Casual december game

[EnderWiggin]

villagers

ladd - lack clear

taffy - genuinely lack clear for their d2 posting and post 1375 is just never from a wolf

cape - the obvious villager by solving

vulgard - the obvious villager by solving #2+ i am a sucker for some of their more "emotional" posting and i buy it. also my guess for who got shot by pizza

renata - never played with them but they post extremely sharp and very direct. not trying to appease at all and notices/pushes things wolves don't imo

leaning villa

csargo - similarish to renata but a bit less strong. good thoughts/solving

dya - i havent been too hot in reading dya lately but i think the way they are making reads at their own pace and the SNARK everytime anyone dares to shade or wolf read them is >>>rand villa

upper PoE (mostly villa leans that i don't feel strong enough about)


boq- has done even less than me eheh. but when he posts i agree with everything he says just dunno if its enough to really move him up


HK - push on pizza d1 was villagery, d2 posting seems fine. keeps going after players who he should know will bite back (pizza,dya) which is rand iyam

monty - dunno maybe he should be the tier below but i bought some of his d1 posts (the yolo team guess, the pushback on ender). if ender is a wolf i think he looks ok


low PoE (null but leaning wolf by PoE)

visor - i mostly read visor by how much he is pondering different scenarios/being paranoid about the direction the game is taking cause ime thats his biggest villa tell. i don't really see it in his d1, kindaaaa see it in his late d2. couple of posts also give me the creeps (post about cape and 1 about monty around mid d2)

kage - ngl the formatting made me skip their huge post and the rest of the posts do nothing for me (and push on HK feels weak)

wolves
ender - refer to my big post
amy - refer to my big post+ their wall post feels like a wolf making a huge post to get people off them



this is where i am at

i still think we should flip ender. if he is not a wolf gimme the desperado tonight, like for real

if he is a wolf, always kill amy next

Worth thinking about this.

[Montmorency]

Why are Boquise and HK labeled as lovers on your list?

See first page of D3.

[EnderWiggin]

I'm not advocating for letting both of them live till LyLo, but if there is another shot tomorrow they can shoot within the two of them (being clear about their target this time) and we'll have a townclear either because the shooter dies and we yeet the one that wasn't shot or the wolf dies and the other is clear. Today's elimination should be about other people imo.

If there is no second shot we yeet one of them right before LyLo so at least we know where to vote if we're wrong. Tell me if I'm overlooking something.


Also realised why Asks pretended to be the desperado himself, that way if he lived the wolves wouldn't be tempted to go PR hunting. So at least that part now makes sense to me.

This post in context kinda feels unpaired from ladd too.

[dyachei]

it's hard to keep speaking up for amy when she barely comes into the thread anymore, but that's not really AI for her. If it is, I'd expect more effort out of wolf!amy

[Vulgard]

No more kids' gloves, it's time to acknowledge that Ender is the linchpin to the entire game, and there's nothing good about the guy.

@ladd
@dyachei

Lettuce defeat Ender.

Vote: Ender

This is one of the boldest posts I have ever seen if it's w/w/w.

[Renata]

Yeah.

Just going to note for the record that the dynamic most similar to dyachei-amy here that I ever saw corresponded to wolf dyachei/town amy. I think Boquise's conjecture that wolf!Dya would be inconvenienced by never being able to vote town!Amy is doing a lot of heavy lifting and could easily be wrong. And the other half (town Dya could never be wrong) is just uncharitable. If Amy's *that* obvious of town, then Dyachei shouldn't be the only one able to say so.

[EnderWiggin]

ladd is lean villager so is taffy. I think the way taffy's approaching the game is decent. I find myself nodding along with his posts

This comparatively is a rand wolf. (Explains Taffy but not ladd.)

[Vulgard]

Just going to note for the record that the dynamic most similar to dyachei-amy here that I ever saw corresponded to wolf dyachei/town amy. I think Boquise's conjecture that wolf!Dya would be inconvenienced by never being able to vote town!Amy is doing a lot of heavy lifting and could easily be wrong. And the other half (town Dya could never be wrong) is just uncharitable. If Amy's *that* obvious of town, then Dyachei shouldn't be the only one able to say so.

Yeahhh maybe it's unsafe to assume they're same alignment but I definitely want to kill in there.

[dyachei]

This comparatively is a rand wolf. (Explains Taffy but not ladd.)

usually when ladd wolfs, he's quick to call me a wolf and he wasn't doing that when i questioned him

[Renata]

Where did you question him?

[EnderWiggin]

What lots of info will we learn with an Ender flip? @ladd

I'm kinda putting Boq in the "Not now" pile for this post alone.

[EnderWiggin]

some worlds i have been thinking of:

ladd disregards pizza maybe shooting Ender for the sake of his own read on Ender.

Visor loudly declaring that both he and ender are town

both discrediting Pizza's play. Visor more so.



I was thinking of ladd's possible scum motivations versus town motivations
If ladd is scum, Ender is always town. He is trying to ignore some semi-mech and make the thread do so to get an "impossible" yeet, as in, getting a cleared Ender chopped. This is within ladd's wolf range. However, would he be so direct with it? Not walking towards it carefully? Instead of TMIing Ender town by simply mentally eliminating him as a possible target and go for someone else?

Like if both Visor and Ender are town, and ladd is scum, he could just as easily park on Visor tbh

Or ladd is town and just really really believes in his scum read and will go for it over the semi-mech stuff. He is however not pleading for people to follow him because he is so sure, instead he goes ciao eventually and c'est la vie.

I think by occam's razors, ladd is town tbh. It is way more similar to his modus operandi as town than scum tbh.


I think Visor as scum needs to belittle pizza's play and move the focus elsewhere from the semi-mech. It is interesting though that Visor wants to move it away from all three of him, vulgard and ender tbh. However, as town I expect him to play similarly, so it is a tough cookie tbh

Okay Boq is towncore tbqh

[Renata]

also + about lunching ender besides 1)hopefully getting us a wolf, 2) solving eod1wagons and 3)giving us lots of info on whats going on

is that if he is a wolf you get a free vulgard v peek

The post of Ladd's that Ender highlighted Boquise's response to. I'm not sure whether or not "solving eod1wagons" is a suggestion that he's going to go after Amy in the event of an Ender town flip, but it might be.

[EnderWiggin]

I don't think I can go back through a hundred posts for this purpose, not on this site.

Taffy, Cape town from earlier. Leaning town on Vulgard from posting today. Maybe Dya? I'm afraid of them. Town on you also from today.

Boquise probably town, Kage maybe, I don't really know. Monty a little below Kage.

Ladd, I don't know. I tend to like their posting when I read it (aside from the initial vote on Logic from day one) and then I get a little distance and don't like it as much. Nothing consolidated, not going to try today.

Hollowkatt, Visor wolf. Still reading Ender very hard as wolf outside of the more emotional posts, and have decided to suppress that.

Dya's tone read is the only thing keeping me from going back to Amy. In a vacuum I'd lynch her in a second.

Not a hard read but that quote is in the range of wolves talking about wolves.

[EnderWiggin]

Vote: Dyachei

I think this I believe more than Amy.

I kinda like Renata a lot but I am noting things.

Boq is just town.

Monty is not w/w with Dyachei but if Dya is town then Monty is definitely someone I'd sus.

Revision of thoughts to happen in the morning.

I'm now collapsing now that I've done a quick check through all of game thread for Ladd interactions

[Renata]

I wish I'd been around for day one. My reaction to Ladd's initial vote on Logic was that it was "dogshit".

[Montmorency]

taffy is a wolf because there is no attitude, just treading water, no push, no sassitude, just posting reasonable sounding thinsg while not moving the game state forward

this seems completely opposite to how they seem to be posting

afaict they have plenty of attitude/sassiness

dya is a wolf for the lack of game progression and focusin gon the logic read LOL (and the amy white knight is eh)

maybe if it was 2 years ago but their meta changed a ton

Antispew?

hollowkatt is a wolf cause mac sucks donkey balls and always gets reads like tha twrong and hkatt hasnt hit the towny explanation standards i like from him

did you read the sorcerer game you hosted? i don't think he is posting differently from there

(but i concede he may be a wolf)

Notably different treatment of HK vs. dyachei and Taffy - antipaired to HK?

sometimes ww is an easy game and you get to clear people for free



and even besides that taffy is the villageriest player itg IMO

i can villa case them if needed but they'd be my 1 do not ever kill

Ladd hard-defends taffy against Visor.

