GOP Nominee

[Lemur]

If I was alive to recollect the 1938 Elections, I'd be feeling a very strong sense of deja vu right now.

Hmm, not getting the reference. Could you flesh that thought out a little?

simple fixes like interstate insurance purchases, liability reform, pay-for-performance metrics, transferable insurance, etc.

You posted enough points for three or four threads, but I'll just point out that when it comes to healthcare, 2% of gross expenses go to liability and liability insurance; 21% go to administration. I'm getting a bit tired of hearing how TORT reform is going to rein in healthcare expense inflation when this has been repeatedly demonstrated to be false.

-edit-

Getting back on-topic, here's an encouraging evaluation of PJ's own Tim Pawlentey:

If a Tea Party true believer like Sarah Palin or even former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum wins the nomination, and then Obama wins the election, the Republican Party might have a Goldwater moment where it starts to reconsider its small-tent extremism. [...]

There is one other possibility, and that’s Tim Pawlenty. [...] he is the kind of candidate who could help the GOP gloss over its internal contradictions, uniting Tea Party bomb-throwers who want a holy war against government and establishment types who want a plausible Chamber of Commerce nominee. And his bland demeanor could help make the election all about Obama, so that Republicans wouldn’t have to decide what they think about reality until 2013.

Maybe he’s the Fred Thompson of 2012—logical on paper but a dud on the trail. And as Scherer says, it’s definitely Romney’s turn. But I’m not so sure Romney will get his turn.

Finally, here's NRO's take on the five biggest challenges for a Pawlenty candidacy.

[PanzerJaeger]

You posted enough points for three or four threads, but I'll just point out that when it comes to healthcare, 2% of gross expenses go to liability and liability insurance; 21% go to administration. I'm getting a bit tired of hearing how TORT reform is going to rein in healthcare expense inflation when this has been repeatedly demonstrated to be false.

Well, the costs and benefits of liability reform are certainly debatable...

The litigation and malpractice insurance problem raids the wallet of every
American. Money spent on malpractice premiums (and the litigation costs that
largely determine premiums) raises health care costs. Doctors alone spent $6.3
billion last year to obtain coverage.27 Hospitals and nursing homes spent
additional billions of dollars.

The litigation system also imposes large indirect costs on the health care
system. Defensive medicine that is caused by unlimited and unpredictable
liability awards not only increases patients’ risk but it also adds costs. The
leading study estimates that limiting unreasonable awards for non-economic
damages could reduce health care costs by 5-9% without adversely affecting
quality of care.28 This would save $60-108 billion in health care costs each year.
These savings would lower the cost of health insurance and permit an additional
2.4-4.3 million Americans to obtain insurance.29

The costs of the runaway litigation system are paid by all Americans,
through higher premiums for health insurance (which reduces workers’ take
home pay if the insurance is provided by an employer), higher out-of-pocket
payments when they obtain care, and higher taxes.

The Federal Government--and thus every taxpayer who pays federal
income and payroll taxes--also pays for health care, in a number of ways. It
provides direct care, for instance, to members of the armed forces, veterans, and
patients served by the Indian Health Service. It provides funding for the
Medicare and Medicaid programs. It funds Community Health Centers. It also
provides assistance, through the tax system, for workers who obtain insurance
through their employment. The direct cost of malpractice coverage and the
indirect cost of defensive medicine increases the amount the Federal
Government must pay through these various channels, it is estimated, by $28.6-
47.5 billion per year.30 If reasonable limits were placed on non-economic
damages to reduce defensive medicine, it would reduce the amount of taxpayers’
money the Federal Government spends by $25.3-44.3 billion per year.31 This is
a very significant amount. It would more than fund a prescription drug benefit for
Medicare beneficiaries and help uninsured Americans obtain coverage through a
refundable health credit.32

...but that's why liability reform would be only a small part of PJ's overall healthcare initiative, with the main thrust being a conversion to an insurance-type structure.

Getting back on-topic, here's an encouraging evaluation of PJ's own Tim Pawlentey:

Yikes, that seems more like damnation with faint praise to me.

[Lemur]

Yikes, that seems more like damnation with faint praise to me.

