Chess - Game Thread [Concluded]

A 1x Strongman? The scumteam would bus the crap out of that.

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Originally Posted by Zack

You said you thought there was a wolf bussing.

Who is it in your opinion? Chox?

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I do think so. I believe in my posts I covered it, but I will go back, re-assess, and go into more detail.

The others on that wagon looked good. Csargo iffy as stated, but I wouldn't start with him. Give him a little space.

Choxorn I think is absolutely the next person to be pressed and thought about. No auto lynch, but seriously look at all his posts for motive.

A lot of other good people who hunt well that I trust were on this one. If you're town, you were also all over it, iirc, so please look.

Also look to see if he's somehow a townie. It's bad if we get overconfident and forget to look for reasons why that could be the case as well.

While GH and i go as way back when it comes to mafia so long as Org and mafia. I think my old friend needs now real scrutiny. I sensed real reluctancy when it came to lynching Logic and with 4 scum in 17 players they really could have tried to manipulate this first vote.

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Originally Posted by Zack

You certainly did not express strong feelings on Logic.

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That's my point. So why would I suddenly develop strong feelings if nothing had changed?

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Originally Posted by Zack

What should I have done? Sit on my butt?

I don't care if you don't like how I play, you're not the first nor the last. But I don't buy that you think it makes me a wolf.

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Trying to switch wagons away from someone who has done basically nothing towny up to that point (not that there was that much scumminess IMO, just a lack of anything good) to someone who at worst, hadn't cleared himself that much doesn't strike you as a highly suspicious action? Like, it really came across as a desperate attempt to save a buddy in a way that wouldn't make you look as bad if he still flipped (because people would ask why scum would try and CFD onto a completely random lynch rather than a closer wagon). Even so, you calling for a CFD wasn't enough for me to start scumreading you, what set me off is how you decided that me disliking the idea of a CFD at all, after having held that opinion in every single mafia game I have ever played, was somehow scummy.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

That's my point. So why would I suddenly develop strong feelings if nothing had changed?

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That's not what I said.

You never had any strong feelings, on anything. You stirred the pot and watched the chaos.

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Originally Posted by reinoe

A 1x Strongman? The scumteam would bus the crap out of that.

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Yeah, especially if they were pretty forced to by a big push.

It's quite useful, but not useful enough. Worth arguing in defense of, but I wouldn't bet the whole wolf team on stopping such a lynch.

Pizza, how does the abortive CFD attempt fit into your current worldview? Do you think that it makes GH or Zack more scummy, or that it's NAI, or something else?

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Originally Posted by Zack

That's not what I said.

You never had any strong feelings, on anything. You stirred the pot and watched the chaos.

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I called it as I saw it. You were the one dipping your stirring rod or whatever.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Trying to switch wagons away from someone who has done basically nothing towny up to that point (not that there was that much scumminess IMO, just a lack of anything good) to someone who at worst, hadn't cleared himself that much doesn't strike you as a highly suspicious action? Like, it really came across as a desperate attempt to save a buddy in a way that wouldn't make you look as bad if he still flipped (because people would ask why scum would try and CFD onto a completely random lynch rather than a closer wagon). Even so, you calling for a CFD wasn't enough for me to start scumreading you, what set me off is how you decided that me disliking the idea of a CFD at all, after having held that opinion in every single mafia game I have ever played, was somehow scummy.

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You can't see why, immediately after a CFD absolutely devastated your wolf team in a recent game, you getting seemingly antsy and belligerent at the mere thought of a cfd might seem odd to me?

It's not how I treat wolf partners, anyway. Look at any wolf game of mine, if someone is struggling like Logic and never going to recover I cut them loose.

Your sudden paranoia seems contrived.

afk for awhile

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Originally Posted by Kagemusha

While GH and i go as way back when it comes to mafia so long as Org and mafia. I think my old friend needs now real scrutiny. I sensed real reluctancy when it came to lynching Logic and with 4 scum in 17 players they really could have tried to manipulate this first vote.

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I think a deep vet wolf might have argued for a reprieve and I will look at GH more seriously.

I still need to find which person I'm accusing is townie, particularly if I have more than one. Accuracy is super important to continue the opening success.

Give you my opinion. I feel like in Zack or GH I let a scumbag infiltrate my town, but I haven't completely flushed the idea that either could be town. Maybe both somehow.

It has to be done correctly. Both are really good players I don't want to die without giving them a chance to really get their hooks into this game, if town.

Why are they town is an important question to consider, not just how can I suspect them. I have reason to suspect many people but not all can be scum.

