Ukraine-in-a-thread

The stuff that is happening around Novoazovsk, a town near the Russian border, is pretty exceptional. There should not be any insurgents anywhere near the town, yet they have been shelling the western outskirts of it (according to later reports: even overrun it).

With the confirmation that Ukrainian forces have captured regular Russian troops inside Ukraine, one wonders whether what is seen now is a last-ditch effort and a sign of desperation or a part of a steady escalation from the Russian side.

After I posted that, reports from Reuters about green men in the eastern village of Kolosky came in:

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Unidentified, heavily-armed strangers with Russian accents have appeared in an eastern Ukrainian village, arousing residents' suspicions despite Moscow's denials that its troops have deliberately infiltrated the frontier.

Two witnesses told Reuters on Tuesday that the dozens of men, who arrived at the weekend and set up a road block, were not local and had military ration packs marked with Russian writing.

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Another witness, Alexei, who was in Kolosky on Monday, said that the armed men, when asked who they were, told residents only that they had come "to protect them".

That was an answer given by Russian military officers after they first seized state buildings in Crimea.

"It looks like direct invasion," said Alexei.

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What is new here?

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Originally Posted by rvg

This is for the Russian readers/speakers. A Belarus newspaper shows a lovely compilation of Russian propaganda...

Classic Goebbels.

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Wat?

Is on the Ukrainian side in this conflict?

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

What is new here?

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Until now, there have been no reliable reports about potential regular Russian troops ('little green men') operating inside Ukraine.

It's also a first that there is solid evidence for insurgents creating new fronts far away from their frontline positions, presumably by attacking from Russia (in fact, it might be the first time I've seen that kind of claim, reliable or not - all the previous claims about attacks from Russia happened near existing rebel frontlines).

All in all, a significant escalation as it means that a lot of the previous plausible deniability disappears with this apparent shift in strategy.

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Originally Posted by Viking

Until now, there have been no reliable reports about potential regular Russian troops ('little green men') operating inside Ukraine.

It's also a first that there is solid evidence for insurgents creating new fronts far away from their frontline positions, presumably by attacking from Russia (in fact, it might be the first time I've seen that kind of claim, reliable or not - all the previous claims about attacks from Russia happened near existing rebel frontlines).

All in all, a significant escalation as it means that a lot of the previous plausible deniability disappears with this apparent shift in strategy.

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Either the Russians are getting sloppy, or they're trying to prop the Rebels up directly. The first seems unlikely and the latter pointless given the grip the Ukrainian army has on the conflict now. The only way to turn it around is a full-scale invasion from Russia.

If Putin calculates he can make such an incursion with no real pretext and no diplomatic cover - well - I would say that the West would have to move to a hostile footing, if not directly confront Putin.

This post could also be entitled "I told you so".

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Originally Posted by Husar

I also took a basic Russian course last semester, there are more people who can read Cyrillic than one might think! ~D

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One doesn't need to know Cyrillic to read this one:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/wo...aine.html?_r=0
Is it only me or the New York Times is also being sensationalist and full of propaganda trying to demonize the separatists?

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Originally Posted by Viking

The stuff that is happening around Novoazovsk, a town near the Russian border, is pretty exceptional. There should not be any insurgents anywhere near the town, yet they have been shelling the western outskirts of it (according to later reports: even overrun it).

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The shelling of numerous Ukrainain border posts even far from the actual fighting zone from within Russia has been going on for a month at least. Now you see confirmations coming from elsewhere not just from me. The latest news bearing on it: the Ukrainain military claim that for the first time aviation was used against the border guards in Krasna Talivka. Two Russian helicopters Mi-24 fired missiles killing four of them.
http://kp.ua/politics/467453-rossyis...kov-est-ubytye

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Originally Posted by Viking

With the confirmation that Ukrainian forces have captured regular Russian troops inside Ukraine, one wonders whether what is seen now is a last-ditch effort and a sign of desperation or a part of a steady escalation from the Russian side.

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I would opt for the latter. It is evidently done to strengthen Putin's position at negotiations in Minsk.

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Originally Posted by Viking

Until now, there have been no reliable reports about potential regular Russian troops ('little green men') operating inside Ukraine.

All in all, a significant escalation as it means that a lot of the previous plausible deniability disappears with this apparent shift in strategy.

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Does anyone still believe Russia's subterfuges like the claims that Russian paratrooper division on vehicles "was lost while patrolling the border" so much that found itself 20 km from this very border on the Ukrainian territory? The captured soldiers themselves claim that they were having an exercise, not patrolling the border.
http://news.liga.net/video/politics/...esantnikov.htm
Anyway, border guards, not paratroopers are supposed to patrol the border, aren't they?

