The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[Subotan]

if only it were both........... oh wait!

The Guardian is a broadsheet newspaper, is it not?

[Furunculus]

but not a paper of note.

[Idaho]

but not a paper of note.

The Guardian is the worst British newspaper. With the exception of all the others.

[Furunculus]

we'll just have to disagree on that one.

[Subotan]

The Guardian is the worst British newspaper. With the exception of all the others.

QFT

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The Guardian is the worst British newspaper. With the exception of all the others.

Which one makes the best fish-wrap?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

And now some interesting predicitions/thoughts from 3 years past....

This is an interesting opinion piece for those of us interested in the struggle for power in Britain.

Gordon Brown seems to be fading from his position as heir apparent. I don't know any of my British friends who think he can win the next general election - and several are Labour voters. David Milliband seems to think no-one can win the next election for New Labour, and that the sensible thing to do would be to stay quiet until Brown gets humiliated by the electorate and he can step in as the new New Labourite in opposition.

Yet the columnist posits another possibility - that Blair regrets his decision and might be persuaded to stay on. There has been no popular acclaim for Brown and he's looking wounded - might the PM change his mind? If he did, could he win the next election? - despite his record, he is still a formidable campaigner, and the Tories really ought to be 20 points ahead given his woes.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Bruce Anderson: Gordon Brown's fortunes are ebbing away

Milburn and Clarke speak for many Labour MPs who are afraid that he will not click with the voters
Published: 05 March 2007

The Labour Party leadership race is a bullfight without a matador. The Brown bull is charging around the ring becoming angrier and angrier, as well he might, because every few minutes a banderillero rushes in, flings a dart at him and then runs away, too fast to be gored and eviscerated. We can be certain of one thing. If a challenger does appear, it will be a cracking contest. No bull has ever been so taunted and maddened.

Political parties which lose confidence in their leader or his heir presumptive have a difficulty. They cannot keep their worries to themselves. The confessional rapidly turns into a recording studio and the electorate listens in. Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn have been hoping to raise doubts about Gordon Brown without supplying the Tories with too much quotable material (Mr Clarke had already done that). But neither man is designed to be a tightrope walker. They can only celebrate their good fortune. Gordon Brown is not yet in charge of the safety net.

Disregard the talk of new visions for 2020. Trying to work out what Messrs Clarke and Milburn mean by policies is like trying to carry water in a sieve. But none of this is about policy. It is about personality: Gordon Brown's personality. Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn are speaking for a lot of Labour MPs who are afraid that Mr Brown will not click with the voters. He will clunk with them, and they will clunk back.

It is still probable that Gordon Brown will become PM. But one fear ought to be gnawing at his vitals. Where are his troops? Why have the airwaves not been inundated by Brownites, contemptuously dismissing the carpers while urging their fellow MPs to line the route for the coronation? Although David Miliband may be some way off commanding a majority of Labour MPs, he has the enthusiasts. The 50th Milibandite hopping for a chance to sign up to his campaign is far more motivated than the 50th Brownite muttering that he supposes it has to be Gordon. Last September's Brownite coup has turned into this March's collapsed soufflé.

David Miliband must feel flattered, and alarmed. Two months ago, I am told, he regarded a leadership bid as an amusing dream, which would instantly become a nightmare if he tried to turn it into reality. That was then, long before the recent polls. Although Mr Miliband is not at all arrogant, it cannot be easy to retain your humility when so many colleagues are pressing you to have a crack at the premiership.

Immediately after the Tory leadership contest in 1990, Douglas Hurd mused he had never really thought he could win. But a number of people whom he respected had urged him to stand. He decided that if he did not have a go, he would regret it later. If Mr Miliband did run, he would do a lot better than Douglas Hurd did. Then again, Gordon Brown would not emulate John Major's effortless generosity towards defeated rivals.

So what are they making of all this, next door in Number 10? At present, Tony Blair seems more interested in adding new American billionaires to his Rolodex. On one point, we can be certain. Amid all the talk of legacies and saving the planet, Mr Blair has one goal at the forefront of his plans. He is determined that after leaving Downing Street, he will make more money than any previous prime minister.

