13 Year Old Corrects NASA

[Papewaio]

Schoolboy spares NASA's blushes over killer asteroid (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/04/16/1208025229770.html)


A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a one in 50 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only one in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13, 2029.

I wonder if this involved another NASA metric problem.

Looks like NASA will have another German in charge in a couple of years.

[Ice]

Schoolboy spares NASA's blushes over killer asteroid (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/04/16/1208025229770.html)



I wonder if this involved another NASA metric problem.

Looks like NASA will have another German in charge in a couple of years.

Uh, one in 50? That's a 2% chance, right? How big is this asteroid, and should we be worried?

[CrossLOPER]

Uh, one in 50? That's a 2% chance, right? How big is this asteroid, and should we be worried?
The article says that anyone living near the the Atlantic coastlines within ten to twenty years should be GREATLY concerned.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with Earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, while creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.Uh...now I'm not usually an end-of-civilisation-as-we-know-it alarmist, but 2% chance of this happening is a LOT. :inquisitive:

*sweats*

[Papewaio]

Now if we could capture it in low earth orbit along with the 12,000 other objects. Global Swarming (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23547979-2,00.html)

Imagine how the price in iron would drop... not good for Australia... but I'm sure China would like it.

[Shaka_Khan]

Thank goodness I live away from the Atlantic. But still, the dark skies that would be dark for years would be a problem for me. Maybe I should go to Sweden where they stored a lot of seeds? in a deep vault. Or I could just collect canned foods. Where would be the warmest and sunniest region? I'm thinking of the Pacific area.

[discovery1]

Don't worry about it, its all under control.

What was that James Bond movie where SPECTER steals a nukes and wants to hold a city ransom? Since that's basically the plan only bigger.

[Viking]

Uh, one in 50? That's a 2% chance, right? How big is this asteroid, and should we be worried?

I'm unable to find a reliable source for this; NASA (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html) hasn't updated it yet anyhow. By the way, according to the article it is 1 in 450, and not 1 in 50. That's 0.0022 %.

It's size is 250 meters. If it's impact energy is indeed 400 megaton, then that is compared to the Tsar Bomba (50 MT) 8 times as powerful. The effects of the impact are 100% dependant upon whether it lands in the ocean or on land. If it lands on a continent the effects will only be regional I assume.

This might be the path of possible impacts; no idea about it's accuracy.

https://img168.imageshack.us/img168/5049/2037apophispathofriskeq2.jpg

[Sigurd]

[...] Maybe I should go to Sweden where they stored a lot of seeds? in a deep vault.
Those eggheads in Canada should be ashamed of themselves. Letting a 13 year old whop their ***es like that.. :beam:

[Raz]

Speaking of James Bond... That map reminds me of Goldeneye's targeting system... :grin2:
Anyway, I just find it funny how NASA could stuff things up so badly. Like remember when they forgot to take all of the foam packaging off of the shuttle? And now they thought that an asteroid only had a one in 45,000 chance of hitting earth and are corrected by a 13 year old.

[JAG]

The worst place for it to hit would be the great forests of Russia, surely? Super, duper big problems if it hits there.

[Raz]

The worst place for it to hit would be the great forests of Russia, surely? Super, duper big problems if it hits there.
What's there? Some drug-lab that feeds the Eastern Bloc?
Jokes, jokes... :sweatdrop:

[macsen rufus]

1 in 450, and not 1 in 50. That's 0.0022 %.


:no: That's 0.22%....

but even so, I think it's time to start my "End Times" cult, hmmm 'Church of Apophis the Redeemer', anyone? Only those who convert and buy themselves into my asteroid-proof bunker will survive, it has been revealed by my re-interpretation of ancient Egyptian Heiroglyphics and confirmed by a secret anagram of the true name of the last head of the Templar Order :beam:

[JAG]

What's there? Some drug-lab that feeds the Eastern Bloc?
Jokes, jokes... :sweatdrop:

Ha, I was thinking more along the lines of 20% of the worlds trees destroyed, and a fire that would never end, enough smoke to blot out the sun, but that's just me. :p

[Viking]

:no: That's 0.22%....


Ooops..... :wall:


0.22% is an unconfortably high propability although not as high as what the initial observations in 2004 suggested (2.7 %)


That said, no reliable sources as of yet. Now that is weird.. :inquisitive:

[Beirut]

Those eggheads in Canada should be ashamed of themselves. Letting a 13 year old whop their ***es like that.. :beam:

What did we do now? :inquisitive:

Man, I was just sitting here having a couple of nice breakfast beers with the wife and kids and Joe Norway comes along and blames the end of the world on us again.

Shouldn't you be out fishing for sardines or something?

[Husar]

breakfast beers with the wife and kids
Aren't your kids too young for beer? :inquisitive:

Concerning the asteroid: Deus Io Vult! :end:

Does that qualify me for your group, macsen?

[macsen rufus]

Does that qualify me for your group, macsen?

