Future of the European Union

[Fragony]

Wow Paris, I suspect that there many antifacsts(lol) there doing the wreckage that's what they do whenever they can, in Germany the hunt on immigrants was also a fluke

[Husar]

Yes, since the right is cheering on a movement that suddenly turned violent in a way the right doesn't like, it has to be infiltrated by the antifa.
Who would've thought that a movement against higher prices could have lefitst elements in it?

[Furunculus]

surely this is at least somewhat interesting?

So, dodging the usual virtue-signalling slogans of eu debate, what do people think of the New Hanseatic League?

Fundamentally, a response to brexit and the loss of the super-sized advocate for a market-liberal driven EU.

Oddly bisecting the usual Franco-German divide of rule of:

1. One is a German driven Europe of rules. It will be business oriented, and Greece will come to be the template of a ‘wide’ Europe with no sense of common solidarity. This fractious stasis will nevertheless require us to integrate to fight for oxygen in a low adaptability / low growth bloc. Member nations might eventually come to engineer out some of the imperfections of Maastricht and Lisbon, but it will be an antagonistic and inward looking bloc.

2. The second is the French/Italian European people. It will result from peripheral Eurozone members choosing to leave monetary union, and accession states simply refusing to join. In doing this, the six founding members will recognise the common solidarity necessary to legitimise a transfer union at the core of Europe. A core able to integrate, a periphery happy to cooperate, this EU would be able to focus on more than zero-sum maneuvering.

In seeking an EU of rules but with some of the elements of solidarity necessary to make the Euro work:

https://spectator.clingendael.org/en...-not-be-enough

Does this fit YOUR vision of how the EU should evolve?

[Fragony]

Yes, since the right is cheering on a movement that suddenly turned violent in a way the right doesn't like, it has to be infiltrated by the antifa.
Who would've thought that a movement against higher prices could have lefitst elements in it?

That turned out to be fake-news, they used years old imagery of a neo-nazi march to make peaceful protest of normal people look bad. Not classy at all

As for Paris, I suspect it, we will see, it's a common tactic

[Husar]

As for Paris, I suspect it, we will see, it's a common tactic

Of course it's a common tactic, just like the common tactic of right wingers pretending to be antifa because leftist treehuggers would never be aggressive.
It's basically a false flag operation disguised as a false flag operation, it's so obvious.

[Fragony]

Of course it's a common tactic, just like the common tactic of right wingers pretending to be antifa because leftist treehuggers would never be aggressive.
It's basically a false flag operation disguised as a false flag operation, it's so obvious.

Never heard of such a thing. Right wing/Left wing blabla, I don't like any of them.

[Montmorency]

I just learned that in response to the refugee crisis Hungary has passed a law that permits warrantless search of homes that are suspected of harboring refugees.

2. Hungary’s “Emergency” Legislation. — The Syrian refugee crisis, which had been ongoing for several years as a result of the protracted civil war in that country, first affected Europe in a significant way during the summer and early fall months of 2015. Hungary, with its strategic position on the eastern frontier of Europe, was one of the countries most heavily affected by the dramatic influx of new arrivals in the early stages of the crisis. Unique among European countries, however, Hungary pursued extraordinarily aggressive emergency measures to prevent new arrivals practically at the outset of the crisis.

The first stage of Hungary’s response involved the construction of a fence around portions of its border. The Hungarian Parliament enacted legislative measures aimed at further deterring refugee arrivals as the second stage of its response. These measures included a raft of different provisions aimed at arriving refugees, including draconian punishments for damaging the newly erected border fence and for entering the country at nondesignated areas. The law also allowed for declaration of a state of emergency in perpetuity under certain conditions.

The legislative measures were not aimed solely at foreign arrivals: An element of the law would also focus on domestic citizens. Specifically, the law gave police the power to search the homes of Hungarian citizens suspected of harboring refugees without a warrant. As initially drafted, the law granted this power explicitly, but this provision was eventually removed after it threatened legislative support for the measure as a whole. However, as pointed out during floor debate, this did not in fact change the nature of the powers police would be granted: Because the law criminalized unauthorized refugee entries and presence, police who suspected a household of harboring refugees could still enter without a warrant.

Cool cool cool cool cool. Definitely sounds like something no one would dream of proposing in the States, right?

