking to Maple and Hally.

Gut says she's trying to pocket one or both.

Dya is somewhat legally obligated to talk to and/or about us somewhat at length, based on meta things.

Dya was definitely not bothering trying to pocket me, calling me a wolf lol

I policy lynch them for calling me w

[ColonelLubriderm]

the only person i actively want to kill on csargo d1 is montecorenot

outside of that i could see ara/manti being wolves but i dont have aan active desire to go there before people on rask(dolby/cuth)

[Visor]

looking forward to your takes @Logic
@Arapocalypse

[Maple]

Anyway

those are my feelings for now

hf yall

[Visor]

you're going to have to explain how i am a busser

when sunbae and i (and hally a bit too iirc) were the ones really pushing dya, and then sunbae stopped and i kept doing it instead of backing off once given an out

and then i kill sunbae who is village reading dya (i guess this is a really wifom argument but still)

you need to say

a) why i would play it this way
b) how it is more wolfy than other people making actual wrong votes

[ColonelLubriderm]

if montenot is a wolf then i might lay off cuth. im concerned cuth was villa reading dya. I'm concerned cuth was, what i feel like, lying about my intent of my posts to fit his narrative.

However i dont think the same way cuth does and it might be a miscommunication. He wasnted to go montecorenot and if that ends up being a wolf the world where he was a villa wrong on dya increases alot.

[Visor]

the more interesting question is why sunbae and pzelda died

both widely village read i guess?

Vote: Cuth

[ColonelLubriderm]

the more interesting question is why sunbae and pzelda died

both widely village read i guess?

Vote: Cuth

pzelda is a weird death imo

im going to do something rare and reread a dead villa

[Visor]

pzelda is a weird death imo

im going to do something rare and reread a dead villa

hmm i wonder if they scanned him n1

i couild see that actually

[Visor]

@Montmorency

if you dont step up you are likely dead pal

[ColonelLubriderm]

the think that irked me the most about cuth other than the dya defense was how he characterized me saying to giver her a chance to do her thing was me defending them. it was an attempt at me trying to get people not to badger them so it doesnt turn into an AtE where we have to decide is dya annoyed as a villa or a wolf(which it did)

[ColonelLubriderm]

i guess i could see how it could be interpretted that way. still hate having my thoughts misrepresented.

my plan was the initial one i suggested at the end of day which was poison dya, kill somewhere else , evaluate but then i reread the thread

[Montmorency]

Ayyy, so I was right that dyachei was posting just like in Visor's 2019 game.


Three Tiers of Kill
SPK: Zelda/Visor
Mechanic: Eph/Esooa
Town Consensus: Hally/Ara

Wagonomics (D1)
No more than 1 scum on Dyachei (up to 1 of Visor or Manasi)
1-3 scum on Csargo (1-3 of Ara, Hally, GH, CL, Maple)
Corollary (Rask wagon): 0-2 of Zelda, Cuth, Dolby/Logic

Wagonomics (D2)
1-3 scum on dyachei
0-2 scum off-wagon



I'm gonna say Eph/Esooa cleared until LYLO based on D1 and D2 votes. (Note right after Manasi punched dya into a bandwagon behind Csargo, she voted to start an esooa wagon based on esooa forgetting reasons for voting, pursuing the case even into D2. And D1 eph said "between csargo/dya/raskol I personally prefer dya as a wagon.")



I'm not going to care about Ara/Hally for a couple days by default.

Without getting to Manti/Maple himself, was dya voting Maple alongside Maple spew or antispew?

Cuth needs to answer to me for what has to count as the worst instance of a fabricated case all game.

Manasi is LHF, had good position on D1 dyachei wagon.

If GH scum, Visor arguably lock-cleared, or until LYLO. As town, neither Zelda nor Visor should survive to LYLO, so maybe that's self-resolving. Let Logic deliver Dolbert's report.


