Mafia IX: Triumph of the Mafia [Concluded]

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Originally Posted by Methos

Uh, the vote is still going on, so I'm a bit confused as to your reasoning.

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I believe you did that the previous round?

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Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Chaotix, your so suspicious.

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But he does have a point.

Chaotix seems like the typical early round scape-goat. Renata is supposedly acting scummy but I have never played with her so I don't know. Kage obviously has something against my new avatar. Therefore I will vote: Beefy until he explains why he should be lynched for the greater good.

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Originally Posted by woad&fangs

Chaotix seems like the typical early round scape-goat. Renata is supposedly acting scummy but I have never played with her so I don't know. Kage obviously has something against my new avatar. Therefore I will vote: Beefy until he explains why he should be lynched for the greater good.

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But as an innocent townie, you will keep your hands clean of course...

vote: TinCow

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Originally Posted by woad&fangs

Chaotix seems like the typical early round scape-goat. Renata is supposedly acting scummy but I have never played with her so I don't know. Kage obviously has something against my new avatar. Therefore I will vote: Beefy until he explains why he should be lynched for the greater good.

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I would like to partake in the consumption of whatever hallucinogens this young man has had.

You'd have to change your avatar to a senile old duffer first.

I would just like to add, that upon reading this thread, people seem to be voting in chains, i.e. voting for the last person who voted, I don't know if this is because of there reasoning, if it is then its not a good reason to vote given how little evidence we have, hence why I didn't describe my vote at all, because if I told you why I voted for Tincow I would probably get votes for bad reasoning. :laugh4:

This is what we do for the first 7 rounds. Then we try and figure out who the mafia are.

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Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

This is what we do for the first 7 rounds. Then we try and figure out who the mafia are.

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Yes, Its a matter of gathering information, oh so gradually....

Apologies if I'm over-analyzing things. Since this is the first mafia game I've been in where there are NO pro-town roles... I had a notion that analysis was the only thing we had to go on besides a blind bandwagon. Now that I look at it, I'm just confusing you guys more than helping. :laugh4:

To Renata: Yes, you keep pressing the point that yesterday was not a "runaway" bandwagon. It started as a large bandwagon, and this was khaan's intention, until you came under suspicion, and then, yes, it became a close tie vote. With you only narrowly escaping the lynch, I might add.

Lynch me if you feel you must, but it's not going to help our cause. It will be even less useful than following one of khaan's rather random bandwagons. If you think I'm acting suspicious, look at older games I've been in. This is what I'm like when I "get serious", so to speak. I'm on spring break so I've got a lot of time to devote to this game now... and I intend to help win it for the town. If I can do that better by not using controversial and confusing methods, I suppose I will do that instead.

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Originally Posted by Chaotix

Lynch me if you feel you must, but it's not going to help our cause. It will be even less useful than following one of khaan's rather random bandwagons.

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Why would following you be any more or less random than following khaan? I understand from your perspective you're innocent (or shouldn't be lynched in any case) but I don't know that.

The tiny bit of lazy analysis that I've done so far is that random bandwagons are the hardest to defend against, the hardest to reverse, the hardest to avoid. Khaan is giving almost no reasons, and there aren't any reasons to give, really. If not you, then who? Why not anyone here?

Someone is voting for someone who isn't me, and that's a person who could very well be scum. Why should I not follow? I am certainly not going to follow all game. In fact I may end up voting for Khaan soon enough. But for now, I am prepared to kill anyone he says. How's that for reasons?

And if the mafia don't like that, they can kill me, so my analysis will never be tainted by doubt that I'm innocent.

The problem with random bandwagons is that, no matter how effective they may be (they are very effective at working. Effective at catching scum? Less so.), they are random. Instead of voting for someone because you find him/her suspicious, you are voting someone because someone else said so, because they decided to pick that person at random. There is no "analysis" involved in it at all.

I would think that if the town was actively trying to find the mafia, then we would have a better chance than if we just lynched some person at random every day.

But you'll notice, I'm no longer voting for khaan. He's less important right now, because in all likelihood he's just following an unorthodox school of thought. I am voting for Renata... who opted for the easy vote on me since she wants to keep a low profile after that close tie yesterday.

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Nuh-uh.

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scummy response see if you analyze the secret mafia code you can see...... scum.