So he will, just as long as Scotland Yard does not inconvenience him. Then again, let us assume the PM does avoid serious embarrassment at the hands of Commander Yates. Tony Blair is young. There are reports that he regrets committing himself to leaving office. It cannot be long before some Labour MP goes public to beg him to reconsider.

One Labour backbencher made an interesting comment last week. He asked me what would have happened if Bill Clinton had been able to run again in 2000. I said that he would have won. If Al Gore came that close, Clinton would surely have done better. "Precisely,'' came the reply. "But we don't have term limits. So why are we swapping Clinton for Gore?''

I doubt if there is a way back for Mr Blair. The Labour MPs who regard him as an alien implant - GM Labour - are far more numerous than the ones who respect his election- winning record. But everything is unstable; everyone is uneasy. Outside the inner Brownite tribe, there seems to be little confidence. Where there is no way forward, the way back has its attractions.

It is hard to know what Gordon Brown could do to make himself an attraction. There is a Budget in two weeks' time. There is no money to spend. No doubt the Chancellor will be up to his usual game of re-announcing spending increases which he has announced several times already. These days, however, everyone is aware of the tricks. The commentators will rush to the small print to deconstruct the Budget, exposing the double and treble counting, the quadruple and quintuple announcing - plus, no doubt, the new stealth tax increases which Mr Brown somehow forgets to mention in his speech.

Yet the Budget will go less badly for him than the Scottish elections. Labour will suffer, and it will be impossible for Gordon Brown to disassociate himself from the defeat. Many English voters will conclude that if his fellow Scots do not believe in him, why should they?

Even so, there is still no matador in sight. But it is worth remembering that the bull never survives the bullfight.

If we overlook the fact that its Bruce Anderson and therefore automatically suspect.

Its clear, I think, that Brown as PM will deliver no better a result for labour at the polls than Blair. (I have to say I disagree that Blair is a particularly formidable campaigner, Clinton he ain't) In which case it must be credible that Blair will ask himself, well, why go? Especially as "the legacy" is non existent.

The only answer I can see is that we REALLY want Blair to go. The fact that we don't want the alternatives does not detract from the fact that we want Blair out. After all, no one was gagging to have John Major as PM in 1990, but we got him, and he went on to win a tricky election against a newly confident labour party.

Which was of course a huge disaster for the party.

That said Brown vs Cameron might not even be funny. Cameron is, after all, the Tory Blair (the second Tory Blair, to be accurate. I described Cameron as Blair Mk 2 to a friend of mine who is an old communist, and he remarked bitterly, yes, well its all right for you, at least you EXPECT to have a Tory as the leader of your party.)

Seriously, my wife says she would never vote for Brown because he is so grumpy. (Women, eh. 50% of the electorate too. ) She thinks Cameron is phoney but still prefers him.

I'm telling you, I think Posh is back.

Its becoming a bit of a hopeless situation for labour, Blair is hugely unpopular, and his own party won't let him stay on too much longer, even if he wanted too,

Brown is too much associated with Blair, and does'nt really come over all that well to a media-fed electorate, that said, i think he would be an improvement over Blair... It might be that he is not as good as Blair at poll-winning, but the knowledge that Blair is leaving might raise labour's support overall anyway...

Cameron is very similar to Blair, but its worth waiting until he actually announces some "substance" and policies before making that judgment, it may well be that he is more Tory than he makes out, and is attempting to take the centre ground in an attempt gain votes from the lib-dems and labour, through temporarily moderating his views...

I honestly think an in=party election for pm would be a disaster for labour, Brown would win, but the party would potentially fall apart.... no other Labour politician has the power, experience, or support to beat him, but could damage the apry image by trying...

If i was Conservative, i'd be wanting Blair to stay on for as long as possible, because as long as he is around they are loosing popularity...

Interesting in light of recent events, no?

[Louis VI the Fat]

There's another, entirely selfish reason for a Tory vote, and that is the inheritance tax reduction. It's horribly unjust, but I am liable for enormous amounts of inheritance tax and any reduction will be welcome.

