XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

Question to Fredwood

lol

So what I saw with Barts vote and dismissal was a null push and asking non-solving questions? I don't see how, I literally said he was my top scummread today and stated why, then asked if I should rethink the read (no one has even addressed it outside of novice). I thought it was based on his lax pressure vote and ignoring of my response (which I thought was a bit scum), then cleared 3 people that I likely think are town. I have no input on the meta-analysis that is rampant currently, and I still gave my strongest reads with rather specific reasons for them.

And I am scum hunting, this is why I'm asking you this question. In my mind it was super specific in the reasons I was voting and not voting for those people (with the exception of CS),for you to say it wasn't either means there's a disconnect either intentionally or unintentionally. If it was a bad read for bad reasons, I can handle the critique, it's kind of why I'm playing here, to actually get better.

Who did you clear by this point in time and post number in the game?

I'm re-reading to see if I missed something, and what I'm seeing are "slight" town leans. I didn't sleep very well so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility that my reading comprehension is really bad. I'm staring at lots and lots of posts right now and it's all starting to blur.

Assistance on this point would be great in terms of being able to tell if you're on the level or exaggerating.

[Fredwood]

So had a mod moment. Could the lack of the NK be kind of representative of the XCom game. So much of the game is about setting up the ambush and getting the positioning just right. Maybe they couldn't kill N1, and will have multiple kills on other nights. That's more of a "this would be cool" workshop type thing then really a helpful thing, but it was a thought.

[Fredwood]

Question to Fredwood


Who did you clear by this point in time and post number in the game?

I'm re-reading to see if I missed something, and what I'm seeing are "slight" town leans. I didn't sleep very well so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility that my reading comprehension is really bad. I'm staring at lots and lots of posts right now and it's all starting to blur.

Assistance on this point would be great in terms of being able to tell if you're on the level or exaggerating.

I had the point on DP, but felt the Bart's vote on him cleared DP for that phase and that post was just a bad one.

I also had Csargo as a town lean, and you specifically on your insistence that you were forcing yourself to go to bed but still kept posting. Tonally felt like genuine excitement about the game.

It was a lengthy post where I said them, so formatting the names in bold in big posts is probably advised.

I tend to give more credit to my town reads then my scum reads in general though.

I also posted a bit of a wall after the Jowy flip where I TR a few more.

[Fredwood]

I had the point on DP, but felt the Bart's vote on him cleared DP for that phase and that post was just a bad one.

I also had Csargo as a town lean, and you specifically on your insistence that you were forcing yourself to go to bed but still kept posting. Tonally felt like genuine excitement about the game.

It was a lengthy post where I said them, so formatting the names in bold in big posts is probably advised.

I tend to give more credit to my town reads then my scum reads in general though.

I also posted a bit of a wall after the Jowy flip where I TR a few more.

Also my definition of clearing may be different then yours, my process is more looking for positive then negative, so if I'm mentioning positive leans or even if I say slight leans I'm typically clearing them for that phase.

I did get pinged by Bart and tried something a bit foreign to my playstyle, maybe it contributed to the awkwardness of the interaction, maybe it didn't and Bart is actually scum and I just broken clocked him.

[novice]

Skimmed to the end, caught up to page 7.

I'd love to say that this behaviour, coming from champ, is atypical of an average game of his, but unfortunately, this isn't uncommon enough from him to easily write him off as frozen.

The initial enthusiasm followed by not playing, Crimson described it, IS atypical though.

What made you come around so quickly on this by the way, in post 500 you say:
"You know, I'm actually becoming gradually mroe ok with a Champ lynch. Him just popping in really does not feel that typical of his play."

Brief insight: if Dp101 is scum, I find it unlikely that novice is on his team. I saw at least one post by novice that looks like too convincing a case for Dp101 and novice to be on the same team.

Are you saying I made a convincing case on Dp101? Where?

so, like

nobody who's been on the table all day except dp?

