I've noticed over the years that certain predictors and prognosticators are consistently, persistently wrong. They seem to pay no price for being wrong, however, and they continue to be quoted, published, and generally treated as if they weren't complete and total idiots. Why is this?
The prime example would be Rob Enderle, the man who declared that open source was "a scam" that "doesn't contribute to anything." He famously championed Mormon shell corporation SCO when it was attempting to sue Linux, claiming repeatedly that SCO had a great case and would win any minute now. He kept bloviating along these lines pretty much up until SCO was sold for scrap metal. But read any tech column in a major magazine or newspaper, and you will see they continue to hit the Robster up for quotes.
Then there's the Apple naysayers, the folks who predict death and dismemberment for every Cupertino product. No penalty. This gem got dredged up recently:
The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant. [...] The mobile-phone industry is becoming a cozy cartel between the network operators and a limited range of manufacturers. It could certainly use a fresh blast of competition from an industry outsider.
Again, no penalty. Lynn is still out there, getting paid to be wrong.
It may come -- but probably from an entrepreneurial start-up somewhere. How about phones with fewer gadgets but better at making calls? Or with never-ending batteries? Or chargers that don't weigh three times as much as the phone?
It won't come from the iPhone. Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry.
I suppose this phenomenon exists in political writing as well, but some days it seems to this lemur that the tech writing world is particularly immune to accuracy in prognostication.
What do Orgahs think? Should the Enderles of this world pay a price? What should that price be? Do you have any writers or opinionators who are consistently, epically wrong? (No fair bringing up John Dvorak, he's a parody of himself at this late stage.)