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Originally Posted by Chaotix

The problem with random bandwagons is that, no matter how effective they may be (they are very effective at working. Effective at catching scum? Less so.), they are random. Instead of voting for someone because you find him/her suspicious, you are voting someone because someone else said so, because they decided to pick that person at random. There is no "analysis" involved in it at all.

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Analysis can be just as flawed as randomness. And the wonderful thing about random is, it's unbiased... unable to be reasoned with... unable to be decieved... unable to be persuaded. It's also totally fair.

I feel a Harvey Two-Face speech coming up...

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I would think that if the town was actively trying to find the mafia, then we would have a better chance than if we just lynched some person at random every day.

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Let me ask you a question, Chaotix... if that is your real name...

How well do you think we would do if we did indeed lynch a random person every day? In order for the mafia to win, they would have had to have not been selected by random.org every single phase of the game. I don't know about you.... but I think the odds are in our favor. I like them. I like those odds. I especially like those odds in a situation which defies analysis... a situation where, we don't have much to analyze yet. A situation where we could be persuaded and cajoled and threatened into destroying ourselves like lemmings off a cliff. How dangerous is an unpredictable town? How dangerous is one that can be reasoned with, persuaded, threatened, and avoided? The random lynch cannot be avoided, unless luck is on your side. And no one has control over that.

That, is more dangerous to the mafia than your analysis or mine. And perhaps I will change my mind, and crack my knuckles and do some analysis later. But for now, I am decided on the proper course of action. A festival of chaos and vigilante justice... bodies hanging at odd angles... a carousel of death, I see before me! The sheer madness of it all... it makes me smile.

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But you'll notice, I'm no longer voting for khaan. He's less important right now, because in all likelihood he's just following an unorthodox school of thought. I am voting for Renata... who opted for the easy vote on me since she wants to keep a low profile after that close tie yesterday.

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:pumpkin:

If you say so.

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Originally Posted by woad&fangs

Chaotix seems like the typical early round scape-goat. Renata is supposedly acting scummy but I have never played with her so I don't know. Kage obviously has something against my new avatar. Therefore I will vote: Beefy until he explains why he should be lynched for the greater good.

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So I have to explain why I should be lynched?
Well if its for the greater good....

I should be lynched because I don't contribute to town discussion that much.
I often just hop on a bandwagon rather then building my own case.
I'm also acting scummy. I'm one of the suspect as you can see from more then one votes on me.
Its also fun lynching me. Beskar will taunt me. Pizza will protect me. TheFlax will weap for me.
Oh and Secura will take over my identity.

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Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

How well do you think we would do if we did indeed lynch a random person every day? In order for the mafia to win, they would have had to have not been selected by random.org every single phase of the game. I don't know about you.... but I think the odds are in our favor. I like them. I like those odds. I especially like those odds in a situation which defies analysis... a situation where, we don't have much to analyze yet. A situation where we could be persuaded and cajoled and threatened into destroying ourselves like lemmings off a cliff. How dangerous is an unpredictable town? How dangerous is one that can be reasoned with, persuaded, threatened, and avoided? The random lynch cannot be avoided, unless luck is on your side. And no one has control over that.

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I think you are forgetting the possibility that the one operating the random machine could be mafia and might tweak it his favour. :shrug:

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Also:
I'll be gone for the rest of the weekend. I know this kind of messages are frowned upon lately, but there is nothing I can do since I have to work until monday in a place where the internet has not yet been established.

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Originally Posted by Joooray

I think you are forgetting the possibility that the one operating the random machine could be mafia and might tweak it his favour. :shrug:

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I think you underestimate the power of pepperoni! Those who suggest who should be killed must die! You see that way no sane mafia would ever suggest a random lynch! Bwahahahaha!!!

I love this strategy.

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Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

I think you underestimate the power of pepperoni! Those who suggest who should be killed must die! You see that way no sane mafia would ever suggest a random lynch! Bwahahahaha!!!

I love this strategy.

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Yeah, I understand, but in a game like this, were there is no post lynch reveal, how do you judge the success of a lynch. With your logic the one suggesting the lynches would have to get the two mafia within no time. Otherwise he'd be dead meat. But I see, all it needs is pure and heroic commitment to the town cause, so you may be right after all.

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Originally Posted by Beefy187

Oh and Secura will take over my identity.

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:curtain:

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Originally Posted by Joooray

Yeah, I understand, but in a game like this, were there is no post lynch reveal, how do you judge the success of a lynch. With your logic the one suggesting the lynches would have to get the two mafia within no time. Otherwise he'd be dead meat. But I see, all it needs is pure and heroic commitment to the town cause, so you may be right after all.