This kind of feels disingenuous. Champ, El Barto, Jowy have all gotten serious votes that I can recall off top of head, while I think Csargo is only one of those that has.

Agreed.

If you lynch inside my townies, or me, after the day I had today.

Why is no one voting Jowy?

I'm about to put my vote back on dp101. But I honestly don't get how you guys are letting an obviously fake process like his fly.

Question/analysis task for everyone, really: How did we end up lynching Jowy after Pizza repeatedly promised to vote Dp101?

Fredwood didn't do anything since I slightly scum read him but post this and peace out.

No one followed up on this guy either.

This is a textbook flinch.

Why am I the only one who engaged with Fredwood regarding his theories? I think his case on El Barto was perfectly valid, but it seems people are trying to hush it up.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I had the point on DP, but felt the Bart's vote on him cleared DP for that phase and that post was just a bad one.

I also had Csargo as a town lean, and you specifically on your insistence that you were forcing yourself to go to bed but still kept posting. Tonally felt like genuine excitement about the game.

It was a lengthy post where I said them, so formatting the names in bold in big posts is probably advised.

I tend to give more credit to my town reads then my scum reads in general though.

I also posted a bit of a wall after the Jowy flip where I TR a few more.

Don't take this as pressure, I'm not doing pressure today. I got most of the info I needed last round due to tallies and content.

The issue I am having with this characterization is, you said "cleared", and to me, a slight town lean is not clear. Those are worlds apart and this is not a nitpick. It's a big deal, because you're giving yourself credit for clears, which is much harder to do that give someone a slight town lean.

Clears means you'll probably go to bat for them if the lynch vote is between them and a null. People's reads fluctuate, and a slight town lean and a null can switch places very easily and for little reasons. It doesn't paint you into a corner like clearing townies does.

Csargo was slight town lean, so was I.

I'll give you the read on me, in fairness, because of the specifics you gave.

That said, I read your commentary on dp and it calls out his post as scummy and talks about why for a while, and in the end, it really wasn't obvious to me how strong your lean was on dp and it didn't seem very confident at all, and truth be told, I can't tell if your lean there was town. It looked a bit like fence straddling.

Anything that happened after the referenced post is something I can look at, but not in terms of a time-frame analysis. At the time, you said you had already cleared 3 townies. If you clear people later that doesn't justify the earlier assertion.

In my opinion, that claim that you had cleared 3 people is inaccurate. And based on the way you worded it (in your own words, you said slight, and then you said clear, which means I think you have a difference between the two in your own mind, not just how I view it) I think you knew it was inaccurate.

I think you were exaggerating how much solving you had done.

Can you have done that as town? Yes, but I don't know why you would. And I don't find it that common. My impression of you is that you're not particularly someone who tends to exaggerate your accomplishments. You seem put together and more sensible than that.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Also my definition of clearing may be different then yours, my process is more looking for positive then negative, so if I'm mentioning positive leans or even if I say slight leans I'm typically clearing them for that phase.

I'll consider this explanation. Trying really hard to keep an open mind and not tunnel here.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I found this tally interesting in my re-reading. I stopped and looked for potential partner exclusions.



Teal are the strong town leans I have currently.
Green are the mild town leans I have currently.
Light green indicates I favor Manasi in a lot of situations where it is either Manasi or the other party (ex: Sooh or Champ) but it's not strong.
Purple is the not-mafia lean I have on Monty.
No scum leans put on the board.

Official Tally as of #593

2 Champ (crimson_snow, Jowy)
2 Csargo (Dp101, novice)
2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
2 Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Dp101 (El Barto)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 Manasi (Champ)
1 novice (autolycus)

Based on this, if Champ is scum it clears snow, which isn't a lot of people but I think there were others who bothered to scum-push champ yesterday and I think those can be genuine pushes from towns, if he's scum. I think Manasi gets a town lean that expires close to endgame if Champ is scum.

One of Auto and novice can be scum, would not anticipate both. Not even saying I'm leaning that way, just noting it's not a couple probably.

Fred or Sooh flipping scum looks great for El Barto. They look very unaligned with Barto and vice-versa.

Sooh flipping scum looks great for Bsmith, but it's too easy distancing to lock him town. I'd give him a round or two.

Barto flipping scum would give Fredwood and Sooh at least a round or two of relief. They're individually problematic enough that I don't know if I ever lock them town, but the scum team really should not be Barto-Fred or Barto-Sooh. So if Barto was scum I think I have to swallow both of those reads and start hunting inside places like Winston or Autolycus. Probably Champ first, in that universe.

Csargo and novice are not a couple, I don't think. Not really thinking that was a strong possibility anyway.

Auto probably not scum with Novice.

Champ can be scum with almost everyone.

Winston and Logic low odds of being a scum team.

Monty scum clears Logic and Cuth quite well.

This is why I like the low tallies on day one, folks. It's quite pro-town for analysts. This isn't always precise but it narrows a lot of possible universes which gives scums less wiggle room even when the game should still be wide open.

Now, unlikely tinfoils.

If Csargo is scum, Dp101 is clean, and novice looks pretty damned good, because Csargo was getting a lot of town reads. You don't put the 2nd vote on him there as his partner, especially when he's feeling 50 times peppier this game than most others I've seen. Novice basically lock clear unless it's final 3, in Csargo-scum universe.

Dp101 scum clears the folks that pushed him early, but not late. He looked bad so bussing probs increase after mid-round.

Logic scum looks great for Winston and Monty. Additionally I don't see why Cuth (as Logic's scum buddy) would place his vote in the above manner. Too many other good places to put it. That's a good vote for Logic-Cuth scum team because it is anti-analysis, but I think the odds are very low that's where that vote goes.

Manasi scum might clear someone, but she was never under serious pressure. Even Champ's vote was looking like a mutual early game vote. So not based off of this tally. I might be overlooking something, have to look at Manasi-Champ interactions again to make a judgment.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Also my definition of clearing may be different then yours, my process is more looking for positive then negative, so if I'm mentioning positive leans or even if I say slight leans I'm typically clearing them for that phase.

I did get pinged by Bart and tried something a bit foreign to my playstyle, maybe it contributed to the awkwardness of the interaction, maybe it didn't and Bart is actually scum and I just broken clocked him.

If he is scum then you look much better.

I will say he is fantastically difficult to read for me. I don't know if I ever lock clear Barto in any game without a cop check. Not because I'm afraid of him, just because his behavior and thinking process is so different from mine. I can't tell what he would or wouldn't do and I've scummed with him before and I can't really process him by putting myself in his shoes.

[Fredwood]

Don't take this as pressure, I'm not doing pressure today. I got most of the info I needed last round due to tallies and content.

The issue I am having with this characterization is, you said "cleared", and to me, a slight town lean is not clear. Those are worlds apart and this is not a nitpick. It's a big deal, because you're giving yourself credit for clears, which is much harder to do that give someone a slight town lean.

Clears means you'll probably go to bat for them if the lynch vote is between them and a null. People's reads fluctuate, and a slight town lean and a null can switch places very easily and for little reasons. It doesn't paint you into a corner like clearing townies does.

Csargo was slight town lean, so was I.

I'll give you the read on me, in fairness, because of the specifics you gave.

That said, I read your commentary on dp and it calls out his post as scummy and talks about why for a while, and in the end, it really wasn't obvious to me how strong your lean was on dp and it didn't seem very confident at all, and truth be told, I can't tell if your lean there was town. It looked a bit like fence straddling.

Anything that happened after the referenced post is something I can look at, but not in terms of a time-frame analysis. At the time, you said you had already cleared 3 townies. If you clear people later that doesn't justify the earlier assertion.

