Motion Detect 15er #2 GAME THREAD

[Vulgard]

the duality of man

least flip-floppy thought process

[Boquise]

so we are solving today? Alright, I will write up my stuff after work

[Boquise]

Achro and Nutella trying to force pair me with Cape is screwing with my solve theory and it is annoying

[Boquise]

Interesting. We both have the same top two reads.

Interesting in a good way.

hm. hm hm hm.

the old mafia warriors of legends have told me that "interesting" is a wolf tell tbh

[Boquise]

This being ignored after the epic ate and inevitable feeling of doom y'all townies will feel is bad

This is mildly townie reaction tbh

[Boquise]

Why not boq in that group?

If you have all this just write it out

"Why not Boq" feels like the catchphrase of this game

I am basically Ike in South Park

[Vulgard]

so we are solving today? Alright, I will write up my stuff after work

well if everyone else is doing that then i guess i might as well present my takes

i think nutella is the most obvious villager today

i think her argument with dya isn't v/v though, i still think dya's a wolf and i think this arguing business is in their wolfrange

i think dya is just salty they're being sussed and is trying to make nutella viable tomorrow but that shouldn't be a thing

i didn't really want to say this because now they might kill nutella but that's my primary takeaway from this day phase so far

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the player i'm most confident is a wolf is not lapras, actually, but it's dya; other than what i said about dya yesterday, i think rask flipping v is an even worse look for them because it means that they were already setting up a side push ahead of rask flipping; this also happened on day 2 when wisdom was basically always dying, dya was trying to push me but there was no chance they would get me over and they didn't really seem to care to get me over, it was just a side push as a setup, i think a villager genuinely caring about their read here would actually try to get me killed instead of just pushing me but not really swaying anyone

they didn't even vote yesterday which i also think is nagl, it's unaligning with lapras to some extent because they would want to stack votes on rask if they were w/w in order to save lapras but i think the lack of a vote is wolfy either way and i can even see it still being w/w with lapras, it's possible wolves figured lapras wouldn't have died there i suppose or dya was just afk

i guess if dya could just be afk then it's nai but i do feel like they'd at least want to place a vote and have an opinion with said vote as a villa there whereas wolves likely wrote off that day as "ok we're killing rask" taking advantage of the md so that's why i think the lack of a vote is wolf-leaning regardless of anything

---

lapras does also feel like a wolf by gamestate to me

i have no further thoughts about him

---

boq/achro/syn/cape are the remaining players

i don't think achro/boq are together
i also don't think cape/boq are together, i think it's far more likely that cape's boq case on day 2 was a push on a villager than a bus

syn could be with virtually anyone and he's been pushing extremely wolfsided worldviews fmpov

i'm really struggling to visualize a team that doesn't contain at least one of dya and lapras, but if i do this thought exercise, then achro/syn/cape is the only feasible one i can think of

except achro/cape interactions are weirdly amicable for wolf partners, too obvious almost

i feel like if two of achro/syn/cape are wolves then we probably lose

gun-to-head i'd say the team is dya/lapras/syn but that doesn't feel exactly correct and it also feels like i'm just aiming for the most "obvious" targets rather than the actually correct targets

so i do think there's at least one wolf in achro/syn/cape and possibly two

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achro is ?probably? not with lapras? i think that post he wrote about lapras's pov @ boq is unlikely to have been written about a wolf partner

i also think that lapras randomly calling achro a wolf d1 would be pretty weird and random distancing though maybe i'm writing that off too easily

i think all three of them could be with dya unless i'm missing something

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i'm highest-confidence on dya being a wolf as a result of individual things they've done i've found wolfy + the fact i can't unpair them with anyone except nutella

lapras i can unpair with achro and nutella, i don't think nutella handles lapras the way she did last eod if they're partners

syn voting cape and then lapras there could actually be distancing, lapras wasn't dying at the point when syn placed that vote on him

i can't unpair anyone with syn, i had an unpair between him and ender but ender's dead now so that doesn't matter anymore

cape and achro both aren't with boq imo, boq could be with dya and with lapras though i'm pretty sure

achro also isn't with lapras imo and he ?probably? isn't with cape so the only teams that contain him are like achro/dya/syn or achro/dya/boq or achro/syn/boq but the boq pairing is also questionable to me because achro was helping me push boq on day 2 (i guess he could have been bussing there?)

i'm not even considering nutella worlds because i think she's blatantly a villager and if she's a wolf here she leveled up her game tremendously which i'm not going to catch at this moment

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i'm ending up with something like dya>syn>lapras>boq>cape>achro in terms of team compatibility

if achro is a wolf he either bussed or actively unaligned at some point

dya/syn/lapras seems too easy so it's probably a mixture of the two

so i'd say two in dya/syn/lapras and one in boq/cape/achro

[Vulgard]

if my reads are bad it's 2-3 in boq/cape/achro

[Vulgard]

lapras not being w would be wild but this game has gone horribly so i wouldn't even be that surprised if that was the case and i've simply had awful reads most of the game

lmk what you think

though of course thinking about this now means wolves will make different nk choices which is the drawback

[Achro]

Vul what was the origin point of your suspicion on dya? Does it boil down to the fact they pushed you? The origin I mean I am not saying that's the only thing you said above.