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

Either the Russians are getting sloppy, or they're trying to prop the Rebels up directly. The first seems unlikely and the latter pointless given the grip the Ukrainian army has on the conflict now. The only way to turn it around is a full-scale invasion from Russia.

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The latest reports from the war zone are far from optimistic (for Ukranians, I mean). Ukrainian army seems to have stopped the offensive and is only defending the positions it is holding. A significant group of Ukrainians was surrounded near Ilovaysk. The new fighting spot in the south (Novoazovsk) is drawing away attention and needs strengthening. Mariupol was panick-stricken yesterday when the rumours of Russian tanks moving to it were spread.
I would say that Russian reinforcements of professional millitary saved separatists for the moment and start saying a weighty word in the war which now seems far from being won by Ukraine.

Putin wants to secure good holdings for the negotiations. It would seem indeed true that there seems to be fresh Russian airborne units in Eastern Ukraine.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

One doesn't need to know Cyrillic to read this one:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/wo...aine.html?_r=0
Is it only me or the New York Times is also being sensationalist and full of propaganda trying to demonize the separatists?

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It's the New York Times, of course it is full of propaganda.
Even the Republicans in the US think it is a horribly biased liberal pinko rag that has an agenda.
There are even US institutions spreading propaganda from inside Ukraine, to think NATO or the US have no bias against Russia is quite funny.

Here is a good overview over events hinting at Russian paras being involved in the Ukrainian conflict (unfortunately it is in Russian, though):
http://tvrain.ru/articles/chto_sluch...ozhdja-374606/

And the fighting in Novoazovsk is indeed 'special', as the fighters there appeared far away from the actual separatist positions and opened a new front - in other words, it is very obvious, that they simply drove across the border.

I would say, the Russian try to keep a foot in the door. Kyiv was hoping to beat the separatist in the field and then start negotiations/reconcilement as a political process inside Ukraine. Moscow is trying to prevent this, as it wants to be at the table of negotiations in order to shape the future of Ukraine according to its interests.

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Originally Posted by HoreTore

Wat?

Is on the Ukrainian side in this conflict?

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Que? Not sure what you mean there, but the if you look through the list of photos in that article you'll see that Russian media plucks photos of various atrocities from across the globe (Bosnia, Syria, Chechnya, etc.) and tries to pass those off as the deeds of the Ukrainian military in the current conflict.

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Originally Posted by Husar

It's the New York Times, of course it is full of propaganda.
Even the Republicans in the US think it is a horribly biased liberal pinko rag that has an agenda.
There are even US institutions spreading propaganda from inside Ukraine, to think NATO or the US have no bias against Russia is quite funny.

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So the picture is fake and the information is incorrect?

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Originally Posted by GenosseGeneral

Here is a good overview over events hinting at Russian paras being involved in the Ukrainian conflict (unfortunately it is in Russian, though):
http://tvrain.ru/articles/chto_sluch...ozhdja-374606/

And the fighting in Novoazovsk is indeed 'special', as the fighters there appeared far away from the actual separatist positions and opened a new front - in other words, it is very obvious, that they simply drove across the border.

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Ukrainian RNBO reports of the separatiats capturing Starobeshevo and Russian military detachments spotted in Amvrosiyevka and setting up their headquarters in the village of Pobeda. It seems the southern front is opened.

A captured Serbian mercenary claims that they have been cheated as to the character of mission and payment.
http://podrobnosti.ua/podrobnosti/20...23/990234.html
He didn't seem to expect to encounter "a real war" and didn't receive the promised money.

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Originally Posted by rvg

Que? Not sure what you mean there, but the if you look through the list of photos in that article you'll see that Russian media plucks photos of various atrocities from across the globe (Bosnia, Syria, Chechnya, etc.) and tries to pass those off as the deeds of the Ukrainian military in the current conflict.

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Probably Hore Tore is surprised that a Belorussian newspaper sides with Ukraine in the conflict. Yet I may be wrong.

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Originally Posted by Husar

It's the New York Times, of course it is full of propaganda.
Even the Republicans in the US think it is a horribly biased liberal pinko rag that has an agenda.
There are even US institutions spreading propaganda from inside Ukraine, to think NATO or the US have no bias against Russia is quite funny.

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So Russian troops aren't in Ukraine right now?

Come on Husar - the Ukrainian government may not be a college of saints, but the evidence on the ground is damning now. Russia started this conflict when they first annexed Crimea and then prevaricated over explicitely rejecting the rebels in the east. Now we fine paratroopers (not infantry) wandering around Ukraine and a new front has opened up.