Who is a townie you'd save from death and why are they a townie/

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Trying to switch wagons away from someone who has done basically nothing towny up to that point (not that there was that much scumminess IMO, just a lack of anything good) to someone who at worst, hadn't cleared himself that much doesn't strike you as a highly suspicious action? Like, it really came across as a desperate attempt to save a buddy in a way that wouldn't make you look as bad if he still flipped (because people would ask why scum would try and CFD onto a completely random lynch rather than a closer wagon). Even so, you calling for a CFD wasn't enough for me to start scumreading you, what set me off is how you decided that me disliking the idea of a CFD at all, after having held that opinion in every single mafia game I have ever played, was somehow scummy.

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I'm still not sure how to interpret the CFD thing. At first I thought Zack was trolling me.

As far as saving Logic, I doubt any of this was with the expectation that you would genuinely be lynched. At least, I don't think Zack-scum would go so wild.

You had a slip - or a logical gap - but the whole exchange was so dramatic at the last minute as to seem pre-planned...

But then what's the point?

And you and Winston were rock-solid Logic voters from early on.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Pizza, how does the abortive CFD attempt fit into your current worldview? Do you think that it makes GH or Zack more scummy, or that it's NAI, or something else?

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I don't think you'd ever argue for a CFD.

I think you and I were both town, or I was scum and you were town, and I tried to get you to CFD someone, or GH did, or... I mean I've seen you refuse to cfd before. It would be weird here if you advocated for it or went along with it.

Even if you were scum I think that sticks out your neck too much for a partner who has third degree pizza oven burns. And I don't really think you're scum.

I had an iffy post from you that I decided was just an odd vibe that I could explain.

I haven't seriously thought about you as a wolf this game. I don't see a big reason to start now, but if you were somehow scum I'd not be able to see it at this point I don't think, so I'd have to leave space for someone to make such an argument.

I'm already putting the brakes on people putting too much stock into my opinion. I can have a good read and suck on another. No one finds the entire wolf team day one and certainly not the king of bad day ones. I'm scum reading some townie. I think I'm scum reading scums too but the game is solved by finding all 4 not just 1, and not wasting a ton of townie lives rushing the rest of the process.

I also haven't read the posts after my last one before the flip because I was seriously nervous and couldn't handle it anymore.

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Originally Posted by Zack

You can't see why, immediately after a CFD absolutely devastated your wolf team in a recent game, you getting seemingly antsy and belligerent at the mere thought of a cfd might seem odd to me?

It's not how I treat wolf partners, anyway. Look at any wolf game of mine, if someone is struggling like Logic and never going to recover I cut them loose.

Your sudden paranoia seems contrived.

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I wouldn't describe that game as recent, at all. It's recent in org terms, but I've played many more games on MU since then and TBH had forgotten most of the details from then. The only part I remembered was when I was on the chopping block, trying to start a CFD on Monty to try and get out of the lynch. I had misremembered and thought that my lynch had been a consistent push throughout the day, and so, I had it in my head that the only role CFDs had in that game was to almost save the mafia. I also did not know that you would not try to save scumbuddies in this situation.

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I'm bored.

Vote: Choxorn

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Vote: Dp101

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I'm parking my vote on you tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by El Barto

So why are you not voting somebody of whom you are highly suspicious?

If you need help with British idioms, ask Winston, but I will say that this is very boring of you.

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Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I wouldn't describe that game as recent, at all. It's recent in org terms, but I've played many more games on MU since then and TBH had forgotten most of the details from then. The only part I remembered was when I was on the chopping block, trying to start a CFD on Monty to try and get out of the lynch. I had misremembered and thought that my lynch had been a consistent push throughout the day, and so, I had it in my head that the only role CFDs had in that game was to almost save the mafia. I also did not know that you would not try to save scumbuddies in this situation.

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Xcom on mu

reinoe, if I die will you carry my candle and make sure someone isn't forgotten about for me?

I'll let you know who it is by end of night. I just want one good read I'm pretty sure about to not completely vanish.

If you just blatantly disagree with it that's fine, you can decline. There are other ways someone can die even if there's a doc.

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

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Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

reinoe, if I die will you carry my candle and make sure someone isn't forgotten about for me?

I'll let you know who it is by end of night. I just want one good read I'm pretty sure about to not completely vanish.

If you just blatantly disagree with it that's fine, you can decline. There are other ways someone can die even if there's a doc.

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I'm flattered. I'll do my best. Shouldn't you select someone who's more familiar with site meta etc though?

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Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

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How so?

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you have joined ranks with three other individuals

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Is this normal? Do players normally get told how many scum are in the game?

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Originally Posted by reinoe

How so?

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You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

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Originally Posted by Zack

@Askthepizzaguy only, oog

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Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

OOG

I really really don't like getting your alignment wrong and I'm deeply aware of how much it must suck for me to push on you and also be lock town.