[Vulgard]

Vul what was the origin point of your suspicion on dya? Does it boil down to the fact they pushed you? The origin I mean I am not saying that's the only thing you said above.

at first i thought they weren't really playing the game, i've found that increasingly wolfy as the game progressed, then i looked back on their push on me in hindsight and took the context into consideration and there you have it

[Achro]

at first i thought they weren't really playing the game, i've found that increasingly wolfy as the game progressed, then i looked back on their push on me in hindsight and took the context into consideration and there you have it

Alright. And to be clear their repeated notes of wanting to play a relaxed game come off as insincere to you?

[dyachei]

i still think vulgard is a wolf

but I think we always go cape first because i don't have a team without cape in it

[dyachei]

lapras not being w would be wild but this game has gone horribly so i wouldn't even be that surprised if that was the case and i've simply had awful reads most of the game

lmk what you think

though of course thinking about this now means wolves will make different nk choices which is the drawback

"i've simply had awful reads most of the game"

continues to push me as a wolf

[dyachei]

like if you think all your reads this game have sucked, why are you sticking with the read you had on me from nearly the beginning of the game

[Vulgard]

Alright. And to be clear their repeated notes of wanting to play a relaxed game come off as insincere to you?

not really, i thought that was understandable

however i do think a villager playing a relaxed game would still play differently

"i've simply had awful reads most of the game"

continues to push me as a wolf

i said it was POSSIBLE that i had awful reads and i'm trying to consider a world where that's the case

yet here you're phrasing it as if i said my reads are definitely awful

it's not something i'm sure of

i think it's POSSIBLE

how can i ever consider you a villager when you keep doing this thing to my posts where you claim that i said something different from what i actually said and you post conclusions based on that misframing

[Vulgard]

like if you think all your reads this game have sucked, why are you sticking with the read you had on me from nearly the beginning of the game

i literally just explained how at the beginning of the game i didn't wolfread you at all and it has simply developed over the course of the game from looking at your actions in hindsight and at how the game progressed

[Vulgard]

i still think vulgard is a wolf

but I think we always go cape first because i don't have a team without cape in it

can you elaborate upon that?

[dyachei]

can you elaborate upon that?

yes

I think nutella's argument with me comes from her as a villager

I think boq is a villager (i've talked about this previously)

I think achro is a villager

i can see a world without you in it even though I think you're a wolf because I dont think you're with lapras

However, cape can be with almost anyone and as the game has gone on, he's been less involved

[Vulgard]

i said this earlier:

"syn voting cape and then lapras there could actually be distancing, lapras wasn't dying at the point when syn placed that vote on him"

what do you think about this

i genuinely think there's a chance this was w/w/w if you're town

[dyachei]

i said this earlier:

"syn voting cape and then lapras there could actually be distancing, lapras wasn't dying at the point when syn placed that vote on him"

what do you think about this

i genuinely think there's a chance this was w/w/w if you're town

sure I think it's possible I just don't know how likely

[Achro]

Ok it looks like dya and nut are on the same page for now. I can die content.

Although if the team is nut/dya I will be impressed tbh. The ultimate betrayal.

[Achro]

Will say lapras wanting to go first tomorrow is interesting. That vote should be telling.

[dyachei]

Will say lapras wanting to go first tomorrow is interesting. That vote should be telling.

who wants lapras first?

[Achro]

who wants lapras first?

I know nothing about vote orders I have only seen them briefly in champs. But lapras volunteered. Is that how it usually works?

[nebjiamn]

Vote Tally


Sleep 3 dyachei nutella lapras

Maj is 5, if maj is reached let me or sunbae know

[nutella]

@Lapras yes i do think you voting first is a good idea

[nutella]

I know nothing about vote orders I have only seen them briefly in champs. But lapras volunteered. Is that how it usually works?

he's basically the top suspect which is the standard

[nutella]

actually idk


maybe boq is now lol

[nutella]

@dyachei do you have specific thoughts on lapras and/or syn rn? vulgard's team theory and your focus on cape has me worried again