In my opinion, that claim that you had cleared 3 people is inaccurate. And based on the way you worded it (in your own words, you said slight, and then you said clear, which means I think you have a difference between the two in your own mind, not just how I view it) I think you knew it was inaccurate.

I think you were exaggerating how much solving you had done.

Can you have done that as town? Yes, but I don't know why you would. And I don't find it that common. My impression of you is that you're not particularly someone who tends to exaggerate your accomplishments. You seem put together and more sensible than that.

Maybe but at the time you said 0 solving. Semantics aside I was not going to vote for you, CS or DP last phase. I don't see how it's exaggeration, especially with the caveat that I didn't have a lot of reads because Day 1 was a lot of meta analysis that I didn't have enough reference to weigh in on. so from my POV it's rather significant given the both the situation and the nature of most day 1's. So I do think the reverse of what you say about me and exaggeration can be said in regards to you about minimizing a person's contribution.

As for DP, to me as long as Bart is alive, I will not vote for DP. Yes it's not a town read per say, it's a contingent town read I guess.

I wasn't posting my post Jowy flip post as justification I was posting it as reference to what I view as a similar post even after you said I had done 0 solving, why would I ever lynch even my slightest of town leans? I doubt I'll be hardclearing many people this game non-mechanically because this is my first time playing with all of you.

Also, I just like arguing and talking about me. Answering this has less to do with me viewing it as pressure as much as it does with me being full of myself.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Is there anything presently hampering your ability to be active in any way?

I don't care what it is specifically, a yes or no is fine and I'll leave it at that.

How do you feel about the game state?

[novice]

In any case, time is basically up for a lot of people this round.

Sooh and I are not going to be around I'd imagine, just due to where we live on the earth.

A lot of people have already peaced out for the round, and many of them were my suspects, and those people looked super comfortable with the tally.

I think this is a mislynch or non-scum lynch in progress, just by reading the room.

I think those of us who are here need to throw our weight around and push a scum now.

If you're not following me then I need a scummy candidate I can lynch. And most of the folks with votes ain't cutting it.

Csargo I'd lynch Jowy, Fredwood, Novice, and very few other people.

I gotta go. What's the call?

Two townies and a town lean, nice. Waiting for people to go offline and then starting lynch wagons on them is not the best process.

[novice]

Your pussyfooting around with scum reading Jowy but also everyone voting him means I'm going to cap you here, dp101.

Vote Jowy or die.

I thought Dp's posts on Jowy had a natural progression:

I think that Jowy is not the worst option, but I am rather partial to that sweet sweet Pizza tinfoil that Monty is putting out there.

Confidence in Csargo read dropping by the second.

(In response to Jowy voting Csargo)

I was moderately ready to vote Jowy before this, Pizza's opinion on him not notwithstanding, but this just makes the wagon look even more scummy to me.

(In response to Champ voting Jowy)

I dunno. I feel that Jowy is rather scummy, but I just hate the behaviour of those on him.

[Fredwood]

Is there anything presently hampering your ability to be active in any way?

I don't care what it is specifically, a yes or no is fine and I'll leave it at that.

How do you feel about the game state?

Aside from sleep and just buying CIV VI no, not really...I have an eclectic sleep schedule because of my work, so I tend to be active when I am active.

The game state as in what, in regards to other places I've played? P. standard day 1 more meta dependence then usual which is why the low post count (though I could have probably had like 10 more if I broke up my walls). That probably dies down as the game goes on though, which would mean I have more things to post about.

[novice]

The least convincing person who commented on Jowy was Manasi.

Jowy's fakepeek and cop cover was downright terrible and wouldn't have convinced town or scums alike, in my view. Manasi hanging on to that almost 2 full days later and bringing it up as her only comment about Jowy isn't realistic to me as an actual defense.

Yeah I would like to see Manasi's response to this.

