Rampage Out of Space

[Laurentus]

Wait. Could Winston be the SK? That would explain HK's tinfoiling because of my proposed PoE.

[Winston Hughes]

Wait. Could Winston be the SK? That would explain HK's tinfoiling because of my proposed PoE.

I'm not following your line of thought here. Could you unpack it?

[Laurentus]

With Csargo mechanically proven as well that leaves me with scum reads in this order
Vro
Winston
Dolby
HK

And Sk reads
HK
Dolby
Winston

With the lack of SK kills, I am assuming rb or maybe a holster. If it was rb, I am assuming by mafia and that means mafia knows who it is. If it is holster then they don't, and are probably going to be trying to kill them, because if flavor holds out, sk wins in a 1v1v1. If it was a sk holster, thanks it has allowed for mech clears of two townies.
What that leaves is that we need to kill a mafia, and we definitely don't want to hit sk as that screws us. Even if we hit a town today, if the sk hits a mafia tonight we can still pull through. And possibly win it. With that in mind I cannot be convinced to vote for HK or Dolby, my top two SK picks. The only choice I have left is between Winston and Vro. Given Laurentus being proven to me, I will most likely be sheeping them onto Vro.

Wait, where did I say I was going to vote Vro? I specifically said the opposite: that I wasn't chopping there.

[Winston Hughes]

Wait, where did I say I was going to vote Vro? I specifically said the opposite: that I wasn't chopping there.

That whole post does seem like a rather ham-fisted way to justify not voting for either of his possible buddies.

[Laurentus]

I'm not following your line of thought here. Could you unpack it?

You're sitting at a 50% chance of being properly scanned as Town, and HK has gone from "Laurentus and Vro are Town" to "let's tinfoil Lau" a bit, which could easily be explained by simply being the SK and realising he's been boxed in, and trying to stir some shit in an attempt to escape said box, but it can also be explained by being actual Town and suddenly distrusting the guy pushing the PoE, in this case me.

[Laurentus]

You're sitting at a 50% chance of being properly scanned as Town, and HK has gone from "Laurentus and Vro are Town" to "let's tinfoil Lau" a bit, which could easily be explained by simply being the SK and realising he's been boxed in, and trying to stir some shit in an attempt to escape said box, but it can also be explained by being actual Town and suddenly distrusting the guy pushing the PoE, in this case me.

To further elaborate, Winston, the reason my PoE would be wrong is if I've let the SK or a Wolf slip into my don't-chops. And I'm thinking that would most likely be you.

[Winston Hughes]

You're sitting at a 50% chance of being properly scanned as Town, and HK has gone from "Laurentus and Vro are Town" to "let's tinfoil Lau" a bit, which could easily be explained by simply being the SK and realising he's been boxed in, and trying to stir some shit in an attempt to escape said box, but it can also be explained by being actual Town and suddenly distrusting the guy pushing the PoE, in this case me.

I mean, from my perspective, it can only be the former.

But, okay, I understand your thought process now.

And, to be clear, I am never pushing the Paranoia line today as an actual thing. If somehow you really are scum here, you totally deserve this win.

[Laurentus]

Well, @hollowkatt, if you're not scum or the SK, then where has my PoE gone wrong?

[Winston Hughes]

To further elaborate, Winston, the reason my PoE would be wrong is if I've let the SK or a Wolf slip into my don't-chops. And I'm thinking that would most likely be you.

Of course.

And, although from a winning-the-game perspective, it would be better if that investigation had fully cleared me, from a me-enjoying-myself perspective this is very much preferable.

[Laurentus]

I mean, from my perspective, it can only be the former.

But, okay, I understand your thought process now.

And, to be clear, I am never pushing the Paranoia line today as an actual thing. If somehow you really are scum here, you totally deserve this win.

Wait, so you now think that HK is the SK? What happened to your read of Dolby as SK?

[Winston Hughes]

Wait, so you now think that HK is the SK? What happened to your read of Dolby as SK?

I meant between the choices you presented.

[Winston Hughes]

And, to be clear, I'm not reading Dolby as the sk.

I'm just working from that hypothesis currently.

[Winston Hughes]

To unpack that a bit...

Dolby and Borg are the obvious pairing. They've been buddying hard for all to see.

HK and Dolby are antagonists. They've been slapping each other about.

HK and Borg have not been anything notable that I can recall, and so appear less likely to be buddies than D/B and more likely than H/D, based solely on surface appearances.