Now that's an excellent reason to vote Conservatives.


So good, in fact, it makes me wonder why the other sixty million minus 3000 Britons would vote Conservative too.

[tibilicus]

The polls today show a slight shift back to the Conservatives. If the electorate does get a wobbly about the lib dems though expect a pretty significant shift of support back to the Tories. I think the threshold for a Conservative majority, all be it very small majority, is roughly 39%. That means that as things stand, we're still on our way to a hung parliament.I wouldn't be to surprised if we see a break for the Tories though. I don't know why but I just have a feeling that it might happen. I can't also see the lib dems polling anything above 30%. If they get 28% it will still be a massive achievement and I for one will certainly be shocked if they manage it. I can't also comprehend why the Labour vote is still holding. In all honesty I can't see why any ones planning to vote for them. If your a progressive left winger the lib dems are certainly the more progressive of the two and I certainly can't see why you would vote for labour on the basis of it's personalities. If anything this election has shown the true extent to which New Labour is all spin spin spin. Gordon can't even handle ordinary people because he's been shielded by the spin doctors for so long.

Also interestingly, will Furunculus be right with his prediction of a small Conservative majority?He's the only one who predicted it and to me at least, it's defiantly still in the equation for a likely outcome.

Anyway, here's the polls.

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

[InsaneApache]

Yep. After the dissin of a pensioner and the ejaculating of a heckler at another of Browns 'meet the real people' rallies (what a patronising )

I've had a change of heart.

Tory minority gov.

So lib-dems on board, as and when.

Labour, lost deposits all around. (OK that's just a wet dream )

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The polls today show a slight shift back to the Conservatives. If the electorate does get a wobbly about the lib dems though expect a pretty significant shift of support back to the Tories. I think the threshold for a Conservative majority, all be it very small majority, is roughly 39%. That means that as things stand, we're still on our way to a hung parliament.I wouldn't be to surprised if we see a break for the Tories though. I don't know why but I just have a feeling that it might happen. I can't also see the lib dems polling anything above 30%. If they get 28% it will still be a massive achievement and I for one will certainly be shocked if they manage it. I can't also comprehend why the Labour vote is still holding. In all honesty I can't see why any ones planning to vote for them. If your a progressive left winger the lib dems are certainly the more progressive of the two and I certainly can't see why you would vote for labour on the basis of it's personalities. If anything this election has shown the true extent to which New Labour is all spin spin spin. Gordon can't even handle ordinary people because he's been shielded by the spin doctors for so long.

Also interestingly, will Furunculus be right with his prediction of a small Conservative majority?He's the only one who predicted it and to me at least, it's defiantly still in the equation for a likely outcome.

Anyway, here's the polls.

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

The guy on the next desk over from me still thinks Brown has the most "experience" to fix the economy, and that he can be "trusted" to do it. When I pointed out that it was Brown who created the problem his response was, "yeah, but it would have happened anyway".

You need a more than casual interest in ploitics to see that, ignoring Labour completely, this one man has made more mistakes than not.

[InsaneApache]

I live in a labour stronghold. Summat like 8000+. I've not met anybody, and I mean anyone who has said that they will vote Labour. 'Round here it's either Lib-Dems or BNP.

Like I keep on saying...

New Labour. New Britain.

[Louis VI the Fat]

New Britain. New Republicans Conservatives.

A high-flying prospective Conservative MP, credited with shaping many of the party's social policies, founded a church that tried to "cure" homosexuals by driving out their "demons" through prayer.


Philippa Stroud, who is likely to win the Sutton and Cheam seat on Thursday and is head of the Centre for Social Justice, the thinktank set up by the former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, has heavily influenced David Cameron's beliefs on subjects such as the family. A popular and energetic Tory, she is seen as one of the party's rising stars.

The CSJ reportedly claims to have formulated as many as 70 of the party's policies. Stroud has spoken of how her Christian faith has motivated her to help the poor and of her time spent working with the destitute in Hong Kong. On her return to Britain, in 1989, she founded a church and night shelter in Bedford, the King's Arms Project,

Stroud wrote a book, God's Heart for the Poor, in which she explains how to deal with people showing signs of "demonic activity".

