The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[tibilicus]

Put me down for a prediction of a Conservative minority government. Polls of the marginal seats which are Lab/Con show roughly a 7% swing to the Conservatives. Whilst the polling of the marginals suggests the Conservatives will win few, if any Lib/Con marginals, I still feel the Tories are in a strong position. I say this because I probably imagine that in three way marginals, an increase in lib dem support and a drop in Labour support essentially collapses the progressive vote between the lib dems and Labour.