Ladd should have at least one partner between Taffy-dyach-HK for sure.

I think dyach deserves pressure more than Amy right now, and Taffy more than HK.

There's more ladd stuff around those posts, including one post where he praises Renata but disagrees with her on dyach shade.

i cased him (and you even used my case on ender to say i a wolfy) and i am fairly sure i am not the only who did?

plenty of people pointed out problems with his posts

do you really not understand the wolfread on him

Really don't think ender-ladd is a thing.

[Montmorency]

BTW I refuse to believe that there were zero scum on Visor yesterday. Visor was genuinely dangerous to the Mafia.

Csargo-Taffy?

vulgard ,all three of u me and ender are v

where are you looking to

who is suspect in this world to you

can you pelase talk to me about ladd and taffy?

Aaayyyyyyyyy

normally the weirder monty is, the more likely he is a villager

he has been... less weird, doesnt have his off the wall pushes, doesnt have his soulread target that he pushes for with ominous wording - thats what stands out to me from him

really interested to see what he comes up with later

Ender was the push, bro - don't demand novelty from me.
@Visorslash

[dyachei]

ladd, have you read my posts? do you have a read on me?

@Renata

[Vulgard]

BTW I refuse to believe that there were zero scum on Visor yesterday. Visor was genuinely dangerous to the Mafia.

Csargo-Taffy?




Aaayyyyyyyyy



Ender was the push, bro - don't demand novelty from me.
@Visorslash

Yeah, I wanted to kill someone for Visor after that and I'm glad I did.

[Vulgard]

Vote: Dyachei

I think this I believe more than Amy.

I kinda like Renata a lot but I am noting things.

Boq is just town.

Monty is not w/w with Dyachei but if Dya is town then Monty is definitely someone I'd sus.

Revision of thoughts to happen in the morning.

I'm now collapsing now that I've done a quick check through all of game thread for Ladd interactions

I like this.

[Raskolnikov]

Amy (2): Boquise, Vulgard
Kage(1): Monty
Monty(1): HK
Csargo (1): Renata
Renata (1) : Csargo
Dya (1): Ender

[Montmorency]

i mean you even wolfread ender yousrself lol

i genuinely don't get why you are turning around so hard on him rn. just cause of the chance he got shot?

ladd pissed at visor for TRing Ender. Visor also rejects ladd's praise of Renata's post, and ladd defends it.

cause it's an hard post to make with tmi that at least 1 of you is a villager. alas it's an ahrd thought to fake as a wolf

See here. Are these exchanges indicative of maf fabricating reads for antispew, or is it just spew? Feels a little more like he's trying to pocket Renata to me.



Tangentially, recall that ladd was repeatedly expressing anger at Pizza throughout D2 for the way he played his PR. Now we can say he was mad that the uncertainty between shooting ender and Vulgard (though I would say it was obv Vulgard) meant they couldn't NK the mech-clear townie. Again, seems like genuine anger, so yet more evidence for locking Ender town.

#Trusttheplan
Pizza always plays 3D chess.

let's say you [Visor] are villager

why not something like ender/amy/kage/(hk/monty/maybeee boq)

i feel like you are either a villager going too down in the rabbit holes and making the game harder on himself or a wolf going for the YOLO. i am leaning the 2nd right now but WHO KNOWS

or it's also possible i am the villager on upside down world but if ender/amy are v/v idek what teams are possible, i think my top villagers +dya are all villagers a lot of the times

imo dya was very villagery last couple of pages, i feel the renata/HK pushes are the "hipster" pushes dya makes as a villager where they think they latch onto something and go for it despite what everyone else thinks

boq idk

i am not the best boq reader. he has felt very chill this game and i havent really disagreed with anything he has said

i also think he defended a lot of people i think are villagers so that wins him points too

but clearly none of those things are impossible to fake as a wolf

kage feels like someone who is gonna die to the villagers regardless of alignment

best i got is that he is not w/w with boq (probably)

renata you seems to have more experience with them than me and i have no clue what their wolf range is but if a random player was posting like they are this game i'd easily call them a villager and call it a day

for amy my only fear is dya villa reading them, maybe i should respect dya's read more. but besides that i think they have been wolfy (tho not excessively so) and they fit like a glove in an ender!wolf world

Multiple ways to interpret these leans, again, but could definitely support a case against dya. Vulgard, do you think you can extract anything by comparing how he talks about the different people he names (such as in the posts I've quoted).