Another faint damnation from another conservative blog (or, "We have seen the future and it is meh"):

Pawlenty’s candidacy doesn’t have any obvious rationale. In fact, the former Minnesota governor has trouble coming up with a reason why he is running at all. He doesn’t unnerve any major constituency in the party in the way that Huntsman does and Daniels did, but he isn’t that closely identified with any of them. He inspires neither intense loyalty nor especially strong dislike. Pawlenty is a compromise candidate in a party that is largely tired of having to settle for what they can get. The few things that distinguish him and make him somewhat interesting to some conservatives, such as his working-class background and conversion to evangelical Protestanism, are things that make him seem to be just enough of a working-class Huckabee-like populist to give some Republicans pause. This means that people with money are probably going to be disinclined to give some of that money to him just as they were unwilling to support Huckabee financially.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty’s actual record is so reliably and generically mainstream Republican that he appears merely adequate rather than exciting.

Unlike Huckabee, Pawlenty projects neither the charisma to sustain a campaign through free media appearances, nor does he have the natural opening to build networks of evangelical volunteers that the former pastor had. Imagine a campaign almost as cash-strapped as Huckabee’s, but with an unremarkable, plodding figure at the center of it instead of the bass guitar-playing evangelical comedian that Huckabee played throughout the 2007-08 contest. That will give you a good idea of the obstacles that await Pawlenty.

Every 2012 candidate needs more Borat, in my opinion.

[Lemur]

Well heck, maybe she is running. Hard to imagine the purpose of a two-hour reintroduction film otherwise. I dunno.

The result is a two-hour-long, sweeping epic, a rough cut of which Bannon screened privately for Sarah and Todd Palin last Wednesday in Arizona, where Alaska's most famous couple has been rumored to have purchased a new home. When it premieres in Iowa next month, the film is poised to serve as a galvanizing prelude to Palin's prospective presidential campaign -- an unconventional reintroduction to the nation that she and her political team have spent months eagerly anticipating, even as Beltway Republicans have largely concluded that she won't run.

Bannon, a former naval officer and ex-Goldman Sachs banker, sees his documentary as the first step in Palin's effort to rebuild her image in the eyes of voters who may have soured on her, yet might reconsider if old caricatures begin to fade. The film will also appeal to staunch Palin supporters who have long celebrated her biting rhetoric and conservative populism yet know little about her record in Alaska and have perhaps written her off as presidential material.

"This film is a call to action for a campaign like 1976: Reagan vs. the establishment," Bannon told RealClearPolitics. "Let's have a good old-fashioned brouhaha."

[Lemur]

An argument for taking Herman Cain seriously:

What’s especially interesting about Mr. Cain’s standing is that he polls at 8 percent despite being familiar to only about one-third of Republican voters, according to supplementary Gallup data. Of those voters who are familiar with him, 24 percent have him as their first choice. That’s the best figure for any candidate in the Republican field:



[...] I would not suggest that Mr. Cain is one of the leaders. But in a field where the three insider favorites to win the race — Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman — collectively poll at just 25 percent, and where some Republicans seem to be pining for an outsider (perhaps even outside-the-box) choice, he’s the freshest face. Although his credentials as an elected official are obviously nonexistent, that also means he has less baggage to run from.

Mr. Cain seems to be taking his bid seriously, unlike (for instance) Donald Trump. Polls like these ought to ensure that he gets at least a fair amount of media attention, assuming the press is doing its job properly.

He has good chance of having some influence on the race — perhaps like Mike Huckabee in 2008, a candidate with whom he shares some similarities. And I don’t think the possibility that he could actually win the nomination can so easily be dismissed.

[Ronin]

Well heck, maybe she is running. Hard to imagine the purpose of a two-hour reintroduction film otherwise. I dunno.

TV writers everywhere are praying to the comedy Gods she does run.
talk about jokes that write themselfs.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Alright well after a busy week, I have a three day weekend and I finally got around to reviewing Panzer's article he linked about Pawlenty. He is in a much better light in my eyes, although to be honest some of his health care reform was government involvement operating in similar scope to health care exchange provisions in "Obamacare".

Ultimately he is trying to promote more competition among hospitals, make hospitals more efficient and tries to give more info to consumers, yet that doesn't ultimately tackle the problem with costs. Insurance companies are a cartel. It doesn't matter if you can pick and choose which ever doctor you want, the insurance company is still in complete control of your money and whether or not you can spend it however you want, and whether or not you will be paying them more for less coverage or not.

[Lemur]

Miley Cyrus versus Rick Santorum -- IT'S ON!

Cyrus isn't a fan of Urban Outfitters after stories emerged alleging that the store has copied jewelry designs, so she pointed out that the company's president had contributed to Santorum.

“IF WE ALLOW GAY MARRIAGE NEXT THING U KNOW PEOPLE WILL BE MARRYING GOLD FISH’ – Rick Santorum UO contributed $13,000 to this mans campaign” tweeted Cyrus, mocking Santorum for some earlier remarks regarding gay marriage.

She also wrote about Urban Outfitters and Santorum: “Not only do they steal from artists but every time you give them money you help finance a campaign against gay equality.”

It may not be the best news for Santorum, who is expected to launch his campaign next week since Cyrus has over a million Twitter followers. Fortunately for him, however, most are probably too young to vote.

[Subotan]

I absolutely adore this ad. A set of sensible, thoughtful, well-considered statements by Huntsman are bundled together into an campaign ad - against him.

[Xiahou]

Miley Cyrus versus Rick Santorum

It's not like Santorum ever had a serious chance to begin with.... Of course, now that he's incurred Miley's wrath, he's truly finished.

In other news, apparently one-upping Pawlenty (while still not running) Palin says 'eliminate all energy subsidies'. Meanwhile Romney, ever the panderer, declares "I Support the Subsidy of Ethanol".

Just one more reason why I can't stomach Romney.....

[Lemur]

I've heard of micro-marketing, but this is ridiculous.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Anyone else annoyed by the 24-7 coverage of Palin while serious minded candidates like Gary Johnson are ignored? Argh.

CR

[Louis VI the Fat]

24-7 coverage of Palin

I say it's a plot by Democrats. The more focus on Palin, the less platform there is for other GOP candidates. They'll all end up with single digit name recognition.



Yay, I too managed yet another 'mention only Palin by name' post in a GOP thread, as they have thought us activists at Moveon.org. Forget about being a mod, I'm going to spam every GOP thread into mindless Palin talk.

It is just a plot to keep serious GOP candidates at bay. And there's nothing you conservatives can do about it. Save, perhaps, by creating your own 'Palin': by promoting a pointless Democrat candidate with tremendous magnetic appeal to the basic instincts of the hardcore base, but who is otherwise completely useless, inexperienced, unelectable. Say, by digging up an overtly ambitious young Black dude with a terrorist Muslim name and a single teenage mother. Or some such ridiculous.

[Ronin]

I say it's a plot by Democrats. The more focus on Palin, the less platform there is for other GOP candidates. They'll all end up with single digit name recognition.



Yay, I too managed yet another 'mention only Palin by name' post in a GOP thread, as they have thought us activists at Moveon.org. Forget about being a mod, I'm going to spam every GOP thread into mindless Palin talk.

It is just a plot to keep serious GOP candidates at bay. And there's nothing you conservatives can do about it. Save, perhaps, by creating your own 'Palin': by promoting a pointless Democrat candidate with tremendous magnetic appeal to the basic instincts of the hardcore base, but who is otherwise completely useless, inexperienced, unelectable. Say, by digging up an overtly ambitious young Black dude with a terrorist Muslim name and a single teenage mother. Or some such ridiculous.

Maybe they can prop up Charlie Sheen as a Democratic candidate....I think he's the only one who can stack up to Palin.

[Beskar]

Huntsman for GOP Nominee.

[Samurai Waki]

soooo sickeningly sappy and irrelevant...

[Lemur]

Huntsman for GOP Nominee.

Unfortunately, looks like Huntsman is a complete and utter non-starter for the GOP base.

Mr. Huntsman has taken a number of positions that are bound to be unacceptable to large swaths of the Republican electorate. Among them are expressing support for Barack Obama’s 2009 stimulus package, endorsing an individual mandate for health insurance, and securing Utah’s participation in a regional cap-and-trade program. Mr. Hunstman also holds a moderate position on gay marriage, having endorsed civil unions for same-sex couples. And he served as President Obama’s ambassador to China.