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How do you judge the success of a lynch? When the game is over with a town victory. :yes: That's pretty much all we have.

Pure and heroic commitment to the town cause is what I'm all about, my friend. Who's afraid of the big bad lynch? Not me!

Ok, then, smart guy.

If you're so committed to these random lynches, then why are you still voting for me on suspicion instead of following the lead of the glorious leader?

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Originally Posted by Chaotix

Ok, then, smart guy.

If you're so committed to these random lynches, then why are you still voting for me on suspicion instead of following the lead of the glorious leader?

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Because you're opposed to random lynches, and I think that's scummy. :tongue2:

What are you hiding?

Well theres two ways of winning classical mafia games.
Monarchy and Democracy.

Good thing about Monarchy is that if our leader is pure and righteous. We have a very good chance of hitting the scum.
Ideally it should be someone dead who has the skill to hunt mafias.
Negative, mafia can simply stay on leaders good books. While the town can do nothing but blindly follow the leaders leadership.

Or we can do a democracy. We all talk up, battle our ideas. And get completely confused. That way we avoid having a incompetent leader.

In both ways we ought to talk up.

Currently we are taking the orthodox approach.

Now when I started typing this, this post had a purpose. Now I forgot what it was.. So just skip through..

I've decided that I am convinced by Pizza's defense of 'khann; I'm not necessarily going to agree with his bandwagon suggestions and vote accordingly, but I do admire the fact that he's stood up and taken charge of things. At this early a stage in the game, there isn't much to go on, and I was suspicious of him for what I am assured is typical behaviour.

unvote: Yaseikhaan

I've been mulling the thread over, taking into consideration those killed and the votes that have been cast, and a few things stand out as suspicious to me. The one unshakable thing is Methos' unvoting of Renata in the previous day phase... why?

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Originally Posted by Methos

DE's argument does make sense, both both for and against him. For now, I'll lean Unvote/Vote: Renata.

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Initially he claims to support Diamondeye's arguments, although he doesn't clarify why, and he votes for Renata accordingly.

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Originally Posted by Methos

I realize this is going to look suspicious, but I'm heading out for work soon, so will more then likely miss the update.

Unvote: Renata

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Now consider this post; he states that he is aware his actions are going to look suspicious, but he unvotes regardless. He does not place his vote elsewhere, either, despite stating that he feels Diamond could have been mafia too. What is the reasoning behind unvoting as such?

I miss most game updates/write-ups in the Gameroom because the hosts tend to be American and they're posting at least five hours behind Greenwich Meantime. Most of these updates tend to come in the evening, which I inevitably miss because I'm usually asleep at 4am GMT, but you do not see me unvoting, particularly if it is "going to look suspicious".

In short, I don't see a need to unvote if he was sure that Renata was guilty, and if he was not, he had professed Diamond was suspicious, so surely a vote in that direction would have been plausible.

Currently I can only think of three reasons behind this behaviour:

- Methos and Renata are the mafia; in an attempt at distancing himself he joined the arguments against Renata, but knowing that he had to head out to work, he couldn't be certain that his vote wouldn't lead to his scum buddie's death, so he unvoted to be sure. He posted "I know this is gonna look suspicious" in order to dissipate some of the pressure that he might face, then leaves the thread until the next day; his scum buddy survives by a single vote.

- Methos is the mafia, Renata is not; he voted in an attempt to blend in with the crowd, but realised that someone like Renata is a bad enemy to have; she's more than capable of picking apart an argument/vote and he perhaps wanted a townie on-side. She is saved from trouble by that single vote.

- Methos is simply town drawing attention to himself and I'm blowing everything out of proportion.

I'll concede that it's a possibility, but that unvote has been bugging me for the last few days and I'd like answers.

vote: Methos

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Originally Posted by Secura

I've decided that I am convinced by Pizza's defense of 'khann; I'm not necessarily going to agree with his bandwagon suggestions and vote accordingly, but I do admire the fact that he's stood up and taken charge of things. At this early a stage in the game, there isn't much to go on, and I was suspicious of him for what I am assured is typical behaviour.

unvote: Yaseikhaan

I've been mulling the thread over, taking into consideration those killed and the votes that have been cast, and a few things stand out as suspicious to me. The one unshakable thing is Methos' unvoting of Renata in the previous day phase... why?



