USA/Cuba Normalize Relations

[HopAlongBunny]

The end times must be upon us.
The fall of the Berlin Wall almost made a believer of me, this development simply nails it:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/18/us-cuba-usa-gross-idUSKBN0JV1H520141218?feedType=nl&feedName=usmorningdigest

In the context of US politics, I really have a hard time understanding this.
The move is reasonable, rational and long overdue; exactly the sort of thing the American political scene seems to avoid like the plague.
If the Pope indeed had a hand in engineering this event, he has my vote for sainthood; miracle? (check)!

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I rarely find myself in full agreement with an Obama administration policy initiative. He said that after 5 decades of something that had not generated change, it was time to do something else. I have to agree.

There will be, I predict, an easing of some of the sanctions as well.

There will be backlash, particularly in Florida, that will cost the DEMs votes. But the Cuban-American bloc is starting to be outvoted even in Florida by the Puerto Rican and Central American descent groups. Florida will likely go GOP next general election, but the backlash will fade after that.

I have long believed that interaction is far more likely to tear apart the Castro regime than was an embargo.

[Gilrandir]

I rarely find myself in full agreement with an Obama administration policy initiative. He said that after 5 decades of something that had not generated change, it was time to do something else.
Do you mean he lifted the Cuban embargo to allow the next one (i.e. the Russian) to last five decades?

[Fragony]

This might get complicated.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Do you mean he lifted the Cuban embargo to allow the next one (i.e. the Russian) to last five decades?

Unlikely. It is far easier to ignore the economic value of a nation smaller than Florida whose primary export is fine tobacco than it is to ignore a G-10 sized economy (at least this week) whose primary export is one of the most valued commodities in modern economics.

On the other hand, the sanctions imposed on Russia -- coupled with the drop in fossil fuel consumption -- seems to have had a for more direct impact on the Russian economy.

Cuba had crap before our embargo with their sugar industry undercut and any number of other sun-belt countries willing to supply party cities. We didn't change that equation much for them at all.

The current kerfluffle with the Russians will not last 5 decades. We will hem and haw for a while yet, but eventually we will "agree to disagree" about Crimea and go back to more or less normal relations.

[Husar]

This is good news.

Finally Americans may be able to buy Havana Club rum and Cubans may get more internets. :2thumbsup:

[drone]

But we were this close to bringing down the Castros!


Long overdue, but I don't see a GOP-controlled Congress ending the embargo anytime soon. Rubio about had an aneurysm.

[Husar]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/17/marco-rubio-cuba-obama_n_6342348.html

Hahaha, Mr. Rubio, have you ever heard of, say, China?
If trade helps bad regimes stay alive, why is there no trade embargo on China?
You'd think by the amount of trade going on between the USA and China, congress is actually supporting the Chinese regime.

Also found this, apparently from end of September:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7hZjNO3I-Q

[Kadagar_AV]

I was so happy when I read about this in the news... A step forward for the US...

it's about time, this millenium has more or less only shown the US take steps backwards... Generally into dogpiles...

And the stench reach all the way to here :no:

[Papewaio]

Trade sanctions have a disproportionate impact on the people in the street not the leadership.

Cuba and North Korea show that even long term sanctions do not cause regime change. North Korean leadership in fact are probably more secure without the pesky problem of open trade showing how much better the rest of the world live.

I do wonder though if Russia talk with Cuba about putting in a nuclear missile defence shield if Cuba would be annexed... /s

[Crandar]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/17/marco-rubio-cuba-obama_n_6342348.html

Hahaha, Mr. Rubio, have you ever heard of, say, China?
China didn't nationalize any American business interests, like that bloodthirsty jerk, Fidel Castro did. During the Pimp Era, sugar and tobacco were allowed to happily join the world of free trade.

[Husar]

China didn't nationalize any American business interests, like that bloodthirsty jerk, Fidel Castro did. During the Pimp Era, sugar and tobacco were allowed to happily join the world of free trade.

People shouldn't have possessions in countries other than their own anyway, it's a modern form of colonialism.

[Gilrandir]

But we were this close to bringing down the Castros!

Correction: we have been these fifty years this close...:laugh4:

[Papewaio]

People shouldn't have possessions in countries other than their own anyway, it's a modern form of colonialism.

Best way to break myopic nationalism is to have mutual foreign interests.

The new MAD is mutual assured debt. Just look at what is/will happen as Russia trips over, it will send shockwaves through the world stock markets and will either goes a big worldwide down turn or others will see it as an opportunity and markets will go up.

[Don Corleone]

Good move, regardless of the motivations. The research I've done on this over the years seemed to indicate that the Castros benefitted somewhat (and the expat community in Florida hugely) from the embargo, due to limited access to the global currency markets.

As others have said, this embargo was disproportionately hurting the wider population, not the leadership. Glad to see it going. I think the GOP will bluster a lot but in the end not do much.