Sure, GH looks bad, but I like the cut of his jib better than CL's. Let's recall that mechanically-speaking CL was the one who most proximately saved Dyach D1. GH first broke the 5-5-4 equilibrium, but CL voted Rask from Csargo at EOD-2min, seemingly (creating the impression of) rebalancing wagons, then switched back to Csargo 1 minute later, rebreaking the tie with dyachei. GH's reasoned stance is only on par with Maple's chaotic overvote (7th vote on Csargo). Actually better, since Maple could simply have missed CL's tiebreaker from seconds earlier.

(A D1 observation of GH is that he helped (re)start the Rask wagon alongside Zelda and Cuth at a time when Csargo and dyach were tied 4-4. So they're all probably exclusive as scum, because why would the entire scum team try to wagon a new alternative to their partner when their partner is already tied with a townie? Also, does dyachei join GH on Eph for a spell if paired?)



My eyes on CL, Maple, and Cuth today.

[Montmorency]

^^^ What I had ready before I saw the flip

I actually hoped Visor would be poisoner, but OK

Vote: CL

For example, in #1200 at SOD2 dya, examining Sunbae's legacy, reported his towncore as: Zelda, Ara, CL (and maybe GH). Dya remarked that she would take his word on Zelda and was already feeling good about Ara and GH. It's noteworthy that she laundered a townread of CL through a dead townie, a classic triplet, but didn't express/echo it for her own part. You know, like 'GOAT slain Sunbae is all about that CL-town... and I feel good about the other stuff he said.' Also, both CL and dya spent an inordinate amount of time D2 talking to/about dying Rask.

In 1716, CL drops a questionable case for why neither dya and GH should be candidates

another reason we *Maybe* shouldnt eliminate into gh/dya

between them and rasko there is probably 2 wolves max.

That means outside of them there are 2-3 wolves.

This way, whoever is a villa in gh/dya(and maybe even both) can work with everyone and try to hang some woofers.

At EOD, I appreciated CL's legacy post but it turns out he contradicted it badly with his leans seconds later

Legacy read:

regardless of dya alignment don't kill GH

if dya wolf you can kill cuth though

esooa prob not with dya if dya wolf

GH/montecorenot probably not together.

ephemeral dropped off today but i liked the things he said. make him not drop off as much

poison dobby

hally
pzelda
ara

visor
ephemeral

manti
manasi
GH
cuth

monty
dolby
esooa
dya

[ColonelLubriderm]

how would you depict two people you think could be wolves, but not with each other?

[ColonelLubriderm]

0
hally
pzelda
ara

1-2
visor
ephemeral
cuth
manti
manasi

1-2
GH
monty
dolby

1
esooa
dya

perhaps with a list like this

[Arapocalypse]

looking forward to your takes @Logic
@Arapocalypse

What are your takes/where do you want to go today?

[Montmorency]

@GeneralHankerchief

Glad I found ya for once, buddy.

this is why i think the visor vote is weird. he can be a wolf but i wouldnt kill him before someone not on dya today.

probably someone on csargo

like me

Currently ISOing Dya.
Answers are probably in there.

@Logic

I've already worked out some notes of D2, posting shortly, so please focus on D1.

Off a glance, Dya seems obsessed with talking to Maple and Hally.

Gut says she's trying to pocket one or both.

More likely Hally.

how would you depict two people you think could be wolves, but not with each other?

Hmm. Maybe what threw me is that you didn't maintain your unique team analysis format. Scratch that point for now.

What do you think of Maple and Cuth? If you're town and there are 1-3 scum (won't accept fewer than 1), who are they? Challenge: exclude me.

[Montmorency]

More on dya-CL/bop in 1213, 1216, 1236, 1245, 1286, 1290.