If Manasi is scum and got a moderate townread from me, her behavior toward Jowy this game should be looked at.

This is strangely formulated though, what are you trying to say? It's a little late to cross-examine Jowy, and if Manasi is scum we should lynch her, right?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Yeah I would like to see Manasi's response to this.


This is strangely formulated though, what are you trying to say? It's a little late to cross-examine Jowy, and if Manasi is scum we should lynch her, right?

The sentence is a bit garbled.

If Manasi got a moderate townread from me and is scum, her behavior toward Jowy this game should be looked at (to determine if that is the case).

Which is also not a great sentence. The "if" doesn't really apply.

It should be "her behavior toward Jowy should be looked at to determine if Manasi is scum". A lot simpler, but that thought was happening at the same time I'm thinking I've got a moderate townread on her and what if she's scum.

Those thoughts all combined into one cluster of a sentence.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The game state as in what, in regards to other places I've played? P. standard day 1 more meta dependence then usual which is why the low post count (though I could have probably had like 10 more if I broke up my walls). That probably dies down as the game goes on though, which would mean I have more things to post about.

Are you optimistic? Is town in a good spot right now or a bad spot, do you think?

[novice]

Vote: Jowy

A bad day ended by a bad vote.

Vote: Champ

For everyone's perusal, here was the tally before this vote:

Lynch votes
3 votes: Csargo (Dp101, novice, Jowy)
3 votes: Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo, El Barto)
2 votes: Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)
2 votes: El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 votes: Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
1 votes: Manasi (Champ)
1 votes: Champ (crimson_snow)
1 votes: Novice (autolycus)
1 votes: Pizza (Montmorency)
1 votes: Logic (Winston Hughes)

Voting history:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Manasi

Champ

No Lynch

Fredwood

Dp101

No Lynch

Askthepizzaguy

crimson_snow

Askthepizzaguy

Novice

Novice

Winston Hughes

Autolycus

Sooh

Manasi

Pizza

El barto

ATPG

Dp101

dp101

Cuthillius

El Barto

Dp101

Csargo

monty

El Barto

Cuthilius

Unvote

Montmorency

Jowy

Champ

csargo

Csargo

Champ

Sooh

Montmorency

Logic

Unvote

montmorency

El Barto

Jowy

csargo

Jowy

@Cuthilius: What turned you off voting Csargo yesterday?

Will study N1 and D2 later.

[Askthepizzaguy]

A bad day ended by a bad vote.

Other than Jowy's alignment being town, what was bad about day one?

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll even make it a softball question. I think it would be a scummy narrative to call day one bad. Or be at all unenthusiastic about the game state.

No death last night is great, and the actual information that can be gleaned by the tally for much of the round is extremely useful for pairing analysis.

And I have a lot more townies than I did at end of day 1 than start of day 1.

The narrative that day one was bad, is wolfy as hell.

[Fredwood]

Are you optimistic? Is town in a good spot right now or a bad spot, do you think?

Well it's early? Good position, day 2 and we're only down 1 townie. Why has yet to be seen, I'm going to tinfoil my mod workshop thought though. You're leading the phases but have enough pushback on you so you're not uncontested so it's a balanced domination, which is my preferred scenario. Good amount of info out there to dissect once we get that scum flip.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Well it's early? Good position, day 2 and we're only down 1 townie. Why has yet to be seen, I'm going to tinfoil my mod workshop thought though. You're leading the phases but have enough pushback on you so you're not uncontested so it's a balanced domination, which is my preferred scenario. Good amount of info out there to dissect once we get that scum flip.

This is a good answer.

And a good crosspost.

My remaining issue is, if the game state is so positive, what are you doing right now for town, with that optimism in your mind?

What have you been looking at for the past few hours. Any new impressions?