I know if you're scum I have to push you, but that doesn't mean I like it, and I'd really still like to have a good town/town mindmeld game.

I just can't do it based purely of a meta of wanting to do it. I gotta follow my heart as much as it sucks, man.

I regret that we don't mindmeld or rand town together often. I know you've heard me say that before and then push you to death, but in every case, I'm just trying to be true and play the game.

Those things are being considered and it's painful when I feel like I have to ignore them. If this game didn't involve other people who might have a bad time if I'm wrong / push them too hard, I'd be less nervous about my own play.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Pizza, how does the abortive CFD attempt fit into your current worldview? Do you think that it makes GH or Zack more scummy, or that it's NAI, or something else?

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Ok I read up.

It is suspicious but not proof. Look to their body of work, motives, determine if either are town, neither are town, or both are town. Look into each instance with a clear head and try to strip your own confirm bias out of your assessment.

Think with a clear head, both have a great day one for analysis purposes. If we are the jedi we claim to be, we can use the force to sense the dark side is or is not present based on what they've given us.

I like to be able to analyze people who give me something, Zack and GH have both played the game, and well imo, did their jobs regardless of whatever team they are on, tried to win for their team regardless of alignment, and deserve a good and fair look.

If we're good, we can now solve them. That should be half the point of being a talker style player.

We have a dead wolf, we have spew, we can look for motive, we can try to find their process if either or both are town. We have the power and they gave it to us.

Yes, both cfd attempts look really bad from both. But they've given us so much we cannot damn them on that alone.

GH often does the cfd. He can do it as both alignments. Zack has done them as well. Sometimes they are pro-town.

Look for other reasons and other clues. Were they doing it to fight for town? Look at everything else they've done to determine that.

I give snap reads and change my mind on a dime but those are reads. A real process still must take place when we have the space to do that process. Now's a good time.

https://i.makeagif.com/media/5-07-2014/Xwi0ha.gif

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Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

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This post also looks bad:

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Originally Posted by reinoe

A 1x Strongman? The scumteam would bus the crap out of that.

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Scum Reinoe would for sure say this to try to direct attention at the Logic wagon if there wasn't any bussing.

If there is bussing, OTOH, I'd say it's Csargo and/or Slaan. Winston looks townie af to me, and I also lean town on Kagemusha and Pizza.

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Originally Posted by reinoe

Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

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How so?

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Originally Posted by reinoe

I'm flattered. I'll do my best. Shouldn't you select someone who's more familiar with site meta etc though?

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Let the meta knowledge people solve by meta.

I often go to other forums and read people better because I don't have the meta, I have generic meta and I see something is scummy and others can write it off because they always do something similar, and miss the forest for the trees. Similar is not the same. Don't let scummy things happen just because they match a person's meta in a similar sense.

You won't be bogged down by such biases, you should be able to be more objective.

Plus, in spite of some folks pushing you, I feel like I got your alignment right and quickly based on your posts and vote movements, targets, and arguments. I think I let a scum into my town and I don't think it's you, so this is where I'm putting it. Plus Winston is in danger and is a decent alternative doc target tonight imo and they can't cover both.

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Well I think this is the towniest he’s ever been in any game I’ve played with him. I haven’t gone through and checked in what ways it is different, but just because someone’s different doesn’t make them scum.

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With apologies to Dp101, this post really dialed up my suspicions of Zack.

The meld with pizza was at its strongest at that moment, and the difference between our models of Zack's mind and the one Dp was using felt significant.

As pizza (iirc) said early in the game, Dp has all the potential in the world (champs wildcard less than a year after first contact says a lot), but his mental models of scumplay are still a little shallow.

And when it comes to Zack, who is the best scumbag I've ever had the privilege of playing with or against, it's really only in the contrast between layers that any kind of tell is likely to show.

If he is scum here, though, then he's exploring new levels of sophistication. That I think it's possible at all shows just how highly I rate him.

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Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

With apologies to Dp101, this post really dialed up my suspicions of Zack.

The meld with pizza was at its strongest at that moment, and the difference between our models of Zack's mind and the one Dp was using felt significant.

As pizza (iirc) said early in the game, Dp has all the potential in the world (champs wildcard less than a year after first contact says a lot), but his mental models of scumplay are still a little shallow.

And when it comes to Zack, who is the best scumbag I've ever had the privilege of playing with or against, it's really only in the contrast between layers that any kind of tell is likely to show.

If he is scum here, though, then he's exploring new levels of sophistication. That I think it's possible at all shows just how highly I rate him.