DAY 1 STUFF
TBD

DAY 2 STUFF

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

1301, 1303, 1305 Zelda-dya (from town mech to scumread)
1348 dya-dolby via essoa
1352/1362 GH distancing?
1355 dya response ^ mild shade of Hally. 1358 and 60 continue.
1367 good hally post about dya TMI on her
1368 dya scumlean esooa
1374 cuth asks hally what if dya town
1381 eph asks dya about maple visor and gh
1386 dya says Maple isn't memeing enough but has been on topic (eph and Zelda like the post)
1388 dya arguing against GH scum (Eph calls this WIFOM, asks about Manti's EOD1)
1395 dya says Manasi two posts ontopic is decent look
1396 dya asks Visor why Dolby called town so early

1410 dya: "visor's probably town and i can't really tell you why. I expect him to push me here because of my activity levels and i don't think he's only focusing on that for his reads just feels organic" (Zelda thinks it's a selfcentric meh take, makes Visor look worse? see 1419-20)
1422 Zelda reads, likes dya's shade of Maple
1426 dya cases Maple and votes him
1427 dya weird answer to zelda about scum-visor
1431 eph gamestate comments
1436 Manasi doesn't like dya or esooa push
1460 to above??? dya thought Manasi was esooa
1471 dya asks Hally thoughts on Maple; Hally doesn't know how to read him, so just POE unspec
1472 Hally has GH-dya linked m/t or m/m
1481 Cuth post on GH/dya
1486 Cuth asked Hally about dya-T but here esooa responds with Eph and Maple (also independently) as candidates
1498 Manasi asks Hally if agree that dya scum, Hally responds that dya esooa read bad but Maple read good

1505 Esooa cases dya for Maple
1511 dya likes Cuth's take on thread state
1515 Esooa asks Cuth what posts from dya were towny (Cuth says sthg abt emotions/interactions)
1518 Esooa points out that resolving dya before GH always makes sense (but votes Monty for wagonomics)
1528 Cuth to Hally about dya/GH dynamics
1531/1538 Cuth shades Monty/CL about something or other in posure toward dya
1542 GH denies to Cuth that he strongly TRed dya at SOD
1570 Ara EOD1 reads list: mildly dislikes dya on eph, thoughts on EOD1 were "liked Dolby/Ephemeral/maybe GH, Manasi fence but slightest town, Maple fence, dya/Visor fence but slight mafia!!"
1571 CL thinks anyone who investigates GH/dya t/t world is scummy
1572 CL suggests evaluating people who focus on GH/dya
1573 CL asks Hally why she's wavering on GH and dya as scum
1574 Ara SOD2 reads list: dya on Rask feels weird; Hally/dya not m/m, nor GH/dya; dya too focused on self-defense; Esooa slightly townier in Esooa/dya interaction
1577 CL shades Cuth over Cuth's #1481: "If there is a wolf in dya/gh and montecorenot is a villa there is nothing that will drag me away from the fiery he’ll tunnel that I will have on cuth."
1576-81 Eph-Visor interaction: Visor has no thoughts on dya
1582 CL's team analysis
1584-5 Ara more reads: dislikes dya's 1355 one-liner on Hally, questions GH/dya again (CL thinks it's possible)
1587 Ara asks Zelda about his transition from liking dya's SOD2 entrance to suspecting her (see #1301-5)
1592 Ara doesn't see GH/dya pairing because of GH's blatancy (countered by CL in #1601, see further Ara 1612)

1608 Visor's team is dya/GH/dolby/esooa
1613 Eph thinks GH/dya could be paired but m/t is possible too
1619 Zelda D1 VA finds dya best D2 candidate, D1 dya wagon very likely pure
1627-34 Zelda wants no cred for Visor for D1 dya vote being second on wagon, likes Esooa for putting dya in lead D1, and dya looking worse and worse, GH and Monty D1 votes look bad
1636: Zelda reads: "Ok, GH and Bop kinda look bad from the eod, but reading it as a whole, my hottake on whole mafia team would be: Visor, Monty, Maple, Dya."
1641-2 Visor protests that he has pushed dya and people shouldn't align him with dya
1645-6 Ara responds to Zelda and Visor above (see also next interactions through #1658)
1663 Esooa not talking much because dya and Maple doing basically nothing
1665/7 Esooa criticizes Visor for defensiveness and for claiming to much cred for dya push
1669 Maple: "I'm not sure how to talk about my feelings toward dya without coming off like a dick lol Theyre almost certainly dying today so I'm not particularly fussed"
1684 Maple: "Amy and dya flipping would say more than I ever could"
1685 dya asks eph about maple meta when eph is finding maple more towny
1688 dya responds to maple regret for choosing Csargo over dya D1, defends own D2 activity/WIM
1697 Cuth thinks CL usually scum in GH/dya t/t world (see also next few posts)
1698 GH wavers over choosing between Dolby and dya, even though dya probably best

