Capo di Tutti Capi III [Concluded]

[Jolt]

Well done ATPG, nicely seen through the inlines. Unvote, Vote: CountArach

[Kommodus]

Vote: GeneralHankerchief

I'll read the case against CountArach as soon as I can, but want to get this out there. GH is guilty and should be lynched as soon as possible.

I'm a townie and I've organized protection groups both nights. On N1 I sent out invitations to a number of players (not a huge number) in which, in addition to inviting them to join a group, I asked whether they thought it was better to include 3 or 4 players. I pointed out that, while a 4-player group is more reliable, it is also easier for a mafioso to hide in. A 3-player group has a greater chance of failure, but the failure can be informative concerning the true actions of the members.

GH was the only responding player to suggest a 4-player group on the first night. Now I want to say that this would make sense if we had a high-profile pro-town role to protect, but in the first few rounds it's probably better to use 3, since mafia infiltation is such a high risk.

My first protection group consisted of GH, Kagemusha and me. We protected The Stranger on GH's and my recommendation. All of us sent in our orders on time and CC'd each other. However, TS was killed regardless with nary a mention of any efforts to protect him. My N1 results from Seamus were as follows:

Protection effort failed; orders not coordinated

Clearly, one of us had not followed through with the agreed-upon plan.

I was already suspicious of GH for suggesting four players for our group, so I confronted him with my suspicions. He gave what I thought was a solid answer in the following exchange:

Just got the results from Seamus. His response indicates one of us is to blame.

This entire thing makes absolutely no sense. If we were mafia, why would any of us risk exposure like this on the very first day?

Well GH, maybe it's you. To me, the pieces seem to fit. You get invited into a protection group on the first day - how do you respond? You accept but suggest a four-player group, knowing that such a group is easier to hide in an a three-player group. (None of my other respondees suggested a four-player group this early in the game; others either had no opinion or thought three would be better until it became easier to predict attack victims.) It would've made a great alibi - but then you couldn't have known that TS would actually be attacked, since he was done in by an independent serial killer and not by any mafia family.

Do you have an answer before I make my suspicions public?

No, I didn't know that TS was going to be attacked. But I had a very good idea, for the reasons that I stated to you when I suggested that he be protected last night. Reasons that you agreed with and had others to add on to. It doesn't matter whether or not the mafia or an SK attacked him. An attack is an attack. And with at least six, probably seven clear "villainous" factions, probably not to mention a wiseguy group that's trying to do something, I knew the potential for SOMEONE going after him would be high.

I've grown pretty confident in my abilities to predict what's going to happen. For instance, I'm fairly certain that [CENSORED] is going to be attacked within the next couple of nights, because he fits the bill of an easy target. As did TS of being a N1 target. If I were mafia, I wouldn't risk my identity on suggesting a highly probable target and then agreeing to protect him with only three people (which I did, the "four" thing at the beginning was dropped I think after our first exchange).

K, it's not me.

So I held my peace and waited one night. But I was still highly suspicious of GH, for two reasons:

1. I knew all of us had sent in our orders correctly, so the only possibility was that either GH or Kage had changed their orders afterwards. Kage's behavior seemed more innocent to me.

2. The statement by GH in the above exchange: "This entire thing makes absolutely no sense. If we were mafia, why would any of us risk exposure like this on the very first day?" If GH were truly innocent, he should've been confidently pointing the finger at me and/or Kage. But instead he was on the defensive.

Now, having waited a night, I have very good information confirming GH's guilt. Unfortunately I can't reveal the details, but I am very confident. Friends, it is time to end this menace to our fair city.

[Tratorix]

Unvote: CountArach, Vote: GH I trust a mafia hunter's case more than a pizzaguy's.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Ahhh, now there two tl;dr posts each telling me to vote for different people!

[Splitpersonality]

Unvote:Sasaki


Vote:GH

Not to bandwaggon (I'm totally the third one aren't I?), but this seems good right now, if he has evidence I'd still like to see it however.

[Chaotix]

By solid evidence, are we talking an investigation result, here?