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I feel victimised right here ;-;

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Originally Posted by Zack

@Askthepizzaguy only, oog

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I've looked back at that game some

I remembered wrong

You were pretty damn fair to me, even while visor was losing his mind wanting you to go after me harder

:iloveyou:

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I just reached the part where you fake-claimed masons with a wolf, and made a huge push for me because "information" and "Zack's suggestions have been bad for town" (when I was defending villagers and pushing wolves).

:stare:

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I feel victimised right here ;-;

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:shame:

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I feel victimised right here ;-;

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You're beloved, keep playing with us.

Sith Lords are really good at looking like your best friend until they drop the mask, whip out the red saber, and turn up the force lightning.

If you're getting the sensation that this is happening to you this game, I think it's really possible.

Some people are really good at crawling inside your town spot. Keep that saber up to defend yourself. That's more important than finding scums, is just keeping them away from your inner circle of trust and sneaking past you.

Find townies but be right on those, that's important. Always re-assess, they're playing to get inside your town. And you'd be amazed at how townie some people can look to do it.

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Originally Posted by Zack

I just reached the part where you fake-claimed masons with a wolf, and made a huge push for me because "information" and "Zack's suggestions have been bad for town" (when I was defending villagers and pushing wolves).

:stare:

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I have bad games. Only for the grace of being an actual mason was I worth anything that game, iirc.

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Originally Posted by Choxorn

https://i.makeagif.com/media/5-07-2014/Xwi0ha.gif



This post also looks bad:



Scum Reinoe would for sure say this to try to direct attention at the Logic wagon if there wasn't any bussing.

If there is bussing, OTOH, I'd say it's Csargo and/or Slaan. Winston looks townie af to me, and I also lean town on Kagemusha and Pizza.



How so?

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Quick note: Choxorn and reinoe probably not partners.

If both wagons are scum, then the distinctive scenarios are 1 choxorn voter and 1 logic voter, 1 wagon-voter and 1 low-post/off-wagon, or 2 low-post/off-wagon. I'll flesh that out later.

I think I need calm down time and then sleepy time before I can do more heavy lifting.

I might still be around because obsessive but don't expect me in real time or interaction and this might be my last post of the night.

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Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

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OK COOL. But Chox is likely scum so I'm not worried about it.

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Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Let the meta knowledge people solve by meta.

I often go to other forums and read people better because I don't have the meta, I have generic meta and I see something is scummy and others can write it off because they always do something similar, and miss the forest for the trees. Similar is not the same. Don't let scummy things happen just because they match a person's meta in a similar sense.

You won't be bogged down by such biases, you should be able to be more objective.

Plus, in spite of some folks pushing you, I feel like I got your alignment right and quickly based on your posts and vote movements, targets, and arguments. I think I let a scum into my town and I don't think it's you, so this is where I'm putting it. Plus Winston is in danger and is a decent alternative doc target tonight imo and they can't cover both.

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OK makes sense.

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Originally Posted by Choxorn

How so?

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Because El Barto went AFK and then pops up two minutes after the lynch. The timing makes it seem like he was around but didn't want his presence to be known.

Btw in case anyone is still having reservations: pizza is town 100%. Not only due to his read+flip, but his last posts are 100% the post villiager that's hyped that his read panned out :)

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

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Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

If chox isn't scum, reinoe's position on his wagon looks bad.

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Originally Posted by reinoe

How so?

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Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

You joined right when it looked like it might actually beat out the Logic wagon.

This is similar to what made me think chox was bussing: he voted Logic right when I felt sure the wagon was going the distance.

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See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

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Originally Posted by reinoe

Wolfy pop-in by El Barto

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for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way. :book2:

so we're sheeping pizza right

still think zack's town, still think dp's probably town

No sheeping. Get reads yourself and follow those... we need everyone to put in work so everyone can be sorted.

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Originally Posted by El Barto

See post #1137

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Typo fixed.

That "cfd" attempt onto either Monty or dp101, both of those attempts look godawful.

Think both targets are strongly townie.

I had town leans or strong town leans on both Zack and GH at one point but this is not two townies interacting, as I'm reading this.

I don't seriously think they believed the cfd attempt would work, given the time frame and the fact that we're on the org, and who might have been online at the time. I don't think they thought they could really save Logic, I think more serious attempts at that were made by both over the course of the round, in their own unique styles.

Here, I think they didn't know what to do and both choxorn and logic look like correct lynches, and that they both look like butt for defending Logic, so the play was confusion, stick to their meta of being in favor of cfds so they could at least look like they had no idea a scum was about to flip.

Plus there's always a chance some townie moves off of Logic and choxorn becomes snipe bait. If choxorn is town, this is a good way to destroy all of the positive progress being made on d1, and if he's scum, this at least is some kind of attempt at confusion.