Many of the Republican candidates have taken at least one position that will give them problems with the conservative base — for instance, Mr. Romney’s passage of a Massachusetts health care bill similar to Barack Obama’s, Mr. Pawlenty’s endorsement of cap-and-trade, and Mr. Cain’s backing of the 2008 federal bailout. But none of the major contenders have the plethora of moderate positions that Mr. Huntsman has held. If these initial numbers hold as Mr. Huntsman continues to introduce himself to the electorate, and half of Republicans consider him an unacceptable alternative, his chances of winning the nomination will be near zero.

[Beskar]

Unfortunately, looks like Huntsman is a complete and utter non-starter for the GOP base.

It's a shame, even though that is meant to be an "attack advert" it actually makes Huntsman look like a good candidate. Also makes you think "If those are the bad things, the good things must be really good!", then you have to sit down and realise whoever made that video probably has some pretty skewed priorities so when Huntsman makes a comment of: "I regularly sacrifice aborted fetus to cthulhu", they probably classify it as a positive.

[ajaxfetish]

It makes me want to cry that the things I think would make a great executive are the same things that make a non-starter candidate.

Ajax

[drone]

Looks like Newt's campaign is imploding in an impressive manner. Probably for the best.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Newt is one of the worst of the worst. Pure politician that puts ideology over everything else. That kind of crap destroys nations.

[Lemur]

For those of you who "want your country back":

[PanzerJaeger]

Those production values are nothing compared to my Tim's awesome 24 style vids. Just sayin'.

Seriously, though, I think Mitt got a huge boost this week with all the negative economic news. It looks like this is essentially the economy Obama will have during the election, and it looks nothing like Reagan's morning in America. Healthcare may not even be a major focus if people are still hurting this badly come primary season.

[Motep]

poor, poor Huntsman...

Good news: New favourite GOP candidate. Bad news: It's Huntsman

[Crazed Rabbit]

Last I heard, Johnson was going to be excluded from the next GOP debate.

Not Gingrich or Bachmann, just the two term governor.



CR

[Xiahou]

Newt is one of the worst of the worst. Pure politician that puts ideology over everything else. That kind of crap destroys nations.

I remember Newt as an opportunist and a partisan hack, more than an ideologue. Nonetheless, I can't think of a Republican more deserving of a campaign implosion.

[Lemur]

Okay, I know it's unwise (bordering on psychotic) to make predictions this far out, but I'm getting the feeling that the Republican nomination is Pawlentey's to lose. Just the way things are lining up ... I know he's not at the top of any polls, but I know it won't be Romney or Bachman, Cain is a real talent but prone to gaffes and fantasy, Giuliani is far too liberal for the base, Christie and JB won't run ...

... yeah, the only thing between Pawlenty and the nomination is a Perry run. Well, that and hundreds of thousands of votes. But I got a feeling about this guy.

[Centurion1]

That's funny all the polls I have seen are putting Romney on top.

[Ronin]

Michele Bachmann officially a candidate

out in the distance, you can hear the sound of late night comedy writers popping champagne corks.

[Xiahou]

Michele Bachmann officially a candidate

out in the distance, you can hear the sound of late night comedy writers popping champagne corks.

Howard Kurtz seems to think she stole the show on last night's debate (I didn't watch it).

I want to like Bachmann, but some of her views are a little out there for me. I think she's pretty sound on economic policy, she was right on Libya, pro-life is good.... but intelligent design? Really?

She was at her most passionate on abortion, defending the “sanctity of human life.” But her toughest moment came when a questioner asked how she would balance her opposition to gay marriage with her advocacy of states’ rights.

Bachmann ducked at first, saying she believes in the 10th Amendment and also believes that marriage is between a man and a woman. When pressed, she said that as president she would not campaign to overturn state laws she didn’t like. But she softened her hard-line image by noting that she was raised by a single mother after her parents’ divorce.

That's a great answer in my opinion. If she's willing to apply that same logic to some things like her views on ID, I'd be pleased.