Otherwise, your word is only as good as his, and Kage could be the guilty one, too.

[Tratorix]

Ahhh, now there two tl;dr posts each telling me to vote for different people!

Welcome to mafia. Just wait GH and CA come along and have to rebut these accusations.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Welcome to mafia. Just wait GH and CA come along and have to rebut these accusations.

And people wonder why my posts have no substance...it's obviously to break up the walls of text in this thread.

[Kommodus]

Ok, I've now read the case against CountArach. It has some merit; perhaps he's guilty after all. But it has a serious flaw as well: over-reliance on evidence from the writeups. ATPG, with all due respect, here in Fatlington possession of a gun is not proof of mafia affiliation. It's not uncommon to be packing heat in self-defense, even for normal townies.

Also, CountArach's efforts to get Sasaki lynched are less scummy than you seem to think. Sasaki may not be much of a threat yet, but don't underestimate him. His basic nature prevents him from siding with the town in a Capo game; he practically must aim to become the Capo di Tutti Capi himself. No other outcome will satisfy him. I'm not saying lynch him yet - we have better, more dangerous candidates - but don't let him off the hook either.

By solid evidence, are we talking an investigation result, here?

Otherwise, your word is only as good as his, and Kage could be the guilty one, too.

I already said I can't reveal details. Asking isn't going to change that. I'm sorry, truly I am.

Without defending CountArach, I will say that I am more confident of GeneralHankerchief's guilt. I advise you all to switch your votes to him.

Also, Select: Reenk Roink

[TinCow]

I can confirm a good deal of what Kommodus says. I was a third (fourth?) wheel on his first night protection groups, which is why I ended up being spun off on my own. I knew that he and GH were due to protect TS. It was pretty clear that one of them was lying about the group after TS died. After extensive conversations with both Kommodus and Kage, they both seem legit to me. GH's responses were far less convincing:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Sorry... I need to shuffle the groups around a bit. I am protecting TS with GH and another player tonight.

Given that TS died without any sign of protection, I expect an explanation from the two of you.

I have no idea what the that was all about. I'm pretty certain Stranger got whacked by a serial killer, but naturally that doesn't explain everything. I need to check the Capo II roles to see if any of Seamus's SKs in that game were overpowered like that.

Language!! - Sigurd

Delayed response on this, I know, but any chance you'd be willing to share your results PM from N1?

Basically, it implicated one of us. Since we all CC'd the orders to each other on time, unintentional sabotage is out. Private conversations have not been pretty.

If you don't mind sharing, who is your prime suspect?

I'm going to keep that on the down-low for now. I'm getting a contact to look into it further.

GH

GH immediately went for the 'SK was able to blow through a protection' argument, which is not very believable. The first thought anyone would have would be that one of your partners was lying. GH did not react like that. Top it off with GH claiming to have a "contact," and I'd put my money on him being a Made/Luca.

Unvote; Vote: GeneralHankerchief

Too many scum, too few lynches.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Ok, I've now read the case against CountArach. It has some merit; perhaps he's guilty after all. But it has a serious flaw as well: over-reliance on evidence from the writeups. ATPG, with all due respect, here in Fatlington possession of a gun is not proof of mafia affiliation. It's not uncommon to be packing heat in self-defense, even for normal townies.

Yeah, much of that case was written before Seamus got back with the night results. I am afraid I had to rely on in-thread information instead of a result. And I wasn't sure I should post it at all unless I had the goods.

When I got the goods, I had it already ready to post, and briefly mentioned it before the in-thread clues in spoilers.

[atheotes]

Too many scum, too few lynches.

that is exactly the thought that crossed my mind

I have read through ATPG's theory - as a few people have pointed out, the gun theory sticks out a bit... Death is Yonder also had a gun.

I read Kommodus's case against and Tincow's supporting information...that is a much stronger case.

Vote: GH

I am looking forward to the rebuttals from GH and CA...

Select: Reenk

[A Very Super Market]

Yes, I'm a criminal.