I think both were at a loss for a better move under the circumstances. Just flat out pushing choxorn over Logic even if choxorn is town isn't a great play in the long term because Logic really looked bad by the end of that day and he'd probably have been revisited on choxorn's town flip especially with end of day shenanigans.

I don't think the random cfd attempts were significantly worse, and certainly less straightforward and readable, than simply pushing a more sincere-looking alternative to either, or just plugging away at the hope choxorn dies.

I really don't buy some of their suspects and the reasons why, and their arguments for why Logic was town were scummy. The dp push from both just makes me feel gross when looking at it.

I'll still go back and iso both, try to look at things from a body of work perspective, but I am sensing a lot more interest in chaos and unreadability and trying to make day one worthless than actual solving from both, particularly as the day wound down.

If either or both are townies I have my work cut out for me, and we all do, because it's quite bad on several re-reads.

I also gotta say, both of their posts after the flip felt awkward, like they weren't really sure what the town reaction should be to that. I don't want to read too much into that or give it a lot of weight, but I was all gung ho to give them both a shot at looking townie, and I am seriously wondering how either one has credibility at this point.

It wasn't lolcatting but it sure felt like desperation and trickery rather than sincere towning.

I think both have too much experience being scums to collapse in such a way so visibly or dramatically, but I'm having a hard time denying what I'm looking at.

I really had better sleep, and focus on town-building when I wake up. All of this seems too easy but it doesn't feel townie either. Don't know what to make of it.

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Originally Posted by Logic

One seemingly random vote for something very minuscule, and not related to the game? Yeah, I thought it was a tell. Especially since I don't see Slaan as a wolf.

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Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

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Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

For starters, off the top of my head:

I've observed Zack being a somewhat relaxed version of his usual self, making me want to keep poking him until the cracks show.

I've observed pizza doing the kind of thing that tends to put him under suspicion on D1 as town, but with a certain knowingness about it that makes me question just how many layers he's working through.

I've observed Dp101 looking like his awkward townie self.

I've observed GH playing it cool, but giving hints of underlying reservation.

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Dang.

What level are you on, Winston? I feel like you complete me.

I am about ready to put dp101 as my fourth non-me lock townie. Not as easy as just reading Logic but the read is just too powerful and it's a body of work style read.

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

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Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

---

Well I'm obv lock town, such are you. Without having reread anything I'd also put Kage high up in my town pile, liked his interactions in general and that he was rather anti-Logic iirc is also good. Winston I don't have much on my mind, would have to reread. Want to add dp as basically lock town, he not only didnt join the CFD that might've saved logic but also argued against it in such a simple (and overall imo wrong) way that I don't ever see ever a wolf doing it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

I am about ready to put dp101 as my fourth non-me lock townie. Not as easy as just reading Logic but the read is just too powerful and it's a body of work style read.

---

Oh yea there you go... didnt see that before my post nice.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by El Barto

See post #1337 (naturally, made by yours truly). But reinoe thinks I'm a bit scummy

for attempting a bit of mafia-hunting in my own particularly flavourful way. :book2:

---

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy

Speaking of town building, Kagemusha is also in the same category as Winston Hughes, untouchable until like final 3. Logic spewed them both townie. The little bit of passive aggressiveness toward Kage happened before the WH pass-agg.

And Slaan. Slaan kicking it up a notch by pointing out Logic had no real basis for town reading him makes Slaan untouchable as well by interaction analysis, which also matches the body of work done by Kage, Winston, and Slaan this game.

I feel like those guys are your top 3 townies overall, in terms of strength of the read.

Does anyone have cause to disagree with that? If you do, I don't want to hear "because X is townier". I want to know why any of these three could be considered suspects now. Do good work before presenting your findings, it needs to be correct and change the minds of a skeptical audience if it is.

If you look at any of these three, what did they do this game that doesn't appear townie? How is Logic interacting with them in a way that looks guilty?

If you agree with these reads I also want that feedback. If town gets to be a certain size that's GG and we already have three people who should survive the night between the four of us who look lock town. So I feel like this is a good base, and we build off of the base.

Just looking for outlier opinions before I continue.

---

I'm good with this. Also, thanks for looking back over the CFD attempt for me, I thought it looked pretty bad and I'm thankful that someone else agrees.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fredwood

Nice Work, sorry I missed EOD was asleep, with work weekends are rough. I can put Pizza with Slaan in the town pile. I'll put Winston there for now as well.

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

Bart would be priority I think, GH, DP, and Zack had interesting EoD's as well. It feels too clunky for GH as a wolf, but that's the same feeling a have for a lot of his day 1, it was a lot of clunk, I have to admit I'm twisting in the wind a bit on developing a read on him.

