The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[Louis VI the Fat]

Final prediction from me:

Cons 325
Lab 200
Lib 90

Cons 285
Lab 255
LibDem 85
Furthermore, I also predict the remaining parties will take all remaining seats.

Thank you, Furunculus, for keeping track of our predicitions. Good fun.

BNP candidate batters Asians

Disgusting, both groups of men. Off to gaol with the lot of them.

[Furunculus]

Furthermore, I also predict the remaining parties will take all remaining seats.

Thank you, Furunculus, for keeping track of our predicitions. Good fun.

A very astute observation! :p

My pleasure

[Furunculus]

just louis and I with final day predictions so far, anyone else going to join in with seat predictions for the big three?

[Furunculus]

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

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JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (06/05/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2483692

Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341
Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480544

CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

Louis (06/05/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2483786

Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070
Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

Tbilicus (05/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2482362

Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

Insane Apache (02/05/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2481378

Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

Subotan (30/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480536

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Furunculus = Cons 325 / Lab 200 / Lib 90
Louis = Cons 285 / Lab 255 / Lib 85

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and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

[edit]
voting closes at 7:00pm today, make your changes asap.
[/edit]

[Louis VI the Fat]

Final prediction from me:

Cons 325
Lab 200
Lib 90

Cons 285
Lab 255
LibDem 85

Actual result: Cons 306
Lab 258
LibDem 57


Seats wrongly predicted:
Cons: Fur 19, LVI 21
Lab: Fur 58, LVI 3
LibDem: Fur 33, LVI 28


Total misses:
Furunculus 110, Louis 52.

[Furunculus]

Actual result: Cons 306
Lab 258
LibDem 57


Seats wrongly predicted:
Cons: Fur 19, LVI 21
Lab: Fur 58, LVI 3
LibDem: Fur 33, LVI 28


Total misses:
Furunculus 110, Louis 52.

my congratulations Louis, you win this time.......................... *shakes fist*

All this nonse about demanding representation for your region/city/street/backyard is, well... just that, nonsense. A strong local government is much more useful than populist demands for autonomy for arbitrary regions just because people got upset that their party of choice isn't sitting in Westminster.

Ugh... that is a major issue here, with people talking about a boost for independence of the Tories win. *gah*

agreed here, we really do not want or need a third tier of government, give me Daniel Hannan's The Plan.

[Furunculus]

a. We are taklking about Trident, or a nuclear deterent. Not all those points above are dependent on the UK possessing one.

b. Australia, for example, maximises it's contribution in "coalitions of the willing" by focusing on its comparative advantage in a composite force. Perhaps the UK's capability could better complement the US' in this way than as a mini me?

c. AFAIK our options internationaly are either to stick our heads int he sand as France did until Sarkozy, or continue to play patsy to whoever sits in the Oval office.

a. no, but it is a mistake only to see the deterrent as a military tool, rightly or wrongly it reinforces our SC position which is a political advantage.

b. all marvellous, but australia is not a Great Power and is unable to conduct strategic power projection, and thus it does not command influence at an international level, most obviously at the SC. the whole point of the SDR 98 was to be a plug-in adjunct to american forces, our literal aim was to match the quality 100% and the quantity by 15% so that we could demand the second in command position, and thus strategic input into the operation.

the problem of not being taken seriously is adequately described here:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...688424,00.html

Since the United Nations had issued a mandate for Afghanistan, Germany took part in the mission, which was intended to secure the country’s reconstruction, with a clear conscience.

Now war has broken out again and the Germans are playing a peripheral role in the conflict. They are not consulted by the US when the strategy changes. They are presented with a fait accompli because they don’t carry political weight, neither in the confrontation with Afghan President Hamid Karzai nor in negotiations with the Taliban. That is rather meager for a country that would like to see itself as an important mid-sized power.

The distant war has come home to Germany, and, after the period of fleeing from reality, it is now high time that Germans talk openly about war and death.

c. no, our options are perfectly crystallised by the five doctrines in the RUSI paper linked in my sig:

RUSI commissioned a report to ask two questions:

1. Is it still desirable and appropriate for the UK to wish to act as a Great Power?

2. If it is desirable to remain a Great Power, how can this be achieved?

Question #1 was satisfactorily answered with the following motives:

a) Thucydides wisdom – all nations seek power for reasons of fear, interest and honour

b) The Strategic Bargain – where we work with partners to ensure collective security

c) National Obligations – Uninterrupted access to economic recourse & Defence of the Realm

d) Military Aid to Civilian Authorities – a resource to resort to in times of natural disaster

Question #2 looked at the various options that can be taken in light of the failure of the SDR vision, and in recognition of the current financial situation which makes the SDR an unachievable dream.

a) The Global Guardian Doctrine – i.e. we maintain our ability to mount large scale theatre level operations out-of-area, examples of which would be Desert Storm and Afghanistan, including protracted COIN operations.

This is a Great Power Status

It meets motives a, b, part of c and d.

b) The Strategic Raiding Doctrine – i.e. we maintain our ability to mount medium scale assaults via amphibious/naval capability in conjunction with rapid-reaction/expeditionary forces, examples of which would be the Falklands Conflict and Sierra Leone.

This is a Great Power Status

It meets motives a, b, c, and d.

c) The Contributory Doctrine - i.e. we maintain a reduced military that whilst broadly capable, and able to contribute usefully to international operations, would lose any possibility for national autonomy for intervention operations, because we would be dependent on other nations for the capabilities it had surrendered. We would be in a similar position to Germany or Poland; able to provide brigade level combat units or specialist functions to multinational operations.

This is NOT a Great Power Status

It meets motives b and d, as well as part of c.

d) The Gendarmerie Doctrine - i.e. we lose all ambition to high intensity warfare outside of our own national borders, and capable only of providing light weight peace-keeping forces for multinational operations. We would be in a similar position to Belgium or Denmark.

This is NOT a Great Power Status

It meets motives d, as well as part of c.

e) The Little Britain Doctrine – We abandon all but home defence, we would remain in a similar position to Ireland.

This is NOT a Great Power Status

It meets motive d.