[Vulgard]

vote: dyachei

The posts from ladd tell me this is the more likely partner. Though I really feel like it could go either way with Amy/dya.

[Montmorency]

Vote: Taffy for now

[Renata]

Antispew?



Notably different treatment of HK vs. dyachei and Taffy - antipaired to HK?





Ladd hard-defends taffy against Visor.

Ladd should have at least one partner between Taffy-dyach-HK for sure.

I think dyach deserves pressure more than Amy right now, and Taffy more than HK.

There's more ladd stuff around those posts, including one post where he praises Renata but disagrees with her on dyach shade.






Really don't think ender-ladd is a thing.

What about that response on Hollowkatt makes you think "anti-pair"? Granted I think Hollowkatt is scummier than the day is long but that doesn't look like distancing to you? The first instinct is to defend. Then unlike the other two, concede that maybe Hollowkatt actually is a wolf.

[EnderWiggin]

Popping back in to say:

I am sorry for the irritation yesterday Pizza.

Knowing your role now you actually played it very well. Because the target self resolves and you end up clearing multiple people on a good day.

The wifom between me n Vul plus the subtle references that convinced me I was the shot. Very nice.

[Renata]

let's say you are villager

why not something like ender/amy/kage/(hk/monty/maybeee boq)



i feel like you are either a villager going too down in the rabbit holes and making the game harder on himself or a wolf going for the YOLO. i am leaning the 2nd right now but WHO KNOWS

or it's also possible i am the villager on upside down world but if ender/amy are v/v idek what teams are possible, i think my top villagers +dya are all villagers a lot of the times

Post linked by Monty.

Not that it seems to be going that way right now but this firms up my opinion that Amy is a bad lynch. Second indication I've seen that if Ender flipped town yesterday, he wanted to go after Amy next and on the exact same pretext -- resolving d1 wagons because it simply must contain a wolf.

[Montmorency]

A further point: ladd was pretty much UTR for almost everyone by D3; I do not believe he was expecting to die anytime soon while formulating his D2 content.

What about that response on Hollowkatt makes you think "anti-pair"? Granted I think Hollowkatt is scummier than the day is long but that doesn't look like distancing to you? The first instinct is to defend. Then unlike the other two, concede that maybe Hollowkatt actually is a wolf.

Well, I encourage people to look at all the ladd posts I quoted above holistically and try to extract any patterns in how he discusses people. So for example in what you're responding to, Visor SRed:

Taffy
Dya
HK

Ladd rejected all of these.

He rejected Taffy SR because Taffy has attitude, pushes, furthers the game - "completely opposite" what Visor says.

He rejected dya SR because Visor's meta on dya is out of date (that's it).

He rejected HK SR because he's posting the same as in Visor's Sorc game ("but i concede he may be a wolf").

I can't tell you what it all means, but we can say he's wishy-washy on HK, hard-defending Taffy, and offering a very vague defense of dya.

[Montmorency]

Popping back in to say:

I am sorry for the irritation yesterday Pizza.

Knowing your role now you actually played it very well. Because the target self resolves and you end up clearing multiple people on a good day.

The wifom between me n Vul plus the subtle references that convinced me I was the shot. Very nice.

Tangentially, recall that ladd was repeatedly expressing anger at Pizza throughout D2 for the way he played his PR. Now we can say he was mad that the uncertainty between shooting ender and Vulgard (though I would say it was obv Vulgard) meant they couldn't NK the mech-clear townie. Again, seems like genuine anger, so yet more evidence for locking Ender town.

#Trusttheplan
Pizza always plays 3D chess.
.

@Askthepizzaguy