---

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Choxorn

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

---

I know I'm not him, but I don't necessarily have problems with this right now. Reinoe has had very inconsistent tone between his posts, and there isn't that much clearing him. I'll have to reread EOD first though because I need to confirm whether or not Logic's flip clears you at all.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Choxorn

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

---

1337 15 743 83773|2 /V|_||\/|83l2 740|_|64

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Csargo

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

---

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

Drifting in an out of this game as other things catch my attention, but.

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

I think I can only lock Winston Slaan Kage and dp right now, but I think all of the above three have enough where I could and potentially should find enough to lock them as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fredwood

I don't care about your suss on Logic aside from the fact that you're not pushing him. My issue is you pushing Zack over logic because "Zack" didn't talk to logic. You're saying logic is scum, therefore Zack is scum because he's avoiding logic. Well get logic lynched first then go after Zack.

---

This was another good bit. I commented on it the first time but it bears repeating on Logic's flip.

This is pretty good. Not enough for a lock but serious consideration given. Will ISO in the morning. It is the morning, so after sleep.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by reinoe

No, I'm not saying logic is scum therefore zack is scum.

1. Logic is scum independently of Zack.

2. Zack has talked to everything that moves except logic. Therefore they're either masons/scum/neighbors. I stated this once already. Either way they're talking to each other OOT and thus have no reason to talk in thread.

3. Zack is scummy independent of Zack.

They are not necessarily scum together but somehow they are talking to each other.

---

I also want reinoe in the eventual town lineup, need to do the work to prove it first. This observation feels quite townie on Logic's flip. It could be a bridge too far, but I can't discount it. More important to me is if reinoe is scum/faking this post and I don't think so.

Keeping in mind my strong town read on Monty, the next tier is comprised of the following lock town candidates.

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

I have opinions and leans on the rest but nothing below is nearly as solid as the above.

If all 8 of the above are correct, I think I only need one more?

9 lock townies and 7 suspects is a solve, is it not? Or do I have my math wrong. Brain getting fuzzy. I literally just did it on my fingers and somehow I am still not sure I have that right. When the number of townies is two more than the number of lynches and the townies are all correct that's a solve, yes?

remaining:

GH
Csargo
El Barto
Zack
Cuthillius <---town lean
Manasi
Choxorn
Xiahou <--- town lean

And of those I wouldn't push Xiahou or Cuth, but I'd have to do a lot of diligent work on both before crowning them town. I had a good read on Cuth as being townie at one point too, but I feel like the others above are a tier above Cuth.

Ahh passing out by now. Yeah I really gotta stop here.

I think I could find one more townie if I had the time/energy. But because you can't let even one scum into the circle, I really have to put in serious work on fred/reinoe/monty/ ninth candidate.

Bah posting this, not even gonna look over it for mistakes.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Choxorn

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

---

Don't think so.

reinoe is maybe a never sell to me and I'm considering him for the next batch of town locks. What do you have on him?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Csargo

I mean that Zack/GH cfd is the mafia equivalent of shooting themselves in the foot if they're scum, it had a very small probability of being successful. Coupled with the fact they chose Dp101 as their target probably lowered their probability of success. Plus the amount of votes they would have had to gather to top Logic's total makes it an almost impossible feat. They're both definitely capable of defending themselves in the aftermath, but I don't think it's likely they're scum together, and even one being scum seems unlikely to me. Even if they were successful they would have bought Logic a night phase, don't think it's worth it for that.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

---

This is an important setup. The question may hold the key to the game.

If that was scum behavior, then it was either anti-spew or lolcatting supreme like you don't see often outside of when Csargo got outed by Zack in Pokemon. And that was a totally different context with different people, lasting throughout a day rather than a few minutes of EOD.

If that's coordinated scum action, then how many layers of WIFOM are we talking? Assume 2 dead per round, we have 7 more lynches left. How does this help them survive 1 teammate down?

If only one of the two is scum, then trying to divine the rationale may be pointless; better off mechanically flipping or otherwise clearing one of the two through normal game course and process.