But isn't that exactly where the real buddies are more likely to end up in this situation, neither wanting to make the connection too obvious nor pushing each other too hard towards the firing line?

This is why my hypothesis has Dolby as the sk, at least until I've gotten into the reading.

[Winston Hughes]

Does that make sense?

[Laurentus]

What motive would Dolby and Borg possibly have had to appear so buddy-buddy, other than just being buddy-buddy because they're just Wolves.

[Laurentus]

I detest WIFOM on principle.

[Winston Hughes]

What motive would Dolby and Borg possibly have had to appear so buddy-buddy, other than just being buddy-buddy because they're just Wolves.

I think they have a meta-game relationship going on. Something about cop claims and paragons of towniness.

[Winston Hughes]

I detest WIFOM on principle.

I embrace it as an inescapable part of this ridiculous, maddening, and horribly addictive game.

Although that is a major reason why I only play twice a year these days.

[Winston Hughes]

Why is it WIFOM to think D/B's buddying is less likely from actual buddies than from non-buddies, but not the reverse?

[Winston Hughes]

What motive would Dolby and Borg possibly have had to appear so buddy-buddy, other than just being buddy-buddy because they're just Wolves.

Another answer is that from each of their perspectives (regardless of which is scum and which is sk), the relationship was working for them.

It might very well have led to suspicion about why the other was playing along, but so long as it was helping their own cause there would seem little reason to disturb things.

[Laurentus]

Something to note here, although it should maybe have been obvious and I'm just having a slow morning for only realising it now: I think the Wolves are going to want to push for the SK to be lynched here.

And I've been thinking about how weird it is for us to be at LYLO. The only think that makes sense for why we need to chop scum is that the SK has a delayed kill, and has already chosen to target a Townie for the night. Therefore, even if we chop the SK the could would still be successful and come night, we'd lose 2 townies, putting us at parity with the Wolves.

Given that we are losing a Townie regardless, if we chop a Wolf, we still lose two townies, but then the distribution is 2:1:1 Town:Scum:SK for the last day.

Therefore, we as Town don't really have a choice but to treat the SK as Town today, and SK, whoever you are, if you want a chance at the win, you'll either have to get a Townie mischopped today (quickest route to victory), or take your chances with us today and help get a Wolf chopped, so you can get another chance at fooling Town in the next day phase.

[Winston Hughes]

And I've been thinking about how weird it is for us to be at LYLO. The only think that makes sense for why we need to chop scum is that the SK has a delayed kill, and has already chosen to target a Townie for the night. Therefore, even if we chop the SK the could would still be successful and come night, we'd lose 2 townies, putting us at parity with the Wolves.

Doesn't that assume that the scum don't target the same townie?

[Laurentus]

Why is it WIFOM to think D/B's buddying is less likely from actual buddies than from non-buddies, but not the reverse?

Good point.

[Laurentus]

Doesn't that assume that the scum don't target the same townie?

Again, good point, so there could also be another double-kill from the SK headed our way, in which case even if we lynch scum today, it doesn't even guarantee we don't just lose during the night.

[Winston Hughes]

Doesn't that assume that the scum don't target the same townie?

Although I suppose it could be a delayed day-kill, but that's getting awfully specific.

[Winston Hughes]

This is why I decided to just not even think about it, despite such speculation being one of the game's great pleasures.

[Laurentus]

Let's see if we can find some sort of consensus path forward here:

Do we agree that Borg is the most likely scum bud in both an HK and Dolby world? I still have reservations about chopping there because of the SK potential, but I also think HK has the greatest potential to be actually be the SK. Borg's comment explaining that he was thankful for the Panda and Nanook kills gives me serious pause, though.

[Winston Hughes]

Let's see if we can find some sort of consensus path forward here:

Do we agree that Borg is the most likely scum bud in both an HK and Dolby world? I still have reservations about chopping there because of the SK potential, but I also think HK has the greatest potential to be actually be the SK. Borg's comment explaining that he was thankful for the Panda and Nanook kills gives me serious pause, though.

I want to do some reading before moving towards any kind of commitment.

[Winston Hughes]

@Dolby @hollowkatt @BorgPicard

Suggest you all claim sk asap.

Least convincing gets chopped.

[Winston Hughes]

Rereading the first 200 posts has not done much to support my hypothesis.

Borg/Tim being buddies is very plausible.

HK/Tim is less so, but I could still see it.

Borg/HK/Tim though? If so, I have no idea what the hell they were trying to do there.