I suppose you continue to maintain that the new armour isn't coming from Russia too?

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

Now we fine paratroopers (not infantry) wandering around Ukraine and a new front has opened up.

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Russian paratroopers are extremely well at losing themselves in any steppes (both of Eastern Ukraine now and of Crimea in March).

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

I suppose you continue to maintain that the new armour isn't coming from Russia too?

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You wouldn't believe what a variety of weapons one can buy at Ukrainain supermarkets.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

So the picture is fake and the information is incorrect?

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I don't even think they write in true latin characters and arabic numbers.

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Originally Posted by Husar

I don't even think they write in true latin characters and arabic numbers.

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Behind all verbal frolicking and there-is-not-enough-proof/it-is-not-officially-admitted/it-is-just-propaganda statements I see evading giving direct answers to such questions:
Did the separatists bring down the Malaysian plane? (yes/no)
Does Russia supply the separatists with weapons and ammo? (yes/no)
Are there Russian regular army troops in Ukraine? (yes/no)
Do the separatists maltreat (to put it mildly) dissidents and prisoners? (yes/no)
Can Russia stop the havoc any time it wishes? (yes/no)
I believe you as well as other people deep inside have opted for this or that answer to such questions.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

Behind all verbal frolicking and there-is-not-enough-proof/it-is-not-officially-admitted/it-is-just-propaganda statements I see evading giving direct answers to such questions:
Did the separatists bring down the Malaysian plane? (yes/no)
Does Russia supply the separatists with weapons and ammo? (yes/no)
Are there Russian regular army troops in Ukraine? (yes/no)
Do the separatists maltreat (to put it mildly) dissidents and prisoners? (yes/no)
Can Russia stop the havoc any time it wishes? (yes/no)
I believe you as well as other people deep inside have opted for this or that answer to such questions.

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Or the other answer. Which is "How the **** would I know?"
But I gave a very public answer on my thoughts about at least one of those questions.

I have no big problems to just think thatboth sides are lying a lot and the truth is probably somewhere in between/much worse.
The only thing that I find astounding is that the rebels were able to hold out this long and if the Russian army is actively supporting them in huge numbers I would have expected several tons of proof by now, such as production numbers of tanks that were never owned by Ukraine or something like that. Especially given that the Ukrainian army is apparently winning and gaining ground most of the time, so they should have access to all those battlefields, the wrecks and the bodies. I can't do much with greasy pictures from 1980s cameras and words written by people who have a stake in promoting a certain story.

Do you also just read Hamas press reports because Israeli ones are biased and think you get an accurate picture of the situation?
Or do you just read Israeli press reports because Hamas are biased and think you get an accurate picture of the situation?

I find the two conflicts similar because I find it hard to believe either side in both of them. That doesn't mean I hate anyone or want anyone to die, it just means that I wait and see what happens, maybe one day there will be more clarity or maybe not.

After all we also found out that Hitler was an almost-vegetarian and that makes vegetarians just like him, it just takes time and research to find out the truth about some issues.

For all I know the answer to most of your questions may be yes, but it could also be no, and I could add ones such as:
Does the Ukrainian army use neo-nazi death squads as seen in a video? (y/n)
Does the Ukrainian army shoot at ambulances as seen in a video? (y/n)

Quite frankly, desperate people do desperate things and I would have preferred a different solution than civil war in the first place.

CNN is saying Russian soldiers are invading directly;
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/28/world/...sis/index.html

I'll guess we'll see if Europe has any stomach to support democracy (via hard sanctions on Russia) if it means harming trade.

CR

CR's article from CNN worries me. I really don't want a possible full on war with Russia.

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Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name

CR's article from CNN worries me. I really don't want a possible full on war with Russia.

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We should have deployed against Russia earlier this year - if not in 2008 when Putin invaded Georgia.

Appeasement. Doesn't. Work.

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Originally Posted by Husar

The only thing that I find astounding is that the rebels were able to hold out this long and if the Russian army is actively supporting them in huge numbers I would have expected several tons of proof by now, such as production numbers of tanks that were never owned by Ukraine or something like that. Especially given that the Ukrainian army is apparently winning and gaining ground most of the time, so they should have access to all those battlefields, the wrecks and the bodies. I can't do much with greasy pictures from 1980s cameras and words written by people who have a stake in promoting a certain story.