Pokemon GH, you could say, proved capable of risky EOD moves for no immediate payoff (he tied two townies IIRC), but that was tying the vote to produce confusion, not CFDing to protect a partner or otherwise. The crucial thing is that, aside from me, DP, and Slaan who were around to see it during EOD, he was only playing in a way that muddies his own image (as was Zack). They had the spotlight, and no one was implicated in anything, so you can't say it sets up scrutiny of a townie or furthers a mislynch down the line.
@Askthepizzaguy, I don't think I'm capable of doing analysis of Zack beyond gut reads. Could you look at that set of D1 content from Swords and Sorcery I collated? By the time of my posting that



Pizza's townies:

Lock
Askthepizzaguy
Winston Hughes
Slaan
Kagemusha
dp101

Candidate locks
Fredwood
reinoe
Monty

Let's see, there's no point in tinfoiling Pizza right now, Kage was solid on Logic throughout the day (as well as an early advocate of Pizza's case), and DP was 2nd or 3rd to join that wagon. If we had m/m wagons, these two even going only off timing are acceptable locks. Winston is kind of playing at high-level independently, and without checking also early on Logic (2nd?). Not sure if that's the case for Slaan, but off the top of my head my impression of Slaan is as insightful, helpful, and challenging in a consistent way, but there aren't notable single instances that ping me heavily towards one alignment or another. I was struck that smiley post reaching out to Choxorn earlier on, but purely by content it's NAI.

So I wouldn't lock Slaan, and having no "candidate locks" would place him in a 50%+ town (i.e. 75%+) category alongside Fred. Reinoe, may be turning out inconsistent like Viper in Pokemon, so as of now only a light town read.

Pizza's the-rest: Individuals need substantive treatment, but I don't have any new opinions on Manasi and Barto beyond null, and Xiahou hasn't had more than a couple posts. As for Csargo, I don't agree on how you're treating him for early D1, that even as he's doing just fine past the beginning of the game you pre-emptively rule out any opportunity for him to post himself into Town. Choxorn since EOD is unremarkable, sussing Reinoe so if that's where he's pushing the two less likely a team.

I still need to see how the EOD wagons can be anaylzed wrt this group.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pizza

There's way way more on Fred or reinoe or Monty than these excerpts, but they're representative of the posts I saw which put me toward town reading them.

---

[No Montmorency post quoted]

(;¬_¬)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Choxorn

You mean 1137? There's way less than 1337 posts right now.

Pizza- what are your thoughts on the possibility of a Zack/GH/Reinoe scumteam?

---

So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

---

My best guess is they got bored and were never really convinced Logic was scum, so they went in search of someone else. Awful idea in hindsight, but everything is an awful idea in hindsight. There's little chance they'd both do that as scum I don't think.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

But do you think their behaviour also makes sense as town? Because I agree that it's really risky and doesn't have much of a reward if they are both trying to just save Logic for one night, but like, if they are both innocent, what exactly were they thinking?

---

So to answer the first question, yeah I'd say it's probably more of a townie action than a scum action, however misguided it may have been.

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

I should have just searched for this while writing up the big post, but Slaan vote Logic Post 685, so that supports my initial impression that Slaan's Logic vote is not mechanically clearing to the extent that it is for the earlier votes by DP and Winston.

However, I should be clear that this difference is more one of order than of timing, since the Logic wagon after Pizza (Post
#193) and before EOD (#1086) was:


#227 - Reinoe (switched onto Zack soon after, had some other votes as well and never returned to Logic)

#401 - Kagemusha (switched to pressure Cuth #513, then back to Logic #796)
#511 - Winston (Changes to Barto #521, changes back to Logic #539 after Barto OMGUS votes, and stays there)
#585 - DP (changed to vote Zack during EOD chaos)
#685 - Slaan
#777 - Choxorn

#919 - I initiate Choxorn wagon

#1013 - Csargo



Now I realize why novice's tool exists, and is so useful... maybe I should start using it

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fredwood

Reinoe took a long time to have a reaction to my vote parking on him. Even though I said as much, they were never in danger of a lynch, and had been chill with it to that point, I had moved off some of the suss by that point. Was a strange reaction.

---

Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Winston Hughes

Vote: Choxorn

Vote with one of my top suspects on the counter-wagon to my #1 suspect?

:yes:

---

Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by reinoe

So you think in my 2nd or third post I pointed out the ZACK/LOGIC communications in an effort to game throw?

---

I actually forgot about that, to be honest, and that's a good point.

I still think some of your posts are a little questionable, but on re-read you overall look pretty good, and I don't really see you being scummates with Zack right now.

So, Zack/GH/? then.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kagemusha

Winston can you elaborate about this vote?

---

Make hay while the sun shines.

I was possibly even more confident than pizza about Logic being scum (because I knew I was on the level both in my support and in the independence of my reasons, whereas pizza couldn't be sure he wasn't just being sheeped), and almost certain he was getting lynched (if it had come into serious doubt, then I would put my thumb on the scale much more heavily).

Everything I did between stepping off the Logic wagon and stepping back on again was content generation, trying to leverage my confidence about the gamestate into more readable info for post-flip analysis.

None of which is to say that my suspicion of chox wasn't genuine, btw.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by reinoe

@Askthepizzaguy

earlier you repeatedly called Csargo scum. But haven't talked about him much since. Now that it's post-day do you still think Csargo is scum or do you think he's just awkward townie?

