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A Su 24 was shot down by Turkish F-16 fighters last night after supposedly breaching Turkish airspace. The Kremlin states that they are certain the plane was flying only over Syria. The two pilots catapulted, one is reputedly in the hands of the syrian rebels.
Shit. This is bad, really bad.
Expected by all sides I imagine - the current situation in Syria is a complete mess with different factions fighting different factions.
All parties appear to be talking and so far no cruise missiles have been launched at Istambul or other similar acts of insanity.
Russians tend to be hard-headed strategists and they have far more to gain by focussing on Syria and Ukraine than directly starting trouble with NATO.
I imagine that the PKK might be getting more intel / supplies than up until now.
~:smoking:
Yeah, Turkey is really oversensitive, when it comes to airspace violations. That's why they violate our airspace on a daily basis since the 90s, with the result of shot down aircraft and dead pilots.
No sympathies for the Turkmen, almost all of them are Al-Nusra affiliates and have ethnically cleansed Northern Syria from religious minorities.
One of the Russian pilots is dead. Be warned that a dead body is shown in the video:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=425_1448360570
What are they saying in the video? I caught "mujahideen" a few times...
And some Allah u Akbars hear and there...
Turkmeni rebels are mainly extremists. Not the softcore porn of FSA, but really extremists. Not officially integrated into Al-Nusra, but they are her most loyal allies.
The Turkmens outside Syria (Uzbekis, Tajikis) are one of the most prominent recruitment pools of ISIL and Al-Nusra.
Tajiks are not neither Turkish nor Turkmen in any way at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
Not necesarily, Nato has no obligations if a member-state strikes first. This is Turkey's problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by rvg
They kinda deserve a problem lately.
Downing of a jet is a minor diplomatic issue. A dead body is what is problematic. If the plane was indeed in Syria, and the pilot murdered by the Turkmens, it could get ugly really quickly.
Both pilots are dead, machine-gunned by the Turkmens, while landing with their parachutes.
Now, Putin will be forced to make a retaliatory act for symbolic and PR reasons, but I wouldn't expect anything excessive.
I don't share your optimism, gunning down parachutees is a really unaccceptable war-crime, in a you just don't do that kinda way. This is going to be a developing story.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
That doesn't sound too bad, Crandar is probably right in expecting nothing exsessiveQuote:
Originally Posted by Greyblades
War crime?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony
They are soldiers who had not surrendered. They are fair game.
~:smoking:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attacks_on_parachutists
How can you tell that an enemy combatant in the process of descent has surrendered?Quote:
Attacking persons parachuting from an aircraft in distress is a war crime under Protocol I in addition to the 1949 Geneva Conventions. However, it is not prohibited under this Protocol to open fire on airborne troops who are descending by parachutes, even if their aircraft is in distress.[1]
If they don't have a parachute.
I guess this will have a lot of loud and aggressive diplomacy as a consequence, but Russia won't bomb Turkey, I'm quite sure.
I'll be playing some more Fallout for practice, just in case my prediction is wrong...
They won't bomb Turkey, but Turkmens just became fair game, which is gonna piss off Erdogan even more.
"They are soldiers who had not surrendered. They are fair game." Nope. They are the air equivalent of sailors abandoning sinking ships. War crime it is according to Article 42 of Protocol I of Geneva Conventions.
We are living interesting times...
Shot by rebels - not the state. I don't think that one can have "War crimes" without either a war or a defined enemy.
~:smoking:
"Shot by rebels " Yeap. That is why Putin will be able to do whatever he well, if not want, can... And Turkey won't be happy.
I wouldn't be surprised id the Kurds would finally received the heavy equipment they are crying for, and some AA missile for the next time Turkish bomber crossed the Iraqis' borders...