*nervously waves Nazismus wand*

[Furunculus]

for interest:

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-c...Report-web.pdf

[Pannonian]

for interest:

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-c...Report-web.pdf

Who is the Global Britain Programme (the author)?

The Global Britain Programme is a research programme within the Henry Jackson Society.

Who is the Henry Jackson Society?

The Henry Jackson Society is a neoconservative British foreign policy think tank.

I didn't even know that neoconservatism was still a going concern these days. Apparently there are still fans.

[Furunculus]

Rofl, did you forget to add the tag "neoliberal" to the rest of the invective directed at the euthor?

Play the ball, not the man.

As an aside, James Rogers begun his career as an EU foreign policy analyst.

[Pannonian]

Rofl, did you forget to add the tag "neoliberal" to the rest of the invective directed at the euthor?

Play the ball, not the man.

As an aside, James Rogers begun his career as an EU foreign policy analyst.

That was the strategy of Leave. Throw enough lies around, and if Remain stick to playing the ball, there is never enough time to refute all the lies (many of which, like the 350m for the NHS promise, have some kind of weaselly loophole to excuse the liars), which means enough of them circulate. I haven't said neoliberal because I was just quoting what the wiki article said, and neoconservative is the description they use. In case people have forgotten what neoconservatism is, look up Project For a New American Century, the think tank that sent the US and UK into Iraq.

[Furunculus]

That was the strategy of Leave. Throw enough lies around....(some further guff)

Right, so show me the lies?

[Pannonian]

Right, so show me the lies?

Try the 350m per week for the NHS claim, which was disowned after the referendum, with the explanation that it was an aspiration, not a promise. There's the claim that Turkey was about to enter the EU. Which they were never close to, and even if they were, we could always veto it. Was that the truth too? What about the recent claim from the trade minister that the EU-Japan trade deal will boost UK exports by billions? What about the same idiot's claim that the UK-EU trade deal will be the easiest in the world to negotiate? What about the promise that a 52-48 result would not be the end of the matter?

I'd like some truth about the implementation of Brexit as well. Such as the process behind engaging Seaborne when the company has no assets and no experience, yet was given a 14m contract. The Times has also reported that latest cabinet discussions suggest that 30k troops will need to be ready to prepare for Brexit, not 3k as was previously thought to be the case, based on the experience of the 2001 fuel protests (an incident that I've cited as an example of the problems that we'll be facing, but was either dismissed or ignored by you and other Brexiters). Why is such a deployment necessary, and does your document address the issues behind the necessity of such a deployment? NB. this isn't a think tank, whose purpose is to peddle fantasies, producing these plans. It's the government.

At what point do we stop trying to focus on the fine detail, and conclude that the whole thing is a fundamentally bad idea?

[Furunculus]

No.

No, no, no.

Tell me about the lies of this piece that allows you to write it off without any critique of the methodology.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Boys, look, I am starting up a microbrewery and to be honest the price of hops is killing me. Californian's just love these 150 IBU IPAs, it's disgusting but that's the market for you.

Starting March 29th, I am buying up all those quality German hops that no longer have a destination to go to at discount prices. Please don't sign May's deal, otherwise it's gonna screw up my profit margins.

[Pannonian]

No.

No, no, no.

Tell me about the lies of this piece that allows you to write it off without any critique of the methodology.

Will you summarise it, or highlight the salient points? Given the track record of Brexiteers, I'm not too hopeful there's anything worth bothering with. Eg. your and their bright idea of following the Singapore model as an economy. Except that Singapore is a city with very little hinterland, and doing as you say would result in the loss of our agricultural industry. Which you said you were fine with, but which immediately makes it unacceptable to me and probably a sizeable majority of the UK population. And if you think I should have to read all of it myself; well, I've cited and summarised the testimony of Mr Trucker, showing how government policy has been influenced by it, and you still say that you can't be bothered to listen to it or read it.

And will you address the latest news on the government's implementation of Brexit? This isn't a dream peddled by a think tank, that can invent all kinds of stuff and dare you to prove them wrong. It's reportage of what the government is actually doing or planning about this thing you voted for.

[Pannonian]

Boys, look, I am starting up a microbrewery and to be honest the price of hops is killing me. Californian's just love these 150 IBU IPAs, it's disgusting but that's the market for you.

Starting March 29th, I am buying up all those quality German hops that no longer have a destination to go to at discount prices. Please don't sign May's deal, otherwise it's gonna screw up my profit margins.

You don't need hops. Just use some cheap artificial preservatives and the US trade deal will require us to accept it. Come to think of it, you don't need the other traditional ingredients either. Mix industrial alcohol with some flavourings, and you're good to go. Give it some traditional English name for marketing here as well, as the EU will no longer be protecting our regional brands.

[Furunculus]

Will you summarise it, or highlight the salient points? Given the track record of Brexiteers, I'm not too hopeful there's anything worth bothering with. Eg. your and their bright idea of following the Singapore model as an economy. Except that Singapore is a city with very little hinterland, and doing as you say would result in the loss of our agricultural industry. Which you said you were fine with, but which immediately makes it unacceptable to me and probably a sizeable majority of the UK population. And if you think I should have to read all of it myself; well, I've cited and summarised the testimony of Mr Trucker, showing how government policy has been influenced by it, and you still say that you can't be bothered to listen to it or read it.

And will you address the latest news on the government's implementation of Brexit? This isn't a dream peddled by a think tank, that can invent all kinds of stuff and dare you to prove them wrong. It's reportage of what the government is actually doing or planning about this thing you voted for.

There is an executive summary, put on your big boy pants and try reading it.

If you get to any difficult words let me know, and I'll help.

[Pannonian]

There is an executive summary, put on your big boy pants and try reading it.

If you get to any difficult words let me know, and I'll help.

Have you listened to Mr Trucker's testimony yet? The government have already written policy in response to it. Do you still think it is too insignificant to take notice of?

And again, what do you think of the latest news of the government's implementation of Brexit? It's not think tank fantasy, but actual news of what the government is actually doing.

[Pannonian]

Well,, I gave it a go, which is more than can be said for you and Mr Trucker. This early sentence didn't augur well: "Building on the “Audit of Geopolitical Capability” from September 2017", as it builds on something that must have some kind of credibility in order for this update to have any. Googling that document mainly returns reports of this document, with the headline claim that the UK is 2nd most powerful country in the world by its reckoning, which immediately sets off BS alarms. Still, I went a bit further, and looked at the methodology, as you suggested. The study is broken down into various areas. A look at these includes a number of areas where experts in these fields have been forthright on how Brexit damages them (the latest, universities). So I'd like you to explain why I should overlook their expert opinions in favour of this think tank document whose headline conclusion screams BS to me.

One thing tickled me though. In order to seem scientific and everything, the study presents its findings on stylised maps with metrics on the edge and how high the UK rates. The list of countries thus studied is quite exhaustive, but there are still some gaps. To help fill these gaps, here's one for Ousmane Dembele. Lionel Messi. Cristiano Ronaldo vs Arjen Robben. I'm sure there are others.

[Furunculus]

doesn't fit the narrative. very troubling i know.

he's only been in front of parliamentary committees half a dozen times, wrong type of expert.

[Montmorency]

No.

No, no, no.

Tell me about the lies of this piece that allows you to write it off without any critique of the methodology.

China is graded to have "cultural prestige" about par with Saudi Arabia? Tosh. Cultural prestige is not a function of "freedom to create" (the weightiest component of the instrument). China is probably in the top 20 or even 10 for soft power, certainly above - what the hell does KSA even have, holy cities?

(I didn't read anything, just glanced at one of the tables.)

Boys, look, I am starting up a microbrewery and to be honest the price of hops is killing me. Californian's just love these 150 IBU IPAs, it's disgusting but that's the market for you.

Starting March 29th, I am buying up all those quality German hops that no longer have a destination to go to at discount prices. Please don't sign May's deal, otherwise it's gonna screw up my profit margins.

Real or satire?

[Pannonian]

doesn't fit the narrative. very troubling i know.

You're missing the point. The metrics that the study cites, such as education, trade, etc. are areas that the expert opinions are almost unanimous on that Brexit is bad. And the conclusion that the UK is 2nd in the world? Presumably the US is top, which puts us above China. And the study looks at the EU countries in isolation, but as we've seen from the exit negotiations, the EU acts as a bloc. And even so, this would still put us ahead of Germany. And it puts us ahead of Japan, which has a far higher GDP than us, twice the population, better education, better productivity, greater industrialisation, etc. Is this because soft power puts us ahead? But look at another of the arguments put forward: that Nigeria should replace the EU, citing its population and economy. But isn't Japan far ahead of us by these metrics? If we are ahead of Japan by other metrics, how does that put Nigeria ahead of the EU? Especially as the EU is far ahead on just about every metric, and has a greater population to boot.

And those maps that are supposed to be impressive: I know what they are. They're called football radars, and are used to analyse football players. They are used because tables and bar charts are boring. Their proof of concept is how they can demonstrate a common sense fact: that Leo Messi is far better than anyone else. They're not trusted for anything other than a very broad overview, and they have limitations based on the metrics being used. Your chosen metrics are dodgy based on how experts in these fields view your arguments, and unlike football radars, they do not demonstrate a common sense fact as proof of concept. Choose irrelevant metrics, and Harry Maguire is a better player than Leo Messi. Which he's not, and any study that claims it forfeits credibility. Even more so when the arguments within are applied inconsistently to produce far out claims.

If this is supposed to be your decisive card in showing how your argument prevails, it's been just as much a waste of time as I'd anticipated just by looking at who produced it. Are you going to listen to Mr Trucker's testimony, now that I've read the rubbish that you've told me to read?

[Pannonian]

Oh hang on. The replacement of the EU with Nigeria isn't a political conclusion, but a condition of the study, because

As the Eu is not a country, and insofar as there is insufficient data to ascertain its geopolitical
capability – the sum of its parts would not be representative of its own performance – it has
been excluded from the Audit. Instead, nigeria has been included to provide better
representation of Africa. Indeed, nigeria is now the largest economy in Africa, as well as the
continent’s most populous country. 32 nigeria is also expected to increase markedly in
economic weight and population over the coming half-century, with perhaps as many as 410
million citizens by 2050, and its economy producing more in terms of nominal Gross Domestic
Product than Italy.

Is the EU not an economic bloc? Has the EU not acted as a political bloc wrt the UK during the exit negotiations? Is this a way to remove the EU from consideration because the EU is too powerful to fit into the chosen narrative?

[Pannonian]

China is graded to have "cultural prestige" about par with Saudi Arabia? Tosh. Cultural prestige is not a function of "freedom to create" (the weightiest component of the instrument). China is probably in the top 20 or even 10 for soft power, certainly above - what the hell does KSA even have, holy cities?

(I didn't read anything, just glanced at one of the tables.)

One of the greatest acts of Chinese soft power is its investment in 3rd world countries with infrastructure that they can't pay for, which the Chinese eventually take over on default. Given my interests, Pakistan is a pretty detailed example of the Chinese MO, and Pakistanis (or at least their middle class) aren't happy.

[a completely inoffensive name]

One of the greatest acts of Chinese soft power is its investment in 3rd world countries with infrastructure that they can't pay for, which the Chinese eventually take over on default. Given my interests, Pakistan is a pretty detailed example of the Chinese MO, and Pakistanis (or at least their middle class) aren't happy.

Really? I consider that a liability. paying millions for infrastructure which you do not directly control. What is to stop a country from nationalizing it? Are they going to try the same approach the US and British did in the middle east in response to secular, socialist, pan-arabism?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Real or satire?

Closer to the latter. Unfortunately, I know in my heart that when no deal happens, the EU will likely pay full price to the farmers for any cancelled UK shipments and then torch the supply.

[Montmorency]

Really? I consider that a liability. paying millions for infrastructure which you do not directly control. What is to stop a country from nationalizing it? Are they going to try the same approach the US and British did in the middle east in response to secular, socialist, pan-arabism?

Without foreign support, a country like Sri Lanka or Zambia practicing maximum defiance against Chinese neocolonialism is going to have some hard times in short order. Whether China or non-national organizations, intsoc is necessary.

Closer to the latter. Unfortunately, I know in my heart that when no deal happens, the EU will likely pay full price to the farmers for any cancelled UK shipments and then torch the supply.

These contracts are long-term, aren't they? Maybe the EU farmers have begun shifting buyers by now?

[Husar]

Californian's

*Californians

I agree with the rest though.

[Pannonian]

Really? I consider that a liability. paying millions for infrastructure which you do not directly control. What is to stop a country from nationalizing it? Are they going to try the same approach the US and British did in the middle east in response to secular, socialist, pan-arabism?

Most of the workers are Chinese. The elite get kickbacks, the Chinese get the infrastructure. See the British in India.