Initially he claims to support Diamondeye's arguments, although he doesn't clarify why, and he votes for Renata accordingly.



Now consider this post; he states that he is aware his actions are going to look suspicious, but he unvotes regardless. He does not place his vote elsewhere, either, despite stating that he feels Diamond could have been mafia too. What is the reasoning behind unvoting as such?

I miss most game updates/write-ups in the Gameroom because the hosts tend to be American and they're posting at least five hours behind Greenwich Meantime. Most of these updates tend to come in the evening, which I inevitably miss because I'm usually asleep at 4am GMT, but you do not see me unvoting, particularly if it is "going to look suspicious".

In short, I don't see a need to unvote if he was sure that Renata was guilty, and if he was not, he had professed Diamond was suspicious, so surely a vote in that direction would have been plausible.

Currently I can only think of three reasons behind this behaviour:

- Methos and Renata are the mafia; in an attempt at distancing himself he joined the arguments against Renata, but knowing that he had to head out to work, he couldn't be certain that his vote wouldn't lead to his scum buddie's death, so he unvoted to be sure. He posted "I know this is gonna look suspicious" in order to dissipate some of the pressure that he might face, then leaves the thread until the next day; his scum buddy survives by a single vote.

- Methos is the mafia, Renata is not; he voted in an attempt to blend in with the crowd, but realised that someone like Renata is a bad enemy to have; she's more than capable of picking apart an argument/vote and he perhaps wanted a townie on-side. She is saved from trouble by that single vote.

- Methos is simply town drawing attention to himself and I'm blowing everything out of proportion.

I'll concede that it's a possibility, but that unvote has been bugging me for the last few days and I'd like answers.

vote: Methos

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That is... well, that's convincing. Better case than Renata at the moment, definitely. And even still, it supports the Renata case as well. I'm going for it.

Unvote: Renata
Vote: Methos

Edit to ATPG:

I am opposed to random lynches because they are rather unreliable, and I am far from the only one. Obviously there are only two scummy people in this game, yet khaan has more critics than supporters. Are we all somehow scummy?

Also, no matter what justification you give for voting me... it's still hypocritical because it's based on a justification or a suspicion, and not on randomness. ~;p

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Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

How well do you think we would do if we did indeed lynch a random person every day? In order for the mafia to win, they would have had to have not been selected by random.org every single phase of the game. I don't know about you.... but I think the odds are in our favor. I like them. I like those odds.

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Whilst worth considering that we lose 2 people each night, the chances of killing both aren't that good, especially given that random votes easily become biased when a rubbish reason is put in front of it, which then leads to pre-mediated votes.

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Originally Posted by Chaotix

That is... well, that's convincing. Better case than Renata at the moment, definitely. And even still, it supports the Renata case as well. I'm going for it.

Unvote: Renata
Vote: Methos

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I'm unsure if your vote counts because the post has been edited, but feel free to shoot me down for that one if I'm wrong. :3

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Originally Posted by Thermal Mercury

Whilst worth considering that we lose 2 people each night, the chances of killing both aren't that good, especially given that random votes easily become biased when a rubbish reason is put in front of it, which then leads to pre-mediated votes.

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I feel like I am not articulating my point. I wouldn't follow someone based on their "reasoning" this early in the game, because their reasoning is nonsense. It's trying to make a guessing game into something scientific when it isn't.

The chances of killing both mafia increase substantially when we don't buy into their bullspit. Randomness negates that. Who decides what is random? I don't know. roll the dice, pick a card. Whoever suggests that someone dies based on no reasoning should end up dead later. Therefore I trust their opinion as far as I can hang their soon-to-be lifeless body. That's my system.

When others suggest "well I dunno... maybe they are mafia and they are just trying to lead us to death" I think people are totally, totally ignoring all my posts regarding how completely dumb it is for someone to suggest that we should follow them, when the caveat for me following them is that I will personally work to make sure they end up dead later on. And I would hope you all would as well.

This is a tactic. You can agree or disagree with it, vote me to death for it, ignore it... but please don't mischaracterize it.

But, I've explained myself as best I can. I now feel like I'm beating it to death by even talking about it.

I don't tally votes until I close voting, so edited posts are fine. Just don't be sneaky and edit a post from 18 hours ago or something to put a vote in.

-edit- Let's make it an hour to I close voting.