[Double A]

HA! HE ADMITS IT!

[Diana Abnoba]

@ AVSM

Are you working with Moros?

[A Very Super Market]

Who's that?

[DJGingivitis]

Yes, I'm a criminal.

A smooth criminal?

[Diana Abnoba]

A smooth criminal?

I agree

[Diana Abnoba]

Who's that?

The other player that in thread was exposed as a criminal as well.

[Reenk Roink]

Screw what Kommodus says, lynch GH because he keeps trying to usurp my position.

[Tratorix]

Screw what Kommodus says, lynch GH because he keeps trying to usurp my position.

I trust you'll have a special surprise for him if we do? Oh and Select: Reenk.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Still waiting for your apology for hurting my feelings AVSM!

[Chaotix]

Sounds good enough to me. GH is probably mafia, while Sasaki is merely not mafia yet.

Unvote, Vote: GH

[A Very Super Market]

Thorry?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Thorry?

That does not compute under Dictionary.com.

[ricera10]

What does FoS (fossing?) mean? Google kept on trying to think it was "flossing", and I'm pretty sure you don't floss the teeth of people you are suspicious of.

...

On-topic, ATPG and Kommodus both make good points, but I think Kommodus substantiates his better. There's still too much doubt for me to vote, however.



I mean, GH could be a townie, but could just mistakenly be adding suspicion onto himself through his wording. But then again, I'm sure he has played many mafia games, so I doubt he would do something that would inadvertently add suspicion to himself. And even if he did that mistake, he would have made sure The_Stranger would have been protected in the first place, and that includes not making a mistake in sending the protection PM. As Kommodus said, it makes all of them suspicious, but I agree with Kommodus in his belief that GH's responses in the posted PM are the most suspicious.

In conclusion, this isn't an official "beyond reasonable doubt" belief, but I believe Kommodus makes a more concrete case about GH than ATPG about CountArach (CountArach is still rightly not absolved of suspicion), so...

Vote: GH

At least until something new presents itself; this needing to lynch anyone remotely suspect thing chafes me, but it's part of the game.

[Kommodus]

Question: If we create a tie vote, can the Director choose to lynch both players?

I've been talking to ATPG and he seems to have a pretty strong case for lynching CountArach... but I'd still like to see GeneralH lynched as well, as there is a lot of objective evidence against him. Lynching both would be my choice.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

HOS:ricera

How can you be that sure GH is guilty?

[Lord Winter]

@Pizza Your CA case relies on too many logical jumps and assumption to be considered as a lynch. First of all how would Yarpolk know about the coded language from the start? Codes are only useful if they are pre planed and if they were there would be no point using them as recruitment. Furthermore there's no actual evidence that they actual exist. When your whole case basically comes down to CA making a rp post which Yaropolk happens to make an anti stalin comment off of. Is that scummy? Furthermore why would CA want to tie himself to a mafia kill it would be suicide in the end game when everyone's scouring the thread for info. Also, why would Yaropolk contact factionheir if he was already tied into CA's familly? It's another unnecessary risk and we all know that mafiosos hate that. Overall the case has to many holes in it to be taken seriously when we have to sabotaged protection attempts to also look at.

First of all we shouldn't be looking at the killing group in the pever affair. There's no way a mafia family can sabotage that, thus all the woads and fangs votes are for nothing. What they can sabotage are the protection groups. We have too which apparently seem liked they failed. We should be looking at Andres, Beefy and Shiln as well as Kage, kommodus and GH.

I'd like to here GH's defense before I vote though.

@ricera FoS is finger of suspicion, it's used as a way to say someone is scummy without actually voting for them.

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

FOS: Finger of Suspicion

@ Jolt: You make a good case, Unvote: Jolt

With regards to the Count Arach case, I did read through it, but where is the evidence that he is definitely anti-town...

Kommodus' work on GH seems more solid at this stage. That The Stranger died, and was supposedly protected is patently obvious. That GH wanted to have larger groups is well-attested. These occurences would seem to be linked so...

Vote: General Hankerchief