---

I don't know. At this point I don't trust a certain group of people, but I feel like I can more reliably find my townies.

Gonna do that. I could harp on and on endlessly about how scummy x y and z are, but I have too many so some of it is wrong.

I get the feeling if I go based on what looks scummy to me I could swing-and-a-miss on the next guess, and then we can get off track.

What do we know? Well some people look townie and they got there in a way that was well earned, and I feel like going through those one by one is my better bet. Make the town circle.

Because if Xiahou is scum, I'm not finding that in his posts so far. I might not before I die. If Manasi is scum, that might be based off of a post or two that felt wrong to me, but I don't have a strong case. If it's GH or Zack I can't tell which one right now, if it's both I don't know if I convince this crowd, see Csargo's argument for why.

I don't know if I can get what scum remain outside my town into a nice, tight lynching knot that's exactly right.

What I do think is that I can find 8 townies by midnight tonight, especially since I've got half of them and what I feel are good leads on 3 additional ones.

If I find that 8th townie, and if all are right, and I convince you guys not to eat each other when I die, shit like being unable to read Xiahou or Manasi or Zack or GH or Csargo or choxorn town when they are won't begin to matter.

It won't matter, it's still a win. Maybe a sloppy win, but when all the scums have left to do is count down to the day when their POE number comes up, that's gonna be extremely demoralizing. Like repeated punches to the stomach that knock all the wind out of 'em.

I need to start from square zero as not everyone is even gonna agree on the folks I think are the most obvious.

Let's walk you through it. Starting with the easiest town read, Winston. Which is not something you're oft to hear from my lips.

This will be for the people who don't think it's at all obvious, for them to look at and say why this isn't conclusive. Otherwise I'm just gonna state it like it's the alibi that proves he dinna do it and move on without too much elaboration and fanfare.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dp101

Care to provide opinions on my part and Zack's part in the whole affair, as well?

---

Lol not really, I'm having a hard enough time self-arguing WiFoM why scum GH makes that play there let alone with Zack Xposting with GH. Couple that with the the xpost on the push on me, if they are teammates, they have shit timing.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by reinoe

Even if you were asleep, the posts highlighted that you were indifferent to an El Barto/logic lynch even though they were your biggest scumreads. You made 3 or 4 posts but left a vote without doing anything with it. The town's most valuable tool is their vote so you shouldn't be dismissive about letting a vote sit around not doing anything. When it comes to "taking a long time to react", I can't re-read the game every five minutes. For vote parking to get noticed it has to sit there for awhile and there has to be context developed around it.

---

I wasn't indifferent, I said I was voting logic. Who at the time had 6 or 7 votes I believe, I'm not going to make it 8 with majority enabled and that much time left. There's being valuable with your tools and then being there's being irresponsible.

As to the second part, I had stated that I wasn't seriously considering voting you on day 1, but hadn't decided who to move to yet more then 2 actual days before your "reaction". Then I made my "Unfortunately" post about Logic almost 24 hours before your big red bold letter post about me.

So I'm not sure why you'd think you'd need to check every 5 minutes to know that I had my vote on you for like 56 hours.

(one more thing) I'd be more willing to buy the post as genuine if you had even mentioned GH as it was pretty clear that I had shifted on my progression on him to WW lean but didn't move my vote.

I don't think you can be wolf with Zack though, so there's that at least. I just would say I have Zack more villa then you atm.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Slaan

I have a simple theory about GH rn. The Wild West game on MU was in a similar D1 state if Chox is mafia with two mafia being in the crosshairs of town right from the start and both got killed in the first two days. GH was the third wolf this game and bussed the partner that died D2 on D1 but tried to get off him D2 and onto Fred instead... in the end nothing worked out quite right (though the game was very close till then end, ending with a coinflip costing GH the game)

Anyway, so now he looks at a similar game with 2 of his partners (potentially) being in towns crosshairs yet again.. and he doesnt want to be with his back against the wall again so he starts earlier to try and get town off his partners, delay their lynches if at all possible.

Thats my working theory anyway rn in regards to GH... though I would always lynch Chox over him tomorrow

---

Eh it's possible I guess. I just think if he's scum he knows bussing Logic there buys him no equity so better to take the contrarian stance to fuel WiFoM.

I don't see the CFD as an attempt to save Chox though, I mean it's only put Chox further in the towns crosshairs if anything, personally I was 100 percent null on Chox before reading EoD.

It might be possible that Chox and GH aren't aligned. (IE Bad GH tries to make the VillaChox lynch more likely to save his actual partner who could also be on the chopping block). However I'm already WIFOMing the hell out that. Anybody know if GH is Sicilian?