"This reinforces our long-held suspicions that those out of sight, but with their hands on the levers of power, have deeply reactionary ambitions," said Keith Porteous Wood, executive director of the National Secular Society.Ben Summerskill, chief executive of the Stonewall group, said: "If Mrs Stroud has been praying to rid Britain of its homosexuality, she clearly hasn't been praying hard enough. It would be highly regrettable if someone who continued to hold these views held any significant office in government."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...troud-gay-cure

[InsaneApache]

nm.

I'm drubk/

[Furunculus]

The polls today show a slight shift back to the Conservatives. If the electorate does get a wobbly about the lib dems though expect a pretty significant shift of support back to the Tories. I think the threshold for a Conservative majority, all be it very small majority, is roughly 39%. That means that as things stand, we're still on our way to a hung parliament.I wouldn't be to surprised if we see a break for the Tories though. I don't know why but I just have a feeling that it might happen. I can't also see the lib dems polling anything above 30%. If they get 28% it will still be a massive achievement and I for one will certainly be shocked if they manage it. I can't also comprehend why the Labour vote is still holding. In all honesty I can't see why any ones planning to vote for them. If your a progressive left winger the lib dems are certainly the more progressive of the two and I certainly can't see why you would vote for labour on the basis of it's personalities. If anything this election has shown the true extent to which New Labour is all spin spin spin. Gordon can't even handle ordinary people because he's been shielded by the spin doctors for so long.

Also interestingly, will Furunculus be right with his prediction of a small Conservative majority?He's the only one who predicted it and to me at least, it's defiantly still in the equation for a likely outcome.

Anyway, here's the polls.

YouGov/Sunday Times (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)
ComRes/S.Mirror/S.Indy (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)
ICM/Sunday Telegraph (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)
BPIX/Mail on Sunday (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)
Angus Reid/Sunday Express (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

still time to amend your vote...........?

i am away from home atm, so i will update the sweeps tomorrow.

i have seen a blizzard of blue posters when travelling through mid and south wales (surprising) and the same in southern england (not surprising).

[Banquo's Ghost]

Now that's an excellent reason to vote Conservatives.


So good, in fact, it makes me wonder why the other sixty million minus 3000 Britons would vote Conservative too.

In the absence of any political ideologies, each votes for personal gain. If the Tories win, I expect it will be because more people judge that they will improve their own situation. Idealism needs ideals.

[CountArach]

Edit: I don't know why Angus Reid is showing Labour that low. I can't see that as being entirely accurate. In reality Labour support is probably around 28%. Although also notice the lib dem support beginning to drop.

Angus Reid don't weight by party preference, unlike most other polling companies.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Quite extraordinary. Peter Hitchens, in the Mail on Sunday, tells conservative voters not to vote for David Cameron.

He is truly what he once said he was – the Heir to Blair.

If he wins, he will – as the first Tory leader to win an Election in 18 years – have the power to crush all his critics in the Tory Party.

He will be able to say that political correctness, green zealotry, a pro-EU position and a willingness to spend as much as Labour on the NHS have won the day.

He will claim (falsely) that ‘Right-wing’ policies lost the last three Elections.

Those Tory MPs who agree with you and me will be cowed and silenced for good. The power will lie with the A-list smart set, modish, rich metropolitan liberals hungry for office at all costs who would have been (and who in the case of one of the older ones actually was) in New Labour 13 years ago.

And then where will you have to turn for help as the PC, pro-EU bulldozer trundles across our landscape destroying what is good and familiar and replacing it with a country whose inhabi tants increasingly cannot recognise it as their own?

Call-me-Dave must be wide-eyed with shock. It's not easy to fault Hitchen's arguments, save the claim about Cameron's power. With even the best he can hope for being a tiny majority, the Tory party will revert to internecine warfare within a year - as soon as the French come up with sneaky Euro-proposal about fruit. Or Greece. Or Greek fruit.