It's a good start, but there's a few books to buy first, then I'll consider you for the Inner Circle when I've checked the $ize of your contribution$ to Church fund$ :laugh4:

[Sigurd]

What did we do now? :inquisitive:
Shouldn't you be out fishing for sardines or something?
Sorry no, I am too busy putting seeds into the swedish vault on ... on ... damn, where did they put that vault anyways :dizzy2:

[Andres]

Sorry no, I am too busy putting seeds into the swedish vault on ... on ... damn, where did they put that vault anyways :dizzy2:

Ok, ok, Mister Fafnesbane.

The vault is in Norway.

I never realised before that Norway was part of Sweden :stupido2:
:creep:

[Louis VI the Fat]

Ok, ok, Mister Fafnesbane.

The vault is in Norway.Please, Andres, don't give in to this sort of petty regionalism. I don't care what the Catalunians, the Scots, the Norwegians and whoever else say. I am sure they are all fine, distinct cultures within their own right. But I refuse to indulge every petty provincial wish out there to be named as a seperate entity at all times. They should learn that to the eyes of the big outside world, they are simply a part of a greater whole. To us, they are simply 'Spanish', 'British' or 'Swedish'.

FFS, bunch of petty regionalists. All of them. Sheesh. :shame:

[Viking]

No reports about this anywhere else but news orgs. that refer to the German article. The whole story is most likely bollocks.



Ok, ok, Mister Fafnesbane.

The vault is in Norway.

Actually, it lies on Svalbard, which is 1/1000 Norwegian, 1/10000 Russian and 9/10 barren waste.

[Sigurd]

Actually, it lies on Svalbard, which is 1/1000 Norwegian, 1/10000 Russian and 9/10 barren waste.
Andres is not completely wrong. Svalbard (http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard_Treaty) has been a part of the Norwegian kingdom since 1925. Even Russia acknowledge this.

[Viking]

Andres is not completely wrong. Svalbard (http://http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svalbard_Treaty) has been a part of the Norwegian kingdom since 1925. Even Russia acknowledge this.

That I know, but saying that it lies in Norway seems unaccurate to me :juggle2:

[drone]

So let me get this straight. Lots of beach front real estate becomes available nearby, and global warming is halted. What's the downside?

[Banquo's Ghost]

No reports about this anywhere else but news orgs. that refer to the German article. The whole story is most likely bollocks.
:yes:


Apparently so (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/).

[Adrian II]

The whole story is most likely bollocks.

Bummer.

Now what's the scoop? https://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9503/hackvw4.gif (https://imageshack.us)

[Watchman]

Our foreign minister got fired from his job only recently - for exchanging a torrent of sleazy text messages with a stripper. True story.
That brighten your day any ? :beam:

[Louis VI the Fat]

The whole story is most likely bollocks.Sure it is...

Dude, first they tried to downplay the chances of this comet hitting earth. And now that they have been found out, they are simply trying to prevent mass panic by suppressing the story.

We're doomed. Face it. :shame:

[Adrian II]

Our foreign minister got fired from his job only recently - for exchanging a torrent of sleazy text messages with a stripper. True story.
That brighten your day any ? :beam:Guess who paid the stripper.

https://img90.imageshack.us/img90/5811/hacklp4.gif (https://imageshack.us)

[Watchman]

So you're the tabloid guy she sold the story to ? Cool !

...if you take requests, try to get the PM ousted next. He annoys the snot out of me. :shame:

[Adrian II]

...if you take requests, try to get the PM ousted next.Hey, I'm on it.
https://img187.imageshack.us/img187/2428/hack2cu7.gif (https://imageshack.us)

[Watchman]

Capital. :2thumbsup:

[Adrian II]

Capital. :2thumbsup:Another all-nighter. What else is new?

https://img181.imageshack.us/img181/2484/hack3zk6.gif (https://imageshack.us)

[Ice]

Oh my bad. I don't know why I thought it was 1 and 50. 1 and 450 doesn't seem as bad.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

Another all-nighter. What else is new?


The times I'm on the forum don't change whether I'm in Canada or Germany - even with a six-hour time difference.

:dizzy2:


EDIT: What I mean is that if I'm on at...oh, nevermind. You get it. If you don't, I'm not sure I do. Ugh. Nights. Time for bed.

[Viking]

:yes:


Apparently so (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/).


And finally it is official:


RELEASE : 08-103 NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations WASHINGTON -- The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.

Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.

This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.

Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/apr/HQ_08103_student_asteroid_calculations.html

:whip:

[macsen rufus]

It's a cover up! They're just trying to get the cat back in the bag to stop people panicking and engaging in an End Times orgy of wantonness and destruction. We're doomed, I tell you, only prayers* offered to Apophis can save us from total destruction!

* ritual dictates that all such prayers must be written on the rear of blank, signed cheques and forwarded to the Church of Apophis the Redeemer, PO BOX $$$, The Bunker, Area 51, New Mexico.

For more details read "The Apophis Conspiracy: How NASA are hiding the truth about the imminent end of the world!" only $666.66 from all New Age bookshops now.

[Gregoshi]

...For more details read "The Apophis Conspiracy: How NASA are hiding the truth about the imminent end of the world!" only $666.66 from all New Age bookshops now.

:laugh4: I'll take one. Are you able to make change for a 900 dollar bill?

[macsen rufus]

:laugh4: I think I can rustle up enough nine-bob notes :2thumbsup: