The French Presidential contest

[Banquo's Ghost]

I wonder if some of our Gallic friends would be so kind as to give a view on the presidential election now that we are only two months out?

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be?

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time - but I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated. Mind you, that's been said before.

I can't believe that Sarkozy has it all wrapped up already, despite Royal's pratfalls (which I think elicit some fairly serious concerns about her competence). But reading about what's going on doesn't seem to give me a satisfactory insight into what is really going on over there - and my French friends are no help, being pretty determined in their existing views.

Just to show I'm a good European, I'll trade you insights into the forthcoming Irish elections - good for overcoming insomnia and as an emetic.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?
She survived J'ai une question à vous poser. That I would call it 'survive' says a lot about her position. She peaked too early, got all that hype surrounding her last autumn, only for people to realise that she didn't have a program or anything, just her looks, freshness and femininity. (lots of it though )
In place of a solid program, she said she would 'listen' to the people. Meh.

Then when she finally came up with a program last month, it consisted of 100 points. Well meh again. She is trying too hard to please everybody, ending up pleasing nobody in particular. She can't even rally her own base like this.

Then there were all these blunders lately.
China has a 'fast' judiciary system, Israel's occupation of Palestine is akin to the nazi occupation of France, she doesn't realise the difference between civil and military nuclear power. The one blunder I actually liked of her was her not having a clue about how many nuclear subs France has. Finally, maybe we'll get a president who's not obsessed with the more phallic symbols of the Republic.

I'm struggling with voting for a woman just to get a woman on top for change. I would desperatly love to see a female president. But I couldn't seriously vote for someone based solely on his or her gender. Or maybe I just might. Don't know yet.

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be?
Le petit Nicolas is always under pressure and never intimidated by it. The clever bastard is currently keeping a somewhat low profile and is waiting for Ségo's campaign to implode.

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time
But..but..there is no traditional left anymore. They're confused, tiny and passé. :wavesgoodby:

I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated.
A dark horse? The next president of the Republic you mean.

Okay, I'm afraid not.

I'll vote François Bayrou in the first round. For support and to hopefully get him in second place. If he doesn't make it, I'll let my mood decide between Ségo and Sarko. If I'm in a good mood and the sun is shining, it's Ségo. Else it's Sarko.

[Brenus]

Mme Royal had her television presentation last night, and from what I understand from the papers, had a solid but not earth-shaking performance. Since the preceding month seems to have been one of unmitigated disaster for her, is she now sunk?I didn’t watch it, if it was on TV5, I don’t know. However, her campaign lack of muscles. She was not help by the journalists reporting her small gaffes and ignoring Sarkosy’s one very carefully, like the one when he regretted France didn’t participated in Iraq’s war at the same moment when the USA started to regret it…

Nicolas Sarkozy seems simply to be watching her campaign implode, but is this the case? Has he been put under pressure yet - and will he be? Do not underestimate her. She arrived at this level of politic because she is ambitious, cunning and without mercy…
Sarkozy aswell is a taff opponent, but things can change in election, fast. We’ve got the experience of Balladur: every political commentators gave him as the future president and he didn’t reach the second tour…. Same story with Jospin and the unexpected appearance of Le Pen from the Extreme Right on the scene…

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time - but I do read that Francois Bayrou may be more of a dark horse than anticipated. Mind you, that's been said before.
Well, as a old lefty, I have difficulty to believe in this Left-Caviar… I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou (even if I like what he is saying. The only problem is I remember with who he voted in the Assemblée,..).
I will perhaps abstain… Both candidates have roughly the same agenda; Sarkozy is more honest about it in his intentions to rip-off the French from what theirs parents and grand-parents built and to sell it to his friends…
The campaign is about communications and glamour… I want Victor Hugo, Blum, Clemenceau… I want ideals, ideas, I want to feel that they believe in what they are saying, and not to have this feeling like when some guys/gels knock on your door to sell the last Encyclopaedia Universalis…

I can't believe that Sarkozy has it all wrapped up already, despite Royal's pratfalls (which I think elicit some fairly serious concerns about her competence).Don’t worry, his own camp (actually, Chirac hate him and will do what he can to make him fall in the dust)… And some figures start to arrive to the public attention about the money companies and big fellows forget to pay to the fisc (taxes) in complete contradiction of Sarkozy’s speech…

French elections are without mercy and are not play ground for amators…

[Louis VI the Fat]

She was not helped by the journalists reporting her small gaffes and ignoring Sarkosy’s one very carefully, like the one when he regretted France didn’t participated in Iraq’s war at the same moment when the USA started to regret it…

A gaffe? Which gaffe? It gained him support as well.
'Mon attachement à la relation avec les Etats-Unis est connu. Il me vaut bien des critiques en France, mais, j'en suis fier et je la revendique'.

Do not underestimate her. She arrived at this level of politic because she is ambitious, cunning and without mercy…

Well she is an énarque, eh? It comes with the territory. She even was in the same class as De Villepin and François Hollande. I'm sick and tired of them, the lot.
Bayrou didn't go to l'ENA, he studied at Bordeaux.

Don't know where Sarko studied. He was probably killing small animals at that age.

I find it difficult to believe the left will abandon Mme Royal or commit the mistake of last time

Well, as a old lefty, I have difficulty to believe in this Left-Caviar… I won’t vote for Sarkozy or Bayrou (even if I like what he is saying. The only problem is I remember with who he voted in the Assemblée,..).
I will perhaps abstain… Both candidates have roughly the same agenda

Wait, so you mean that you lefties will in fact commit the same mistake as last time? Abstaining, protest-voting or elsewise fragmentising your vote?

Sarkozy is more honest about it in his intentions to rip-off the French from what theirs parents and grand-parents built and to sell it to his friends…
The campaign is about communications and glamour… I want Victor Hugo, Blum, Clemenceau… I want ideals, ideas, I want to feel that they believe in what they are saying, and not to have this feeling like when some guys/gels knock on your door to sell the last Encyclopaedia Universalis…

And what if they come knocking at your door selling Kärchers?

At least with Sarko you know what he's about. And he does have ideas: liberalism and lots of it. We don't need a soft Ségo Zapatera, we need Nicolas Blairzy.

[Geoffrey S]

Sarkozy seems to be the Putin of France: power-hungry, ruthless, well-established, and thoroughly competent. Whether that's your cup of tea is another matter, but I think France can get a whole lot worse than him.

[Pindar]

I'm struggling with voting for a woman just to get a woman on top for change. I would desperatly love to see a female president. But I couldn't seriously vote for someone based solely on his or her gender. Or maybe I just might. Don't know yet.

Could you explain this? Why is gender relevant? You survivors of Fatlington are a curious bunch.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Could you explain this? Why is gender relevant? You survivors of Fatlington are a curious bunch.

Relevant to me is that gender should be irrelevant for a presidency.

This is clearly not the case yet. Like America, but unlike Germany or the UK, there hasn't been a female president yet. There has been a female prime minister, but that office is not comparable to the one in for example the UK. France is also that little bit more 'Latin', or macho, than these three examples.

I would like a woman in the highest office as a sort of affirmative action. This is what I'm struggling with: gender-irrelevancy and voting for a woman because of her gender are incompatible. Yet, it would help to draw my ideal of irrelevancy closer.

I think. Maybe female candidates popping up everywhere -Clinton, Merkel, Royal- means that it was all just a matter of time before they had equal opportunity to become presidents. And that this time has already arrived. Counting back to the late sixties or early seventies, when the first young women grew up with the ideals and career prospects of the women's movement, we should indeed see women by now who've had the careers that make them eligable for a presidency. If this is the case, then I'll just need to wait until one that suits my political preferences comes forward.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

This is clearly not the case yet. Like America, but unlike Germany or the UK, there hasn't been a female president yet.

Germany has never had a female president. We have a female chancellor, which, as I'm sure you are well aware of, is something different in Germany.

[Pindar]

Relevant to me is that gender should be irrelevant for a presidency...I would like a woman in the highest office as a sort of affirmative action. This is what I'm struggling with: gender-irrelevancy and voting for a woman because of her gender are incompatible.

So you struggle with embracing a discriminatory stance and yet think such an embrasure may move you closer to ending a discrimination? Symbolism trumps merit? God save the French!

Would Marianne be pleased? Would this mean Royal would have to be bare brested all the time or only when charging into battle?

[Louis VI the Fat]

Symbolism trumps merit? God save the French!

One's strengths are one's weaknesses.

Would this mean Royal would have to be bare brested all the time

Yes. She can never be the incarnation of the Republic with her clothes on. But how to tell her?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Well, it's close...





From last year. She's 53 her, the mother of four, and quite hot for her age.