Russians also lost a rescue chopper to the rebel fire... and they keep insisting that the plane was shot down in Syrian airspace. This has serious potential of getting very ugly.Quote:
Originally Posted by I of the Storm
The aircraft was shot down in Syria, that's something that is even admitted by the War Ministry of Erdogan. Their claim is that they launched the missile, when the Russians dared to violate their precious airspace for seven seconds.
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cps...t_down_624.png
Rebels are the officially recognized representatives of Syria by the West.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Therefore, they are going to be punished rightfully according to their fanboys and not so rightfully but much more enjoyably by their enemies.
It's a pity, the Turkmens were such gentlemen:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessab
I'm sorry but I'm laughing because this is completely retarded.
And people wonder why I'd rather run away than fight in a conflict spawned by such retardedness...
If the Turkish missile was launched after the Russian plane left Turkish airspace, then this is a casus belli.Quote:
Originally Posted by Crandar
That would really make it interesting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brenus
First reaction from other NATO countries is - we're washing our hands off this, it's Turkey's problem. We'll see how it goes.
In the nineties, NATO maintained that all Serbian rebels in Bosnia in Croatia could be tried for war crimes if committed. Also leadership of Serbia proper. Even though those were three separate political organizations, US/NATO argued that they were supported and instructed by Belgrade and that by extension, Serbian leaders were all guilty.Quote:
Originally Posted by rory_20_uk
Applying that standard, Erdogan is a war criminal.
I'm pretty sure there's no way to determine if the missile was launched within the 7 seconds Russian airplane was in Turkish airspace. Which is probably good, as it allows Russia a face saving excuse not to push it. If it were possible to confirm that, Russia would be pressured to react more strongly.Quote:
Originally Posted by rvg
Interesting conspiracy theory is that Turkey is especially angry as Russian planes are routinely destroying oil transports and refineries, and Turkey, together with Gulf states, is the main outlet for ISIS/Al Nusra oil.
I was going write something about an automated missile, then I remembered this plan was shot down by F-16's in air-to-air combat. Or air-to-air shanking, if you prefer.
So now I'm thinking the Russians were probably warned that they were approaching Turkish Airspace and decided to thumb the Turks by just skimming through it, and the Turks fired. It's entirely possible that the missile could have been launched within that 7-second time frame, at which point it was probably brown trousers all around.
The Russians have been playing silly sods with everyone else's air-space for a while now, it was just a matter of time before someone shot one of their planes down, and whilst the European powers might say "They didn't actually cross into our airspace, honest guv," the Turks appear less inclined to mess about.
I hear a Russian marine died during the recovery op, too. So, the rebels are clearly morons if they thought they could get away with this. On the other hand, we have Russian planes in a war zone supporting the enemies of the guys we're supporting in the same warzone...
So - Now that WWIII is in the offing what regiment are you guys thinking?
I'm hoping for SigInt but I'd take artillery. Fingers crossed I get posted to the Romanian Front, pretty girls, good food everything's cheap if you're paid in Sterling.
What they say is their airspace isn't internationally recognised, it's a zone of 5 kilometers they say it's theirs. Turkey is in trouble diplomatcly and it really wouldn't have to be that way. Really stupid action.
IMO it's an unwise overreaction. Looking at the flightpath the SU was taking a shortcut of 7 seconds over that little appendix of turkish airspace protruding into Syria, while probably being in a combat situation.
Would've been better to just let it go and call in the russian ambassador afterwards. Moral high ground etc.
Fortunately, I'm too old for front line duty. Unless things go bad quickly and we'll have to reinstitute the Volkssturm...
That airspace isn't even theirs, it isn't internationallu recognised as such, Turkey just claims it is theirs but it isn't. Turkey is in trouble, Russia doesn't play niceQuote:
Originally Posted by I of the Storm
Russia says all of its bombers will be flying with fighter escort and missile cruiser Moskva will be actively deployed to counter any threats, in addition to more land based AA.
There may be a few F16 downed if Turkey tries to repeat this.
I've never heard this. Where did you read that?Quote:
Originally Posted by Fragony