[Fredwood]

Well, tbf it's just been me you and novice having a cas q&a sess for the last few hours, so nothing has changed aside from enforcing what I felt. I read the EOD 2 times, probably 3 times while I was compiling my thoughts. I had no interaction or read on Jowwy before he was even voted for. But I'm afraid I'm already suffering from a little group think and would be parroting there, so I'll observe with interest DP's and Novice's threads about that.

Novice has graduated to probably my strongest town read currently. I'm still paranoid about buddying, so that's in the back of my mind when seeing some of his posts. I do feel the effort is genuine and is less likely to be a case of buddying the new guy then Sooh because his content has been high effort this phase.

My plan is to try to get a better read on nulls, primarily Manasi (though I have a feeling that might be a lost cause) and logic, which I think won't be.

[Fredwood]

This is a good answer.

And a good crosspost.

My remaining issue is, if the game state is so positive, what are you doing right now for town, with that optimism in your mind?

What have you been looking at for the past few hours. Any new impressions?

Oh and if in regards to you, I don't know I'm at a weird place. I'm still giving you a ton of credit for the tonal read I got earlier, but have concerns about your reads borne out of what I think was an inaccurate representation of mine and possibly a few others

[novice]

The narrative that day one was bad, is wolfy as hell.

A bad day by Champ.

[Sooh]

ISOs bottom up.

Autolucus is a great big ??? with his 1 post.

BSmith not much better with two. Him placing a joke vote on someone to start off the game isn't uncommon. He did the same last game. Him leaving it when he came back and arguably didn't know much about game state is more troubling to me, but I guess there was no real danger that I was being lynched at the point he popped in again.

Logic has many gif posts, jokes and quips. Not much in terms of content otherwise. I don't know why people are townreading him (by people here I guess I mean Pizza, because he's the only one I remember having Logic up high). If anyone is reading him town, can you please let me know why?

Winston started the game with a miller claim, which he later redacted. I think him feeling confident enough to do so is a good sign, plus the fact that he cared enough to follow up when Manasi missed his question. Also he's scum leaning on Logic, which I like :P

Champ not paying attention to the game again. NAI.

Those were the easy ISOs. On to the bigger ones.

[Sooh]

Fredwood: Classical new player until #345. I understand the read on El Barto from someone not used to him. I can also see what he's saying about DP, so good feels in general about that post.
I don't understand who #399 is talking to. Is it to Pizza? I feel like I'm missing context.
From what I see Fredwood is mixing up joke votes with pressure/random votes, which is fine for someone not used to the concept. I still feel pretty good about this ISO, and while I see the defensive that's being brought up I don't think it's unnatural in this case where it's a new player on a new site who's being bugged repeatedly about one misunderstanding. I still have a town lean here.

[Sooh]

Montmorency:
#119 is wut? I don't see how that question led to that answer.
I don't think Monty goes all in on Pizza as scum if Pizza is town. At least that's something I don't remember seeing before. I dislike on both ends the attempts to discredit one another's reads and feels. It will never impress me.
A wish for D2: Can you make more reads all around so that I know your stance on people who aren't Pizza? I don't see Pizza lynched D2 this game, even if he is scum.
I'm having a hard time seeing Monty/Pizza V/V here. One or both may be wolves.

[Sooh]

El Barto:
Obvious joke vote on Fredwood.

Sidenote: After 4 posts in the game, all jokes, Pizza thinks El Barto is cagey.

Another sidenote: Ugh I'm tunneling Pizza.

Why did you vote Jowy here?

Conclusion: lol.

I don't have the same positive vibes from El Barto that I did last game, but at the same time I'm not sure how much negative there is. On second read through he seems ok-ish? I don't feel like he's town for me yet, though I do like his continued questioning for clarification on people's votes and posts.

[Sooh]

Novice: I like #83, #121, #348 (he said earlier he was going to go back to check and then did), the list can go on and on, because I think he's showing incentive to solve, townie process and I like what I'm seeing, even if volume is down from the previous game.

Sidenote: I think #826 is a townie point for Pizza.