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Well, that is precisely what has changed over the last days. While Ukrainian forces were quite successfully after the fall of Slovyansk and made a lot of progress (encircling Donetsk, most notably), since sunday tides have turned: After the premier of te DPR announced a counterattack with Mariupol as its goal, something nobody took serious at that moment, Ukrainian forces came under serious pressure. A notable number of fighters (several Special Battaillons) are encirclednin Ilovaisk. At the same time, the attack against Novoazovsk started. Where did all those fresh forces come from? To me it is clear: They came from Russian military bases. And not only as 'volunteers', but as units of the Russian military.

Even giving Ukraine NATO's army surplus- or selling it at a steep discount - would have helped them a lot.

Russian meddling should be met with more Eastern countries getting closer to NATO - so they learn not to do it again. Russia wants to get into a hot war with the West less than we do as right on their other border they have their bestest mates China who has no interest whatsoever in annexing any territory...

But Germany needs to keep warm, and France is building two Helicopter carriers...

~:smoking:

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Originally Posted by Husar

Or the other answer. Which is "How the **** would I know?"

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I said not of knowing things but of an attitude one has before (or even without) having full knowledge (if such a thing exists) of an issue. It determines a lot what kind of proof one would try to search for and which of the proof one would/wouldn't believe no matter how reliable/unreliable the sources are. If one adopts an attitude "no one is right/wrong in the matter" then no further developments (no matter how much proof is offered) will sway it either way.

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Originally Posted by Husar

The only thing that I find astounding is that the rebels were able to hold out this long and if the Russian army is actively supporting them in huge numbers I would have expected several tons of proof by now, such as production numbers of tanks that were never owned by Ukraine or something like that. Especially given that the Ukrainian army is apparently winning and gaining ground most of the time, so they should have access to all those battlefields, the wrecks and the bodies. I can't do much with greasy pictures from 1980s cameras and words written by people who have a stake in promoting a certain story.

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As for rebels holding out long - the answer is simple: a couple of months ago Ukraine had no army to speak of. It is astounding for me that it has appeared in such a short time. But as further developments tend to show it is still no match for the Russian one in terms of management, supply, weapons and so on. Unfortunately, there is no time to get even or at least to progress significantly to stop the Russians.
As for the proofs, they are there with log books and painted over tank numbers and weapons' packing documents and other things. Perhaps they have not filtered to the western sources but the attitude like "I wouldn't believe that there are mercenaries until a see a person receiving money according to a pay roll entitled MERCENARIES" would prevent you from believing any.

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Originally Posted by Husar

Do you also just read Hamas press reports because Israeli ones are biased and think you get an accurate picture of the situation?
Or do you just read Israeli press reports because Hamas are biased and think you get an accurate picture of the situation?

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Even if we put together pro-Hamas and pro-Israeli propaganda it is unlikely to rival the Russian one.

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Originally Posted by Husar

Quite frankly, desperate people do desperate things and I would have preferred a different solution than civil war in the first place.

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If in spring one (not me, though) could still believe that it looked like a civil conflict in which locals expressed their desire to separate from the central government in Kyiv, now the separatists don't even pretend they act on behalf of the angry locals - they capture cities and towns in which DPR was not proclaimed or was not supported by the majority of population. To me it is clear that from the inception Russia has been the chief meddler and instigator in the conflict. And to me it is strange how others don't see it.

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Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name

CR's article from CNN worries me. I really don't want a possible full on war with Russia.

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Don't worry, you will have none. So far the sanctions the West introduced against Russia amounted to:
Wave 1: Now what do you think you are doing?
Wave 2: Will you please stop, will ya?
Wave 3: And now you made us very angry.
Let me guess what wave four would be: no Russian delegation at NATO convention in Wales in September. But Putin as usual has plan B: he will paint Lavrov white from head to foot and send him to Wales as a "humanitarian minister".

Canada is rather cheeky Id say.

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

We should have deployed against Russia earlier this year - if not in 2008 when Putin invaded Georgia.

Appeasement. Doesn't. Work.

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We couldn't spare any troops for deployment in Ukraine, having committed them earlier in Syria to overthrow Assad.

Maybe we can get the Kurds to do it.....

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Maybe we can get the Kurds to do it.....

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The Ukrainians are already doing this effectively. Perhaps too effectively, and that is why Russia is taking a more direct role. Remember Brenus's theory that Russia wants to keep the fighting going, not so much to control Ukraine, but to deny it to NATO. If Ukraine threatens to bring the fighting to an end through complete victory, that theory would require greater effort to keep things going.

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Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla

Appeasement. Doesn't. Work.

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That's pretty obvious.
Nobody has considered the possibility of the appeasement working, in any point of history.