Rampage Out of Space

[Laurentus]

Well one of Dolby and me is the SK, that I can garuntee.

And you know this because...?

[Laurentus]

Good news, Vro, given your town lean on Panda, I have come to the conclusion that you are definitely not the SK.

[hollowkatt]

If Winston and HK are both Town, Vro has infiltrated my core. The same is true if anyone else like Borg or Dolby are also Town. I am just having a lot of trouble seeing that world, and I can't get passed the derp. What team is he even on? Maybe Dolby's?

The only reason I can think of for why the derp wouldn't work is if Vro just genuinely didn't get involved much with the decision to kill Lewwyn. Or if Lewwyn was killed for completely unrelated reasons, like just being the most unlynchable townie. Oh, god, that's actually plausible, innit?

[BorgPicard]

And you know this because...?

Well I scanned one of them and they turned up sk

[Winston Hughes]

Turns out that, for various reasons, I'm not as available as much as I thought today.

I'll check in occasionally to answer any questions or change my vote as needed, but I'm still looking at an absolute cut-off of an hour before eod.

We can't risk splitting the town vote, so I'll go wherever Csargo leads.

For what it's worth, I think borg is scum, and all he's been doing since the tracker claim fell flat is enjoying himself while trying to push paranoia that he's really the sk.

[Laurentus]

Well, your life kinda hangs in the balance here, so help me look for scum!Vro worlds?

[Vroendal]

@Vroendal, I am having a massive case of the paranoia and I need your reassurance.

Well, you need to be paranoid about everyone at some point. I've never seen a wolf team that didn't communicate strongly about the night kill, there's two wolves left, lack of communication would be very counter-productive and I would have recognized that. Lewwyn might have been killed for being more unlynchable actually, sure, but I sincerely doubt the wolves weren't thinking about the pzelda connection at all. Defending myself from hypothetical teams I may be on will just end up at WIFOM with you, but I can assure you that I'm really not teamed with anyone.

[hollowkatt]

Well, your life kinda hangs in the balance here, so help me look for scum!Vro worlds?

It really doesn't though. Unless you're saying I'm the most likely wolf here?

[Vroendal]

...and my desire not to have Vro die as one of the few people who I can read fairly well here, and indeed, am presently town-reading for his tendency to WIFOM himself into oblivion and have a very sincere tone as town which I have never seen him replicate as Wolf
...

[I]Nothing but sincerity as far as the eye can see[./I]

[Laurentus]

It really doesn't though. Unless you're saying I'm the most likely wolf here?

I've honestly kinda started wolf-reading you for the exchanges I outlined above, yeah.

[Laurentus]

[I]Nothing but sincerity as far as the eye can see[./I]

But where is the WIFOM? We're at LYLO and you have been remarkably not-paranoid.

[Vroendal]

Ignore that I am technologically inept. I will gladly communicate about anything further if anynone so wishes. I've gotten over my BP paranoia and I'm happy with my vote right now, Lau if you see reason to switch, let's hear it out.

[hollowkatt]

I've honestly kinda started wolf-reading you for the exchanges I outlined above, yeah.

ok gl with that lol

[Laurentus]

Ignore that I am technologically inept. I will gladly communicate about anything further if anynone so wishes. I've gotten over my BP paranoia and I'm happy with my vote right now, Lau if you see reason to switch, let's hear it out.

No, you have a point there, I can find few posts now that make should make me doubt you, but notice how Dolby is also very much in my PoE, despite not having a lot of great reasons to SR. I fully believe you would be that good, especially with Dolby helping you out.

[Vroendal]

But where is the WIFOM? We're at LYLO and you have been remarkably not-paranoid.

I feel like the wolves are boxed in a little too well, I've had my moments, but Winston's tone and better odds of being town is really doing it for me right now. The only thing I'm paranoid about is whether BP's the SK, I"m considering that but I want to hear Dolby's take on BP's allegation against him. BP as town doesn't work because if Dolby's the SK, that leaves Winston paired with HK, which I'm not accepting as a possible world-view right now. If BP's the wolf, he'll be lying about Dolby, if BP's the SK, well, I'm not sure which is why I want to hear from Dolby.

[Laurentus]

This is why I wanted to hammer this LYLO out quickly. This is probably just my paranoia doing me in. I will get over it somehow.

[Laurentus]

I feel like the wolves are boxed in a little too well, I've had my moments, but Winston's tone and better odds of being town is really doing it for me right now. The only thing I'm paranoid about is whether BP's the SK, I"m considering that but I want to hear Dolby's take on BP's allegation against him. BP as town doesn't work because if Dolby's the SK, that leaves Winston paired with HK, which I'm not accepting as a possible world-view right now. If BP's the wolf, he'll be lying about Dolby, if BP's the SK, well, I'm not sure which is why I want to hear from Dolby.

Welcome back to my town core. Now what's your opinion of HK?

[Vroendal]

Welcome back to my town core. Now what's your opinion of HK?

Thank you. HK came out of the bout with Winston looking worse to me, but still as the SK. The thunderdome idea in particular felt bad to me, both from the perspective that he would probably lose it and because that is actually how I lost my most recent game, I had a target pointed on a wolf's back but the town decided to go through with a thunderdome between two separate players, which town lost. If he's the SK he's forcing his PoE onto the thread in the sincere hopes of catching a wolf, and his antagonistic interactions with Winston is probably giving him a bias, if he's a wolf, I actually don't know what his goal would be there. It's weird.

[Laurentus]

Thank you. HK came out of the bout with Winston looking worse to me, but still as the SK. The thunderdome idea in particular felt bad to me, both from the perspective that he would probably lose it and because that is actually how I lost my most recent game, I had a target pointed on a wolf's back but the town decided to go through with a thunderdome between two separate players, which town lost. If he's the SK he's forcing his PoE onto the thread in the sincere hopes of catching a wolf, and his antagonistic interactions with Winston is probably giving him a bias, if he's a wolf, I actually don't know what his goal would be there. It's weird.

And what do you make of my analysis of the situation starting here: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053822854

[hollowkatt]

Thank you. HK came out of the bout with Winston looking worse to me, but still as the SK. The thunderdome idea in particular felt bad to me, both from the perspective that he would probably lose it and because that is actually how I lost my most recent game, I had a target pointed on a wolf's back but the town decided to go through with a thunderdome between two separate players, which town lost. If he's the SK he's forcing his PoE onto the thread in the sincere hopes of catching a wolf, and his antagonistic interactions with Winston is probably giving him a bias, if he's a wolf, I actually don't know what his goal would be there. It's weird.

occams razor says town btw :)

Ok, if I'm SK here why do I try to dome anyone today? Everyone and their mother has been saying we need to find and chop a wolf today, not the SK. If we don't chop a wolf town loses the game. This is a fact.
So if I'm SK the play is "continue to be townie". I can't win as SK today, I can only lose.

The real question is: what does wolf HK stand to gain from playing like he has today, right? I don't express suspicion of Laurentus, I just kill him at night. I allow the vro clear to stand b/c it doesn't hurt me. Dolby thinks I'm SK and isn't hunting me today, Winston probably doesn't hunt me today either. I let town do whatever it is they want to do by virtue of just staying out of the way.
Instead I sus everyone, throw votes around like they're candy at a parade, and generally antagonize literally everyone.

[Vroendal]

And what do you make of my analysis of the situation starting here: https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...post2053822854

I think he'sthe SK genuinely angling to be seen as town, even though it's futile, in the hopes of getting the best odds of actually winning, or if it ends up 1v1v1 or something like that somehow, trying to figure out if the townie remaining has a bias against/for a certain faction before he reveals. Being seen as the SK doesn't work for him long-term, so he's going all-out pushing players and seeing what sticks, setting up for possible mis-lynches later. Maybe. It's a weird series of posts for sure. If he is scum, how does that work with the PoE? Do you think he would be paired with BP or Dolby?

[Vroendal]

occams razor says town btw :)

Ok, if I'm SK here why do I try to dome anyone today? Everyone and their mother has been saying we need to find and chop a wolf today, not the SK. If we don't chop a wolf town loses the game. This is a fact.
So if I'm SK the play is "continue to be townie". I can't win as SK today, I can only lose.

The real question is: what does wolf HK stand to gain from playing like he has today, right? I don't express suspicion of Laurentus, I just kill him at night. I allow the vro clear to stand b/c it doesn't hurt me. Dolby thinks I'm SK and isn't hunting me today, Winston probably doesn't hunt me today either. I let town do whatever it is they want to do by virtue of just staying out of the way.
Instead I sus everyone, throw votes around like they're candy at a parade, and generally antagonize literally everyone.

You would try to dome because you know it's futile and that we would be wary of letting that happen because we all think you're the SK, you're testing the waters. I have no idea what the criterion for the SK double-kill was, but I doubt you would only lose.

I'm not sure. I don't have any real knowledge of your meta. Because Csargo is actually cleared you would kill him first over Lau probably, the more suspicion and chaos at the end, the more chance you have. You're rp'ing town here, probably because it's fun for you and I respect that. You feel safe antagonizing because you don't think there's a real chance you're lynched, but sitting by passively won't do much for you later. Being able to affect the thread has benefits for you.

[Vroendal]

I actually think that what will happen is that we'll lynch a wolf today, but because the SK didn't kill last night he'll have a double-kill tonight (the possible pattern is looking scary), and we'll either end up at 1v1v1 (after two town kills from the SK and 1 separate kill from the remaining wolf), or the SK kills the wolf (2v1) or the wolf kills the SK (2v1). Scary stuff.

[hollowkatt]

You would try to dome because you know it's futile and that we would be wary of letting that happen because we all think you're the SK, you're testing the waters. I have no idea what the criterion for the SK double-kill was, but I doubt you would only lose.

I'm not sure. I don't have any real knowledge of your meta. Because Csargo is actually cleared you would kill him first over Lau probably, the more suspicion and chaos at the end, the more chance you have. You're rp'ing town here, probably because it's fun for you and I respect that. You feel safe antagonizing because you don't think there's a real chance you're lynched, but sitting by passively won't do much for you later. Being able to affect the thread has benefits for you.

except that csargo isn't a threat to me so why kill him? He's not expressed suspicion against me, he's not been super active and taking advantage of his confirmed town status, and frankly he's super low impact right now. Laurentus otoh is an active threat to me so he needs to go. He's also functioning as town leader, so again, needs to go.

[hollowkatt]

I actually think that what will happen is that we'll lynch a wolf today, but because the SK didn't kill last night he'll have a double-kill tonight (the possible pattern is looking scary), and we'll either end up at 1v1v1 (after two town kills from the SK and 1 separate kill from the remaining wolf), or the SK kills the wolf (2v1) or the wolf kills the SK (2v1). Scary stuff.

oh! who's the wolf we're going to chop today?

[hollowkatt]

does everyone just not give a fuck that Dolby has basically vanished?
Winston at least has been here trying to solve and posting. Laurentus/Vro the same.
Borg is here, solving not so much.
Csargo, for being hard cleared, is missing in action as well.

Seems to me Dolby ought to be the number one chop for the day as if anyone is a wolf sitting back and letting town tear itself apart it's him. Borg guaranteed is not town, I just dunno which flavor.
vote: dolby
Get on board plebs

[Montmorency]

HOST TALLY 5-2

Borg (3): Vro, Laur, Winston
Winston (1): Borg
Dolby (1): Hollow

Not Voting (2): Dolby, Csargo


Movement

[Hollow] Laur >> Dolby >> Winston >> Dolby
[Laur] Dolby >> Borg

[BorgPicard]

does everyone just not give a fuck that Dolby has basically vanished?
Winston at least has been here trying to solve and posting. Laurentus/Vro the same.
Borg is here, solving not so much.
Csargo, for being hard cleared, is missing in action as well.

Seems to me Dolby ought to be the number one chop for the day as if anyone is a wolf sitting back and letting town tear itself apart it's him. Borg guaranteed is not town, I just dunno which flavor.
vote: dolby
Get on board plebs

Well I would but I am pretending that they are the SK

[Vroendal]

except that csargo isn't a threat to me so why kill him? He's not expressed suspicion against me, he's not been super active and taking advantage of his confirmed town status, and frankly he's super low impact right now. Laurentus otoh is an active threat to me so he needs to go. He's also functioning as town leader, so again, needs to go.

His very existence is a threat because in a situation with the F4 or F3, he's guaranteed to be town. I don't think the baddies are gonna keep him around. I suspect you'll try a double-kill on Csargo and me, and let the wolves take out Lau, but this is all WIFOM anyway. I don't know what you or the wolves are thinking, I can only speculate.

oh! who's the wolf we're going to chop today?

Either BP or Dolby works for me, with a preference for BP because I'm more certain of his guilt (in that he's never town and I think you're the SK). I haven't eliminated BP/Winston yet, my top suspicion is BP/Dolby though. I would rather take what I think is the clearest course.

[hollowkatt]

Well I would but I am pretending that they are the SK

I acknowledge that BorgPicard has posted