[Furunculus]

if we get pr then the progressive vote is knackered, as is the tory party.

the trditional labour working class will vote in fifty plus bnp votes, and a similar number of tory seats will become ukip.

however it is a more of a problem for the left as the progressives vote won't align with the bnp for obvious reasons, whereas the the tories won't have any problems allying with ukip.

[Fragony]

nvm

[Banquo's Ghost]

This is rather an amusing questionnaire for those who might be undecided. It accurately reports my predilection towards being a barely convinced Tory (although in the extra questions, my disagreement with the Iraq war immediately turns me over to being a LibDem).

[InsaneApache]

UK Independence Party:

36%
Liberal Democrats:

34%
Conservative Party:

34%

:p

[Tellos Athenaios]

Lots of odd questions. “The administration costs of the NHS should be reduced by one third”. Agree/Disagree. Yes, and what are the consequences of that, eh?

Anyway I am apparently a Liberal Democrat by 80%, Green by 56%, UKIP 52%, Labour 36%, BNP 25%, Conservative 25%. After extra questions BNP and Conservative swapped; and mysteriously my alignment with each party increased by at least 1%.

[Banquo's Ghost]

UK Independence Party:

36%
Liberal Democrats:

34%
Conservative Party:

34%

:p

If I may say so, you appear awfully well hung.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

As parliaments go, you understand.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Scottish National Party: 56%
Liberal Democrats: 48%
Scottish Green Party: 45%
Labour Party: 44%
Conservative Party: 34%
UK Independence Party: 34%
British National Party: 32%

Odd, I had issues with many of the questions, yet the end result seems fairly accurate. Lib Dem on top, followed by Labour and at a long distance Conservative. Green issues rank high, UKIP and BNP at the bottom.

Even though I'm Sco'ish myself, I wouldn't seriously contemplate voting SNP.

[Beskar]

Odd, I had issues with many of the questions, yet the end result seems fairly accurate. Lib Dem on top, followed by Labour and at a long distance Conservative. Green issues rank high, UKIP and BNP at the bottom.

Even though I'm Sco'ish myself, I wouldn't seriously contemplate voting SNP.

You are French, not Scottish, you silly sausage.

However, for the questions, everytime I take the test, they have added or removed questions, which I find interesting. However, on some questions, I have to stick "Open-Minded" as in either "It depends on the situation" or "I would like something similiar, but not that".

For example, the question about Home-owners being free from prosecution. It is a case of "I agree with it, except for extreme cases outside of fair-action". If you look at the summary of the answers, Lib-dems for example say the same as me, but have "disagree" box selected. So half the things you select, have to involve the extreme-case scenario, which is stupid.

Oh and:

Liberal Democrats: 88%
Green Party: 55%
Labour Party: 48%
UK Independence Party: 37%
Conservative Party: 26%

Hence why I would never vote Tory.

My local area will be electing a Green MP by the looks of it anyway.


Edit: I did some research, the government scrapped Regional Government because of the North East problem, so they just scrapped them all this year except London's. What morons.

[Idaho]

Now that's an excellent reason to vote Conservatives.


So good, in fact, it makes me wonder why the other sixty million minus 3000 Britons would vote Conservative too.

Well quite

if we get pr then the progressive vote is knackered, as is the tory party.

the trditional labour working class will vote in fifty plus bnp votes, and a similar number of tory seats will become ukip.

The Conservative Party are basically careerist politicians who ride on the agenda of ukip/bnp whilst effectively serving themselves and their mates in big business.

[Beskar]

That reminds me, I already voted (Lib-dem, obviously).

[Strike For The South]

What a fascinating little country.

On a sidenote how come the Scots get a parliment and the English don't?

[Beskar]

What a fascinating little country.

On a sidenote how come the Scots get a parliment and the English don't?

English were meant to get regional assemblies, which were retracted last second, except for London's. It is a process which hasn't been finished yet.

Also, an English Parliament would be a very bad idea. There is a North/South English divide for example, which means the North would suffer greatly, because the South has London. This is an issue as their policies would increase wealth/prosperity the South, in exchange for greatly reducing the North.

I have no problems with Regional, as it means those Londoners can keep their policies there and out of here.