1706 CL again recommends ousting outside GH/dya D2 (dya responds approvingly, which CL acknowledges)
1735 CL asks dya about why Manasi D1 good (dya response in #1752
1742 Cuth: "i gth gh/dya both v at this point but it's a low confidence thing and that's a lot of why i don't like monty's posts today"
1746 Zelda votes Monty as ideal CW to dya
1747 Cuth on tilting CL/Monty over dya, see also surrounding context (Tell me this isn't great equity between Cuth and CL)
1751 CL thread reread changes mind on ousting outside GH/dya
1753-4 dya urges CL to kill her in order to torment GH, whom she has as likely town
1757 CL agrees with dya on GH town, follows up by voting her
1759/67 GH finds dya's post on making him suffer the towniest of the day (he later changes his mind), sarcastically expresses willingness to stay on Dolby
1760/66 CL team analysis again, but now Visor more suss, GH less, and Esooa made exclusive with dya ("1 MAX")
1761 Eph no longer feels like dya is a hit (Ara asks about it)
1779 Zelda: "Is the thread dead because of time or because wolves are happy with its state? Rask, Monty, Dya all town would be a disaster."
1788 Visor: "im fine killing dya or esooa (i guess gh too?)"

1807 GH points out CL called for D1 wagons of Csargo-dya-Rask
1814 As Dya wagon finally begins to run away at EOD CL drops his founding vote on the wagon anhd switches for 20 minutes onto the Dolby wagon, where Eph and GH are voting, switching back when it's obvious there's no traction
1818 Hally explains reasons for voting dya, reps Esooa if dya scum (Visor likes the post)
1820 Zelda unsure about voting dya over spicy wagon
1847 Eph posts that dya being town doesn't make GH town (Visor likes the post)
1874 CL's legacy post is good, but 1898 leans contradict it
1897 Visor: "i am a little worried that sunbae was killed to either lock in a dya v read or to no longer protect dya"

1901 Hally top town are ara, eph, visor and capage bop probably fine too and esooa should be clear if dya is a wolf
1905 CL thinks GH-dya not necessarily paired, has said it before?
1915 Ara last-minute switch from Dya to Visor for messaging/legacy

[Arapocalypse]

I'm pretty shrug about the Bop posts about 1716? Like... yeah it was a light defense, but also it was fairly obvious that dya was going down yesterday regardless of what happened/they were never digging themselves out of that hole; I'm not putting that much stock into a lot of interactions with them yesterday, mostly just for day 1!!

Pretty much only ones I'm giving credit for are Ephemeral and Esooa, but that was also continued from day 1, so... yeah!

Also yes, I said earlier not to clear Bop for day 1; that doesn't mean I'm not lightly townreading him, just that he should not be cleared for not w/w associations!!!

[Arapocalypse]

Point being that yes, the wagon on them only appeared at EoD, but from threadfeels it was consensus and people were wagoning elsewhere more to make points, than not!!

Fairly certain I referenced this ~halfway through the day, when talking to Visor after getting back into stuff!!!

[Montmorency]

I don't get why so few people have recognized how dangerous Maple is with his spam and obscurantism sprinkled with serious posts. Maple could be partners with practically anyone here, and I think that's likely consciously maneuvered.